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Records Management Perspectives: Back to the future1965–2065

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50 YEARS OF TECHNOLOGY: THEN, NOW AND NEXT

Records Management Perspectives | Back to the future 1965–2065

In 2015, Crown celebrates its 50th anniversary. Over the years the company has seen enormous growth and change. Now present in almost 60 countries, we are proud of our lasting heritage and strong forward-thinking vision to guide us into the next 50 years.

Crown Worldwide was founded in 1965. During this year, NASA was working on some of the most challenging engineering, physics and computing problems known to mankind – preparing to get a man to the moon. But the Saturn V rocket that took them there had a guidance computer that ran at a speed of 40 KHz, about 100,000 times slower than a new laptop and with less computing power than a modern smartphone.

It’s hard to believe that just 50 years ago, the world population stood at three billion souls, half of what it is today. Most of those people had never seen a jet plane, let alone flown in one.

In fact, a USB storage device has more computing power than it took to get Neil Armstrong to the moon and back after 11 years of planning and 17 Apollo missions.

It may come as even more of a surprise that every time you do an Internet search, it uses more computer power than could be dreamed of back then.

The 1965 normThe information management industry had begun in earnest. It was a time before cash machines, mobile phones, Wi-Fi, flat-screen TVs, programmable calculators, toys that make sounds, cars that give directions, computer games or MP3 players. The days when bookkeeping really did involve books and printed books were only available at bookshops!

The nearest thing to social media in those days was newspaper classified advertisements, online shopping didn’t exist and we’d never seen a picture of the Earth in full view. And, the Beatles were defining new sounds.

A lot has changed in computing, technology and information management over the ensuing 50 years – and a lot will continue to change.

Predicting the next 50 years is not an easy game, however, especially in this business. After all, some very famous – and very bright – people have gotten it very wrong in the past. Just take a look at these quotes from some of the greatest minds the planet has ever known ...

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.

“But what ... is it good for?”Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

“I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.”The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.

“There will never be a bigger plane built.”A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247, a twin-engine plane that holds ten people.

Records Management Perspectives | Back to the future 1965–2065

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As you can see, even the greatest minds find it hard to look too far into the future. But, even so, there are clear trends that can be extrapolated from our experience of the past and how the world of technology has progressed.

You can be pretty sure that computers will get faster, data storage costs will fall, more reality TV programs will be made, mobile technology will improve and more people will work away from their desk.

The changes ahead are certain to make an impact. Robots will become part of life; even if they do not look like Star War’s C-3PO, you’ll still be able to talk to them. They’ll interpret motion, mood and feeling to enhance effective communication. They will appear intelligent just as IBM’s Watson computer that beat the human contestants in America’s “Jeopardy!” game show.

Information will be contextually sensitive; spoken or displayed on contact lenses/glasses. Smartphones will cease to be perceived as wireless phones for talking as they monitor our well-being and health along with our wealth as they replace the need to carry money.

As the buildings that we live and work in become smart, so will the roads and transport between them to make use of resources more efficiently.

Balancing advancement and data protectionAs for data protection, the revelations of Edward Snowden (the U.S. computer analyst and whistleblower) have intensified the debate about balancing the need to share information and the need to retain privacy.

However deep you look into your crystal ball, this is an issue that will not easily be solved to everyone’s satisfaction. Many people will be uncomfortable with governments or companies being able to access too much information. They will want some form of protection, anonymization or ability to opt out of certain things.

But as technology progresses, the many benefits gained from combining data, such as genetic data to improve health treatments or locations to improve traffic flow, will lead to many new services and products.

So will the principles of records management be replaced?No, the methods will change but the principles will remain fundamentally the same, along with issues of authenticity, originality and accuracy.

Auto-classification will improve as the years go by and manually adding metadata may reduce over time, but the bigger issue of information governance will grow. Just as shared folders did not solve data storage problems, progress brings slightly new challenges.

The cost of data storage hardware will keep falling but that can represent as little as 20 percent of the overall cost of storing data. Keeping too much data can in itself be a risk and require new ways of thinking about it. Especially in an era when the demand for it to be edited and deleted is growing all the time.

Holographic or DNA-type storage may well be bigger and better in the future, too – but that doesn’t solve some of the problems familiar in 1965 or 2015.

“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.”Albert Einstein, 1932.

“With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market.”Business Week, August 2, 1968.

