Recent and Current Activities of the TC RSMC New Delhi

B.K.BANDYOPADHYAYB.K.BANDYOPADHYAY

India Meteorological DepartmentMinistry of Earth sciences

Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-1100 03.E-Mail : bkbando1705@yahoo.co.in

Layout…… .

� Introduction

� Products and Services provided by RSMC New DelhiForecasting Systems

� Performance of Forecasts

�� Challenging issues in implementing/ improving the services

� Training

� Publications

� Future Plans

Introduction

� Out of 80 forming over the globe, five form over north Indian Ocean� Ratio of TCs between Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea – 4:1� Year to year variation - Quite large. Minimum No. of cyclones in a

year - One (1949),� Maximum No.of cyclones in a year –Ten (1893,1926,1930,1976)�� Bay of Bengal is a vast warm pool adjoining the warm pool of theBay of Bengal is a vast warm pool adjoining the warm pool of the

western North Pacific. western North Pacific. �� The ocean currents in the Bay of Bengal are quite complex.The ocean currents in the Bay of Bengal are quite complex.�� The bathymetry of this coast is also very complex due to a numbeThe bathymetry of this coast is also very complex due to a number of r of

rivers, deltaic regions and rivers, deltaic regions and orographyorography

A shallower bathymetry piles up the surge more

Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC)-Tropical Cyclone, New Delhi

Monitoring and prediction of Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Issue of Tropical weather outlook/ Cyclone Advisories to the WMO/ESCAP Panel Countries (Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Srilanka, Maldives, Oman and Pakistan) and Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per guidelines of ICAO

Products and Services provided by RSMC New Delhi

Functions of RSMC - New DelhiMonitoring Cyclonic Disturbances over the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea)

Running Numerical Models for Cyclone Track prediction (QLM) and Storm Surge prediction models (IIT Delhi)

Issue of Tropical weather outlook/ Cyclone Advisories to the Panel Countries

Issue of Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per the guidelines of ICAOCollection, Processing & archival of data pertaining to tropicalcyclones over the NIO and their exchange with member countries of the Panel

Implementation of Regional Cyclone Operation Plan of WMO/ESCAP Panel

Preparation of Annual Review, RSMC reports and updating of Cyclone operational cyclone operational plan

Research on Storm Surge, Track & Intensity Prediction Techniques

Cyclone hazard pronedistricts of India basedon

1.frequency of total cyclones,

2.total severe cyclones,3.actual/estimatedmaximum wind strength,

4. PMSS associated withthe cyclones and

5. PMP for all districts

Very highly prone

Highly prone

Moderately prone

Less prone

Issue of Cyclone Bulletins• Bulletin for India coast• Tropical weather outlook : Once a day based on 0300 UTC observation• Special Tropical Weather Outlook : Twice a day based on 0300 and 1200

UTC observation during depression stage• Tropical Cyclone Advisories : Every three hourly during cyclone period• Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Aviation as per the guidelines of ICAO every

six hourly during cyclone period• Quadrant winds (Structure Forecast)

Storm surge prediction over the WMO/ESCAP Panel region.

� Till 2008, RSMC, New Delhi was issuing storm surge prediction for Indian coast only.

� Based on the recommendations of WMO Expert Team to Myanmar afterNargis and subsequent recommendation of WMO TCP, it has been decided to issue storm surge guidance to member countries based on IITD model.

� It has been implemented since 2009 with effect from cyclone, Bijli in April 2009.

Bulletins and Warnings issued by Area Cyclone Warni ng Centre

�� Four stage cyclone warningFour stage cyclone warning

�� Sea area bulletinSea area bulletin

�� Coastal weather bulletinCoastal weather bulletin

�� Bulletins for Indian navyBulletins for Indian navy

�� Fisheries warningsFisheries warnings

�� Port warningsPort warnings

�� Aviation warningAviation warning

�� Bulletins for departmental exchangesBulletins for departmental exchanges

�� Bulletins for AIR/ Bulletins for AIR/ DoordarshanDoordarshan / press/ press

�� CWDS bulletinsCWDS bulletins

�� Warnings for registered/ designated users.Warnings for registered/ designated users.

