Reconstruction of Past Hydrology in the James Bay Hydroelectric Complex over the past 200 years

Yves Bégin, Antoine Nicault (CEN, Geography Laval)Dominique Arseneault (CEN, Biology, UQAR)Christian Bégin, Martine M. Savard (GSC-Québec)Frank Berninger (UQAM)Jean-Jacques Boreux (University of Liège, Belgium)Joël Guiot (CEREGE, Marseille, France)Luc Perreault, René Roy, Isabelle Chartier (Hydro-Québec, Ouranos)

Kuujjuarapik

Source: Environnement-Canada

Kuujjuaq 1949-1988Kuujjuaq 1989-1999

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Time (year)

-12

-11

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2M

ean

Ann

ual A

ir Te

mpe

ratu

re o

r MA

AT

(°C

)

Middle of 20th century (1949-1988):- cooling rate of -0,020 °C/an from -5.1to -5.8 °C- T1949 = -6.0 °C and T1988 = -5.8 °C

Source: Environnement-Canada

Energy supply anomalies (TWh)r

Source: Hydro-Québec

BeyondBeyond thethe observations …observations …ClimateClimate projectionsprojections

20502050-- 200 yrs…200 yrs… Gauged data seriesGauged data series

RunRun--offoff fromfrom RCMRCM

Hydrologic Hydrologic modelsmodels

PaleoclimaticPaleoclimaticreconstructionreconstruction

Past, present, future

Energy supply departures (TWh)r

Roy, HQ

1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

FMSUKPGGR4PG

VENDWRDUOAVPGMELESKABRGR2UKBHS1

FEUPGRMRX

FEUENKJKD2NORDATKIN

RHGR4ENROZI

TSKANAD

THXGR1BT4SNIT

LEC-NEKJKD3RT630CANIMCANIHCRAFGR5THHCE1GR3

ROZMKJKD1DA1MCANEKJKD4CANIX

IAHCORILE

HM2KANC

T1KANBHER

LEC-NWHH1

LEC-EGR1EBDA1XDUCTOMMIT07HU1

CORPLHM1

ROZXKANAROBDWDUODOMPOOL

Years

Sam

plin

gsi

tes

Coverage periods of living trees

Hydro-climaticreconstruction

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

TemperaturesPrécipitations

Hydrological dataHydro-climatic indices

Grid data

Hydro-climatic data

Continuous series :Tree-ring width and density

Stable isotopesDiscrete events

Past riparian tree-linesIce scar chronologies

Tree-ring data

Statistical methods

Calibration - Verification - Reconstitution

50%

Methods

1 2

34

5

6 7

8

9

10

11Density data (mg/cm3)Minimum density (Mind)Maximum density (Maxd)Earlywood width (EWw)Latewood width (LWw)Average density of EW (EWd)Average density of LW (LWd)

Densitometric variables

12

50%

Methods

1 2

34

5

6 7

8

9

10

11Types of tree-ring data• Width (all sites)• Density (90% of the sites)• Isotopes (4 sites)

13

S

EW

Mature dominant trees, No visible growth anomalyGently sloping sites on well-drained till

Isotopes analysis

Average of 536 woodsamples prepared per site and isotope

Sampling

1

DENDROCHRONOLOGy(15-20 trees per site)

Ring width measurement

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Years

Width (m

m)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Reference framework for other analysis

2

1926

192019221924

Everey 2-years (1800 – 1940)Yearly (1941 – 2004)

Ring separation

4

Extraction ofcellulosis

6

13C18O

EA-CF-PRISM IIITC/EA-CF-IRMS

Isotopic ratios obtained by massspectrometry

7

DENDROISOTOPES(4-5 trees per site)

