Regional and Global Regional and Global Preparedness for Global Preparedness for Global Warming ConsequencesWarming Consequences

ASEAN Day for Disaster Management (ADDM) ASEAN Day for Disaster Management (ADDM) Seminar: Challenges Ahead and the Way ForwardSeminar: Challenges Ahead and the Way Forward

24-25 September 20024-25 September 20077Bangkok, ThailandBangkok, Thailand

Kentaro Tamura, Ph.D.Kentaro Tamura, Ph.D.United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP)

OutlineOutline Problem StatementProblem Statement

• Mitigation and Adaptation Mitigation and Adaptation • Asia’s Vulnerability to Climate ChangeAsia’s Vulnerability to Climate Change

Global Preparedness Global Preparedness • International Climate Regime International Climate Regime • Adaptation Work in UNFCCC/Kyoto Adaptation Work in UNFCCC/Kyoto

ProtocolProtocol

Regional PreparednessRegional Preparedness• Issues and Status of Mainstreaming in Issues and Status of Mainstreaming in

AsiaAsia

Way ForwardWay Forward

Part 1: Problem Part 1: Problem StatementStatement

Mitigation and AdaptationMitigation and Adaptation Prompt and serious effortsPrompt and serious efforts to reduce to reduce

GHG emissions GHG emissions can mitigate the can mitigate the magnitude magnitude of negative impacts of climate of negative impacts of climate change. change.

However,However, Even the most stringent mitigation efforts Even the most stringent mitigation efforts

cannot avoid severe impactscannot avoid severe impacts of climate of climate changes in next few decades.changes in next few decades.

Thus, Thus, We urgently need to:We urgently need to:

• avoid the unmanageable avoid the unmanageable (through mitigation), (through mitigation), andand

• manage the unavoidable manage the unavoidable (through (through adaptation).adaptation).

Goal of AdaptationGoal of Adaptation

To improve capacity to cope withTo improve capacity to cope with• Current climate hazards (e.g., floods, Current climate hazards (e.g., floods,

droughts, cyclones)droughts, cyclones)• Established changes in climate (e.g., Established changes in climate (e.g.,

increasing temperature, decreasing increasing temperature, decreasing precipitation)precipitation)

• Specific anticipated changes in climate Specific anticipated changes in climate (e.g., 30 cm sea-level rise by 2025)(e.g., 30 cm sea-level rise by 2025)

• Unspecified anticipated changes (e.g., Unspecified anticipated changes (e.g., decreased revenues from tourism at the decreased revenues from tourism at the coastal zone or mountainous area) coastal zone or mountainous area)

Asia’s vulnerability to climate Asia’s vulnerability to climate change (1) change (1) (SPM WG II, IPCCC, 2007)(SPM WG II, IPCCC, 2007)

Climate change is projected to impinge on Climate change is projected to impinge on sustainable development of sustainable development of most most developing countries of Asiadeveloping countries of Asia..

Freshwater availabilityFreshwater availability particularly in particularly in large river basins is large river basins is projected to projected to decreasedecrease. It could adversely affect more . It could adversely affect more than a billion people in the 2050s. than a billion people in the 2050s.

Increase in agricultural water demandIncrease in agricultural water demand by 6-10% or more for every 1 centigradeby 6-10% or more for every 1 centigrade rise in temperature rise in temperature

Asia’s vulnerability to climate Asia’s vulnerability to climate change (2)change (2)

The The risk of hungerrisk of hunger is projected to remain is projected to remain very highvery high in several countries. Crop yields in several countries. Crop yields could decrease up to 30% in Central and could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia. South Asia.

Coastal areasCoastal areas will be at will be at greatest risk greatest risk due to increased floodingdue to increased flooding from the sea from the sea and in some mega-deltas flooding from the and in some mega-deltas flooding from the rivers. rivers.

Loss ofLoss of 2500 km2 2500 km2 mangroves mangroves in Asia with in Asia with 1m sea level rise1m sea level rise

Asia’s Vulnerability to Climate Asia’s Vulnerability to Climate Change (3)Change (3)

Coastalcommunities

Biodiversity &

Ecosystems

Infections,Disease &

Heat related mortality

WaterResources

Agriculture&

Forestry

Regional Economies

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Es

tim

ate

s

Source: CSIRO, 2006Based on 186 studies

Asia’s vulnerability to climate Asia’s vulnerability to climate change (4)change (4)

The design and implementation of The design and implementation of adaptation measures to address the adaptation measures to address the needs of vulnerable countries has needs of vulnerable countries has become more and more pressing.become more and more pressing.