“Email spam will be gone in two years.”Bill Gates, 2004.

“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.”Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer of the British Post Office, 1876.

Records Management Perspectives | Back to the future 1965–2065

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WHAT DOES THE FuTuRE LOOk LikE? OuR PREDiCTiONS FOR THE DiGiTAL AGE

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B

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1. Robotics – Driven by technology in sensors, computing and materials, biomimicry will inspire new abilities that make the car-building robots as antique as old steam trains today. Changing demographics will be another factor pushing this development as the population ages and needs caring for. Expect to see robot nursing assistants in the hospitals of the future.

2. New age – The silicon age will pass into history as bio, quantum, DNA and photonic computers make today’s supercomputers seem primitive in some aspects. Where the body’s nerves are severed – such as spinal injuries – biocomputers will help people walk again and the blind see.

3. Computing – Watson’s room-filling IBM system that beat the humans in the TV quiz show “Jeopardy!” will eventually become “Pocket Watson.” Today’s machine learning will evolve into instant speech recognition and importantly the content and semantics will be considered. Looking at small screens will be as quaint as gathering around old wooden cabinet wireless sets. Wearables will be the norm and some people will want to be directly connected to computers, with implants to monitor health and interact with computers to enhance their normal abilities.

The silicon age will soon pass as graphene and other technology will develop in everything from computing to buildings, nanotechnology, synthetic biology, quantum computing and holography. This will make computers of today look as out of place as the valve-filled rooms of 50 years ago, as we wear, talk, move and even become linked to them. Even batteries may be charged from motion or radio waves all around us.

History shows us that the best prediction will inevitably be wrong and the future will instead be full of unexpected surprises. But what’s the point of looking back 50 years if you can’t indulge yourself and sometimes look 50 years ahead as well?

4. Travel – Driving a car may not be faster but it will certainly be safer. A car will predict traffic delays and never get lost, it will talk to traffic lights and other cars to smooth the journey. Google already has driverless cars and Volvo has demonstrated platoon driving, which means driving very closely in a much more efficient manner.

5. Telepresence – Businesses will finally be able to deliver on its promises with 8k-quality pictures taking up an entire wall that display realistic imagery of your choice but also for virtual meetings – like Skype on steroids – in 3D.

5. Connectivity – Our world will be connected wirelessly – 5, 6, 7G will roll out to the point where we stop worrying about connectivity and speed. With 5G due by 2020 offering speeds equivalent to fiber broadband connections today, it’s already happening. Fuel cell, passive energy collection from radio and Wi-Fi or algae-powered batteries that just need a bit of sugar to recharge will end the curse of no power. The plastic bendable screens will not need to be constantly refreshed, only the changes displayed like e-ink now. Paper will be the vinyl records of the future – cherished by many but used by few.

Records Management Perspectives | Back to the future 1965–2065

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THE bEGiNNiNG:

The abacus, the first known calculator, was invented in Babylonia

John Napier invents a system of moveable rods (Napier’s Rods), based on logarithms, which are able to multiply, divide and calculate square and cube roots

Alexander Graham Bell invents the telephone, called the Photophone

Alan Turing develops the concept of a theoretical computing machine

The first electronic computer is created in Japan by Hideo Yamachito

Liang Ling-Can invents the first fully mechanical clock

Charles Babbage invents the Analytic Engine

John Logie Baird invents the electrical mechanical television system

Adolf Hitler uses the Enigma encryption machine and Alan Turing develops the codebreaking machine Colossus

T. Raymond Thompson and John Simmons develop the first business computer, the Lyons

Electronic Office (LEO) at Lyons Co.

1614

1880

1937

1950

724

1834

1924

1943

1951

Bell Labs introduces its first transistor computer

Americans Jack Kilby and Robert Noyce produce the first integrated circuit (or silicon chip)

Steve Russell and MIT invent the first computer game, Spacewar

Basil Hirschowitz, C. Wilbur Peters and Lawrence E. Curtiss invent optical fiber

General Motors puts the first industrial robot, Unimate, to work in a New Jersey factory

Douglas Engelbart invents and patents the first computer mouse (nicknamed the mouse because the tail came out the end)

1955

1958

1962

1956

1961

1963

2400 BC

Records Management Perspectives | Back to the future 1965–2065

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THE LAST 50 YEARS:

