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Rating Corporativo pela Fitch Considerações Iniciais e
Abordagem para Estatais
Presença na América Latina
LATAM Fitch Credentials
Fitch’s Coverage LATAM
Corporates*
Monitored Ratings
Fitch’s Coverage of Public Finance &
Infrastructure Markets
600+
90%
Fitch’s Coverage of LATAM Banks
and Financial Institutions**
Monitored Ratings
Fitch’s Coverage of LATAM
Sovereigns and Supranationals
29
1,000+ 6,100+
Number of Global Investor
Interactions
Local and Cross-border Structure
Finance Transactions
340+
Subsidiaries, branches and affiliates:
• Fitch Ratings: Bogotá, Colombia
• FIX-SCRL Buenos Aires, Argentina
• Fitch Ratings Brasil Ltda.: Sao Paulo, Brasil
• Fitch Ratings Brasil Ltda.: Rio de Janeiro, Brasil
• Apoyo & Asociados Internacionales S.A.C.: Lima, Peru
• Fitch Costa Rica Calificadora de Riesgo S.A., San José, Costa Rica
• Fitch Centroamérica: San Salvador, El Salvador
• Fitch Chile Clasificadora de Riesgo Ltda.: Santiago, Chile
• Fitch México S.A. de C.V.: Monterrey, Mexico
• Fitch México S.A. de C.V.: Mexico City, Mexico
• Fitch República Dominicana S.R.L.: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Fitch Source: May 2019 *** Sovereigns (20) / Supranationals (9)
Líder em Ratings Corporativos: Escala Nacional e Internacional
3
Novos nomes publicados pela Fitch
2018 Unipar Carbocloro S.A.
Hidrovias do Brasil S.A.
Energisa Mato Grosso S.A.
Natura Cosméticos S.A.
Nova Transportadora do Sudeste S.A. –
NTS
Aliança Geração de Energia S.A.
Unigel Participações S.A.
M Dias Branco
Alupar Investimento S.A.*
Light S.A., Light Energia S.A.
Light Serviços de Eletricidade S.A.*
Hospital Albert Einstein
Companhia de Gás da Bahia - Bahiagás
EDF Norte Fluminense S.A.
LM Frotas
Kroton Educacional S.A.
Saber Serviços Educacionais S.A.
Localiza Fleet S.A.
Enel Brasil S.A.
Celg Distribuição S.A.
Energisa Tocantins S.A.
Energisa Sul Suldeste S.A.
Instituto Hermes Pardini S.A.
Energisa Transmissora de Energia S.A.
Companhia de Gás de Minas Gerais -
Gasmig
2019
Vamos Locação de Caminhões, Máquinas
e Equipamentos S.A.
AES Tiete Energia S.A.
Eneva S.A.
Totvs S.A.
Top Service Serv. e Sist. – Grupo GPS
Hapvida Participações e Investimentos S.A.
Azul S.A.
Tegma Gestão Logística S.A.
Enel Green Power Volta Grande
Nova Cobertura Empresas
2018 YTD 2019
26 9
8 10
2 2
YTD 2019
174
110
78
Empresas Existentes
Rating Corporativo pela Fitch
Outubro, 2019
Gustavo Mueller, Diretor
Considerações Iniciais e
Abordagem para Estatais
Conteúdo
5
Seção Slide
1) Visão geral – Ratings 3 – 9
2) Atribuição de Rating Inicial 10 – 11
3) Metodologia Corporates 12 – 27
4) Metodologia GRE 28 – 33
Visão Geral –
Ratings
1
Visão Geral – Definição de Rating
7
Rating é uma avaliação da
vulnerabilidade relativa de um emissor a
default em obrigações financeiras.
• Escala Internacional
IDR (Issuer Default Rating – Rating de Inadimplência do Emissor)
em Moeda Estrangeira
IDR em Moeda Local
• Escala Nacional
Rating Nacional
Visão Geral – Principais Escalas de Ratings
Visão Geral – Escala Internacional
Graus de Investimento Graus Especulativos
AAA BB+
AA+ BB
AA BB-
AA- B+
A+ B
A B-
A- CCC+
BBB+ CCC
BBB CCC-
BBB- CC
C
RD
D
Visão Geral – Escala Nacional
Ratings Nacionais de Longo Prazo
AAA(bra) BB+(bra)
AA+(bra) BB(bra)
AA(bra) BB-(bra)
AA-(bra) B+(bra)
A+(bra) B(bra)
A(bra) B-(bra)
A-(bra) CCC(bra)
BBB+(bra) CC(bra)
BBB(bra) C(bra)
BBB-(bra) RD(bra)
D(bra)
Visão Geral – Observação e Perspectiva do Rating
• Observações e Perspectivas de Ratings são partes do rating de crédito e
indicam a provável direção da classificação. Estas podem ser “Positiva”,
“Negativa” e “Indefinida”. A Perspectiva também pode ser “Estável”.