⇒ ⇒ A key challengeA key challenge How and to what extent have How and to what extent have

international community and international community and Asian countries been preparing Asian countries been preparing for addressing climate change for addressing climate change consequences?consequences?

Part 2: Global Part 2: Global PreparednessPreparedness

International Climate Regime (1)International Climate Regime (1) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

((IPCC)IPCC)• Review scientific research and offer assessments of Review scientific research and offer assessments of

climate change and its impacts climate change and its impacts • 4 Assessment Reports 4 Assessment Reports

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ((UNFCCCUNFCCC) ) • Overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to tackle Overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to tackle

the challenge posed by climate changethe challenge posed by climate change• Near universal membership of 191 countries having Near universal membership of 191 countries having

ratifiedratified• Ultimate goal is toUltimate goal is to prevent “dangerous” human prevent “dangerous” human

intervention with the climate systemintervention with the climate system Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol to UNFCCC to UNFCCC

• Legally-binding emission reduction commitments for Legally-binding emission reduction commitments for Annex I Parties (developed countries)Annex I Parties (developed countries)

• First commitment period (2008-2012)First commitment period (2008-2012)• Discussions on post-2012 regime Discussions on post-2012 regime

International Climate Regime (2)International Climate Regime (2)

Group of Eight (Group of Eight (G8G8) Summit ) Summit • Climate change became a prime agenda for the Climate change became a prime agenda for the

Gleneagles Summit (2005) Gleneagles Summit (2005) • Gleneagles Dialogue Gleneagles Dialogue

Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (Development and Climate (APPAPP))• Launched in 2005Launched in 2005• US-led initiative, consisting of 6 countries US-led initiative, consisting of 6 countries

(Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and (Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and U.S.) producing half of the world’s GDPU.S.) producing half of the world’s GDP

• technology-oriented public-private partnershiptechnology-oriented public-private partnership Various multilateral, regional and bilateral Various multilateral, regional and bilateral

initiatives initiatives

19881988 1990 1990 1992 1992 1994 1994 1995 1995 1997 1997 2001 2001 　　　　20042004

US-led InitiativesUS-led Initiatives

Climate Regime at a GlanceClimate Regime at a Glance

COP1COP1 COP3COP3 COP7COP7UNFCCUNFCCCC

IPCCIPCC FARFAR SARSAR TARTAR

Kyoto Kyoto ProtocoProtoco

ll

MarrakecMarrakech Accordsh Accords

US US withdrawwithdraw

alal

20052005 2006 2006 　　　　　　　　　　 20072007 　　　　　　　　　　 20082008 　　　　　　　　 20092009 　　　　　　　　　　 20102010

　　　　　　　　　　 20112011 　 　　 　 20122012

G-8G-8: UK Russia Germany Japan Italy

Gleneagles Dialogue on Climate ChangeGleneagles Dialogue on Climate Change

Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APP)Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APP)

EU-ETS (Phase I)EU-ETS (Phase I) EU-ETS (Phase II)EU-ETS (Phase II)

Convention DialogueConvention Dialogue

COP11COP11 COP12 COP12 COP13 COP13

UN

FC

CC

COP/MOP1 COP/MOP2 COP/MOP3COP/MOP1 COP/MOP2 COP/MOP3

AWG on Annex I commitmentsAWG on Annex I commitments

First Commitment PeriodFirst Commitment Period

Article 9 (Review of Kyoto Protocol)Article 9 (Review of Kyoto Protocol)

Kyoto

Protocol

Other multilateral / bilateral / local initiativesOther multilateral / bilateral / local initiatives

Climate Regime at a GlanceClimate Regime at a Glance

AR4AR4IPCCIPCC

Other

forums

Follow-up?Follow-up?

