Recent Environmental Conditions and BC Salmon Outlook to 2020

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Image from UNAVCO: http://jules.unavco.org/VoyagerJr/Earth?zoom=in;region=easternpacific_2_1

K. Hyatt & S. Grant Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo

Contributors: I. Perry, L. Weitkamp, M. Galbraith, J. Boldt, P. Chandler, S. King, D. Patterson , J. Hills B. MacDonald, J. King H. Freeland, A. Sastri, J. Dower, M. Hipfner, M. Robert, D. Yelland

Hyatt and Grant et al. January 24, 2018 , Presentation to Fraser River First Nations Fisheries Forum, Richmond BC.

Record global temperatures in 2015 (with some exceptions)

NASA

Surface temperature anomalies

Perry, PIPSC North Central VI Branch Presentation, 1 June 2016

Global land and ocean temperature anomalies, 1880-2015

NOAA Perry, PIPSC North Central VI Branch Presentation, 1 June 2016 Updated from NOAA December 8 2017

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Adult Migration, Spawning, Egg Incubation & Freshwater Rearing (Key Years 2013-2015)

DFO Fraser Stock Assessment

Why do we care about Freshwater Conditions for Salmon?

Patterson & Hills: Literature Review DFO 2016

Parental and Offspring Experiences Matter: • Egg size, fry size – maternal discharge/temp exposure • Gamete viability – parental temp/discharge exposure • Fertilization temperature - affects egg survival • Fry swim performance – maternal stress, disease status • Predator avoidance – maternal stress • Prey production and availability – temp/discharge influence • Smolt quality – depends on rearing environment

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• Current challenge is to link individual level research to population level consequences

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2014

2013

2015

2012

British Columbia June Snow Pack (Percent of Normal)

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June

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Fraser River Environmental Watch D. Patterson & J. Hills, DFO

2013

2014

2015 2012

18° decreased swimming

20° high pre-spawn & disease

June

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

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Max temp anomalies in spawning & rearing areas

2013 2014 2016 2015 2017

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, and PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, (Jan. 2014). High Resolution Climatology.

D. Patterson & J. Hills

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Juvenile Salmon in Freshwater (Key Years 2014-2016)

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Spring: max temp anomalies 2013 2014 2016 2015 2017

Spring: precipitation anomalies

Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Unive rsity of Victoria, and PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, (Jan. 2014). High Resolution Climatology.

D. Patterson & J. Hills

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Juvenile Salmon in the Ocean

(Key Years 2015-2018)

State of the Ocean 2015 Chandler, King & Perry (editors) DFO Tech Report 3149

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• Two significant ocean events were observed in the Northeast Pacific in 2013-2015: the

continued warming of the upper 100 m of the central Gulf of Alaska (colloquially referred to as the “Blob”) during the first half of 2015, and a strong El Niño during late 2015 and early 2016.

• Phytoplankton blooms off the west coast of Vancouver Island were observed earlier

(May) and remained longer (August) than normal. This bloom included species which produce domoic acid, a neurotoxin for vertebrates, but, in contrast to widespread shellfishery closures along the US coast, only three areas along the west coast of Vancouver Island were closed to shellfish harvesting as a consequence of this bloom.

• The very warm water anomaly did not induce widespread Sockeye Salmon recruitment failures in 2015, but did influence the return timing and size-at-age traits of many populations. The warm ocean conditions in 2015 and El Niño in 2016 are likely to have produced unfavourable survival conditions for Central-to-South Coast salmon that went to sea in 2015, and therefore reduced returns in 2016-2018 of these stocks are expected (Hyatt et al, in Chandler, Perry and King, 2015)..