� 1. Pre-cyclone watch – Issued to Cabinet Secretary and Senior Officials indicating formation of a cyclonic distur bance –potential to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone and the coastal belt likely to be affected.

� 2. Cyclone Alert - Issued at least 48 hrs in advance indicating expected adverse weather conditions.

� 3. Cyclone warning – Issued at least 24 hrs in advance indicating latest position of Tropical Cyclone, int ensity, time and point of landfall, storm surge height, type of damages expected and actions suggested.

� 4. Post-Landfall Outlook - Issued about 12 hrs before landfall & till cyclone force winds prevail; District Collecto rs of interior districts besides the coastal areas are also inform ed.

� De-Warning’ Finally a ‘ message is issued when the Tropical Cyclone weakens into Depression stage.

�� TeleTele--faxfax�� TelephoneTelephone�� VHF/HFRTVHF/HFRT�� CWDSCWDS�� Police WirelessPolice Wireless

Cyclone warning DisseminationCyclone warning Dissemination�� AFTN (Aviation)AFTN (Aviation)�� Internet (eInternet (e --mail)mail)�� WebsitesWebsites�� Radio/TV networkRadio/TV network�� SMSSMS

Frequency and time of issue of TCAC bulletin

� Tropical Cyclone Advisories for civil aviation are issued for international

aviation as soon as any disturbance over the north Indian Ocean attains

or likely to attain the intensity of cyclonic storm (sustained surface wind

speed ≥ 34 knots) within next six hours.

� These bulletins are issued at six hourly intervals based on 00, 06, 12 and

18 UTC synoptic charts

� The time of issue is HH+03 hrs.

� This text bulletin is issued from cyclone stage till it weakens into a deep

depression. It can be issued in special cases if the time of formation or

dissipation is different from above times

Example of TCAC graphic bulletin

Dissemination through IMD websiteThe TCAC bulletin is also uploaded in cyclone page of IMD website by the NWP Division. For this purpose, the graphic bulletin prepared by Cyclone Warning Division is sent to NWP Division by e-mail.

Dissemination through ftp to ADRR, Hong KongThe TCAC bulletin is also disseminated to Aviation Disaster RiskReduction (ADRR) Centre of WMO located at Hong Kong Meteorological Observatory. For this purpose, the TCAC advisory bulletin is uploaded in ftp site as described below.

Dissemination of TCAC bulletins

Forecasting Systems

SN

Parameters Bulletin issued before initiative

Bulletin issued after initiative(2011)

6 Landfall point and time

Qualitative Quantitative with lat/long of landfall and time

7 Prognostic and diagnostic features

Nil Detailed features are explained in the Technical bulletin.

08 Graphical presentation of observed and forecast track

No Yes

Improvement of Cyclone warning products and bulletins

09 Adverse weather (Heavy rain, Gale wind and storm surge)

Storm surge for Indian coast only

For coasts of all member countries of WMO/ESCAP Panel

Development/ utilisation of new analysis tools and techniques

Parameters

Tools/technique by end of 2007 Additional tools/technique for 2012

Genesis Synoptic, satellite (visible & IR imagery), NWP analysis (T254), Coarser ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP, Quikscat, Ascat, AMV

Microwave imagery, Oceansat-II, Tropical Cyclone Module, high resolution T574 & 382, ECMWF, ARP-MeteoFrance, JMA, WRF, GPP

Location monitoring

Ship, Buoy, limited AWS, Quikscat, Ascat, AMV

Enhanced AWS network, GPSsonde, buoy, Oceansat-II, Tropical Cyclone Module, Microwave products

Parameters

Tools/technique by end of 2007 Additional tools/technique for 2012

Intensity monitoring

Satellite (Visible and infrared imagery), Radar, Quikscat, Ascat, AMV

Microwave imagery, enhanced DWR network, buoy network, Oceansat-II, Tropical Cyclone Module, ECMWF, GFS-574 model analyses, AODT (?)

