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ULAB Thought Leadership Article June 30, 2020
RE-OPENING THE BANGLADESH ECONOMY:
SEARCH FOR A FRAMEWORK
AHSAN SENAN
Lecturer, Economics and Social Sciences Department, BRAC University and
Projects Coordinator, Center for Enterprise and Society
OLIUR RAHMAN
Research Associate, Center for Enterprise and Society, ULAB
SAJID AMIT
Associate Professor, ULAB, and Director, Center for Enterprise and Society, ULAB
IMRAN RAHMAN
Special Advisor to the Board of Trustees, ULAB
BACKGROUND
The lockdown ended in Bangladesh on May 31, and the economy has tentatively started to re-
open. This is not a return to life as normal - not yet at least and there is nothing to indicate that
life may return to what it used to be any time soon - but a cautious dip of a toe in the water.
Area-wise lockdowns continue, large shopping malls operate in limited capacity, education
institutions are closed, as are many restaurants and venues where people congregate en
masse. The city’s wards in which the infection rate goes above a certain level are being
sequestered off and put under a hard lockdown. Officially, the government continues to instruct
citizens to avoid going out, unless necessary. Therefore, we have had a partial re-opening in
Bangladesh at best. This decision to partially re-open the economy from the beginning of June
coincides with similar decisions taken by countries around the world. But the COVID-19
situation is not playing out in the same timeline in all countries and there have been expert
opinions suggesting that the lockdown in Bangladesh, which came too late, may have ended too
soon.
Most of the countries that are reopening their economies are either beyond the peak infection
point, as measured by the number of new daily infections detected, or in some cases, have had
no new virus infections for some time. By contrast, Bangladesh decided to lift the lockdown
while the number of daily new infections was increasing rapidly and has continued to increase
2
since (same is true for neighbors India and Pakistan as well). There is a clear lack of a long-
term multi-phased re-opening plan.
Figure 1 Daily new cases of COVID-19, Bangladesh
Notes: Blue-bars: daily new infections during lockdown; Green-bars: daily new infections after lockdown; Red-line: seven-day moving average.
To cite the example of Singapore, the government has articulated a three-stage re-opening plan,
with an explicit understanding that these steps may be rolled-back quickly if there are instances
of new outbreaks.1 Qatar, similarly, has developed a four-stage re-opening plan. In Bangladesh,
however, certain industries have been allowed to re-open on the basis of how critical they are to
the economy, while others have not. But a careful consideration or framework with which these
decisions are being made, is missing.
Moving away from a ‘hard’ lockdown scenario, the government initiated a ‘soft’ lockdown
approach in June that locks down a ward if its infection rate exceeds 40 in 100,000. These
wards will be deemed as the Red Zone and movements will be severely restricted. If the
infection rate is less than 3 in 100,000, the ward will be considered a Green Zone and be
allowed relatively free movement. Anything in between will be an Orange Zone with some
restrictions on movement. In a manner of comparison, Germany has plans to re-impose
lockdown in areas that experiences infection rate above 50 in 100,000. This color-coded zonal-
lockdown system implies a more granular approach than the lockdown that was imposed and
may work better.
India followed a similar scheme and infection rates appear to have fared better since the
implementation of this scheme. However, like Bangladesh, gauging India’s performance at this
stage is difficult. India is yet to reach its peak infection point and the number of daily new
infections continues to increase even as many other countries overcome their peak. The
persistence of the disease in this region may be due to gaps in the lockdown strategy or in
some cases, the absence thereof.
31-May2,545
17-Jun4,008
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
6-Apr 13-Apr 20-Apr 27-Apr 4-May 11-May 18-May 25-May 1-Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun
3
Table 1 Country Responses to COVID-19
Early Responders
Examples: Japan, South Korea, Vietnam
Quick mobilization of resources in the face of COVID-19 threat Use of technology to contact-trace No-tolerance isolation and quarantine Rapid awareness raising communication with the people Quick control of the spread of disease, relatively low infection and death rate Economies have re-opened, but strict vigilance is still being maintained
Late Adopters
Examples: Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States
Initial hesitancy in acknowledging the threats of the disease leading to high numbers of COVID-19 related infection and death Late adoption of prevention measures and sweeping implementations leading to eventual control of the situation Economies have started to carefully re-open with spikes in infection data beginning to re-appear
Followers Example: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan
Late acknowledgement of COVID-19 and imposition of safety measures and restrictions Safety measures mostly follow 'best' international practices Lax enforcement of measures observed often Re-opening of economy by following other countries' timeline, even as infection and death rates continued to rise in the country
Defectors Example: Brazil, Sweden
Brazil government ignored the threats posed by COVID-19 for a long time They currently have a rapidly increasing daily infection and death rate; number of deaths second only to USA Swedish government lacks the mandate to impose a lockdown on the people They have had to rely on the people to be voluntarily responsible and follow health guidelines Daily infection numbers still exhibiting a slight upward trend
At this juncture, a pressing topic of discussion is to figure out a framework for re-opening the
economy, in light of useful international examples and experiences. However, before such a
discussion, it is important to have a brief discussion on the arguments for re-opening the
economy in Bangladesh. These arguments, as it turns out, calls for more nuances than may first
appear.
4
THE CASE FOR RE-OPENING THE ECONOMY
There are basically two reasons for re-opening the economy now: the economic concern and
the people concern.
