Red Meat Prospects Conference ‘Progress Through Partnership’

Red Meat Prospects Red Meat Prospects Conference Conference

‘‘Progress Through Progress Through Partnership’Partnership’

Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture

AIDAN COTTER

CHIEF EXECUTIVE

BORD BIA

28 JANUARY 2009


March 2013

Market Outlook forMarket Outlook forBeef & Sheep Sectors:Beef & Sheep Sectors:

- ROI Perspective- ROI Perspective

Joe Burke


Beef Market OutlookBeef Market Outlook

• Irish Cattle AvailabilityIrish Cattle Availability

• EU Beef ProductionEU Beef Production

• Price SituationPrice Situation

• Market DemandMarket Demand

• Live ExportsLive Exports


1.14m. Dairy cows1.15m. Suckler cows

produced 2.16m. calves in 2012:

Dairy-bred animals0.75m.

Suckler-bred cattle1.03m.

ROI National Cattle Herd 2012

Dairy-beef crosses0.38m

Source CSOJune

Source DAFM


2012 Calf Registrations +3.7% / +77,000 Live Exports -25% / -55,000


2011 2012 2013 (F)

Steers 578 466 530 - 560

Y Bulls 185 207 200 - 220

Heifers 415 352 370 - 380

Cows 337 330 340 - 350

Other 55 40 40 - 45

Total 1,570 1,396 1,500 – 1,530

Throughput Forecast – Export Meat Plants(000’ head)

Most of this increase likely in second half of 2013


ROI weekly finished cattle supplies ROI weekly finished cattle supplies (head)(head)

2013 Cattle Suppliesto-date 9.7% vs. 2012


UK• Throughput -6.3%• Prime cattle -7.6%• Cull cows -1.6%• Calf births recover

European MarketsEuropean Markets

Cattle Supplies 2012Cattle Supplies 2012

France• Throughput -5.7%• Y. Bulls -6.5%• Cull cows -4.8%• Live Exps: -3.1%

Germany• Throughput -1.5%

Italy• Throughput -4%• Cattle imports -10%• Males aged <12mo.s -8%

Spain• Throughput -1.5%• Live imports -17%• Live exports +54%

EU Beef Production in 2012 4.8% lower than 2011(EU Commission)


EU-27 Beef Production Trend 2011 - 2013

-1.7%

-1.5%

-2.1%

+0.5%

+8% +1

% -2%

N/C.

Source: EU working beef forecasting group

Further decline of 0.5% forecast for 2013


Producer Price Increase: ROI vs. Europe & UK

Note: Price Increase in Euro terms


Producer Prices: Ireland vs. Europe & UK

(w/e 09/03) Irish Price €4.08/kg, EU-15 Av. €3.95/kg; UK €4.37/kg

In Italy, R-grade young bull price: €4.09/kg, Spain: €3.90, France: €3.94, In Italy, R-grade young bull price: €4.09/kg, Spain: €3.90, France: €3.94, Germany €4.14Germany €4.14

Prices in Euro terms


Source: EU working beef forecasting group

Slight further decline in

consumption forecast

-0.6%

-1.2%


Ireland Beef Consumption

52 Weeks to 17th February:

• Volume: -6.9%

• Av. Price: +8.0% to €8.85/kg

Latest 4 weeks to 17th Feb:

•Volume -7.3%

•Av. Price: +13.4% to €9.36/kg

Source: Kantar


UK Beef Consumption

52 Weeks to 17 February• Volume: - 2.8%• Price: + 7.3%

4 Weeks to 17 February• Volume: -1.1%• Price: +3.0%

Disappointing sales of roasting joints

Knock-on effect of price increases

Underlying decline in consumption

Less price promotions

Sales of burgers/grills down 35% in latest 4 week period


Calves Weanlings/Stores Finished Cattle Total

2010 158996 119964 59607 338567

2011 88051 79821 46628 214500

2012 38227 68577 53482 160286


(000’ head) 2012 2013 % change

Total

NI

GB

Italy

Spain

Netherlands

Belgium

Greece

Non-EU

18,270

6,953

1,802

3,583

901

2,304

1,447

442

587

30,976

6,084

1,243

3,290

4,102

6,392

3,707

440

4,389

+70%

-12.5%

-31%

-8%

+310%

+177%

+156%

N/C

+650%

Live Cattle Exports 2013Distribution of Live Exports from Ireland up to w/e. 2nd March


Beef Summary

• Recovery in national cattle herd:Increase in cattle kill on last year’s low levels

• Continued decline in EU production:4.8% fall in 2012; even tighter supplies this yr• Market opportunities in France, Germany, Italy and Netherlands

• Price performance: UK & Irish producer prices have risen most

• Beef consumption impacted by higher prices, especially in the more ‘difficult’ economies: ROI, Italy, Spain, Portugal

• Some recovery in live exports, especially calves


AIDAN COTTER

CHIEF EXECUTIVE

BORD BIA

28 JANUARY 2009


SHEEP SECTOR


TOTAL 2,171,242

TOTAL 2,431,283

ROI Sheep Meat Production2011 v’s 2012

+68k

+160k +

32K

+12% Increase | + 260k head | + 5,300 tonnes to 53,300t

Wk ending 30 Dec

Source: DAFM


6.4

3.5

4.7

5.25

2.67

Num

ber

of

Sheep (

Mill

ions)

ROI Sheep Population Outlook 2013 ... 2-3% growth

5.15

Source’: CSO June National

Livestock Survey


TOTAL 335,259

TOTAL 447,201

ROI Sheep Throughput Year to-date2011, ‘12, ‘13

+

90k

TOTAL 300,652

+33% Increase | + 112k head | 19.9kg Av Carcass Wt | +2,229 tonnes


2012462c

ROI Sheep Prices Period: 2010- 2013


Home Market – Consumption still growing

Latest Kantar Retail Data

(52 week period ending 17 Feb ‘13)

Total Volume 9,760t (+ 4.9)% Total Value €103m (+ 4.3%)


Promoting Lamb with the Quality Mark

PR activity

TV Advertising (8wks) & Local Radio

InstoreActivity

2013 Spring & Summer Lamb Promotion

New Season Lamb Radio

Advert


FRANCE18,995t

UK11,318t

BELGIUM2,129t (+35%)

GERMANY

2,508t (+29%)

SWEDEN

2,424t (+17%)

Export Market PerformancePeriod: January – December 2012

Hong Kong 680t

Source’: Bord Bia estimates based on CSO/GTIS

(+4%)

(+6%) (+350%)

Export MarketVolumes up 12%Value up 7%

Netherlands1,365t (+76%)


Irish Sheep Meat Exports* ... Continued shift from carcass to boneless trade

* Exports to FR, UK, BE, S, DE


Markets

Carry over of hoggets | Production +8% | 55% exports FR | Sterling

Production - 8% | poor domestic demand | targeting France

Production + 3-5% | Shipping costs | Weather | Market Priorities?

Breeding flock -5% | Lacaune lambs Spring ’13 | Import requirement +


AIDAN COTTER

CHIEF EXECUTIVE

BORD BIA

28 JANUARY 2009


March 2013

Market Outlook forMarket Outlook forBeef & Sheep Sectors:Beef & Sheep Sectors:

- ROI Perspective- ROI Perspective

Joe Burke

Red Meat Prospects Red Meat Prospects Conference Conference

‘‘Progress Through Progress Through Partnership’Partnership’

Documents

Red Meat Prospects Conference ‘Progress Through Partnership’