Development/ utilisation of new analysis tools and techniques

Parameters

Tools/technique by end of 2007

Additional tools/technique for 2012

Genesis forecast

Synoptic, satellite, radar

Microwave imagery, Dynamical statistical model (GPP)

Track forecast

Synoptic, satellite, radar, CLIPER, Limited NWP guidance (Coarser ECMWF, UKMET, NCMRWF (T80), LAM, MM5, QLM),

High resolution ECMWF, IMD GFS(382),Experimental (T574), NCEP GFS, ARPS (Meteo-France), NCMRWF, MME(NWP), MME(TCM), Experimental HWRF, WRF (ARW), WRF (NMM), modified CLIPER, ISRO GA technique, Tropical Cyclone Module, GEFS

Development/ utilisation of new analysis tools and techniques

Parameters

Additional tools/technique by end of 2011

Strike probability

- Strike probability based on EPS and super EPS (TIGGIE products), individual sources, GEFS

Intensity forecast

- NWP models (Global, meso scale), HWRF, Dynamical statistical model (IMD), Tropical Cyclone module

Rapid intensification

Tools/technique by end of 2007

Dynamical statistical model

Development/ utilisation of new analysis tools and techniques

Performance of Forecasts

Track forecast error (km)

(b) Track forecast skill (%)

Year

Year

Track forecast skill (%)

Average (2009-11)24 hr- 130 km, 48 hr-262 km 72 hr- 386 km

Skill compared to CLIPER model

24 hr- 27%, 48 hr- 39% 72 hr- 50%

North Atlantic(NHC)24hr- 95km,48hr- 150 km72hr- 250 km

NW Pacific(JMA)24hr- 113km,48hr- 208 km72hr- 310 km

Mean landfall point forecast error (km)

Mean landfall time forecast error (hr)

Year

Year

Cone of Uncertainty : Data and MethodologyCone of Uncertainty : Data and MethodologyForecast period (hrs) Standard error (nm) Standard error (kms)

12 40 75

24 80 150

36 110 200

48 135 250

60 165 300

72 190 350

Time of delivery of services

Average time consumed by RSMC, New Delhi to issue c yclone warning bulletin since last three hourly synoptic o bservations

Challenging issues in implementing/ improving the services

LINKAGE WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITIES

� NATIONAL LEVEL :

1. HIGHER OFFICIALS LINKED WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENT

INCLUDING PORT, SHIPPING, TRANPORT, TELECOM AUTHORITIES

2. NATIONAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA

� STATE LEVEL :

1. STATE DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY

2. FISHERMEN, FISHERY OFFICIALS, PORTS, COASTAL SHIPS

3. LOCAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA

� DISTRICT LEVEL :

1. DISTRICT COLLECTORS

LAST MILE CONNECTIVITY :

MULTI-LINGUAL CWDS BULLETINS ARE BROADCAST BY PUBLIC

ADDRESS SYSTEM BY THE RECEIVING OFFICES

� ALL INDIA RADIO

Public education and reaching out

� Publication via various channels such as websites, pamphlets distributed at schools, district offices, and in the form of short advertisement broadcast by radio and TV,

� Promoting public education and conducting outreach activities such as talks, exhibitions, TV documentary series and publicity campaigns

� Press conference on the eve of a potential TC threating the coast

� Introduction of Warning Bulletins through FM radio, community radio and HAM radio services during cyclone period.

Other Challenges

� The other major challenges include :

(i) assimilation of regional data and development of suitable global and regional models for cyclone prediction with suitable modification of model physics, resolution and initial and boundary conditions

(ii) development of ensemble prediction system based on IMD GFS and WRF models.

Future Plans

Storm surgeStorm surgeCurrent status :Current status : Residual storm surge over a district

Future plan:Future plan:

�� More specific prediction of storm surge due to cyclone. At preseMore specific prediction of storm surge due to cyclone. At present, the nt, the

forecast is given for minimum unit area of district.forecast is given for minimum unit area of district.