The economic concern regarding re-opening the economy
Globally, the US has lost about 30 million jobs so far, followed by China’s 26 million jobs. The
University of Cambridge has calculated a potential loss of up to US$82 trillion for the global
economy over the next five years.2 Now, coming to Bangladesh, although the scale of the
problem is less, the severity, in terms of the proportion of impact, is not. A recent study found
that there are 47.3 million extremely poor people in
Bangladesh who are at high economic risk due to
COVID-19.3 The study also found that at least one-
member from 34.8 percent of the surveyed households
have lost their jobs between March 2020 and May
2020, and average household income loss between
February and May has been 74.0 percent. Over 1.4 million migrant workers have returned or
are on their way back home due to job loss. Growth rate has been projected at between 1.6 and
3.0 percent for FY2019-20, and as low as one percent for FY2020-21, the lowest figure in 37
years.4 Poverty rate is expected to jump up from 21.8 percent in 2018 to over 35.0 percent in
2020-21.
The lives versus livelihood argument is weak in Bangladesh. In developed nations, it makes
sense for a prolonged lockdown if necessary: the economy sacrifices some livelihood to save
some lives. However, in Bangladesh the size of marginal communities is enormous. A
considerably large portion of workers (and their families) in Bangladesh lack adequate savings,
job-security, and safety-net protections. Therefore, there is no trade-off for these people:
sacrificing livelihood inadvertently means sacrificing lives as well. In effect, enforced lockdowns
secure the lives of the elites and sacrifice the livelihoods of the poor.
The industries are suffering as well. More than 85.0 percent of Bangladesh’s export earnings
come from RMG. The leading RMG-export destinations for Bangladesh are the US and EU
market. Both have been hit hard with COVID-19 and orders worth US$3.8 billion have been
cancelled or suspended so far. When orders start to flow in again, if Bangladesh does not stand
ready to accept the orders, Vietnam, one of the global examples of how to effectively combat
spread of COVID-19, and its RMG sector stands ready to welcome them. Such an external
shock will be very harmful for Bangladesh economy. The government has announced a BDT 50
billion (US$588 million) stimulus package for export-oriented industries. In the short-run, this
may help industries from not shutting down and ensuring that employees continue to be paid,
but clients lost may not return.
What is true for export-oriented industries is also true for other domestic industries. The longer
the lockdown, the longer the recovery-period. Once a point is crossed, return to the pre-crisis
level may be all but impossible in the short and medium term.
In effect, enforced lockdowns
secure the lives of the rich and
sacrifice the livelihoods of the
poor.
5
The people concern regarding re-opening the economy
An astoundingly high 87.0 percent workers in Bangladesh are employed in the informal sector.5
These workers include but are not limited to rickshaw-pullers and shopkeepers; the farmers and
the construction-workers. When the economy is not open, these people are not working. Work
from home (WFH), unfortunately, is not for the likes of them. There are 2.2 million rickshaw-
pullers plying their trade in Dhaka City alone and these people are not drawing monthly checks
from their employers to keep working from home and they do not have access to banking
services, let alone savings.
The government, and private organizations such as BRAC, have been working towards helping
the poor and vulnerable people suffering the ill-effects of the pandemic and lockdown. In the
beginning of June, the government allocated over 200,000 tons of rice for poor and vulnerable
families. Another BDT 1.2 billion has been distributed as cash-relief. The number of the
beneficiaries stands at 38.4 million people (8.8 million families) across the country.6 While the
aggregated figures appear impressive, it is important to look at the size of per-household
assistance. One of the government’s assistance schemes is cash-transfer to poor families via
mobile apps. Under the initiative, BDT 2,500 is to be transferred to each family.
Similarly, BRAC is providing BDT 3,000 to poor families under one of their initiatives. However,
the 2020 poverty-line for a household of four-members in Bangladesh has been estimated at
BDT 10,886 (upper poverty-line) and BDT 8,939 (lower poverty-line) per month - far in excess of
the relief being provided.7 This is not to discredit the efforts of the government and other
philanthropic organizations but to emphasize that a regime of assistance and transfers is not a
long-term sustainable solution. Not to mention that by their very nature, even in the best-case
scenario these transfers will at most give families enough to stay alive and nothing more.
Furthermore, corruption involving 55 local government representatives, who were later
suspended, in the distribution of rice to the vulnerable families and nepotism in cash-transfer
schemes have proved that government’s welfare initiatives might not bring the benefits to the
poorest and underscored the necessity of a sustainable long-run solution.
At least it can be argued that the poorest families are in the thoughts of the government and
NGOs. Their needs have been acknowledged and attempts made to cover the gap. On the
opposite end of the wealth spectrum, for highly trained and educated workers and their families,
work from home facilities, coupled with enforceable contracts and existence of savings for rainy-
days just as these, mean that COVID-19 pandemic and the economic shutdown - financially
difficult and emotionally draining as it may be - may not prove to be economically devastating.8
However, middle-class families have no such safety-nets. Around 2 million manufacturing jobs
were lost between March and April. With such a high existing poverty level in Bangladesh, it is
difficult to foresee much help forthcoming for the lower middle-income and middle-income
households who have fallen on hard times.
What then is obvious is that Bangladesh can ill-afford to keep its economy in a state of
lockdown for as long as some developed countries may be able to. There are genuine and valid
grievances about the timing of lifting the lockdown in Bangladesh (even as experts were saying
that it was time to impose even stricter, complete lockdown). But it goes to reason that any
6
eventual re-opening was always going to come before the pandemic was well under control of
the authorities.
Since the re-opening is happening anyway, what is important is to:
• Identify the critically important sectors for Bangladesh economy and assess which of
these sectors have high/low risks of spread of infection; and
• Based on the above as well as international best practices, develop a phased, multi-level
roadmap for re-opening the economy, with provisions for rolling-back the steps if new
outbreaks begin to appear.
IDENTIFYING THE IMPORTANT SECTORS AND ASSESSING THEIR SUSCEPTIBILITY TO SPREADING THE DISEASE
We do not yet have a tried and tested roadmap to safely re-opening the economy. Almost no
country’s re-opening plans have gone perfectly. However, one common denominator from most
of the re-openings so far has been their staggered nature. Critically important sectors have been
given permission to begin operations first and sectors with high-risk of spreading the disease
have remained closed. Grocery stores, for example, have been allowed to remain open during
the pandemic by and large. Some of the retail stores that had shut down have also started to
begin operation around the world, although under strict guidelines.