Adaptation-related Articles in Adaptation-related Articles in UNFCCC (1)UNFCCC (1)

Article 4.1 (b), (e), and (f)Article 4.1 (b), (e), and (f)• Commitments for all Parties consider the Commitments for all Parties consider the

impacts of climate change in social, economic impacts of climate change in social, economic and environmental policies and actions. and environmental policies and actions.

Article 4.1 (g), (h), and (j)Article 4.1 (g), (h), and (j)• Requests for all Parties to cooperate, exchange Requests for all Parties to cooperate, exchange

and communicate information related to and communicate information related to implementation implementation

Articles 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.7, 4.8, and 4.9Articles 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.7, 4.8, and 4.9• Funding to assist developing countries in Funding to assist developing countries in

meeting various commitments of Article 4.1meeting various commitments of Article 4.1• Funding “incremental costs” of developing Funding “incremental costs” of developing

countries’ implementation of adaptation countries’ implementation of adaptation measuresmeasures

Adaptation-related Articles in Adaptation-related Articles in UNFCCC (2)UNFCCC (2)

Articles 4.8 and 4.9Articles 4.8 and 4.9• Support for small island developing countries, Support for small island developing countries,

countries with low-lying coastal areas, countries countries with low-lying coastal areas, countries prone to natural disasters, drought and prone to natural disasters, drought and desertification etc. and LDCsdesertification etc. and LDCs

Article 12.3Article 12.3• Request for developed countries to incorporate Request for developed countries to incorporate

details of measures taken under Article 4.3, 4.4, details of measures taken under Article 4.3, 4.4, and 4.5 in their National Communications. and 4.5 in their National Communications.

Article 21Article 21• Global Environment Facility (GEF) serves as the Global Environment Facility (GEF) serves as the

financial mechanism of the UNFCCC for both financial mechanism of the UNFCCC for both mitigation and adaptation. mitigation and adaptation.

Evolving Focus on Adaptation (1)Evolving Focus on Adaptation (1)

Compared with mitigation, Compared with mitigation, adaptationadaptation is is much less developed much less developed as an int’l policy response as an int’l policy response in in various ways.various ways.• Definition Definition • Policy objectivesPolicy objectives• Standard measuresStandard measures• Base year/baseline Base year/baseline • Legal, institutional structures Legal, institutional structures

Evolving Focus on Adaptation (2)Evolving Focus on Adaptation (2)However, However, EmergenceEmergence of adaptation of adaptation as a policy as a policy

prioritypriority at the int’l level at the int’l level• 2001: Third Assessment Report of IPCC2001: Third Assessment Report of IPCC

Climate change impacts are already becoming evident. Climate change impacts are already becoming evident.

• 2001 (COP7): Creation of funds2001 (COP7): Creation of funds Special Climate Change FundSpecial Climate Change Fund (SCCF): to finance (SCCF): to finance

both adaptation and mitigation activitiesboth adaptation and mitigation activities Least Development Countries FundLeast Development Countries Fund (LDCF): to (LDCF): to

finance the preparation and implementation of national finance the preparation and implementation of national adaptation programmes of action (NAPAs)adaptation programmes of action (NAPAs)

Adaptation FundAdaptation Fund: to finance adaptation project and : to finance adaptation project and programmes in developing countries ratifying the programmes in developing countries ratifying the Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol

Evolving Focus on Adaptation (3)Evolving Focus on Adaptation (3)

• 2002 (COP8): Delhi Declaration on 2002 (COP8): Delhi Declaration on Climate Change and Sustainable Climate Change and Sustainable DevelopmentDevelopment

Adaptation…is of Adaptation…is of high priority for all high priority for all countriescountries. .

• 2004 (COP10): Buenos Aires programme 2004 (COP10): Buenos Aires programme of work on adaptation and response of work on adaptation and response measuresmeasures

• 2006 (COP12): Nairobi work program on 2006 (COP12): Nairobi work program on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate changeclimate change

Evolving Focus on Adaptation (4)Evolving Focus on Adaptation (4) A series of A series of modest stepsmodest steps in terms of in terms of

effortsefforts to improve understanding of to improve understanding of vulnerability, impacts and adaptationvulnerability, impacts and adaptation

A question of how to implement and A question of how to implement and finance adaptation projects remains as a finance adaptation projects remains as a challenge. challenge. • Investments needed for adaptation are likely to Investments needed for adaptation are likely to

be be tens of billions of dollars per yeartens of billions of dollars per year several decades from now. several decades from now.

