Recent Development of the AIM/Impact Model

Hideo Harasawa (NIES)

1. Impact Study in AIM, IPCC, and Japan

2. Progress of AIM/Impact Models- AIM/Impact[Country]: Takahashi

- AIM/Water : Hijioka

- AIM/Impact[Korea]: Jeon & Jung

- Database for AIM/Impact: AIM/Impact-China, Profs. Sun, Li & You

3. Future Direction

OCEANEnergy and

carbon budget of Ocean

HYDROSurface water balance

Routing module

WATERSupply infrastructures

demand

ENERGYEnergy

technology and resources

CLIMATERadiation,

Energy balance, Temperature and

Sea level rise

FOODProduction and

Demand

LANDLand-use allocation and GHGs emission

CGESupply and demand equilibrium

Of goods, energy, water, land and labor

VEGVegetation dynamics

POP Population, Fertility and Mobility

HEALTHHealth impacts of

Environmental Change

ENVEnvironmental Pressure

and counter-measure CYCLEChemistry of

GHGs

AIM/IMPACTSAIM/IMPACTS

AIM/EMISSIONAIM/EMISSION

AIM/CLIMATEAIM/CLIMATE

AI/Impact Mode Structure

AIM/Impact

Water Resource

Vegetation

Agriculture

Human Health

Climate Scenario

Adaptation

IPCC :・TGCIA・AIACC・FoAR

Korea: AIM/Impact- Korea

Database・Impact, Adaptation, Cities

AIM/WATER

・Water Use in Cities

・Water Risk Management

Model Development・Human Health (advanced model)・Land Use・Dynamic Vegetation

AIM/Impact

AIM/Impact[Country]・Manual・Scenario (Climate, …)・Impact Models/Tools

MA・Ecosystem・Impacts

Global to/and Country

GEO3

ASIA Innovation

China: AIM/Impact- China

India: AIM/Impact- India

DB DB DB

DB

GCM Team

Global Warming Research Initiative

US-JP

Future Temperature Increase (SRES Scenario)

温暖化の予測結果（ＳＲＥＳシナリオによる）

By 2100,1.4～5.8℃ Temp. Increase, 9～88cm Sea Level Rise

Emission Scenario Climate Model & Prediction

Climate Scenario

→ Impact Assessment

Climate Model (GCM)

A-GCM

→AO-GCM

Regional Climate Model

Equilibrium Experiment

×2 CO2

Transient Experiment

１% Increase

SRES Scenario

Stabilization Scenario

Arbitrary Scenario +/-1,2,..℃

Equilibrium Experiment

×2 CO2

Transient Experiment

１% Increase

（SRES Scenario）

Regional Climate Scenario

・Down Scaling

・（Regional Climate Model）

IS92a ～f・BaU Scenario

ECHAM4 HadCM2 CSIRO CCCma GFDL NCAR CCSR

Research Institute(Country)

German Climate Research Center (Germ)

Hadley Center (UK)

CSIRO（Australia)

Canada Climate Model Analysis Center(Canada)

Geophyscial Fluid Dynamics Laboratory(US)

National Canter of Atmospheric Research (US)

Tokyo Univ -Climate System Research Center (Japan)

AGCM Spatial Resolution

2.8°x2.8°L19

2.5°x 3.75° L19

3.2°x5.6°L9

3.7°x3.7°L10

4.5°x7.5°L9

4.5°x7.5°L9

5.6°x5.6°L20

OGCM Spatial Resolution

2.8°x2.8°L11

2.5°x 3.75° L20

3.2°x5.6°L21

1.8°x1.8°L29

4.5°x 3.75° L12

1°x1° L20 2.8°x2.8°L17

Control CO2c Concentration

354 ppmv 323 ppmv 330 ppmv 295 ppmv 300 ppmv 330 ppmv N.A.

CO2 Conc. Rate of Increase

1% yr-1 1% yr-1 0.9% yr-1 1% yr-1 1% yr-1 1% yr-1 1% yr-1

Calc. Period (Year)

Cont : 240GHG : 240GHG+A : 240

Cont : 240GHG : 240GHG+A : 240

Cont : 219GHG : 219GHG+A : 219

Cont : 200GHG : 200GHG+A : 200

Cont : 1000GHG : 100GHG+A : 300

Cont : 136GHG : 136GHG+A : 136

Cont : 210GHG : 210GHG+A : 210

2xCO2 Global Average Temperature Increase(oC)

1.3 1.7 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.3 (est.) N. A.

2 x CO2Equilibrium Temperature (oC)

2.6 2.5 4.3 3.5 3.7 4.6 N. A.