Meanwhile, all sporting events have been on a pause, international sporting events have been
cancelled or postponed, and a handful of countries have experimented with sporting events with
empty stadiums (mainly to not renege on lucrative broadcasting contracts). Countries have had
to individually identify their vital sectors, assess the risks of viral transmission in their standard
modes of operation, and decide which sectors to re-open and which sectors to keep under
lockdown for the time being.
The authors of this study undertook a fact-finding mission to figure out what sectors are of
critical importance to the economy of Bangladesh and which of these sectors also carry with it
the threat of high risk of COVID-19 transmission. We conducted 100 expert interviews with
entrepreneurs, senior leaders and analysts, for their opinions on which sectors are critical to the
re-opening of the economy and which sectors may be the most prone to transmission risk. The
research followed a snowball approach coupled with the expert interview, i.e., key informant
interview approach. The list of experts is provided in Annex 1.
The findings are not entirely unexpected. Export-oriented sectors, such as RMG, leather, jute,
shrimp, etc. are viewed as being the most critical sectors for Bangladesh economy, along with
banking services and public transport. What is however worrying is that these are also the high-
risk sectors. The sectors that are critical for the economy and need to re-open are also the
sectors that are expected to spread COVID-19 the most. Other sectors, such as Online
Learning and eCommerce, posing relatively little threat of transmission of the disease, can even
use the COVID-19 lockdown as an opportunity to expand and grow and increase their market
relevance. We are going to look into each of these sub-groups of sectors in some details.
7
Figure 2: To Open or Not: A Quadrant Analysis of Sectors
The framework used for the next round of analysis follows a Quadrant Analysis methodology
(see Figure 2). Figure 3 gives a visual representation of the expert opinions.
Sectors that are vital for the economy yet carries high risk of transmitting the disease with it
(RMG, Banks, etc.) are the “Alert Sectors”. If the economy is re-opening, it is to let these
specific sectors to start their operations again. However, it is important to maintain high level of
alertness and vigilance. Strict guidelines must be developed by an appropriate authority and
implemented without excuse. Failure to do so will not only lead to a likely second-wave of
COVID-19 cases but also shut down these vital sectors again, exacerbating the harm. In a later
section, we will discuss in details the international best practices to re-opening the economy
which may inform the guidelines that these Alert Sectors in Bangladesh should follow. For
traditional brick-and-mortar Banks, the solution may be to simply migrate most of their services
to an online platform, which is sure to reduce the foot-
traffic in their establishments. For RMG and other
similar factories, a more elaborate guideline will have
to be developed.
Sectors that are important for the economy but pose
relatively less risk to spread the disease (Pharmaceuticals, Grocery, etc.) are the “Allow
Sectors”. These sectors, for the large part, have been allowed to remain open during the
lockdown due to their importance and are yet to be identified as vectors of spreading the
disease. As a result, they could be just allowed to continue operating as usual (standard health
guidelines still apply), and if possible, their modes of operations may be studied in details to
extract learnings for other sectors to adopt.
ALLOWHigh
Importance, Low Risk
ALERTHigh
Importance, High Risk
ADVANCE
Low Importance,
Low Risk
AVOIDLow
Importance, High Risk
… movement away from physical stores towards eCommerce was
already happening. COVID-19 has catalyzed this process.
8
Figure 3 Re-opening the Bangladesh economy: Critically important sectors versus transmission risks of each sector
Note: Other Exports include leather, jute, shrimp, etc.; Services include government services, corporate services, NGO services, etc.; Manufacturing includes cement, ceramics, FMCGs, pharmaceuticals, tobacco, etc.; Small Retail includes boutiques, bookstores, electronics, etc.; Pharmaceuticals and Groceries include online platforms and home-delivery services. Source: ULAB Center for Enterprise and Society Survey Data
Pharmaceuticals
eCommerce
Online Learning
Groceries
Banks
Services
Manufacturing
Real Estate
RMG
Retail
Other Exports
Public Transports
Markets/Bazaars
Aviation
Hotels
Restaurants
Malls
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
Critical Im
port
ance (
norm
aliz
ed s
core
)
Transmission Risk (normalized score)
9
In the long-run, migration to Online Learning allows a complete re-thinking of how education is
administered, providing additional flexibility to students and instructors, reduce overhead costs,
etc. The move towards Online Learning, at least at the higher and tertiary level, has been
embraced by students and educators worldwide. COVID-19 merely makes adoption an
immediate necessity for most educational institutions, rather than something to be implemented
gradually over many years. The benefits of this migration are manifold. The institutional costs of
universities and colleges can go down drastically.
International collaborations, such as courses being jointly offered by specialists from multiple
countries, inviting guest lecturers, etc. all become possible. The flexible nature also allows
students to pursue other interests (hobbies or part-time employment) and instructors to focus
more on their research activities and not get bogged-down with tutorial responsibilities.
Similarly, the retail sector can also benefit by taking the right steps during this pandemic. The
enforcement of social distancing, lockdowns and other measures have led consumers to ramp
up online shopping, social media use, internet telephony and teleconferencing, and streaming of
videos and films. This has resulted in spikes in business-to-consumers (B2C) sales and an
increase in business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce.
The increase in B2C sales is particularly evident in online sales of medical supplies, household
essentials, and food products.9 In many ways, this is the next logical step and movement away
from physical stores towards eCommerce was already happening. COVID-19 has catalyzed this
process. A large-scale adoption of this model will considerably lower the market-pressure on
retail-space demand (which is expensive) and facilitate both lower-cost transactions and lower
transaction costs. Existing startups such as Pathao have rapidly expanded their business model
(adding deliveries of groceries, medicines, and other retail products to their rooster) during the
lockdown. New players, both small and medium, have entered the market.
