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Rapid Assessment on Climate Change RiskCCAI pilot site: Champhone, Savannakhet, Lao PDR
Southeast Asia START Regional Center
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Session 9: Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
Climate scenarios Land use/cover scenarios
Flood profiles Other hydrological regime
Hydrological ModelPrecipitation/ Tmax/ Tmin/ windspeed
Runoff profiles
Using long term climate projection data in climate change impact assessment:
Case studies on hydrological analysis
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Elevation
River Network
Soil property
Land cover
Templates
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Routing Model
Discharge (mm3/s)
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Daily Discharge
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Base line 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
Millio
n c
ub
ic m
ete
r
Decade
Scenario A2
Scenario B2
Change in annual discharge – Se Bang Hieng
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
Change in weekly discharge – Se Bang Hieng
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
cu
.m/s
week
Scenario A2
BL
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
Change in weekly discharge – Se Bang Hieng
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
cu
.m/s
week
Scenario B2
BL
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
SEA START RC copyright 2010
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
Critical flow – flood risk (based on historical data)
Other examples
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
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Case study in Lower Songkram River basin - Thailand
Study area
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
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Change in flood boundary in lower Songkram River basin
Source: WUP-Fin Group, MRCS Future
Now
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Change in future flood risk in Mekong River delta
Flood boundary may expand in the future.
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
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But duration of flood may be shorter in the future.
Change in future flood risk in Mekong River delta
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
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Serious flood – 50cm (river overflow) may arrive 2 weeks late in future.
Change in future flood risk in Mekong River delta
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Serious flood (50cm) may end 2 weeks late in future
Change in future flood risk in Mekong River delta
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Serious flood (50cm) may start before end-August and affect the Summer-Autumn rice crop
Change in future flood risk in Mekong River delta
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Extended inundated area and affect some shrimp ponds.
Change in future flood risk in Mekong River delta
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
SEA START RC copyright 2010
SEA START RC copyright 2010
Water from river catchments in Savannakhet
Water from upper Mekong river
Climate change and impact on hydrological regime
Flood risk at Champhone, Savannakhet
Thank you
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