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Global estimates of C stock changes in living forest biomass
Comparative analysis IPCC GPG 2003 vs IPCC AFOLU 2006
March 2012
Raul Abad Viñas
JRC – Joint Research Centre
IES - Institute for Environment and Sustainability
Air and Climate Unit
Ispra - Italy
http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Current EDGAR Project team: G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Muntean, A.M.R. Petrescu, R. Abad-Viñas, A. Hajdu, A. Meijide, V.Pagliari, D. Guizzardi, J Wilson, J. Olivier (PBL), J. Peters (PBL)
1. Introduction
2. Brief evolution of the IPCC methodologies
3. Overview of the IPCC GPG 2003 and IPCC AFOLU 2006 methodologies
4. Results
5. Conclusions
2
Summary
Introduction
3
EDGAR
The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research is a database that provides global anthropogenic emissions trends from 1970 onwards of greenhouse gases and air pollutants by country using harmonized
methodologies across countries
The new version v4.3 extends the current emissions database with, among others an additional subsector: LULUCF
Why this study?
The aim of this study is comparing the IPCC 2003 (LULUCF) and the IPCC 2006 (AFOLU) by calculating the Carbon (C) stock changes in living forest biomass and
selecting the most suitable for EDGAR
4
Evolution of Guidelines for National GHG Inventories from 1995 to 2006
1995 Guidelines for national
Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Revised 1996 Guidelines for
Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty
Management in National GHG
Inventories,2000
Good Practice Guidance for Land-
use, Land Use Change and Forestry,2003
IPCC 2006 Guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, 2006
Guidance used for reporting
to UNFCCC
5
Evolution of Guidelines for National GHG Inventories from 1995 to 2006
LUCF AFOLU LULUCF
Revised 1996 Guidelines for
Greenhouse Gas Inventories
IPCC 2006 Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2006
Good Practice Guidance for Land-
use, Land Use Change and Forestry,2003
Land Use Change & Forestry
– Identifies major land use sources
Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry
– Expanded Guidance covering all carbon stocks
Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use
- Now Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) are integrated, but essentially the remains the same approach. – Extended default values & some improved methods - Adopted at Durban meeting, December 2011
The general approach remains the same from 1996 Guidelines throughout GPG LULUCF 2003 and AFOLU 2006
6
Overview of the methodologies
2006 IPCC Guidelines for GHG Inventories
Volume 4: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use.
Chapter 4 : Forest land - 4.2 Forest land Remaining Forest Land
- 4.2.1 Biomass (living)
- Tier 1
2003 Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF
Chapter 3: LUCF Sector Good Practice Guidance.
- 3.2 Forest land
- 3.2.1 Forest Land Remaining Forest Land
- 3.2.1.1 Change in Carbon Stock in Living Biomass
- Tier 1
For EDGAR prevails global coverage, managed and unmanaged areas are considered
For UNFCCC reporting only managed areas are considered
7
Overview of the methodologies
Gain-Loss Method Stock Difference Method
Living Biomass
Disturbances
C u
pta
ke
thro
ug
h G
ro
wth
Harvest
Carbon Stock
Year 1
Carbon Stock Year 2
Require accurate forest inventories
More suitable to higher tiers
Default values Consistent treatment
for all countries Less detailed and accurate
Forest fires Diseases
8
Overview of the methodologies
Data are presented for each country in 4 different subsets for 1990-2000-2005-2010
1. Gains – Biomass growth Gain-Loss Method
2. Harvest - Biomass removals (roundwood + fuelwood) Gain-Loss Method
3. Forest Fires – Biomass burned Gain-Loss Method
4. Net Deforestation – Annual loss of forest area Stock Difference
Method
Branches and leaves 18-21% -----------------------------------------
9
Trunk 40-50% ------------------------------------
Bark 10-15% -----------------------------------------
Roots 25-30% --------------------------------
Overview of the methodologies
1. Gains
10
ANNUAL INCREASE IN BIOMASS CARBON STOCKS
ΔCG =Σi,j(Ai,j x Gtotali,j x CF)
ΔCG = annual increase in biomass carbon stocks due to biomass growth by vegetation type and climatic zone, tonnes C/yr
A = forest area, ha (from GEZ FAO map and GLC 2000 map) Gtotal= average annual biomass growth, tonnes dry matter/ha yr
i = vegetation type j = climate zone CF= carbon fraction of dry matter, tonnes C /tonnes dry matter.
Gtotal = Σ{GW x (1+R)}
GW= average annual above-ground biomass growth by vegetation type and climatic zone, tonnes dry matter /ha yr (table 4.9 IPCC 2006 and table 3A.1.5 IPCC2003) R = ratio of below-ground biomass to above-ground biomass for a specific vegetation type.
Overview of the methodologies
11
1. Gains - Main Changes
AFOLU 2006
ΔCG = Σi,j (Ai,j x Gtotali,j x CF)
Gtotal = Σ{GW x (1+R)}
For Tier 1 approach: no change of below-ground biomass is assumed
R=0
Default value of Carbon = 0.47 tonnes C/tonnes dry matter.
GW is specified per climatic zone and
forest type with many detailed categories
ΔCG = Σi,j (Ai,j x Gtotali,j x CF)
Gtotal = Σ{GW x (1+R)}
LULUCF 2003
R, ratio of below to above-ground biomass, mean value =0.29
Default value of Carbon = 0.50 tonnes C/tonnes dry matter.