As the saying goes, necessity is the mother of invention. COVID-19 is proving that necessity is
also the mother of technology adoption. Most people stuck home during the lockdown will have
personally contributed to the surge in demand of eCommerce. And after initial hesitation, UGC
has made way for large-scale, integrative adoption of Online Learning in higher education in the
country. There are still various other steps that the government can take to encourage this
process, such as providing cheaper and more reliable internet connection and facilitating easy
and quick resolutions to consumer complaints against eCommerce businesses. But as long as
nothing is done to impede these sectors, their continued growth in the near-future seems
assured. These Advance Sectors represent the way forward for the economy and they should
be incentivized and encouraged to expand their operations. Standard safety measures will still
apply during the pandemic.
Finally, low-priority and high-risk sectors (Hotels, Malls, Restaurants, etc.) are the Avoid
Sectors. Their cost-benefit ratio is high and they should be low on the government’s list of
priority sectors to re-open and be avoided altogether during these early days.
10
Box 1 Re-opening certain sectors can cause more good than harm; re-opening
others may have the opposite effect
An alternate way to study which sectors ought to open and which ought to stay closed is to compare the inherent benefits of a sector against the risks of re-opening them. For example, the perceived benefits of keeping the pharmaceutical open and/or migrating to Online Learning are considerably higher than the risks associated with their operations. Keeping them open accrues more benefit to the economy than harm - indicated by green bars. Other sectors, expected to cause more harm than good are shown with red bars.
It is interesting to look at two sectors that have been identified as Alert Sectors: Banks and RMG. In terms of their importance to the economy and how much ‘good’ they will do, both score high. However, the perceived risk - how much harm they can cause - is considerably higher for the RMG sector. As a result, if all the potential risks of re-opening these two sectors are fully realized, re-opening Banks will cause benefits to the economy whereas re-opening the RMG sector will not. As a result, they need to be carefully monitored to ensure that all the potential risks are not realized.
Similarly, Public Transport has also been identified as a critically important Alert Sector. But the benefit they will do does not measure up to their potential for harm. Unless public transport services strictly follow health and safety regulations, their re-opening will cause considerable harm to the economy.
Note on interpreting the Figure: The highest score available to a sector is 100. A sector that is of
critical importance to the economy and posing no threats to the transmission of the disease would
get a score of 100. Conversely, a sector of no critical importance to the economy but carrying very
risk of transmission would get a score of -100.
For Restaurants, for example, all that the lockdown means is that their dine-in facilities have to
shut down. But they can pro-actively explore new avenues to engage with clients. This need not
only be limited to the adoption of eCommerce and delivering orders directly to the customers’
homes - eCommerce coverage for restaurants and other food places is more or less universal in
Dhaka City and increasingly popular in other large cities around the country. However,
restaurants can go further, by redesigning their menu and pricing strategies to reflect this new
state of operation for them. Selling batches of “frozen” versions of popular dishes, or other
unique ingredients, condiments, etc. may prove to be a success with customers well.10
(40.00)
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11
For large malls, facilitating a unified umbrella of eCommerce facilities (including online space to
showcase wares, means of engaging with prospective clients, access to delivery services, etc.)
to all the retailers under its roof can take them from being in a state of complete lockdown to a
state of partial re-opening without increasing the risk of infection to the economy.
Now that we have identified which sectors are safe to re-open, allowed to stay open, or even
encouraged to expand - and which sectors to keep under lockdown - we can begin our
discussion on re-opening strategies. Our focus, for the obvious reasons, will be on the safe re-
opening and operation of Alert Sectors. The Allow Sectors are already doing fine without
needing interventions. And as discussed, barring any impediments, the Advance Sectors also
seem to be doing well on their own.
RE-OPENING THE ECONOMY
We are proposing a three-phase re-opening strategy for Bangladesh. In the first phase, Alert,
Advance, and Allow Sectors will be allowed to operate. The Alert Sectors include RMG and
other export-oriented sectors, Banks, and Public Transport. Different sectors will need different
safety guidelines which will be discussed below.
The Advance Sectors, including Online Education and eCommerce, owning much to their low-
risk index, do not require strict health and safety guidelines for their operations. We will discuss
some general health and safety guidelines that should be followed, especially for eCommerce
couriers. The Allow Sectors are already operational and we may encourage a business-as-usual
scenario for them. Avoid Sectors, in their traditional mode of operation, remain under complete
lockdown. However, there are opportunities for them to expand the types of services they
provide which allows them to remain at least partially open.
In the second phase, once the spread of the disease is under control, Avoid Sectors, such as
malls, restaurants, hotels, aviation, etc., may be allowed to open. It is still too soon for
Bangladesh to speculate on when that may be. Once the peak-infection point is reached and
daily infection numbers begin to fall, a concrete timeline may be developed. During this time, for
certain Avoid Sectors such as restaurants, malls, small boutiques and retailers, eCommerce can
still play a big role in their survival. For the Alert Sectors, some of the strict guidelines may be
relaxed.
In the third phase, the pandemic is over, a viable vaccine for the disease has been developed,
and the economy can fully re-open and return to the pre-COVID days. Most of the health and
safety guidelines may be relaxed, although some of them may be maintained indefinitely.
12
Figure 3 Three-Phased Re-opening of the Economy
Phase 1
This phase is characterized by an over-stretched health-care sector and an out-of-control pandemic. The critically important sectors have to re-open, but under strict guidelines. Safer sectors are allowed to operate as usual, and few are incentivized to expand.
Allow
Business as usual, with standard health and safety guidelines to be followed
Alert
Allowed to operate, but under strict guidelines
Advance
Business as usual, with standard health and safety guidelines to be followed; incentivized to expand and grow
Avoid
Complete lockdown of some sectors (aviation, hotels). Other sectors may partially operate (restaurants, retail stores, etc.)