• Observação:
Indica que a mudança deverá ocorrer em um período de até seis
meses.
• Perspectiva:
Indica que a mudança deverá ocorrer em um período de até dois
anos.
Visão Geral – Principais Benefícios do Rating
• Ampliação na diversificação do acesso a recursos de terceiros
• Melhora na transparência e na governança
• Potencial redução no custo financeiro
• Instrumento de gestão e comparabilidade
Atribuição de
Rating Inicial
2
Atribuição de Rating Inicial
14
Envio de questionário – solicitação de informações
Recebimento e análise das informações
Management meeting
Comitê Rating Inicial Rating Público
Rating Privado Monitoramento
Metodologia
Corporates
3
Metodologia Corporates – Como se Chega a um Rating?
16
• Corporate Rating Criteria (Metodologia de Ratings
Corporativos)
• Através da avaliação de fatores qualitativos e
quantitativos que abrangem os riscos financeiros
e de negócios de emissores de renda fixa e suas
respectivas dívidas.
Principais Fatores de Rating
17
Rating
Risco País/ Ambiente
Operacional
Perfil de Negócios
Perfil Financeiro
Estrutura do Grupo
Estratégia da Administração/
Governança Corporativa
Risco do Setor
Principais Fatores de Rating
18
• Avaliados em base em:
Perfil histórico e projetado;
Diferentes ponderações para empresas
distintas.
i. Risco do Setor
• Afeta significativamente a capacidade de uma empresa de gerar fluxo de
caixa.
Mais Arriscados – setores em declínio, altamente competitivos,
intensivos em capital, cíclicos ou voláteis.
Menos Arriscados – setores com menos concorrentes, com altas
barreiras à entrada de novos participantes ou com demanda
previsível.
ii. Ambiente Operacional
• Riscos e oportunidades de mudanças sociais, demográficas, regulatórias
e tecnológicas.
• Diversidade geográfica.
• Tendências na expansão e consolidação do setor.
• Excessos de capacidade instalada que podem pressionar preços.
• Região de atuação.
ii. Ambiente Operacional
• Estágio do ciclo de vida útil do setor ou dos segmentos de produtos.
• Risco político, situação econômica, regime legal, desenvolvimento e
transparência dos mercados onde o emissor opera.
• Empresas cíclicas são avaliadas com base em previsões, índices de
crédito e rentabilidade “através do ciclo”.
ii. Ambiente Operacional
• O risco do negócio é medido pela volatilidade do fluxo de caixa através
da análise do ciclo do negócio.
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
EBITDA Mean
Companhia B
Desv. Pad. =1
Companhia A
Desv. Pad. = 2
iii. Perfil de Negócios
• Capacidade de suportar pressões competitivas (ex: posição nos
mercados de atuação e habilidade de influenciar preços).
• Desempenho operacional (geralmente depende da diversificação de
produtos, da área geográfica de vendas, dos principais consumidores e
fornecedores, e da posição de custo comparativa).
• Exposição cambial: operacional e financeira
• Escala: pode ser um fator de influência.
iv. Estratégia da Administração / Governança Corporativa
• Estratégia operacional.
• Tolerância a riscos.
• Políticas financeiras.
• Forte nível de governança corporativa não beneficia o rating.
v. Estrutura do Grupo
• Relação entre matrizes e subsidiárias é considerada.
• Verificação da existência de garantias cruzadas e cláusulas de cross-
default faz ratings convergirem.
• Determinação se a holding deverá ter algum desconto nos ratings pela
subordinação de suas obrigações dependerá de possíveis garantias das
empresas operacionais a suas obrigações e do grau de cobertura do
serviço de sua dívida pelos dividendos recebidos.
vi. Perfil Financeiro
• Análise baseada em números históricos e, principalmente, nas
projeções.
• Avaliação da estrutura de capital (setores menos voláteis aceitam maior
alavancagem).
• Perfil da dívida (cronograma de vencimento e estrutura do
endividamento).
• Risco de liquidez / Flexibilidade financeira.
• Fluxo de caixa e rentabilidade – tendências, robustez, volatilidade,
previsibilidade.
• Ratings não são baseados em covenants financeiros.