• Less likely to raise sufficient amountsLess likely to raise sufficient amounts, , especially if contributions are voluntary. especially if contributions are voluntary.

Adaptation Costs: Some EstimatesAdaptation Costs: Some Estimates

Costs of climate-proofing investments in Costs of climate-proofing investments in developing countries: USD 9-41 bn/yr developing countries: USD 9-41 bn/yr (World Bank)(World Bank)

Minimum costs of adaptation: USD 50 Minimum costs of adaptation: USD 50 bn/yr (Oxfam)bn/yr (Oxfam)• Additional costs: Additional costs:

Scaling up NGO community-based initiatives: $7.5 Scaling up NGO community-based initiatives: $7.5 bn/yrbn/yr

Scaling up urgent adaptation needs: $8-33 bn (total) Scaling up urgent adaptation needs: $8-33 bn (total) Other hidden costs Other hidden costs

USD 28-67 bn in 2030 (Smith, UNFCCC USD 28-67 bn in 2030 (Smith, UNFCCC Dialogue on Long-term Cooperative Dialogue on Long-term Cooperative Action) Action)

Financial Availability in the Current RegimeFinancial Availability in the Current Regime

Status as of Status as of April 2007April 2007

Type of Type of commit’tcommit’t

Total funds Total funds mobilizedmobilized

Unpaid Unpaid contribu-contribu-tions and tions and pledgespledges

Cumula-Cumula-tive funds tive funds collectedcollected

1. Special Climate 1. Special Climate Change Fund Change Fund (SCCF)(SCCF)

voluntaryvoluntary US$62.1mUS$62.1m US$9.1mUS$9.1m US$53.0mUS$53.0m

2. Least Developed 2. Least Developed Countries Fund Countries Fund (LDC Fund)(LDC Fund)

voluntaryvoluntary US$115.8mUS$115.8m US$53.6mUS$53.6m US$62.2mUS$62.2m

3. Strategic 3. Strategic Priority on Priority on Adaptation (SPA; Adaptation (SPA; funded by GEF funded by GEF Trust Fund)Trust Fund)

voluntary voluntary US$50mUS$50m US$50mUS$50m

4. Adaptation 4. Adaptation FundFund

A share of A share of proceeds from proceeds from CDM projectsCDM projects

Best estimate of Best estimate of US$450m by US$450m by 20122012

Part 3: Regional Part 3: Regional PreparednessPreparedness

How to prepare?: Mainstreaming How to prepare?: Mainstreaming What is mainstreaming?What is mainstreaming?

• Integration ofIntegration of concerns on adaptationconcerns on adaptation to to current and future impacts of climate change current and future impacts of climate change in in on-going sectoral and development on-going sectoral and development planning and decision-makingplanning and decision-making

Why is mainstreaming necessary?Why is mainstreaming necessary?• To ensure that current projects are no longer at To ensure that current projects are no longer at

risk from climate changerisk from climate change• To ensure that future projects are consciously To ensure that future projects are consciously

aimed at reducing vulnerabilityaimed at reducing vulnerability• To use resources effectively and efficiently To use resources effectively and efficiently • To ensure consistency between national/local To ensure consistency between national/local

priorities and adaptation needs priorities and adaptation needs

Approaches for Mainstreaming Approaches for Mainstreaming Entry pointsEntry points

• National Communications, NAPAsNational Communications, NAPAs• Incorporating adaptation concerns in national Incorporating adaptation concerns in national

Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP), Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP), National Environmental Action Plans (NEAP), National Environmental Action Plans (NEAP), and Millennium Development Goal (MDG) plansand Millennium Development Goal (MDG) plans

Integrating in national economic planning Integrating in national economic planning and budgetary processesand budgetary processes

Strengthening coordination on adaptation Strengthening coordination on adaptation issues among sectors issues among sectors • Linking adaptation strategies with disaster risk Linking adaptation strategies with disaster risk

management management

Progress on Mainstreaming Progress on Mainstreaming

Most National Communications are Most National Communications are strongly skewed towards GHG strongly skewed towards GHG inventories/mitigation.inventories/mitigation.