GW is specified for less detailed
climatic zones and vegetation types, leading to more assumptions
Overview of the methodologies
2. Harvest
• Loss harvest = annual carbon loss due to wood removals, tonnes C/yr
• Rw = annual roundwood removals, m3 /yr (data from FORESTAT)
• Fw = annual fuelwood removals, m3 /yr (data from FORESTAT)
• BCEFr = biomass conversion and expansion factor for conversion of wood removals volume to total biomass removals (including bark). tonnes dry matter/m3
• R = ratio of below-ground biomass to above-ground biomass for a specific vegetation type.
• CF = carbon fraction of dry matter, tonnes C/tonnes dry matter
12
Loss harvest = (Rw+Fw) x BCEFr x (1+R) x CF
ANNUAL CARBON LOSS IN BIOMASS OF WOOD REMOVALS
Overview of the methodologies
2. Harvest - Main Changes
Loss harvest = (Rw+Fw) x BCEFr x (1+R) x CF
AFOLU 2006
For Tier 1 approach: no change of below-ground biomass is assumed.
R=0
Default value of Carbon = 0.47 tonnes C/tonnes dry matter
To convert FORESTAT RW data without
bark into over bark, use default expansion factor 1.15
BCEFr is specified per climatic zone and forest type with many detailed
categories
LULUCF 2003
Loss harvest = (Rw+Fw) x BEF2 x D x CF
R, ratio of below to above-ground biomass is not considered in Loss
harvest. Inconsistent treatment of R
Default value of Carbon = 0.50 tonnes C/tonnes dry matter
To convert FORESTAT RW data without
bark into over bark, use default expansion factor 1.12
(expert judgment)
Use BEF2 x D is specified for less detailed climatic zones and vegetation
types, leading to more assumptions
Overview of the methodologies
14
3. Forest Fires
Loss forest fires = Biomass burned X CF
ANNUAL CARBON LOSS IN BIOMASS DUE TO FOREST FIRES
Biomass burned = from Global Fires Emission Database (GFED v.3), tonnes dry matter/yr (Van der Werf et al., 2010)
CF = carbon fraction of dry matter, tonnes C/tonnes dry matter
Overview of the methodologies
15
4 . Net Deforestation
Loss Net Deforestation = AGbi,j x Forest area changei,j x CF
ANNUAL CARBON LOSS IN BIOMASS DUE TO DEFORESTATION
AGb = Above–Ground Biomass in forest by vegetation type and climatic zone tonnes dry matter/ha
(Table 4.7 IPCC2006 and table3A 1.2 IPCC2003) Forest area change in ha by vegetation type and climatic zone (from GEZ FAO map and GLC 2000 map). i = vegetation type j = climate domain CF = carbon fraction of dry matter, tonnes C/tonnes dry matter
Overview of the methodologies
16
Gains
Major difference is introduced by
considering R in IPCC 2003
Russia, North America
and South America show the highest gains
(Russia, Brasil, Canada, EEUU, =48% total forest Area)
Results
IPCC IPCC 2003 2006
1990
IPCC IPCC 2003 2006
2000
IPCC IPCC 2003 2006
2005
IPCC IPCC 2003 2006
2010
Gt
C y
r -
1
17
Harvest
IPCC IPCC 2003 2006
1990
IPCC IPCC 2003 2006
2000
IPCC IPCC 2003 2006
2005
IPCC IPCC 2003 2006
2010
Minor differences IPCC 2003/2006
because input harvest data
are the same.
Differences are introduced by BCEFr
vs BEF2 X D
Africa and South Asia show the highest
harvest (Mainly Fuelwood removals, 5 countries =25% of total
wood removal )
Results G
t C
yr -
1
18
Forest Fires
Gt
C y
r -
1
1990 2000 2005 2010
No differences between both
approaches, same input data is used.
The changes along
the years are influenced
by climate, forest practices, etc
Van der Werf et al., 2010. GEFDv3.: http://www.falw.vu/~gwerf/GFED/
Results
19
Net Deforestation
Gt
C y
r -
1
IPCC IPCC 2003 2006
1990
IPCC IPCC 2003 2006
2000
IPCC IPCC 2003 2006
2005
IPCC IPCC 2003 2006
2010
Small differences are introduced by
default values AGb.
South America, Africa and Asia
show the highest losses.
(mainly Brasil ,Indonesia, Sudan, Nigeria)
Lower losses for
South Asia 2005-2010,
partly as a result REDD
mechanisms.
Results
20
Results overview
Gains -1.59
Harvest 0.68
Fires 0.11
Net D. 0.02
IPCC 2006 AFOLU
Balance -0.78 GT C yr-1
Annex I (2005)
Harvest 2.84
Gains -2.24
Fires 0.13
Net D. 1.24
IPCC 2006 AFOLU
Non Annex I (2005)
Conclusions
21
The use of different IPCC guidelines leads to different results.
There is a systematic overestimation of IPCC 2003 calculations in comparison to IPCC 2006.
Mainly due to treatment of the roots. Partly due to differences in default factors (AGb, BEF, D, AGbg).
High uncertainties associated with IPCC 2003 default values.
IPCC 2006 suits best the needs of EDGAR v4.3 and provide a consistent global picture of C stock change.
IPCC 2006 is consistent in not using R in Tier 1 either Gains and Harvest. IPCC 2006 presents the data with more detailed disaggregation, by climatic zone and vegetation type, and as such a more representative global coverage.
Thanks for your attention!