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Integrating Renewable Energy Into the GB System

Phil Lawton, Future System Operation Manager

6th September 2013

2 2

We join everything up

Generators at one end – consumers at the other

Directly or indirectly connecting to our networks

At the centre of the industry

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National Grid

4

The changing energy landscape

Decarbonise

electricity

80% CO2 reduction by

2050

Sustainability

Affordability

Security of

supply

5

UK Future Energy Scenarios

Scenarios:

• Gone Green

• Slow Progression

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Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture

0

100

200

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700

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TW

h/Y

r

Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports

Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport

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Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture

0

100

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2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports

Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport

Adoption matches

available energy

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Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture

0

100

200

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600

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2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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h/Y

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Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports

Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport

Deployment too fast: High

Carbon Generation required

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Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture

0

100

200

300

400

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2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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h/Y

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Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports

Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport

Deployment too Slow: Low

Carbon Generation unused

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Low Carbon Electricity – The big picture

0

100

200

300

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500

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2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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h/Y

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Nuclear/Renewable/CCS/CHP Coal/Oil/Gas/Imports

Decarbonise electricity Electrify Heat & Transport

How big does the

network need to be?

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Role of the Network

Transmission Operator:

Adequate capacity

System Operator:

Balancing the Network

Overall Balance

Locational Balance

12 12

Gas: The Challenges

2000 20102013 & beyond…

Changing Gas

Flows

13 13

Gas: The Challenges

2000 20102013 & beyond…

Growing interaction:

Electricity to Gas

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Electricity: The Challenges

Increasing variable generation

and need for gas back-up

Increasing interconnection

Increasing distributed generation

– appears as greater demand

fluctuation

New demand patterns e.g. electric

vehicle charging and space

heating – large and volatile

So, need enhanced capabilities

15

An orderly transition to 2020/30:

Reducing uncertainty and increasing flexibility

Rules

Commercial

Tools

New Assets

Information Flows

Work Areas

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60

0 2 4 6 8

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Time

GW

Residual Demand

Uncertain Wind

Reliable Wind

Fixed Generation

Challenge 1: Obtaining additional Reserve

Reserve

Required

Where do we get the reserve to cover the uncertainty?

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0

10

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30

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0 3 6 9

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Time

GW

"Surplus" Wind

Residual Demand

Wind

Fixed Generation

Challenge 2: Starting to decarbonise heat/transport

Available Low

Carbon Energy

Need active demand to “harvest” available energy

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Challenge 3: Delivering Peak Heat

Gas and Electricity Load Duration Curves: 2012

0

50

100

150

200

1 101 201 301

Day

Avera

ge L

oad

GW

Electricity Gas Electricity Peak Load

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Challenge 3: Delivering Peak Heat

Gas and Electricity Load Duration Curves: 2012

0

50

100

150

200

1 101 201 301

Day

Avera

ge L

oad

GW

Electricity Gas Electricity Peak Load

Attempting to supply all heat from

electricity will:

• Require huge investment in

generation, networks and heat pumps

•Much of which will operate with a very

low load factor

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Challenge 3: Delivering Peak Heat

Gas and Electricity Load Duration Curves: 2012

0

50

100

150

200

1 101 201 301

Day

Avera

ge L

oad

GW

Electricity Gas Electricity Peak Load

Meet lower demands

using low carbon

electricity & heat pumps

Meet peak demands by gas

using existing network

21

Current work areas include:

Future Energy Scenarios to inform debate

System modelling to test proposals

Improved forecasting of renewable output

Releasing the flexibility that interconnectors can provide

Relaxing “Rate of Change of Frequency” settings to allow greater levels of wind/solar PV/imports on the system

Demand Side Response

Leading DECC Sub-Group on UK Solar PV Strategy

Involved in drafting of European Codes

Engaging with DNOs on voltage control

Future interaction between gas and electricity systems

22

Current work areas include:

Future Energy Scenarios to inform debate

System modelling to test proposals

Improved forecasting of renewable output

Releasing the flexibility that interconnectors can provide

Relaxing “Rate of Change of Frequency” settings to allow greater levels of wind/solar PV/imports on the system

Demand Side Response

Leading DECC Sub-Group on UK Solar PV Strategy

Involved in drafting of European Codes

Engaging with DNOs on voltage control

Future interaction between gas and electricity systems

1. Mean 24 Hour Ahead Forecast Performance Over The Last 6 Months

Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Last Week

Total Capacity 5,560 5,723 5,902 5,934 6,090 6,090 6,090

Mean Absolute Error 333 357 384 314 229 307 369

as % of Capacity 5.99% 6.23% 6.50% 5.30% 3.75% 5.05% 6.06%

Mean Error 246 211 286 279 127 183 215

as % of Capacity 4.43% 3.69% 4.85% 4.71% 2.08% 3.00% 3.52%

Maximum Error 1,295 1,222 1,508 2,069 1,075 1,562 845

as % of Capacity 23.30% 21.35% 25.56% 34.87% 17.66% 25.65% 13.87%

RMS Error 404 432 493 431 292 398 432

as % of Capacity 7.27% 7.55% 8.35% 7.26% 4.79% 6.53% 7.09%

2. Last Week's 24 Hour Ahead Wind Power Forecast Against Actual

3. The Last 6 Months Mean Absolute Error Plotted Against Forecast Hours Ahead

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1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

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-AP

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MW

20% Confidence Interval 40% Confidence Interval 60% Confidence Interval

80% Confidence Interval Mean Forecast Total Metered

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240Hours Ahead

Mean A

bsolu

te E

rror

as %

of

Capacity

Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13

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Future Energy Scenarios to inform debate

System modelling to test proposals

Improved forecasting of renewable output

Releasing the flexibility that interconnectors can provide

Relaxing “Rate of Change of Frequency” settings to allow greater levels of wind/solar PV/imports on the system

Demand Side Response

Leading DECC Sub-Group on UK Solar PV Strategy

Involved in drafting of European Codes

Engaging with DNOs on voltage control

Future interaction between gas and electricity systems

Current work areas include:

24

We are committed to working with

other stakeholders to deliver solutions

Ofgem DECC

ENTSO GB TOs

Gen Cos

Manufacturers

Suppliers

Distributors

Customer

Questions and Discussion