Phase 2
This phase is characterized by a falling infection rate, and a pandemic that is starting to come under control, but not completely yet. Some of the restrictions from Phase 1 maybe relaxed and some riskier sectors allowed to re-open.
Allow
Business as usual, with standard health and safety guidelines to be followed
Alert
Allowed to operate but under guidelines; some restrictions from Phase 1 maybe relaxed
Advance
Business as usual, with standard health and safety guidelines to be followed
Avoid
Partial opening of most sectors, but under strict guidelines
Phase 3
This phase is characterized by some future date when the pandemic is over and the global economy has started to return to normal. Most restrictions under Phase 1 and Phase 2 may be relaxed, although some may be held in perpetuity.
Allow
Business as usual, with standard health and safety guidelines to be followed
Alert
Business as usual, with standard health and safety guidelines to be followed
Advance
Business as usual, with standard health and safety guidelines to be followed
Avoid
Business as usual, with standard health and safety guidelines to be followed
Provisions for the authorities to roll-back the relaxing of restrictions with no notice period, if the number of infections begin to rise, will apply during all three phases. The qualifying-criteria for roll-backs should be clearly articulated and communicated to businesses and the people so that it is possible to anticipate roll-backs and act accordingly.
Alert Sectors
Office and factories
For Banks, the opportunity lies in updating their IT infrastructure and migrating most of their
services to an online platform. Digital banking, robo-advisory, and adoption of other FinTech
services are all possible solutions. Interoperability between banks and mobile financial services
have been implemented to some degree this year and may be integrated into the system more.
All these will simultaneously increase accessibility of banking services and also reduce foot-
traffic in banks.
It is unlikely that all banking services can migrate online, at least not in the short-run. Therefore,
banks will have to physically reopen their branches in a limited capacity. It is important to
COVID-proof the offices. Multiple studies have identified indoor interactions as vectors of super
13
spreaders: the odds of transmission in a closed, indoor space are several orders of magnitude
higher than in open-air environments.
One study has found evidence that out of 7,324
documented cases in China, only one outbreak had
occurred outside.11 Another study from Japan
calculated the risks of infection indoors to be almost
19-times higher than the risk of infection in an open-air
environment.12
In addition, there is strong evidence that spread of the
disease may be linked to airflow: the presence of
strong air-currents from air-conditioning, as is the case
in most offices, is linked with infection of people nearby.13 Therefore, opening banks, and other
offices, where people sit close to each other for hours, talking and coughing and sneezing,
poses high risks. Steps that may be taken to mitigate these risks:
• Masks should be mandatory at all times. Offices should consider providing masks to
employees since they need to be changed every few hours. Recent studies indicate that
the virus rarely spread through surfaces. Most of the spread is person-to-person.14 This
makes masks mandatory. Hong Kong, in this regard, is a good example.15 The city of 7.5
million residents have suffered only four deaths due to COVID-19. Experts ascribe this
low rate to the widespread and pre-existing practice of wearing masks outdoors in Hong
Kong.
• Work from home and in shifts: If certain activities are migrating online and certain tasks
can be conducted from home, there is no need for a full-opening of bank branches (and
other offices). Whenever possible, work should be done from home. This will not only
make the office a safer space, but also reduce the burden on public transportation -
another high-risk service sector that has re-opened. Other schemes such as two
separate six-hour shifts each day may be implemented that will immediately reduce the
number of people in an office in any given time by half.
• Follow a zigzag sitting arrangement so that workers do not have to sit side-by-side. It is
also a good time to pull-back on the open-office culture and reinstitute cubicles.
Employees ought to be encouraged to conference call even within the same room,
especially if it is a large room, and close-proximity face-to-face interactions can be
avoided.
• Implement mandatory temperature testing of all workers when they enter the workspace
and intermittently throughout the workday. Anyone showing symptoms of COVID-19
should be sent home. Even if this provision is misused, a “better safe than sorry”
approach has to be utilized.
• Office-meetings can move entirely online, even if all the attendees are present in office.
For the factories, there are similar, perhaps worse risks. The threat of working indoors with a
large number of people over an extended period of time is potentially higher in a factory than in
an office. In addition, factories face an additional burden: the socio-economic profile of factory
Whenever possible, work should be done from home. This will not
only make the office a safer space but also reduce the burden on public transportation - another
high-risk service sector that has re-opened.
14
workers is poorer than office workers. Be it for financial concerns, existing health concerns, lack
of access to services and facilities, lack of awareness, or general apathy towards imposed rules
and regulations, the infection-rate and death-rate are both higher in the poorer-segments of the
population.16 This means that there is an added responsibility on the administrators and
factories that are re-opening to ensure a safe and secure work-environment for their workers.
Outside and on public transport
A small portion of the population has access to private transportation and vast majority of the
people in Bangladesh rely on public transport. The latter represents a critically vital service for
the people and the economy. However, given that the risk of spread of coronavirus is higher
indoors, in cramped places, with strong air-currents, public transport represents a very high-risk
sector to re-open.
Theoretically, certain mitigation strategies may help, although there are limits to the practicality
of implementing them on a large-scale in Bangladesh. These include limiting the number of
passengers so that social-distancing can be maintained; zig-zag sitting pattern; embarking and
debarking on the rides with a more orderly and restrained manner than is usual; queue-control;
ePayment systems; mandating masks to be worn by all passenger; etc. In addition, the following
are strategies that may be explored:
• Flexible timing: Mandating flexible timing from offices and factories that are opening will
cut down on the rush-hour traffic. Different work-hours for public and private sector
offices, or for offices and factory from different sectors, or different work-hours for
different office-blocks organized in a checker-pattern, are all possible solutions to these.
