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SCI/VERKEHR BERLIN 2010

RAIL TRANSPORT MARKETS – GLOBAL

MARKET TRENDS 2010–2020

IMPORTANCE AND DYNAMISM OF THE WORLDWIDE RAIL TRANSPORT MARKETS AND THEIR DRIVERS

© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Rail Transport Markets – Global Market Trends 2010–2020 3

RAIL TRANSPORT MARKETS: GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS 2010–2020

Importance and dynamics of the worldwide rail transport markets and their drivers

With the Multi Client Study “Rail Transport Markets: Global Market Trends 2010 to 2020”, SCI Verkehr is updating and building upon its successful previous study. This study is a response to the demand from transport companies, the rail industry and public decision-makers for a sound, methodical and systematic assessment of the rail transport markets.

The central drivers for development in the rail transport markets are analysed and their influence on transport performance is assessed. This is the basis to forecast transport performance for the period 2010 to 2020. With its many years of experience in the rail sector, SCI Verkehr is able to offer comprehensive assessments of the railway’s current situations and future prospects in each country.

In concrete terms, the study includes:

• The structure and development of the global rail transport markets divided into the following eight world market regions: North America, South and Central America, Western and Eastern Europe, Asia, Australia, Africa/Middle East and the CIS

• Individual analyses of the 28 most important markets

• Analyses and forecasts of transport performance for the period between 2000 and 2020

• Differentiated statements about urban rail transport, railway passenger transport, and rail freight transport

• Current forecasts and scenarios taking into account the economic and financial crisis

• Study of the importance and dynamics of global market drivers as well as operators and their competitive dynamics

• Comprehensive basic data on socio-economic development as well as transport intensity, average travel / transport distances, modal split and infrastructure

The market study is based on a number of sources of information and discussions with experts which are continuously analysed, validated and entered into the SCI Database.

The German and the English version of the study are available at the price of EUR 2 800 plus VAT and postage. It is also available for download as a pdf-file in the online shop of SCI Verkehr GmbH. Your contact

Christian Beßler Head of Marketing and Sales

Tel. +49 221 93178 20 Fax +49 221 93178 78 E-mail: [email protected]


Table of Content

1 Management Summary Rail Transport Markets: Global Market Trends 2010–2020 ............................................................................................................ 16

1.1 Mainline Railway Passenger Transport ......................................................................18

1.2 Urban Rail Transport ..................................................................................................22

1.3 Rail freight transport ...................................................................................................26

2 Introduction and Methodology of the Study ....................................................... 30

2.1 Objective of the Market Analysis ................................................................................30

2.2 Delimitation of the Market Analysis ............................................................................30

3 Analysis of Transport Demand Drivers ............................................................... 36

3.1 Calculation Model for Transport Demand ..................................................................36

4 Characteristics and Transport Development in the World Rail Transport Markets ................................................................................................................ 44

4.1 Western Europe ..........................................................................................................44

4.2 Eastern Europe .........................................................................................................119

4.3 North America ...........................................................................................................157

4.4 South and Central America ......................................................................................175

4.5 Asia ...........................................................................................................................193

4.6 Australia/Pacific ........................................................................................................218

4.7 CIS ............................................................................................................................233

4.8 Africa/Middle East .....................................................................................................256 Annex

Assessment of the importance and dynamics of the global market drivers

Transport performances at a glance

• Transport Performance and Growth Rates in the World Market Regions

• Transport Performance and Growth Rates in the 28 Core Countries

• Transport intensity of the 28 core countries in 2010

• Travel and transport distances in the 28 core countries in 2010



4.4 South and Central America (excerpt)

Rail freight transport

Transport performance (in billion tkm)

2000 2005 2009 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 00–10

CAGR 10-15

CAGR 10-20

178.3 259.2 283.6 304.0 365.0 419.6 5.5% 3.7% 3.3%

Transport performance development From 2000 to 2008, rail freight transport increased by almost three quarters. In 2009 it suffered a slump of 8%. Rail freight transport is mainly performed in Brazil. In the world market region, Brazil accounts for about 87% of transport performance. Noteworthy transport services still mainly take place in the countries Argentina, Chile and Peru, with their emerging economies and high populations. In South and Central America, transport flows are oriented towards lines along and going to the coast, where mainly raw material is transported for export from the mines inland to the ports. The recent substantial growth in freight transport was predominantly due to the rising demand for raw materials but also increasing container transport. A boom is taking place for example in the industrial sector. A number of large corporate groups have established themselves in certain fields of production in the past years, primarily in Brazil, and are of great importance in world trade.

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Transport performance development in rail freight transport in South and Central America 2000-2020 [Index 2000 = 100]

100 = 178 billion tkm


Competitive dynamics Alongside the (in some cases former) state railways, a number of private freight transport operators have also established themselves in the market. In 2009, the three largest Brazilian operators generated around 75% of rail freight transport performance in the world market region.

