R1

INFORMATION SUPERIORITY WORKSHOP IIFocus on Metrics

Working Group 4Focus on Synchronization

Introductory Material

D. SignoriD. Anhalt

March 28, 29 2000

R2

CHARGE TO THE SYNCHRONIZATION WORKING GROUP

• Explore Synchronization The essential aspects of synchronization Significance in military operations Means of achieving synchronization

• Define a spectrum of concepts to achieve synchronization Reflect IS capabilities and new operational concepts Candidates for experimentation enabled by metrics

• Develop Metrics Quality of synchronization Implications for C2 Process Impact on operational outcome

• Develop output Essential concepts Hierarchy of measures

R3

EXPLORING SYNCHRONIZATION• What is it? Possible Definition:

– An output characteristic of a C2 process

– Facilitates the execution of military operations in a coordinated way

– Provides maximum effect and with minimum expense of resource

• Why its importance in military operations growing

– Key to focusing mass, firepower and effects

– Growing demand for rapid precision application of force

– Pressure to do more with less

• Why is it becoming difficult to improve synchronization in military operations

– Large numbers of physical entities – Trend toward distributed operations

– Many degrees of freedom – Less tolerance to enemy countermeasures

– Increasing speed and precision – Limits to centralized control

• How can information superiority help achieve improved synchronization

– Increased richness of information enables high precision

– Increased reach of information enables more entities to be influenced

– Potential to focus complex behavior through wide spread sharing of awareness/intent

R4

CONCEPTS RELATED TO SYNCHRONIZATION• Delamination of the economy of things and economy of information

– Things hard to get and hard to use

– Information hard to get but easy to use thru networking

– Synchronization involves interface between virtual and real

• Control Systems

– Inertia of physical things provide limits to speed of synchronization

– Plant model in control theory provides description of dynamics

– Feed back control law determine rate of adaptation and convergence

• Complex adaptive systems

– Simple intelligent agents with situation information and rules

– Agents linked together; e.g., using feed back control structure

– Self organizing emergent behavior; e.g., swarming

• Entropy

– Lack of synchronization seen as disorganization

– Measures of disorganization have roots in thermodynamics and information theory

– Probability measures that reflect degree of confidence in state of system

Concepts based in science, mathematics, engineering and the new economyConcepts based in science, mathematics, engineering and the new economy

R5

CENTRALIZATION/DECENTRALIZATION OF AUTHORITY RELEVANT TO A CRISIS

PERROW’S AUTHORITY RULES

1 2

3 4

Linear ComplexInteractions

Tight

Loose

Coupling

CENTRALIZATION for tight coupling.

CENTRALIZATION compatible with linear interactions (expected, visible)

Dams, power grids, some continuous processing, rail and marine transport

CENTRALIZATION to cope with tight coupling (unquestioned obedience, immediate response).

DECENTRALIZATION to cope with unplanned interactions of failures (careful, slow search by those closet to subsystems).

Nuclear plants, weapons; DNA, chemical plants, aircraft, space missions

DECENTRALIZATION for complex interactions desirable.

DECENTRALIZATION for loose coupling desirable (allows people to devise indigenous substitutions

and alternative paths), since system accident possible.

Mining, R&D firms, multi-goal agencies (welfare, DOE, OMB), universities.

CENTRALIZATION or DECENTRALIZATION possible. Few complex interactions; component failure accidents can be handled from above or below. Tastes of elites and tradition determine structure.

Most manufacturing, tradeschools, single-goal agencies (motor vehicles, post office).

R6

A SPECTRUM OF C2 OPTIONS FOR ACHIEVING SYNCHRONIZATION

Linear/Tight Linear/Loose Complex/Loose Complex/Tight

Centralized Either NeitherDecentralized

1 23 4

Equilibrium Mildly Complex Complex Chaos

Nonlinearity Spectrum

Perrow Quadrants (Interactions/Coupling and Centralization/Decentralization

C2 Structural Options

Fully Centralized

Guidance/ Autonomy

Bid-A-TaskSelf Organizing Request/Bids

No Organi-zation

Historical Military Emphasis Emerging E-commerce Emphasis

R7

Some Structural Options for C2

CMD CENTER COMMANDER

BULLETIN BOARD

Fully Centralized Guidance/Autonomy

Bid-A-Task Self Organizing (Requests/Bids)

Mission

Network

Strategy

Task

CMD Center or CMDR

R8

Illustrative Example: Agile Synchronization of Effects

Commanders’ Intent

Situation Awareness

DecisionDegree of

Collaboration

Degree ofSharing

Degree ofIntegration Knowledge

BaseComponent

Action

Action

Action

Sensor

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R9

Illustrative Example: Agile Synchronization Effects

Commander’s Intent

Situation Awareness

DecisionDegree of

Collaboration

Degree ofSharing

Degree of Integration

KnowledgeBase

Component

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• • Extent of AgreementExtent of Agreement

• • Level of InteractionLevel of Interaction

• • Quality of DecisionsQuality of Decisions

• • Fraction of Decisions Fraction of Decisions based on info vs orders based on info vs orders

• • ConsistencyConsistency

• • CommonalityCommonality

• • Degree of Shared UnderstandingDegree of Shared Understanding

• Degree of UnderstandingDegree of Understanding

• • Quality of InformationQuality of Information

• • AccessibilityAccessibility

• • VelocityVelocity

• • UtilityUtility

• • Level of InteroperabilityLevel of Interoperability

• • Network ConnectivityNetwork Connectivity

Action

Action

Action

Sensor

Sensor

Sensor

R10

TOP LEVEL SYNCHRONIZATION MEASURES

Complexity Degree of Nonlinearity

Tightness of Coupling

Quality Correlation/Coherence/Concurrency/ Consistency of

Behavior of Entities

Percent of event sequences that mesh in manner consistent with Commanders Guidance

Effect Timeliness of C2 Cycle – Effectiveness of Force

Resources Expended – Measure of Mission Outcome

R11

SOME ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION

• Focus of Working Group Synchronization vs. Organization

• Priorities Actual metrics vs. other topics

Synchronization metric vs other metrics

• Method Activities done together

Activities partioned

Focus of time and effort?Focus of time and effort?