Within an office or a factory, employees may be given different reporting and departure
times.
• Dedicated bike-lanes may reduce the burden on public-transports. Despite Dhaka (or
other cities in Bangladesh) not being a very bike-friendly city such as Copenhagen,
Tokyo, or Vancouver, there is still a large number of riders. Implementing bike-lanes not
only helps during this pandemic but sets a good precedence for the future and possibly
lower the number of automobile-bike collisions drastically. Subsidizing the bike-industry
and incentivizing people to buy more bicycles may be possible policy avenues to
explore.
• Public transport should be designated quiet zones: Speaking creates aerosols,
increasing the risks of spread of the virus and speaking loudly increases the risks of
spread, considerably.17 Unnecessary small-talk, talking on the phone, laughing out loud,
etc., inside a public transport should be strictly discouraged.
• Bring ticket-prices back down to pre-COVID levels: public transportation has opened
primarily to help the lower-income and middle-income groups. These groups of people
have been economically hit hard by the three-month lockdown. Increased ticket-prices
will be yet another hardship to their already over-stretched resources. If not to help these
people, it makes no sense to re-open such a high-risk sector.
It is not possible to strictly observe everyone at all time while they are out and about in public
spaces. Therefore, success in preventing the spread of the disease will depend largely on the
15
people taking personal responsibility. That may prove to be challenging in Bangladesh.18
However, in the past, massive awareness-raising campaigns have proved successful. With
greater penetration of means of mass-communication in recent years and the existence of a
fundamental awareness about the threats of COVID-19 among the populace, a focused and
targeted campaign may bear some fruits.
Advance Sectors
Necessity is driving the widespread adoption of both these sectors. However, concerted and
strategic interventions from the authorities in these sections can still play a big role in
developing these sectors and Bangladesh’s overall COVID-19 response.
The University Grant Commission’s decision to allow universities to administer online classes
and exams during the Summer 2020 semester is a step in the right direction. The move has
seen immediate steps by various universities to develop dedicated education platforms and
learning management systems (LMS). Instructors are being provided training to be ready for the
upcoming semester and students are being provided need-based financial assistance to
upgrade their home facilities to be ready for the new semester.
However, the cost and reliability of internet connection remains a big issue. Slow-moving
universities may lack the technical competence to develop online academic modules. Moreover,
the financial assistance that (not all) universities are providing mostly extend to gaining access
to good quality internet connection whereas many households are without personal computers
or tablets. Lowering internet bandwidth cost, ensuring greater accountability of internet service
providers, concessionary financing schemes for students (and working professionals) to
purchase electronic devices, providing technical know-how and training facilities to universities
struggling with migration to online learning, are all strategies that ensure the growth of this
sector, and encourage a larger number of people to stay home. In Phase 1 and Phase 2, such
strategies will very likely expedite the economy’s progress towards Phase 3.
eCommerce has been gradually growing in Bangladesh for a decade now, with an uptick in the
last five years. However, the issue of unreliability and fraudulent practices remains. Exclusive of
a few large eCommerce entities, trust among the
customers is low, which has prevented its widespread
adoption, even during the pandemic period.
The technical infrastructure to make eCommerce
available and viable is present in Bangladesh. What
the authorities can help with, is ensuring a speedy and
reliable means of lodging complaints, dispute
resolution, and redressal of grievances from customers. Moreover, eCommerce entails an
additional layer of risk that is not present in Online Learning: any good purchased has to be
safely bagged and then transmitted via a courier, who will be coming in contact with a large
number of people every day. Even though recent studies indicate that surface-to-skin
transmission of the disease is low, it is not zero and therefore, strict compliance with health and
safety standards from the couriers is paramount.
Even though different wards and
zones may exist as separate
entities on paper, they operate as
one uninterrupted continuum as far
city life is concerned.
16
Avoid Sectors
As discussed already, the Avoid Sectors should be the last to re-open due to their relatively less
importance to the economy of the country, and high risk-index. Therefore, their full re-opening
should only happen once the spread of the virus is well under control. However, as we have
discussed, incentivizing eCommerce sector is also going to help a large portion of the Avoid
Sector partially operate during the lockdown and in the first two phases. Some sectors (Aviation)
will eventually re-open before others (Malls). Therefore, the strategy for the Avoid Sectors has to
be one of prudence, implemented on an ad hoc basis.
FINAL THOUGHTS
After the partial re-opening from June 1, the government has enforced a new criterion for re-
imposing lockdown, on a ward-by-ward basis, if the infection rate of the area exceeds 40 in
100,000 people. However, two major issues remain:
1. Whether a fully enforceable lockdown of red zones is practically possible, even if there is
political will to see it happen. In addition, if people from different zones are freely inter-
mingling until high rate of infection is detected, the virus will still be spread via people
who travelled in and out of the zones.
2. If the lockdown is to prevent red-zone residents from infecting people from orange and
green zones, what happens to the uninfected residents of the red-zones? If a hard
curfew is not imposed within the red-zones, the 40-in-100,000 rate will quickly snowball
to a much higher number.
Not surprisingly, the number of daily infections and daily deaths have continued to climb. The
granular zonal-lockdown approach may yet prove to be inappropriate for Bangladesh, because
of its population density. Even though different wards and zones may exist as separate entities
on paper, they operate as one uninterrupted continuum as far as urban life is concerned.
Separating Banani from Gulshan, for example, seem like a futile endeavor: if there is an
outbreak in one area, there will be an outbreak in the other as well.
However, it is important to acknowledge that no country has yet devised a definitive roadmap to
re-opening the economy. Many countries that have found success in curbing the spread of the
virus and have been able to re-open the economy have seen spikes in the number of new
cases. China has had to re-quarantine certain communities; France and South Korea have had
to re-close schools after opening them; Germany has seen a rise in number of new infections
after partial re-opening. In a nutshell, no re-opening so far has gone perfectly smoothly, but
some have gone according to plan, inasmuch as the issues that came up were anticipated and
contingency plans developed ex ante. Bangladesh’s re-opening plan, therefore, does not need
to be perfect. It needs to be versatile and contingent upon various pre-identified concerns.