Climate Scenarios distributed by IPCC Data Distribution Center

Regional Climate Scenario (JMA/MRI)

Future Climate (temperature) : Statistical Down ScalingFuture Climate (temperature) : Statistical Down Scaling

Future Climate(Rainfall): Statistical Down ScalingFuture Climate(Rainfall): Statistical Down Scaling

IPCC

2002. 4 IPCC 18th Plenary

・New Bureau for Fourth Assessment Report (FoAR)

Technical Paper

・Tech. Paper on Climate Change and Biodiversity

・Tech. Paper on Climate Change and Sustainable Development

・Tech. Paper on Levels of GHG in the Atmosphere and Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with climate System

AIACC

・Capacity Building （Impact Study by DC, for DC)

・GEF Fund

・UNEP, START, IPCC, TWAS

AIACC:

Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change

Objectives:

(i) To advance scientific understanding and fill gaps in knowledge regarding climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in developing countries

(ii) To build and enhance capacity in developing countries to carry out and sustain research in these areas

Period/Budget:

2- 3 years / $100,000－$250,000 per project

No. of Projects accepted: 20

Support: UNEP, START, IPCC, Third World Academy of Science

Science Director: Neil Leary (former IPCC WG2 TSU Officer)

Components

Monitoring

Climate Modeling

Impact & Adaptation Assessment

Technology Development

Integrated Assessment

Council for Science and Technology Policy(Cabinet Office of Japan)

Research Initiative

Research Initiative

Research Initiative

Research Initiative

Research Initiative

Global Warming Watershed Management

Recycle-oriented Society

Water Cycle ….

AIM

Global Warming Research Initiative

(FY. 2002～2006)

Comprehensive Study on Global Warming Impacts and Adaptation Strategy

Assessment

Indicator System

Assessment Tools

Impact Map

Detection（Region）

Impact Prediction

Ecosystem

Coast・Infra

Agriculture

Industry・Energy

Health・Life

Risk Map

・・・・・

Social, Economic, and Env. Scenario

Mitigation Options

Adaptation Options

・Technology

・Economy/Institution

・Risk and Cost

Technology Transfer to Asian Countries

Best-Mix Strategy

ﾘｽｸ、ｺｽﾄ便益

副次的便益

社会的受容性

Integrated Assessment

Scenario Analysis

持続的発展ｼﾅﾘｵ

・Technology

・Economy/Institution

・Cost

Com

pone

nts a

nd S

tudy

Pla

n

Vul

nera

ble/

Hig

h R

isk

Sect

ors a

nd A

reas

Ada

ptat

ion

in v

ulne

rabl

e se

ctor

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are

as

Proposed Topics 2

2.1 Scenario Development: Analysis and development of future scenarios for socioeconomic and environmental conditions, and consequent future emission scenarios towards the development of new IPCC scenarios for the prediction of future climate change

2.2 Integrated Model: Development of a climate-socioeconomic integrated model based on an emission model, climate model and impact model

2.3 Impact and Adaptation: Research on current and projected climate change impacts and adaptation options including developing countries in the Asia-Pacific and South American regions

2.4 Best mix Policy: Scientific evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options making use of the integrated model

Tentative U.S.-Japan Joint Project Listdeveloped by

Second Meeting of the U.S.-Japan High-Level Consultations on Climate ChangeScience and Technology Working Group

Priority Area 2:Impact and adaptation/mitigation policy assessment employing emission-climate-impact integrated models

JPCC2

2000.1 Sub-Committee Member Meeting2000.7 Writing Team Meeting (about 70 researchers)2001.1 Experts Review2001.3 Completion of the JPCC2 Report2001.3 Dissemination, Workshop, etc.

Outputs・Report “Global Warming Impacts In Japan 2001”

・Pamphlet

・Book (Now editing)

・English Book (Now editing)

Future Rice Yields predicted based on SRES Scenario (A1)

Progress of AIM/Impact

0.5 1.0 2.0 4.0 8.0 (t/ha)

0.5 1.0 2.0 4.0 8.0 (t/ha)

3 30 300 3000 30000 300000 (m3/(a-capita)

Water availability per capita, 1990

Water Resources

3 30 300 3000 30000 300000 (m3/(a-capita)

Water availability per capita, 2050

AIM/Impact (Health)

日最高気温と熱中症患者発生数

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0

日最高気温（℃）

熱中症患者発生数（人/日）

8

22

16

10

5

8

4 4 4

15

4546

28

17

24

9

4

16

12

23

43

80

23

6

1

42

8

27

21

2

6

10

2 1 2

9

31

8

2 24

86

2 1

24

36.7

30.5

32.5

35.334.9

33.0

29.6

30.7

32.231.7

32.8

34.2

29.0

26.8

28.7

32.0

36.3

29.3

34.4

27.727.0

25.8

26.9

29.7

33.0

30.2

24.2

31.0

34.0

30.6

31.8 31.7

30.0

27.327.6

33.0

32.0 31.9

31.0

35.736.1

35.1

34.4

33.0

33.9 33.4

31.5

33.6

33.8

34.635.6

30.1

34.5

31.5

29.5

28.4

31.5

29.8 29.827.7

36.9

26.4

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0.0℃

5.0℃

10.0℃

15.0℃

20.0℃

25.0℃

30.0℃

35.0℃

40.0℃

45.0℃

猛暑による影響が伺える傷病者の発生状況(東京都における最高気温と搬送者数)平成１３年７月１日～８月３１日 (７月：５３８人、８月：９０人) 東京消防庁救助課調べ

Heat Wave Impacts (last June-August)

Future Development

・AIM/Impact - Global Model

Prediction of Impacts based on SRES-based climate Scenarios

Water Supply vs. Water Demand + Food Security

Advanced Model: Health, Land, Dynamic Vegetation

・AIM/Impact[Country]

Basic tools/Data/Information

AIM/Impact-Korea, China, India

・AIM/Water - City

・Adaptation Countermeasures and Cost Estimation