Recent Developments in the Irish Labour Market: A Good News Story?

Elish KellyEconomic and Social Research Institute

Labour Market Symposium

Department of Public Expenditure and Reform and Department of Finance

19 May 2015

Employment

1. Employment Numbers increasing since Q4 2012: Good news

But

What do we know about the profile of those who have entered employment, in terms of , age, gender, education, location?

Why is this of interest? Identification of those who have gained, and which groups might need

more focus/targeted intervention Mainly graduates, so what about individuals with lower skill levels/early

school leavers? Issues: long-term unemployment , mis-match, displacement

Of interest to education, employment and unemployment policy-makers

Age Profile of those in Employment

Pre-Q4 2014 Q4 2012 Onwards0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

55-64

45-54

35-44

25-34

20-24

15-19

Source: Constructed with Q4 2014 QNHS Longitudinal Data (Aged 15-64), CSO

2. Employment

Also, where is the employment taking place, in terms of economic sector and geographic location?

Why is this of interest? Are the courses individuals are pursuing (arts, the sciences, business,

engineering, etc.), and the level at which they are being undertaken (HE, FET) , in line with the jobs that are being created, in terms of both sector and level?

Issues: mis-match, displacement Also, implications for labour market activation policies e.g., training

courses, etc. And more balanced regional growth

Of interest to education, employment and unemployment policy makers

3. Employment

What do we know about the quality of jobs that are being created? Full-time v part-time, permanent v temporary, employee protection,

earnings?

Why is this of interest? Important from individual perspective, in terms of stability and financial

planning, mortgage repayments, new mortgage rules, childcare costs, property tax, water charges, etc.

Important from Government perspective too

Pre-Q4 2012 Q4 2012 OnwardsProfessional Status:Self-Employed 17.4 7.5Employee 82.0 91.9Assisting relatives 0.6 0.5

Employee Scheme:CE Scheme 1.0 4.9

State-Sponsored Scheme 0.1 1.3Non-Scheme 98.9 93.9

Employment Type:Full-time 80.4 67.9Part-time 19.6 32.1

Contract Type:Permanent Job 97.4 74.3Temporary Job 2.6 25.7

Duration of Temporary Contract:< 1 Month - 5.71-3 Months - 21.54-6 Months - 16.97-12 Months - 32.513-18 Months 1.5 6.719-24 Months 8.2 825-36 Months 14.8 2.4More than 3 Years 75.6 6.2

TU Member:Yes 34.2 7.4No 65.8 92.6

Employment Characteristics of ‘Q4 2012 Onwards’ and ‘Pre-Q4 2014’ Job Entrants

Source: Constructed with Q4 2014 QNHS Longitudinal Data (Aged 15-64), CSO

Unemployment

1. Unemployment Numbers decreasing since Q2 2012: Good news again

But, still over half of those that are unemployed are long-term unemployed (57.8%)

LTU Rate is falling (5.7% Q4 2014)

But, what is the profile of those who continue to be long-term unemployed, particularly those 2-3 years and 3 years plus?

Why is this important? Implications for labour market activation policy – knowing the profiles of

the very long term unemployed (age, gender, education, previous sector of employment, location, etc.) is important for designing measures that will be effective in assisting such individuals to reintegrate into the labour market

In Summary

On the surface, it is positive to see employment increasing and unemployment decreasing

But, there are deeper, more fundamental issues that need to be examined (e.g., where the jobs are being created, mis-match issues, quality of the jobs being created, profile of the long-term unemployed, etc.) and evidenced produced to inform policy developments in these areas

Today’s Labour Market Symposium is an opportunity for the policy-makers engaged in labour market policy development to begin this process

Thank You