17
ANNEX 1: LIST OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS
Respondent Job Title Company/Organization
Ovick Alam Founder/Entrepreneur WebAble Digital
Md Nafeez Al Tarik CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Asian Tiger Capital Partners
Md. Monirul islam, FCA CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
BDV Asset Management Limited
Minhaz Anwar CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
BetterStories
Rahat Ahmed CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Anchorless Bangladesh
Ali Imam Founder/Entrepreneur EDGE Asset Management
Dr. Ismail Sayeed Founder/Entrepreneur VIOS Healthcare
Mustafa Azim Kasem Khan CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
FloWater Solutions Ltd.
Saria Hossain Founder/Entrepreneur Snipro Limited, Knots Logistics Ltd, AltaFuel Ltd
Farzana Ahmed Julie Economist/Academic/Analyst Start Fund Bangladesh
Sabera Anwar Founder/Entrepreneur Panache Hub
Nazmul Karim Director/Senior Leader (past or present)
Aavishkaar Frontier Fund
Ahsanur Rahman Associate Director BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage Ltd
Mahmudul Huq CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Janata Jute Mills Ltd
Arifa Ghani Rahman Associate Professor of English and Humanities
University of Liberal Arts Bangladesh
Sylvana Q. Sinha CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Praava Health
Ahsan khan Chowdhury CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
PRAN RFL Group
Kamran Bakr CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
A. K. Khan & Co. Ltd.
Md Nazmus Shakib Director/Senior Leader (past or present)
BAY Developments Limited
Mominul Islam CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
IPDC Finance
Zulfiqer Russell Journalist Bangla Tribune
Akhter Matin Chaudhury Founder/Entrepreneur Black Swan Consultancy
Hossain Khaled CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Anwar Group
Mubasher Munaf Moin Founder/Entrepreneur Core Knowledge Ltd
18
Respondent Job Title Company/Organization
Kaiser Kabir CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Renata Limited
Maksudul Islam CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Shohoz
Shahab Enam Khan Economist/Academic/Analyst Jahangirnagar University
Asif Khan CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
EDGE Research and Consulting Ltd
Fahim Ahmed CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Pathao
Asif Ibrahim CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Newage Group
Syeda Samara Mortada Economist/Academic/Analyst UN Women
Hussain Elius CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Pathao
Arfan Ali CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Bank Asia Limited
Amina Rahman CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
The Bookworm
Mohsin Ahmed CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
New Zealand Dairy Bangladesh
Shariful Islam CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Bangladesh Brand Forum
Mustafa Hasan (Shamim) Chief Operating Officer Bay Developments Ltd
Dr Ashikur Rahman Economist/Academic/Analyst PRI (Policy Research Institute)
Nazim Farhan Choudhury CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Adcomm Group
Anis A. Khan CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Mutual Trust Bank Limited, IDLC Finance Limited & Standard Chartered Bank
Adeeb Hossain Khan CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
KPMG
Sarah Karim Director/Senior Leader (past or present)
PwC
Mahtab Uddin Ahmed CXO/Managing Director Robi Axiata Ltd.
Kaniz Fatema CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Bay Developments Ltd.
Runa Khan Founder/Entrepreneur Friendship
Ifty Islam Founder/Entrepreneur Asian Tiger Capital Partners
Selim Reza Farhad Hussain
CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
BRAC Bank Ltd
Shehzad Munim CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
British American Tobacco
Iftekhar Ahmed Khan Founder/Entrepreneur El Toro/Saltz/Raffinato
Syed Mahbubur Rahman CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Mutual Trust Bank
Iftekhar A. Khan Founder/Entrepreneur Bay Developments Ltd.
19
Respondent Job Title Company/Organization
Mustafa Hasan (Shamim) Chief Operating Officer Bay Developments Ltd
Imtiaz Firdousi Travel Consultant Corporate Travel Consultants
Zakir Husain CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Apex Polymer Group
Mashur Rahman Director/Senior Leader (past or present)
Nordic Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Bangladesh
Arshi Haider Founder/Entrepreneur bti ltd
Durjoy Rahman CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Winners Creations Ltd
Selima Ahmad Founder/Entrepreneur
Nitol - Niloy Group of Companies / Bangladesh Women Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Dr Mahbubur Rahman Chowdhury
Founder/Entrepreneur Bangladesh EYE HOSPITAL , Bangladesh Specialised Hospital
Mohammed Shahidul Islam
CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
HNS GROUP
Adnan Imtiaz Halim CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Sheba Platform Limited
Zeeshan Kingshuk Huq Founder/Entrepreneur sindabad.com
Mirza Sadrul Alam Economist/Academic/Analyst Access Telecom (BD) Ltd.
Mustafizur Rahman Economist/Academic/Analyst Centre for Policy Dialogue
Sadaf Saaz Siddiqi Founder/Entrepreneur Sidko Apparels Ltd
Arif Khan CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
IDLC Finance
Akber Hakim Founder/Entrepreneur Engineering Resources Int.
Syed Ferhat Anwar Economist/Academic/Analyst IBA University of Dhaka
Adeeb Anand Choudhury Economist/Academic/Analyst DEKKO ISHO Group
Kashef Rahman CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
ShareTrip Ltd
Jillur Rahim Economist/Academic/Analyst University of Liberal Arts Bangladesh
Fidah Tahrim Hossain CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Dulal Enterprise Pvt Limited
Niaz Patwary Economist/Academic/Analyst University of Liberal Arts Bangladesh
Arafatul Islam Akib Founder/Entrepreneur Startup Chattogram
Hisham Rumman Founder/Entrepreneur Shophopper
Nafees Mohammed Badruddin
Managing Partner Fillip Partners
Shagufe Hossain Founder/Entrepreneur Leaping Boudnaries
A Farjad Ahmed Director/Senior Leader (past or present)
MNC Bank
20
Respondent Job Title Company/Organization
Anhar Chowdhury CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Classic Engineering Corporation Ltd.