W

NS

E

Cutting ray sections

3

Weighting15-20 mg of wood

5

1920-1921

Sample groupingand preparation

Bégin, C, Savard, M. CGC

Activité glacielle

Hiver Crue printanière

Poussée glacielleÉtiage estival

Cicatrice glacielle

Lac dela Corvette

28 490 km2

3 353 km2

LG3LG2

LG4

Discrete ice-floodevents

Spearman’s rank correlations between hydrograph variables and ice activity

Hydrograph variables Scars frequency Scars maximum height

Mean flood discharge (m3/s) 0.623** 0.582**

Mean recession discharge (m3/s) 0.588** 0.565**

Peak discharge (m3/s) 0.407** 0.419**

Slope of rising limb ns ns

Start of hydrograph rise (day) 0.517** 0.435**

Moment of peak (day) 0.298* ns

End of recession (day)*** 0.534** 0.478**

Flood duration (days) ns ns

Duration of recession (days) ns ns

Time to peak (days) ns ns

** P < 0.01; * P < 0.05; N = 39

Hydrologic variables Threshold values

Mean flood discharge (m3/s) 1030 m s

Mean recession discharge (m3/s) 1065 m s

Peak discharge (m3/s) 1255 m s121Start of hydrograph rise (Julian day)

3

33

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Scar

s fre

quen

cy

0

2

4

6

8

Hei

gh (m

)

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

Dis

char

ge (m

3 /s)

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Scars frequencyScars maximum heightMean flood discharge

Major ice-pushes

Ice-push events and mean regional water flow.

Ice-pushes chronology of Corvette lake. The relative frequency and the scars maximum height are strongly correlated together (R = 0.69; P < 0.01)

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

rela

tive

scar

s fre

quen

cy

0

2

4

6

8

heig

ht (m

)

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4open scarsclosed scarsmaximum scars height

CentraleBrisay

LacCaniapiscau

CentraleLaforge-2

RÉSERVOIRCANIAPISCAU

RÉSERVOIRLAFORGE 2

RÉSERVOIRLAFORGE 1

RÉSERVOIRLA GRANDE 4

CentraleLaforge-1RÉSERVOIR

LA GRANDE 3

CentraleLa Grande-3

CentraleRobert-Bourassa

RÉSERVOIRROBERT-BOURASSA

LacSakami

CentraleLa Grande-1

CHISASIBIRADISSON

WEMINDJILac du

Vieux Comptoir

Lac Yasinski

R� SERVOIROPINACA

Lac de laCorvette

73°00'

73°00'

54°00'CentraleLa Grande-4

0 300 km

80° 60°

70° 60°

55°

60°

50°

55°

60°

50°

RÉSERVOIRDE LG QUATRE

LacTilly

CentraleLa Grande-4

Lac de la Bottine

LG4-2

LG4-3LG4-1

LG4-4

74°39'O

74°39'O

53°52'N 53°52'N

0 5 10 km

RÉSERVOIR

DE

CANIAPISCAU

Lac La Baume

CentraleBrisay

70°32'O

70°32'O

54°27'N 54°27'N

0 5 10 km

Brisay-4

Brisay-5Brisay-3

Brisay-2

Brisay-1

Diff: 60 cm

Diff: 40 cm

Secteur CaniapiscauSecteur LG4

60 cm 40 cmHausse de niveau

960 m2800 m2Superficie du lac

9460 m211280 m2Bassin versant

480 m 3 384 m3Quantité d’eau

12,5 cm 24,6 cmAmplitude duchangement

Reconstitution Barber et al. (2000) climatic indexAverage of June, July and August.

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

51780 1830 1880 1930 1980 Measured

Estim

ated

Calibration period(1961-2001)

Instrumental serie Reconstructed serie

5th perc. 50th perc. 95th perc.r2% Calibration 63.15 77.76 85.09r2% Verification 24.17 52.69 76.68

r 2 = 0.78

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

IC

IC

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

41960 1970 1980 1990 2000

CI = CI (p) – CI (t) or CI.(p) = Pnorm/ σ P(norm) and CI (t) = Tnorm/σ T(norm)