Navigator
• https://corporate-navigator-tool.fitchratings.com/#/disclaimer
Navigator
Environmental Social and Governance Score - ESG
• O foco do risco ESG está no impacto nas expectativas da Fitch sobre o
perfil financeiro e de negócios da empresa
4 5
Conceitualmente
inaplicável para o
setor
Conceitualmente
aplicável ao setor,
mas altamente
improvável que
tenha impacto na
classificação
Conceitualmente
aplicável ao setor,
mas não afeta o
rating, por meio
de gerenciamento
ativo ou
relevância
limitada
Tornou-se um
fator na
classificação,
mas por si só não
leva diretamente
a uma mudança
na perspectiva ou
no rating
Por si só, provoca
mudança de
classificação ou
de perspectiva
Neutro Baixa relevância Relevante
Environmental Social and Governance Score - ESG
Metodologia
GRE
4
Metodologia GRE
• Government-Related Entities (GRE) Rating Criteria – Metodologia de
Rating de Entidades Vinculadas a Governos
• https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10056710
• Combina análise do perfil de crédito individual e da chance de suporte
do controlador no caso de dificuldades financeiras de uma GRE
• Força do Vínculo: avalia a força do vínculo entre o governo e uma
GRE
• Incentivo ao Suporte: avalia o incentivo do governo em prestar
suporte à GRE quando necessário.
Metodologia GRE
• Força do vínculo
Situação legal, participação e controle acionário
Histórico de suporte e expectativas
• Incentivo ao Suporte:
Implicações sociopolíticas da inadimplência da GRE
Implicações financeiras da inadimplência da GRE
Metodologia GRE
GRE – Sabesp
• Sabesp: FC/LC IDR ‘BB’ / Perspectiva Estável
• Controlador: Estado de São Paulo: FC/LC IDR ‘BB-’ / Perspectiva Estável
Press Release Sabesp (30/04/2019): “Seguindo a Government-Related Entities
Rating Criteria, a Fitch avalia a Sabesp em base individual....”
- Baixo incentivo / ausência de histórico de suporte
- Atividade independente do controlador (financeira e operacional)
- Moderadas implicações sociopolíticas em caso de default – potenciais
substitutos privados
GRE – Petrobras
• Petrobras: FC IDR ‘BB-’ / Perspectiva Estável
• Controlador: governo Federal: FC/LC IDR ‘BB-’ / Perspectiva Estável
Press Release Petrobras (12/03/2019)
“Vínculo Com o Soberano: Os ratings da Petrobras são limitados pelo rating
soberano do Brasil e refletem os incentivos muito fortes do governo para dar
suporte à companhia...”
- Suporte de bancos públicos / alteração de regras
- Importância estratégica para a economia do país
ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK:
HTTPS://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC
WEB SITE AT WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA, AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT,
CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE, AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF
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RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.
Copyright © 2019 by Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004.
Telephone: 1-800-753-4824, (212) 908-0500. Fax: (212) 480-4435. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. In issuing and maintaining its
ratings and in making other reports (including forecast information), Fitch relies on factual information it receives from issuers and underwriters and from other sources Fitch believes to be credible. Fitch
conducts a reasonable investigation of the factual information relied upon by it in accordance with its ratings methodology, and obtains reasonable verification of that information from independent sources, to
the extent such sources are available for a given security or in a given jurisdiction. The manner of Fitch’s factual investigation and the scope of the third-party verification it obtains will vary depending on the
nature of the rated security and its issuer, the requirements and practices in the jurisdiction in which the rated security is offered and sold and/or the issuer is located, the availability and nature of relevant
public information, access to the management of the issuer and its advisers, the availability of pre-existing third-party verifications such as audit reports, agreed-upon procedures letters, appraisals, actuarial
reports, engineering reports, legal opinions and other reports provided by third parties, the availability of independent and competent third-party verification sources with respect to the particular security or in
the particular jurisdiction of the issuer, and a variety of other factors. Users of Fitch’s ratings and reports should understand that neither an enhanced factual investigation nor any third-party verification can
ensure that all of the information Fitch relies on in connection with a rating or a report will be accurate and complete. Ultimately, the issuer and its advisers are responsible for the accuracy of the information
they provide to Fitch and to the market in offering documents and other reports. In issuing its ratings and its reports, Fitch must rely on the work of experts, including independent auditors with respect to
financial statements and attorneys with respect to legal and tax matters. Further, ratings and forecasts of financial and other information are inherently forward-looking and embody assumptions and
predictions about future events that by their nature cannot be verified as facts.
As a result, despite any verification of current facts, ratings and forecasts can be affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating or forecast was issued or affirmed.
