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QUELSSOUTIENSAUXÉNERGIESRENOUVELABLESÉLECTRIQUES?
Revuefrançaised'économie
2015/4,p.105-140
PhilippeQuirionCNRS,CIRED
Electricityfromrenewables&nuclear,World,1996-2015
Source:BPStaFsFcalReviewofWorldEnergyJune2016
3mainpolicyinstrumentsforrenewablesinelectricity
• Feed-In-Tariffs(FIT)– Electricityboughtataguaranteedpricefor10-20years– Boostedwind&PVinDenmark,Germany,Spain,France…– More&morelimitedtosmall-scalePV
• Feed-In-Premium(FIP)– Per-unitsubsidyaddedtothemarketprice– Germany,FrancemovingtoFIP(wind)
• TradableRenewableQuota(TRQ)– Minimumshareofrenewablesinthepowermix;renewablepowerproducerssell"greencerFficates"
– Aka"TradableGreenCerFficates"(TGC),"RenewablePor]olioStandards"(RPS)
– SomeUSstates,Korea,Sweden…
Outline
1. FITvs.FIPvs.TRQwrt.1. Uncertainty2. ElectricitypricevariaFonthroughFme3. ImperfectcompeFFon4. TransacFoncosts
2. ≠supportlevelsfor≠marketsegments?3. Howtofundthesubsidies?4. AucFonsintheEU
1.1.Uncertainty(1)
1.1.Uncertainty(2)• Schmalensee2012:FITvs.TRQ
– Noexplicitexternalityàsameexp.renewableprod.– Uncertainren.cost– SameExpectedsocialcost– FIT:lowervarianceforren.producers– Varianceinsocialcostdependsonparameters,likelylowerforTRQ
– Decreasingmarginalfossilcost&perfectcompeFFon:?• Narita&Requate2014:FITvs.TRQ
– Externality:CO2emissionsbutinternalisedbyCO2tax– Uncertainfossilcost:TRQ≻FIT…butbecausepricecap!– Uncertainren.cost:dependsonparameters
1.1.Uncertainty(3)
• Cornago&Foucart2014:– TRQvs.absoluteren.quotavs.fossilquota.– Externality:CO2emissions– fossilquota≻ren.quota≻TRQ(shareofren.)
• Marschinski&Quirion2014:– FITvs.FIPvs.TRQ– Externality:inducedtechnicalprogress– Uncertaintyoverfossilcost,ren.costorelec.demand– NumericalapplicaFontotheUS– Generalresult:FIT≻TRQ,FIP≻TRQ
1.1.Uncertainty(4)
• Lecuyer&Quirion2016:– Externality:CO2emissions– InteracFonwithEUETS;ETSemissioncapmaybindornot
– Uncertaintyoverfossilcost,ren.costorelec.demand
– NumericalapplicaFontotheEU– Generalresult:FIT≻FIP≻TRQ
1.1.Uncertainty(5)
• Riskforren.producers– LowerwithFIT:Couture&Gagnon2010,Fagianietal.2013,Kitzing2014,Marschinski&Quirion2014,Schmalensee2012…
– Gavard2016,windinDk:FIP@27€/MWh~FITsupport@21€/MWh
• Lowerriskàinvestmentbysmallerplayers• ButriskforconvenFonalproducershigherwithFIT(Marschinski&Quirion2014)
1.2.ElectricitypricevariaFon(1)
• NegaFveprices:– Fewoccurrences– SocialcostonlyifAbs[price]>fossilexternality– Canbetackledbyanysupportscheme
1.2.ElectricitypricevariaFon(2)• Schmidtetal.2013,Roquesetal.2010,Reichelstein&
Sahoo2015:producFonmaximisaFon≠valuemaximisaFon• ImpliesFIP≻(fixed)FIT
1.3.ImperfectcompeFFon
• Dressler2015;Tamásetal.2010– FIPvs.FIT,Cournotoligopoly– FIPmayincreasemarketpower
• Verbruggen2009(Belgium),Tanaka&Chen2013– TRQ:distorFonsongreencerFficatesmarket– InteracFonbetweenelectricityandgreencerFficatesmarketsàmoredistorFons
– ~Reclaimin2000-1(Kolstad&Wolak2008)
1.4.TransacFoncosts
• Langniss2003,Finon&Perez2007:FIT≻TRQ– GermanFIT:1.3%,TexasTRQ:2.9%– SwedishTRQ:18%(Mundaca2013)
• FIP:transacFoncostsforsellingpower(Gawel&Purkus2013:460million€inGermany).
• Clearranking:FIT≻FIP≻TRQ
2.≠supportlevelsfor≠marketsegments?
• Marketsegment:techno,locaFon,size…• EUguidelines:“technologyneutral”• PracFce:differenFaFon(exchangeratesorseparatetargets
forTRQ)• Dilemma:
– TechneutralàdifferenFalrent– DifferenFaFonàhighersocialcost(Requate2015)
• Empiricalstudies:higherrentforTRQ– Jaraitė&Kažukauskas2013,Kwon2015,Verbruggen2009,Bergek&Jacobsson2010
• Myviewpoint:differenFaFonunavoidablebutshouldbebasedonclearprinciples
3.Howtofundthesubsidies?
• MostcasesinEurope:taxonelectricity– Clearlymorecost-effecFvethanpublicbudget(Goulder2013)
– Lowertaxrateforelectricity-intensiveindustry(compeFFvenessconcerns)
– Moreefficienttoolsexist(e.g.taxonconsumpFonofenergy-intensivegoods)
4.AucFonsintheEU(1)
• Late1990s:firstaucFonsinIreland,France&theUK
• Abandoned:lowrealisaFonrate&hightransacFoncosts(Menanteauetal.2003)
• “Backtothefuture”(delRíoetLinares2014):AucFonsinmostEuropean&manydevelopingcountries
4. Auctions in the EU (2)
1997
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OnshoreWindOffshoreWindPV/CSPAllRES-EtechnologiesPV/CSPAllRES-EtechnologiesOffshoreWindAllRES-EtechnologiesOffshoreWind
IEAllRES-Etechnologies
UKAllRES-Etechnologies
AllRES-EtechnologiesPV/CSPAllRES-EtechnologiesWind
TariffFixed/Premiumsetadministratively LiberalizationoftheelectrcitymarketTariffsetunderauctionmechanism ChangeofthesystemQuota
source:EuropeanCommission,2013;IRENA,2012
IT
PT
FR
NL
DE
DK
v
Ola Hanafi, Master thesis, CIRED, 2016
4.AucFonsintheEU(3)• EU2014guidelines:
– from2017,“aidisgrantedinacompeFFvebiddingprocessonthebasisofclear,transparentandnon-discriminatorycriteria”
– “aidisgrantedasapremiuminaddiFontothemarketprice”– aim:“cost-effecZvedeliverythroughmarket-basedmechanisms”
• Non-discriminatory?FrenchaucFonsforoffshorewind&PVincludeclearprotecFonistrules
• Transparent?Li|leinformaFononprices&realisaFonrate;½ofcriteriaqualitaFve.
• Cost-effecZve?Foroffshore,“compeFFvedialogue”toavoidduplicaFonoffeasibilitystudies.HightransacFoncosts.
• Cost-effecZve?Foroffshore,potenFallydistorFngriskmiFgaFonfeatures.
• Cost-effecZve?Premiumratherthantariff
Conclusion
• Tradablerenewablequotadominatedbytarifforpremiumformanyreasons
• MovefrompremiumtotariffquesFonable• Detailsmayma|ermore(funding,differenFaFon…)
• MovetowardsaucFonsquesFonableforonshorewind&PVinEurope