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Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on- Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

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Dual-Polarization Radar Radar reflectivity (Z) – backscattered power related to the drop-size distribution Radial velocity (V R ) – component of wind velocity oriented along the radar beam Differential reflectivity (Z DR ) - ratio of backscattered power at orthogonal polarizations – For targets with isotropic scattering properties such as spherical or chaotically tumbling particles, Z DR is 0 dB. High Z DR is mostly associated with large, wet hydrometeors. – Good indicator of median particle shape and can be useful to detect hail, updraft location and melting layer.

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Page 1: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

Radar Requirements

David J. StensrudNOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

Page 2: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings
Page 3: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

Dual-Polarization Radar• Radar reflectivity (Z) – backscattered power related to the drop-

size distribution• Radial velocity (VR) – component of wind velocity oriented along

the radar beam

• Differential reflectivity (ZDR) - ratio of backscattered power at orthogonal polarizations – For targets with isotropic scattering properties such as spherical or

chaotically tumbling particles, ZDR is 0 dB. High ZDR is mostly associated with large, wet hydrometeors.

– Good indicator of median particle shape and can be useful to detect hail, updraft location and melting layer.

Page 4: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

• Specific differential phase (KDP) – range derivative of differential propagation phase.– KDP is a good indicator of the liquid water content within the

radar sampling volume, as it is nearly zero for heavily aggregated snow or dry graupel/hail.

– Strongly related to rain rate, so used for QPE.

• Correlation coefficient (ρHV) - correlation coefficient between the backscattered returns at horizontal and vertical polarizations at zero lag time.– approaches unity in pure rain or pure dry hail at S band, but is

decreased when a mixture of rain and hail is present.– Low values may indicate mixed precipitation types, non-

meteorological scatters or large hail.

Page 5: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

Tornado debris signature from dual-pol NWS radar in Huntsville, Alabama2 March 2012

Dual-Polarization Benefits

Page 6: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

Hail signature (large Z, low ZDR)

ZDR arc (high ZDR

indicating large raindrops)

Conceptual model of dual-pol signatures in thunderstorms being developed.

Page 7: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

Dual-Polarization Benefits

• Tells us something about the characteristics of precipitation as seen by radar

• May be used to classify hydrometeor types• Should help with radar data quality control

• Benefits of direct assimilation of DP variables to Warn-on-Forecast are uncertain

Page 8: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

Functional Radar Requirements 2030

• NOAA/NWS Functional Weather Radar Requirements Integrated Working Team was formed in late 2012

• FAA has December 2014 decision point– Near simultaneous volume scans every 1 or 2 minutes– Sample variances as new radar variables– Staggered pulse repetition times to improve radial

velocities– Improved quality control within signal processor or

radar system

Page 9: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

Value of Phased Array Radar

Observing SystemSimulation Experiments

(Yussouf and Stensrud 2010 MWR)

Page 10: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

After 1 hour of Assimilation

YussoufandStensrud(2010 MWR)

Trut

h

Mod

el

Anal

ysis

Page 11: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

Bene

fits o

f PAR

15 m

inut

es o

f ass

imila

tion

Yussouf and Stensrud (2010)

Trut

h

PAR

Anal

ysis

WSR

88D

Anal

ysis

Page 12: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

Real Data Case: 24 May 2011

• PAR data with 1-min volume scans, 10 tilts• Degrade to 88D using 2/3 tilts per minute, so

full volume scan in 5 minutes• Radar data thinned to 4 km grid

Courtesy of Lou Wicker

Page 13: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

Assimilation Details• 60 members• LETKF + adaptive inflation• Perturbations to u,v profiles• Bubble initialization • 1.5 km horizontal/200 m vertical• NCOMMAS with LFO and turbulent mixing• Assimilate from 2020 to 2100 UTC• Assimilate 0 dBZ away from storms• Reflectivity data only assimilated every 5 minutes for all

experiments

Page 14: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings
Page 15: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings
Page 16: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings
Page 17: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings
Page 18: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings
Page 19: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings
Page 20: Radar Requirements David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory 2013 Warn-on-Forecast Workshop and Technical Guidance Meetings

Main Points

• Radar observations key to Warn-on-Forecast– Unique in-storm observations– Dual-pol should help with quality control, maybe

with direct assimilation or through use of HCA– PAR “snapshots” seem to yield better results

• Radar requirements for 2030 being discussed