�� Prediction of total water level (TWL)Prediction of total water level (TWL)

�� Modeling of Coastal area inundation due to cycloneModeling of Coastal area inundation due to cyclone

�� Storm surge modeling for deltaic regions like, Storm surge modeling for deltaic regions like, SunderbansSunderbans, Mahanadi , Mahanadi

delta and Cauvery delta.delta and Cauvery delta.

�� Preparation of Preparation of NomogramsNomograms based on IITD model for different coastal based on IITD model for different coastal

belts of WMO/ESCAP regionbelts of WMO/ESCAP region

�� Probable maximum storm surge for different coastal belts of Probable maximum storm surge for different coastal belts of

WMO/ESCAP regionWMO/ESCAP region

Seasonal forecast

�� Extended range outlookExtended range outlook

�� Based on predicted MJO and Climate model forecasts, we may Based on predicted MJO and Climate model forecasts, we may

issue outlook for issue outlook for cyclogenesiscyclogenesis during next seasonduring next season

�� Seasonal frequency of cyclonic disturbancesSeasonal frequency of cyclonic disturbances

�� To be introduced for monsoon and postTo be introduced for monsoon and post--monsoon seasons based monsoon seasons based

on dynamical statistical method like other Ocean basins. on dynamical statistical method like other Ocean basins.

�� It is challenging due to less frequency of It is challenging due to less frequency of genessisgenessis, large , large

interannualinterannual variation and typical characteristics of North Indian variation and typical characteristics of North Indian

OceanOcean

• IMD is planning hiring of instrumented aircraft for probing tropical cyclones both from core and periphery during 2013-14

•• Collect observations in the TC core environment using research aircraft

• Demonstrate the use of the drop soundings in providing improved numerical guidance for genesis, track and intensity prediction of the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone

FDP on landfalling cyclone

SWFDP-South Asia

� RSMC, New Delhi has given two proposals for SWFDP-South Asia

� It is under consideration of WMO/RA-II� SWFDP –South Asia (I) � North India and adjoining countries for high impact weather events like

thunderstorm, hailstorm, monsoon and tropical cyclone including stormsurge

� SWFDP South Asia (II)� South Peninsular India and adjoining countries of Sri Lanka and

Maldives� Thunderstorm, Monsoon, Cyclone, Ocean waves

RSMC Website

� IMD is developing a website exclusively for RSMC, New Delhi

� The data, forecast and products will be available to all the countries of the region through this website.

• RSMC, New Delhi is imparting training on cyclone warning to the

WMO sponsored forecasters of various countries since 2005.

• The annual training of two weeks duration for Cyclone forecasters

from WMO/ESCAP panel countries along with the forecasters from

Area Cyclone Warning Centres/Cyclone Warning Centres of India

Meteorological Department

• In 2012 it was organised during 20th February to 2nd March .The

Cyclone forecasters one each from Srilanka, Maldives and Thailand

participated in the same training programme.

Training

PublicationsReports

� Annual RSMC Report on Cyclonic Disturbances

� Annual Cyclone Review Report of WMO/ESCAP Panel countries

� Annual Tropical Cyclone Operation Plan (TCP-21)

� WMO/ESCAP Panel News

� Annual Report of Cyclone Warning Division, IMD and MoES

� News Letters : TSU Pakistan, SMRC

� Preliminary reports of cyclonic disturbances

� Met. Monograph

� Publication in reviewed Journals and Books

� SOPs

� Benchmarking

Data Archival and publication1. Six hourly best track data of cyclones over north Indian Ocean since

1990 in digital form

2. 12 hourly data in cyclone Atlas during 1891-2009

Data from 1877-1890 are also available in hard copies in 1979 edition of cyclone Atlas

3. Adverse weather and damage reports

4. Development of cyclone rainfall atlas

Thank youThank you