Upload
jerome-price
View
213
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Red Alder Export from the US
Dr. Ivan EastinDirector, CINTRAFOR
College of Forest Resources, UW
Presented at the:Western Hardwood Association Annual Meeting
Whistler, British Columbia13-14 July, 2008
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
Weak US Dollar helps exports
The weak dollar has significantly improved the competitiveness of US wood exports, particularly with respect to Europe and Canada products
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jan
-99
May
-99
Sep
-99
Jan
-00
May
-00
Sep
-00
Jan
-01
May
-01
Sep
-01
Jan
-02
May
-02
Sep
-02
Jan
-03
May
-03
Sep
-03
Jan
-04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan
-05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan
-07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan
-08
$Can
adia
n/Eur
o pe
r $
US
.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Yen
per
$U
S .
$Canadian per $US
¥ per $US
Euro per $US
Since 2002
$US has weakened 24.1% against the ¥
$US has weakened 37.3% against the $C
$US has weakened 43.1% against the €
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
-$30,000,000
-$25,000,000
-$20,000,000
-$15,000,000
-$10,000,000
-$5,000,000
$0
$5,000,000
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Tra
de
Bal
ance
($
1,000)
US Wood Products Trade Deficit
The US trade deficit has declined by 21.8% since 2005
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
US Red Alder Log and Lumber Exports
$0
$20,000,000
$40,000,000
$60,000,000
$80,000,000
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
$140,000,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Red
Ald
er E
xpor
ts (
$)
.
Logs
Total
Lumber
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
Red Alder Log Export Markets
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000
2007 2008
Red
Ald
er L
og E
xpor
ts (
$)
.
Spain
Italy
Mexico
Germany
China
+63.9
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
Red Alder Lumber Markets
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
2007 2008
Red
Ald
er L
umbe
r E
xpor
ts (
$)
.
SpainGermanyVietnamMexicoItalyChina
-30.90%
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
Unit Values of Log and Lumber Exports
$0.00
$100.00
$200.00
$300.00
$400.00
$500.00
$600.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Uni
t V
alue
s ($
/m3)
.
Logs
Lumber
44.5%
112.3%111.1%
89.8%
70.7%
91.5%
82.4%76%
79.4%
54.5%
31.2%
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
Vietnam is a Rapidly Emerging Market
$0
$1,000,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
$5,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Fur
nitu
re E
xpo
rts
(US
D)
.China Growth Rate 2001-2006: 252%
Vietnam Growth Rate 2001-2006: 478%
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
Recent Trends of Interest Russian announcement of log export tariffs aimed to encourage investment in wood processing industry
Initially 6.5% 20% on July 2007 (but not less than €10/m3) Currently 25% in April 2008 (but not less than €15/m3) 80% by January 2009 (but not less than €50/m3)
Japanese and European public procurement policies require certification of legality for wood used in public projects (expected that private companies will comply eventually)
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
44.1%42.3%
42.4%
37.3%34.4%
37.3%
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Sof
twoo
d L
og E
xpo
rts
(m3)
.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Rus
sian
Rat
io o
f W
orld
Tot
al (
%)
.
Russian SW Log Exports
World SW Log Exports
Russian Ratio
Russian Exports to China
Russian Exports to J apan
Russian Softwood Logs Exports
Russia supplies over 80% of China’s SW logs and over 50% of Japan’s SW log imports. The loss of Russian logs provides opportunities for the US.
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
27.6%26.8%
20.8%
10.2%
4.3%4.1%
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Har
dw
ood L
og E
xpo
rts
(m3)
.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Rus
sian
Rat
io o
f W
orld
Tot
al (
%)
.
World HW Log Exports
Russia HW Log Exports
Russian Ratio
Russian Exports to China
Russian Hardwood Logs Exports
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
Results of a Survey of Chinese Companies with Chain of Custody Certification
200 companies with CoC certification as of November 2006 Surveys were faxed in December 2006 / January 2007 to all CoC firms Completed surveys received from 41 companies Response rate of 20.5%
Public Procurement Policies Drive Chinese Demand for Certified Wood
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
Number of Chinese Firms with CoC Certification
1 7 1225 32
52
78
127
200
376
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Num
ber
of
CoC
Fir
ms
.
As of yesterday, there were 408 companies certified in China
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
Location of Chinese Firms with CoC Certification
Most CoC companies are located along the coast
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
52
42 41
32
25
2018
14
9 9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Product Mix (Population)
Fre
quen
cy
Number 52 42 41 32 25 20 18 14 9 9
I ndoor
f urniture &
Accessories
Craf t
products &
Stationeries
Outdoor
f urniture &
Accessories
Wood
material
Garden &
BBQ toolsFlooring
Doors &
WindowsLogs Pulp & Paper Others
Product Mix of Chinese Firms with CoC Certification
Furniture manufacturers represent the largest segment of certified companies
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
RMB USD
Evaluation fee ¥66,980 $8,404
Audit fee (per year) ¥33,721 $4,231
China CoC Survey Results
Average Cost of Gaining CoC Certification for a manufacturer or Trading Company
Acquiring CoC certification is costly and may be a problem for the smaller companies.
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
End markets
Frequency Percentage
Proportion of sales for each end market
Europe 35 38.4% 54.6%
United States 30 33.0% 29.8%
Canada 11 12.1% 8.4%
Australia 5 5.5% 1.6%
Japan 4 4.4% 0.6%
China 3 3.3% 2.8%
Other 3 3.3% 2.2%
Total 91 100% 100%
China CoC Survey Results
Over 90% of total sales for CoC companies go to North America and Europe
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
2.8%
1.5%
5.1%
6.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Europe United States Canada China
Pric
e Pr
emiu
m .
China CoC Survey Results
Price premiums for certified wood products vary by market but can be substantial in the US and EU
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
Observations
• Weak US dollar has improved the competitiveness of US wood products in foreign markets, especially in relation to European and Canadian suppliers• Slowing US housing market should encourage exports• Domestic US recession has reduced demand for wood furniture, flooring and cabinets which has translated into reduced demand for US hardwood species in foreign production markets• Harmonized codes for red alder lumber changed in 2007 from dry and green to a single product dry+green• Trade data appears skewed since change in harmonized codes
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
Observations (2)
• Reduced logging in PNW resulting from steep drop in softwood lumber production has reduced volume of red alder logs available• Main log markets are China and Germany• Main lumber markets are China, Italy, Mexico and Vietnam• Unit value of logs has always been below lumber but in 2007 the trend reverses• Emergence of Vietnam and loss of Russian logs presents strong export growth opportunity for US hardwood industry
Center for International Trade in Forest Products
Questions?