The hand-held calculator was invented at Texas Instruments

Ray Tomlinson invents email

The VisiCalc spreadsheet is born

• XeroxAltopersonalcomputerisdevelopedat XeroxPARC

• IBMintroducesthe8”floppydiskandfirstharddrive

• TheMITSAltair,thefirsthomecomputer,islaunched

• Microsoftisfounded

• NovelistWilliamGibsoncoinstheterm“cyberspace”

• ApplelaunchesMacintosh128K

• IBMcreatesthefirstfloppydisk

• TheU.S.DepartmentofDefensesetsuptheAdvancedResearch Projects Agency Network (ARPANET), the first building blocks of the modern Internet

• BarclaysBankintheU.K.claimstohaveinstalledthefirst cash dispenser

• IntegratedcircuitsfirstusedintheApolloMoonshot

Atari introduces Pong

Apple 1 is released

SinclairlaunchestheZXSpectrumcomputer

Microsoft Windows is launched

1966

1971

1978

1984

1973

1967

1972

1976

1982

1985

Tim Berners-Lee deliberates with the idea of web pages and hyperlinks1989

The World Wide Web is launched to the public (50 servers) 1991

The Internet is freed from government control1992

Civilian use of GPS is allowed 1996

Apple launches a new music device – the iPod 2001

IBM’s Deep Blue beats Gary Kasparov at chess1997

Records Management Perspectives | Back to the future 1965–2065

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The iPhone is unveiled

Apple iPad is launched

Microsoft reveals HoloLens headset

The first tweet is sent on Twitter

Android operating system is released

IBM Watson computer wins U.S. television quiz show “Jeopardy!” against former champions

2007

2010

2015

2006

2008

2011

2002 • MicrosoftandpartnerslaunchthetabletPC

• ThenumberofPCssoldpassesonebillion

THE NEXT 50 YEARS:

The phrase “home computing” stops being used, as the house becomes the computer through connected smart devices and mobile devices. Personal digital assistants are commonly used to sift through volumes of news and social media. 3D printers become useful and fabrication shops reach the high street for specialist materials, much as key-cutting services exist today.

Turing test passed by computer. DNA testing becomes common along with designer drugs to alleviate individual conditions. Supersonic travel returns to the skies for those that can afford it. Solar power is cheaper per kWh than fossil fuels, an economic tipping point that favors the environment.

Net neutrality starts to come under pressure for security and commercial reasons. Hominoid robots are used in hospitals

to assist doctors. The first lanes for driverless cars are put in place as the forerunner to autonomous vehicles. All cars are

required to have “black boxes” with automatic fines for traffic violations or accidents.

Professions such as doctors are under threat from AI and scanning technologies. Artificial doctors start to surpass the

knowledge of doctors. Paper money is no longer used in some countries. Synthetic biology creates material with properties

that were not previously possible.

2030

2025

2040

2020

Records Management Perspectives | Back to the future 1965–2065

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3D printers print living tissue. Now, almost anything can be “replicated” and the end of the industrial age is in sight after 350 years. Supply chains, as we know them, change with global employment implications. There are massive environmental benefits as humans use technology and natural resources more wisely by choice and necessity.

2050

Computers are not used as a tool to produce art but create it and start to solve original problems through invention. The

United Nation backs geoengineering projects to attempt to alleviate previous environmental damage.

2060

100 years since Apollo and the first compelling scientific evidence of life on other planets is found, the first manned Mars mission happens around the same time. The first “computers” were humans doing mathematical problems. The term “computers” finally falls out of fashion as pretty much everything becomes a computer and the term becomes meaningless. Bitter debates continue about what life and intelligence actually mean. While we have been searching the heavens for life to find out if we are unique, we realize we may have created our own artificial life at home …

2065

in conclusion

People looking into the future take various approaches. Einstein claimed never to think of the future as it will arrive soon enough, whereas Gorge Burns looked to the future as it’ll be where he spends the rest of his life. Speculation on what’s to come can be fun and looking back is interesting, all of which looks quite obvious in hindsight. We believe the future will bring the best of technology and information management.

As the great Mahatma Gandhi wisely pointed out: “The future depends on what we do in the present.”

Crown employees are working toward the next 50 years and we’d like you to join us by talking about your information needs of the present and how we can work together to create the future.

This article was written by John Culkin, Crown’s Director of Information Management, in celebration of Crown’s 50th anniversary.