Reconstruction with all proxys

Warm and dry

Cold and wet

Reconstruction of annual water supply (m3/s) in reservoir Caniapiscau

Instrumental serie Reconstructed serie

Calibration period

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1710 1760 1810 1860 1910 1960 2010

APPrecAppmes

1710 1760 1810 1860 1910 1960 2010

5th perc. 50th perc. 95th perc.r2% Calibration 63.63 78.69 88.47r2% Verification 16.61 54.55 74.55

r = 0.78

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000

2

m3/s m3/s

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

MeasuredEs

timat

ed

Reconstruction with all proxys

Spring water supplies at Churchill Falls

hm3/s

5th perc. 50th perc. 95th perc.71.03 80.46 92.5410.54 49.32 74.83

r 2 = 0.83

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

15000 19000 23000 27000

hm3/s

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Calibration periodr2% Calibration r2% Verification

Estim

ated

Instrumental serie Reconstructed serie Measured

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1850 1900 1950 2000

Reconstruction with all proxys

1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000-3

-2

-1

0

1

Max

. Tem

pera

ture

depa

rtur

es

2Reconstruction of summer maximum temperatures (June-August)Bootstrap orthogonal regression (PPPhalos, CALROB, Guiot (1991)

Reconstitution with isotopic series

Measurements

R2 : 0.45RMV : 4.95 (99.9%)

Reconstruction

Northern Hemisphere average yearly temperatures (John and Moberg, 2003)Grid data HadCRUT2v (Hadley Center / Climatic Research Unit version 2)

Bégin, C., Savard, M., Gingras, M. CGC-Québec

1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

(m3/s)

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Reconstruction of water supply, Caniapiscau reservoir (July-November)

Valeurs observées

Bootstrap orthogonal regression (PPPhalos, CALROB, Guiot, 1991)

Valeurs reconstituéesMarge d’erreur R2 : 0.37

RMV : 2.8 (99%)Tendance des apports estivaux (Harricana)

Reconstitution with isotopic series

Bégin, C., Savard, M., Gingras, M. CGC-Québec

1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

(m3/s)

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Reconstruction of water supply, Caniapiscau reservoir (July-November)Bootstrap orthogonal regression (PPPhalos, CALROB, Guiot, 1991)

R2 : 0.37RMV : 2.8 (99%)

*Stations: Mille-Îles, Petite Nation, Harricana, Matawin, Montmorency (1912-2004)

Reconstitution with isotopic series

Bégin, C., Savard, M., Gingras, M. CGC-Québec

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Living riparian treesOn sediment surfacePartly burried in bottom-lake sedimentsCompletely burried

Partly burried in bottom-lake sedimentsCompletely burried

Calender years

Relative years

Arseneault, D., UQAR

0

50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

DA1 sitetconfidence interval (0.05)Average from living trees

Nseries

Ringwidths(mm)

Arseneault, D., UQAR

Dominique ArseneaultChristian BéginYves BéginFrank BerningerJean-Jacques BoreuxLuc CournoyerJoël GuiotJoëlle MarionAntoine NicaultMartine M. SavardAnna SmirnoffAbderrahmane Yagouti

Participants

Cooperative Research and Development project supported by Hydro-Québec, Ouranos, NSERC and ArcticNet, with contribution from the city of Radisson, GSC, MDEIEQ, and MDDEPQ.

Researchers and professionalsHydro-Québecand Ouranos

Jacques BernierGilles BouletGilles BrosseauIsabelle ChartierGeorges DesrochersGünther PacherLuc PerreaultRené RoyDominique TapsobaLuc Vescovi

Students

Étienne Boucher (D)Rahim Chabot (B)Benjamin Dy (M)Nicolas Fortier (M)Mathieu Gingras (M)Marilou Girard-Thomas (B)Mickaël Lemay (D)Julie Lemieux (M)Pierre-André Lemire (M)Sylvain Ménard (B)Céline Meunier (D)Cédric Paitre (D)Martin Tremblay (D)And numerous field and laboratory assistants