Khan Muhammad Saqiful Alam
Economist/Academic/Analyst Intelligent Machines Limited
Afroza Ahmed Director/Senior Leader (past or present)
J. A. Architects Ltd.
Dr. Farzana Nahid Director/Senior Leader (past or present)
North South University
Mohammad Tamim Economist/Academic/Analyst BRAC University
Ishtiaque Mahmud Head of private sector revenue
Dhaka Tribune
Sanjida Khandoker Founder/Entrepreneur The2hourjob
Eushra Nashmin Founder/Entrepreneur WorkStation 101
Farjad Siddiqui Investment Professional IFC, World Bank Group
Saad Quayyum Economist/Academic/Analyst Economist
Sadiat Mannan Director/Senior Leader (past or present)
Ofazuddin Spinning Mills Limited
Adnan Al Nahyan Director/Senior Leader (past or present)
Sustainable Agro Integration Ltd(SAIL), (SBSL)
Sameera Zaman Economist/Academic/Analyst Universiry of Liberal Arts Bangladesh; Digital Agency Nordic
Sarker Nazmus Saqib Deputy Magazine Editor Dhaka Tribune
Hasib Rashid Founder/Entrepreneur Build Better Bangladesh Foundation
Helal Mohammad CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
revinr
Naba Nashit Tareque Senior Manager NDB Capital
Tazrian shahid Economist/Academic/Analyst University of Liberal Arts Bangladesh
Ummay Marzan Jui Journalist The Business Standard
Anirban Bhowmik CXO/Managing Director (past or present)
Swisscontact Bangladesh
21
REFERENCES
1 Singapore’s lockdown, known as the Circuit Breaker, started on 19th May and ended on 1st June. Details
about their three-stage re-opening strategy can be found here:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singapores-COVID-19-circuit-breaker-ends-on-june-1-
economy-to-reopen-in-three-
phases?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=stfb 2 The study conducted by the University of Cambridge estimated US$82 economic loss in the worst-case
scenario over the next five-years due to COVID-19. Under the speedy recovery scenario, economic
loss is limited to US$3.3 trillion. The study findings are discussed in this World Economic Forum
article: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/coronavirus-COVID19-pandemic-econamy-money-
depression-recession/ 3 BRAC, DataSense, Unnayan Shamannay (2020). COVID-19 and National Budget 2021: Rethinking
Strategy for BoP People. 4 The World Bank estimates that Bangladesh’s growth for FY2019-20 will be 1.6 percent, and for 2020-21,
1 percent: https://tbsnews.net/economy/world-bank-forecasts-only-16-gdp-growth-bangladesh-90592.
The government, however, still plan to achieve a growth rate of 5.2 percent in FY2019-20 and 8.15
percent in FY2020-21: https://www.dhakatribune.com/business/economy/2020/06/11/government-
sets-ambitious-8-2-gdp-growth-target-for-fy21. 5 Asian Development Bank and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (2012). The Informal Sector and Informal
Employment in Bangladesh: Country Report 2010. Manila, Philippines. 6 These two articles, by Dhaka Tribune and The Independent, discusses the government’s various relief
efforts so far: https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2020/06/06/coronavirus-govt-continues-
relief-work and http://www.theindependentbd.com/post/247544 7 This article shows a detailed breakdown of the calculation of Bangladesh’s poverty lines for 2020:
https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/views/how-much-is-needed-for-the-cash-transfer-programme-
1589991212 8 White-collar workers are suffering as well. A recent CES Consumer Pulse survey administered among
the urban working professional suggests that at least 84 percent of the respondents are cutting back
on the spending and at least 67 percent are experiencing drop in their income. More details here:
https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/education/ulab-ces-conducts-covid-19-consumer-pulse-survey-
1588842488 9 World Trade Organization (May 2020). E-Commerce, Trade and the COVID-19 Pandemic. URL:
https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/COVID19_e/ecommerce_report_e.pdf 10 Al fresco dining, although highly unlikely in a congested city of Dhaka, may be explored if at all
possible, in unique cases. 11 Qian, H; Miao, T; Zheng, X; Luo, D; and Li, Y (April 2020). Indoor Transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
MedRxiv. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058 12 Nishiura, H; Oshitani, H; Kobayashi, T; Saito, T; Sunagawa; T; Matsui, T; Wakita, T; Suzuki, M (April
2020). Closed Environments Facilitate Secondary Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019
(COVID-19). MedRxiv. Doi: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2 13 Lu, J; Gu, J; Li, K; Xu, C; Su, W; Lai, Z; et al (2020). COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air
Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020. Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 26, no. 7.
Doi: https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200764
22
14 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s instructions on how COVID-19 spreads can be
found on here: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-COVID-
spreads.html 15 Article about how quick adoption of universal mask-wearing helped stem the spread of the virus in
Hong Kong: https://www.vox.com/2020/5/18/21262273/coronavirus-hong-kong-masks-deaths-new-
york 16 Why people may be unwilling to follow COVID-19 directives: https://tbsnews.net/thoughts/why-people-
dont-follow-covid-19-instructions-85564 17 One of the reasons why Japan is doing so well in its COVID-19 response, especially since the country’s
famously busy and tightly-packed train-system is still operating is the passengers’ willingness to
follow health guidelines, including not talking. More here:
https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2020/06/coronavirus-risk-transit-france-japan-trains-subway-
buses/612841/
