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Presentation given by Roderik van de Wal at the symposium on Sea Level Rise by TU Delft Climate Institute http://bit.ly/Y5dPvY
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11/30/12 1
Regional sea level projections and
attribution
Roderik van de WalIMAU Utrecht
Nov 2012
Contributions from: A. Slangen, C. Katsman, P. Leclercq, J. Gregory, B. Vermeersen
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Munk’s enigma (2002)
“The historic rise started too early, has too linear a trend, and is too large”
(about sea level rise in the 20th century)
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The global budget
IPCC AR4 2007 Gregory et al. in press
Blue: 1961-2003Brown:1993-2003
Recent insights show that due to increased thermal expansion and and increased contribution from glaciers the budget maybe closed
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Attribution
Global scale satisfying*no gap between explained and
observed“Local” scale
*Some regions convincing climate response with distinct
pattern*non-climate effects not to be
excluded
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Projections
Excluding the effect of recent dynamical changes in ice sheets
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How can ice change it’s mass
Butressing effect
Lubrication effect
CLIMATE
DYNAMICS
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How to calculate SLC?
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Predictions NL versus global
RCP8.5
Median
NL +10%
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Possibility for early warning systems sea
level rise
Gravity measurements
Radar altimetry
Ice velocitySource: Katsman (2011)
WU10Greenland
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Future developments
• Hazard risk assessment• Expert solicitation exercises• Deterministic improvements