Operators specialise in raw material transport, mainly iron ore. The owner structures vary significantly. Estrada de Ferro Carajás (EFC), Estrada de Ferro Vitória a Minas (EFVM) and Ferrovia Centro-Atlântica SA (FCA) belong to the mining group Vale. Majority owner of MRS Logística S.A. (MRS) is steel producer CSN Comp. Sider. Nacional in Volta Redonda. América Latina Logística (ALL) is listed on the stock exchange as the holding company of its subsidiaries ALLMS and ALLMN. Many small operators are also state-owned. The regional orientation of the South American freight railways is closely linked to the raw material deposits. Freight railways therefore often only use the lines from the mines to the ports. Operators mainly focus activities on their respective domestic country. Only América Latina Logística (ALL) operates in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile. In Brazil the company is represented through different subsidiaries. The largest logistics provider in Latin America, ALL, transports goods from the steel, car and electrical industries and also around 78% of the South American grain exports to the most important ports in the whole continent. The South American operators have grown in the past by increasing the traffic frequency on existing lines. This strategy has worked up to now, but in the event of an economic resurgence capacity bottlenecks are likely to appear on existing lines to a greater extent. This became clear through bottlenecks that appeared even before the crisis. Investments in freight transport lines are therefore still necessary. It is debatable whether state funds are sufficient to finance the projects or whether the operators will have to search for external partners. However, no plans have been announced regarding mergers or takeovers.

Figure 1: Market shares in Brazilian rail freight transport

Source: Agência Nacional de Transportes Terrestres (Brasilien); SCI Verkehr

Market shares in rail freight transport in Brazil[2009, total 245 billion tkm]

Fehler! Kein Text mit angegebener Formatvorlage im Dokument.


4.1.9 Switzerland (excerpt)

Profile 2010

Socio-economic data

Population 7.6 million

Population growth up to 2015 0.3% p.a.

Degree of urbanisation 77%

GDP per capita (in PPP) EUR 51 900

GDP (2010 prices) EUR 368 bn

Development GDP (real) up to 2015 1.9% p.a.

Rail infrastructure

Mainline railway network 6 080 km

Degree of railway electrification 100%

Urban transport network 315 km

Transport performance 2009 2010 CAGR 10-15

Mainline railway passenger transport 18.6 billion pkm 19.2 billion pkm 2.1%

Urban rail transport 1.6 billion pkm 1.6 billion pkm 2.1%

Rail freight transport 11.7 billion tkm 12.9 billion tkm 3.0%

Transport characteristics 2010 ∅ Transport distances Transport intensity

Mainline railway passenger transport 50 km per capita

Urban rail transport – per capita

Rail freight transport 180 km 35 tkm per EUR 1 000 GDP

Modal split

Modal Split in passenger transport[2008, total ~ 109 billion pkm]

Modal split in freight transport[2008, total ~ 23 billion tkm]

Road: National and international transport performance of vehicles registered in Switzerland



Mainline railway passenger transport

Last value reported for 2009.

Transport performance (in billion pkm)

2000 2005 2009 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 00–10 CAGR 10-15 CAGR 10-20

12.6 16.1 18.6 19.2 21.2 23.5 4.3% 2.1% 2.1%

Share: regional transport: 33%

Share: long-distance transport (without high-speed transport): 67%

Share: high-speed transport: <0.5%

Development of transport performance Switzerland achieves the highest transport performance figures in the world per capita in rail passenger transport and the highest modal split across Europe. At the same time, transport performance has increased considerably in the last few years and was around 43% higher in 2008 than in 2000. In addition to continued positive development in economic conditions, transport performance will benefit thanks to an infrastructure upgrade. In September 2008, development started with the double-track upgrade of the SBB line St. Gallen/St. Fiden Engwil. The upgrade is part of federal legislation to implement the connection of eastern and western Switzerland to the European high-speed transport network.

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Transport performance development in railway passenger transport in Switzerland2000-2020 [Index 2000 = 100]

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For the further development of railway infrastructure, in December 2008 the federal council presented the “Railway 2030” concept. This includes large projects such as the continuous third track between Lausanne and Geneva, several tunnels and the NEAT access lines in the north and the south. The federal council is aiming to put the concept into effect at the end of 2010. Investments will most likely not be necessary until after 2017. In order to meet future increases in demand, SBB has made large investments in upgrading vehicle capacities in the past. In 2010, SBB placed the largest contract for rolling stock in the company's history and ordered 59 Interregio and Intercity trains from the manufacturer Bombardier. SBB's order covers 436 fully air-conditioned vehicles with more than 36 000 seats. Competitive dynamics Every regular passenger rail transport service order, whether contracted or non-subsidised, requires a concession from the Confederation which at the same time guarantees exclusivity. The federal government and the cantons make all decisions on awarding concessions and transport contracts. A tender can take place but is not obligatory, and tenders have almost never occurred up to now. SCI Verkehr expects that contracts will still be awarded directly in the medium to long term. It can be assumed that competitive tenders will only be carried out if current operators can in no way meet the conditions laid down in agreements. The Swiss state railway (Schweizerische Bundesbahn, SBB) is the largest railway transport company in Switzerland and operates around 85% of all main and secondary lines. In terms of transport performance, it has a market share of 86%. Besides SBB, there are several railway transport companies operating in Switzerland, mainly organised municipally. In recent years, this area has seen a process of restructuring and consolidation. For example, the two most important operators besides SBB, BLS Lötschbergbahn and the regional transport provider Mittelland, merged to become BLS. There was a line exchange between SBB and BLS in 2004 to concentrate the transport networks. In 2006, in the Appenzeller area, the companies Trogenerbahn, Rorschach-Heiden-Bergbahn, Bergbahn Rheineck-Walzenhausen and the former Appenzeller Bahnen all merged to form Appenzeller Bahn AG. There is hardly any competition between Swiss transport companies and, due to the generally closed nature of the market and exclusive contract awards, no increase in the competitiveness in commuter rail transport is expected. Likewise, the SBB long-distance rail transport concession which runs until 2017 rules out any competition.

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RAIL TRANSPORT MARKETS – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS …s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ · RAIL TRANSPORT MARKETS: GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS 2010–2020 . ... Urban rail transport 1.6 billion