The information in this report is provided “as is” without any representation or warranty of any kind, and Fitch does not represent or warrant that the report or any of its contents will meet any of the
requirements of a recipient of the report. A Fitch rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security. This opinion and reports made by Fitch are based on established criteria and methodologies that
Fitch is continuously evaluating and updating. Therefore, ratings and reports are the collective work product of Fitch and no individual, or group of individuals, is solely responsible for a rating or a report. The
rating does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. Fitch is not engaged in the offer or sale of any security. All Fitch reports have shared
authorship. Individuals identified in a Fitch report were involved in, but are not solely responsible for, the opinions stated therein. The individuals are named for contact purposes only. A report providing a
Fitch rating is neither a prospectus nor a substitute for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with the sale of the securities. Ratings may be
changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch. Fitch does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Ratings do not comment on the adequacy of market price, the suitability of any security for a particular investor, or the tax-exempt nature or taxability of payments made in respect to any security. Fitch
receives fees from issuers, insurers, guarantors, other obligors, and underwriters for rating securities. Such fees generally vary from US$1,000 to US$750,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent) per
issue. In certain cases, Fitch will rate all or a number of issues issued by a particular issuer, or insured or guaranteed by a particular insurer or guarantor, for a single annual fee. Such fees are expected to
vary from US$10,000 to US$1,500,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent). The assignment, publication, or dissemination of a rating by Fitch shall not constitute a consent by Fitch to use its name as an
expert in connection with any registration statement filed under the United States securities laws, the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 of the United Kingdom, or the securities laws of any particular
jurisdiction. Due to the relative efficiency of electronic publishing and distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to three days earlier than to print subscribers.
For Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea only: Fitch Australia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services license (AFS license no. 337123) which authorizes it to provide credit ratings to
wholesale clients only. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persons who are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001.
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ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK:
HTTPS://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC
WEB SITE AT WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA, AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT,
CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE, AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF
CONDUCT SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR
RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.
Copyright © 2019 by Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004.
Telephone: 1-800-753-4824, (212) 908-0500. Fax: (212) 480-4435. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. In issuing and maintaining its
ratings and in making other reports (including forecast information), Fitch relies on factual information it receives from issuers and underwriters and from other sources Fitch believes to be credible. Fitch
conducts a reasonable investigation of the factual information relied upon by it in accordance with its ratings methodology, and obtains reasonable verification of that information from independent sources, to
the extent such sources are available for a given security or in a given jurisdiction. The manner of Fitch’s factual investigation and the scope of the third-party verification it obtains will vary depending on the
nature of the rated security and its issuer, the requirements and practices in the jurisdiction in which the rated security is offered and sold and/or the issuer is located, the availability and nature of relevant
public information, access to the management of the issuer and its advisers, the availability of pre-existing third-party verifications such as audit reports, agreed-upon procedures letters, appraisals, actuarial
reports, engineering reports, legal opinions and other reports provided by third parties, the availability of independent and competent third-party verification sources with respect to the particular security or in
the particular jurisdiction of the issuer, and a variety of other factors. Users of Fitch’s ratings and reports should understand that neither an enhanced factual investigation nor any third-party verification can
ensure that all of the information Fitch relies on in connection with a rating or a report will be accurate and complete. Ultimately, the issuer and its advisers are responsible for the accuracy of the information
they provide to Fitch and to the market in offering documents and other reports. In issuing its ratings and its reports, Fitch must rely on the work of experts, including independent auditors with respect to
financial statements and attorneys with respect to legal and tax matters. Further, ratings and forecasts of financial and other information are inherently forward-looking and embody assumptions and
predictions about future events that by their nature cannot be verified as facts.
As a result, despite any verification of current facts, ratings and forecasts can be affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating or forecast was issued or affirmed.
The information in this report is provided “as is” without any representation or warranty of any kind, and Fitch does not represent or warrant that the report or any of its contents will meet any of the
requirements of a recipient of the report. A Fitch rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security. This opinion and reports made by Fitch are based on established criteria and methodologies that
Fitch is continuously evaluating and updating. Therefore, ratings and reports are the collective work product of Fitch and no individual, or group of individuals, is solely responsible for a rating or a report. The
rating does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. Fitch is not engaged in the offer or sale of any security. All Fitch reports have shared
authorship. Individuals identified in a Fitch report were involved in, but are not solely responsible for, the opinions stated therein. The individuals are named for contact purposes only. A report providing a
Fitch rating is neither a prospectus nor a substitute for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with the sale of the securities. Ratings may be
changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch. Fitch does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Ratings do not comment on the adequacy of market price, the suitability of any security for a particular investor, or the tax-exempt nature or taxability of payments made in respect to any security. Fitch
receives fees from issuers, insurers, guarantors, other obligors, and underwriters for rating securities. Such fees generally vary from US$1,000 to US$750,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent) per
issue. In certain cases, Fitch will rate all or a number of issues issued by a particular issuer, or insured or guaranteed by a particular insurer or guarantor, for a single annual fee. Such fees are expected to
vary from US$10,000 to US$1,500,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent). The assignment, publication, or dissemination of a rating by Fitch shall not constitute a consent by Fitch to use its name as an
expert in connection with any registration statement filed under the United States securities laws, the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 of the United Kingdom, or the securities laws of any particular
jurisdiction. Due to the relative efficiency of electronic publishing and distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to three days earlier than to print subscribers.
For Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea only: Fitch Australia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services license (AFS license no. 337123) which authorizes it to provide credit ratings to
wholesale clients only. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persons who are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001.
39