NAPA process in some LDCs (e.g., NAPA process in some LDCs (e.g., Bangladesh) seems to have served as Bangladesh) seems to have served as catalyst in mainstreaming adaptation catalyst in mainstreaming adaptation concerns at least in planning stagesconcerns at least in planning stages

Development agencies have just begun to Development agencies have just begun to support mainstreaming efforts (WB, GTZ, support mainstreaming efforts (WB, GTZ, OECD, JBIC etc)OECD, JBIC etc)

Source: Ancha Srinivasan 2006Source: Ancha Srinivasan 2006

Coverage on adaptation policies and measures as Coverage on adaptation policies and measures as reflected by number of pages in National reflected by number of pages in National Communications of selected Asian countries Communications of selected Asian countries

Mainstreaming: Gaps and Mainstreaming: Gaps and Concerns (1)Concerns (1)

Lack of awarenessLack of awareness among policy makers among policy makers about climate change impacts and their about climate change impacts and their economic and social implications in each economic and social implications in each sector.sector.

MismatchMismatch between the temporal and between the temporal and spatial scales of climate change spatial scales of climate change projections and information needs of projections and information needs of sector planners sector planners • Very few climate models can predict rainfall Very few climate models can predict rainfall

patterns in Asian countries with certainty or on patterns in Asian countries with certainty or on timescales relevant to policy makerstimescales relevant to policy makers

Mainstreaming: Gaps and Mainstreaming: Gaps and Concerns (2)Concerns (2)

Institutional fragmentationInstitutional fragmentation and and resulting communication barriers among resulting communication barriers among ministries ministries • Different ministries are involved in:Different ministries are involved in:

vulnerability and adaptation assessment,vulnerability and adaptation assessment, disaster risk management, disaster risk management, rural development, rural development, poverty alleviation, and poverty alleviation, and land-use regulation land-use regulation

Lack of “ownership” Lack of “ownership” of an adaptive of an adaptive approach to future risks due to donor-approach to future risks due to donor-driven projects driven projects

So, what is the statue of So, what is the statue of preparedness? preparedness?

Increasing attentionIncreasing attention has begun to has begun to be paid be paid to adaptationto adaptation, while the , while the current international climate regime current international climate regime is largely geared toward mitigation is largely geared toward mitigation so far.so far.

To move forward, To move forward, several several challengeschallenges remain. remain.• Negotiation challengesNegotiation challenges• Financing challengesFinancing challenges• Mainstreaming challengesMainstreaming challenges

Way Forward (1) Way Forward (1) Climate regime should enhance the focus on Climate regime should enhance the focus on

adaptation to a similar level, if not more, as that adaptation to a similar level, if not more, as that of mitigation. of mitigation. • Mobilising additional resources for adaptation Mobilising additional resources for adaptation • Building human and institutional capacity Building human and institutional capacity • Strengthening support for more detailed vulnerability Strengthening support for more detailed vulnerability

assessment assessment Practical, on-the-ground demonstrations on Practical, on-the-ground demonstrations on

promising mainstreaming options, rather than promising mainstreaming options, rather than theoretical approachestheoretical approaches

Supporting efforts to document such Supporting efforts to document such demonstrations as a way to promote capacity demonstrations as a way to promote capacity buildingbuilding• Database on Local Coping strategy at UNFCCC site Database on Local Coping strategy at UNFCCC site

http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/adaptation/

Way Forward (2) Way Forward (2) UNFCCC and other organisations to play UNFCCC and other organisations to play

catalytic role in exchange of experiences, catalytic role in exchange of experiences, and in facilitating the development of and in facilitating the development of region-wide and sector-wide approaches region-wide and sector-wide approaches

Promoting synergies among climate, Promoting synergies among climate, development and disaster risk development and disaster risk management mechanisms to develop management mechanisms to develop seamless, efficient efforts to deal with seamless, efficient efforts to deal with climate hazards climate hazards • International level International level • Domestic level Domestic level

Projected Emissions from Annex I and Non-Projected Emissions from Annex I and Non-Annex I Parties and Stabilization PathsAnnex I Parties and Stabilization Paths

Note: Calculated by AIM

Large reduction in global GHG emissions are necessary.

All Sectors and regions have the All Sectors and regions have the potential to contributepotential to contribute