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Reference Period from 1981 to 2010

2012 (Jan-Dec) 2013 (Jan-June) 2013 (June-Dec) 2014 (Jan-Dec)

2015 (Jan-Dec) 2016 (Jan-Dec) 2017 (Jan-Dec)

El Niño

Blob Blob (coastal)

Blob

Blob Blob (at depth)

Blob gone

La Niña

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Peter Chandler, DFO SOPO 2016

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Changes in water temperature are reflected in changes in zooplankton species composition

• northern-type zooplankton occurred along Vancouver Island in 1st half of 2014 when water was cool (large nutritious species, good for fish)

• but, southern-type

zooplankton in 2nd half of 2014 and in 2015, 2016 when water was warm (small poor quality species)

1 mm

Perry and Hyatt. CSAS Regional Advisory Process, Fraser Sockeye 2016 Return Forecast Suppl. Meeting, Vancouver, 21 January 2016

16 Source: Laurie Weitkamp NOAA, Northwest Fisheries Science Centre, Seattle.

/BC

17 2015, 2016 and 2017 ranked as the 17th, 19th and 15th worst index years out of 20! “cold-ocean” “warm-ocean”

Observed Returns Forecast Returns All Year Average

1 Tahltan (Ak – Transboundary) 2 Nass (North Coast)

5 Somass (West Coast Vancouver Is.)

4 Chilko (South Coast Fraser) 3 Smith Inlet (Central Coast)

6 Okanagan (Columbia R.)

Total Returns in 1000’s

Coast-wide Sockeye in 2017 (Outlook for average to strongly, sub-average returns verified) )

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Hyatt et al, 2015, SOPO annual report

19 S.Grant, 2016 SOPO annual report

Strong north-south inverse production pattern in 2016 & 2017. Source: Laurie Weitkamp, NOAA Fisheries

WCVI marine conditions

Numbers and colours indicate each index relative rank from best (1) to worst (20) conditions for juvenile salmon

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index 10 4 6 5 11 16 15 17 12 13 2 9 7 3 1 8 18 20 19 14 North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Index 14 5 3 1 8 10 13 19 15 9 2 11 6 7 4 12 16 20 18 17 El Nino Index 13 4 5 9 19 14 18 17 12 8 2 10 3 1 11 6 15 20 16 7 Amphitrite Point SST 17 1 8 3 4 12 16 18 11 5 6 9 14 10 2 7 15 19 20 13 Cool-water copepods 11 3 10 14 1 12 6 16 7 2 5 4 8 13 9 17 15 18 19 Overall 15 1 4 4 9 14 16 18 12 7 1 9 8 6 3 11 17 20 19 13

J. King & I. Perry, Marine Environmental Background for 2018 Outlook ppt Dec 2017

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation & North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Indices provide an indication of large-scale North Pacific sea surface temperature spatial patterns 2014-2016 indicative of impacts of “The Blob” and El Nino

The El Nino index (Relatively strong 2016 El Nino gave way to a relatively weak 2017 La Nina).

Sea surface temperature at Amphitrite Point (return to cooler temperatures in 2017 after the 2014-2016 coastal impacts of “The Blob” and El Nino)

Relative abundance of subarctic copepods (cool-water species, large and nutritious) poor in 2014-2016 (2017 data not yet available, but VERY preliminary results indicate more ‘normal’ abundance).

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Sockeye (4sub2)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

lake

Sockeye (5sub2) lake

Sockeye/Chum/Chinook (4sub1)

Coho (3sub2) stream

Chinook (4sub2)

Chinook (5sub2)

stream

stream

Sockeye/Chum (3sub1)

spawning & egg incubation

fry-stream

fry-lake

Juvenile-Ocean

Spawning in 2018

Sources of 2018 Returns

lake Sockeye (3sub2: jacks)

Pink (2sub1)

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Summary: warmer conditions

• Exceptionally warm conditions in recent years both in freshwater and marine ecosystems • Warm during adult migration, spawning, and juvenile rearing (broadly) • Warm Northeast Pacific Ocean (‘Blob’ and El Niño from 2013-2016) • Poor feeding conditions (broadly, eastern Pacific rim from N. California to Alaska) • Warm water species in BC marine waters (“exotic” predators, competitors and prey)

• Poor returns in 2016 and 2017 as anticipated in SOPO “outlook” statements for Southern BC Sockeye, Pink and Chinook salmon while Chum returns were anomalously high. • 2019-2020 earliest one may expect any reversion to more favourable return patterns by salmon and especially those from the central to south coast, although Chum may be the exception.

Questions ?

Fisheries and Oceans Pêches et Océans Canada Canada Canada

Hyatt & Grant et al. Presentation to Fraser R. First Nations Fisheries Forum, Richmond BC., Jan 24, 2018 ,