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Q4 earnings presentation February 2019

Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

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Page 1: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Q4 earnings presentation

February 2019

Page 2: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

From time to time Home Capital Group Inc. (the Company) makes written and verbal forward-looking statements. These are included inthe Annual Report, periodic reports to shareholders, regulatory filings, press releases, Company presentations and other Companycommunications. Forward-looking statements are made in connection with business objectives and targets, Company strategies,operations, anticipated financial results and the outlook for the Company, its industry, and the Canadian economy. These statementsregarding expected future performance are “financial outlooks” within the meaning of National Instrument 51-102. Please see the riskfactors, which are set forth in detail in the Risk Management section of the 2018 Fourth Quarter Report, as well as the Company’s otherpublicly filed information, which is available on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval (SEDAR) at www.sedar.com,for the material factors that could cause the Company’s actual results to differ materially from these statements. These risk factors arematerial risk factors a reader should consider, and include credit risk, liquidity and funding risk, structural interest rate risk, operationalrisk, investment risk, strategic risk, reputational risk, compliance risk and capital adequacy risk along with additional risk factors thatmay affect future results. Forward-looking statements can be found in the Report to the Shareholders and the Outlook section in the2018 Annual Report. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “will,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,”“intend,” “should,” “estimate,” “plan,” “forecast,” “may,” and “could” or other similar expressions.

By their very nature, these statements require the Company to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainty,general and specific, which may cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations expressed in the forward-lookingstatements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, global capital market activity, changes in government monetaryand economic policies, changes in interest rates, inflation levels and general economic conditions, legislative and regulatorydevelopments, competition and technological change. The preceding list is not exhaustive of possible factors.

These and other factors should be considered carefully and readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-lookingstatements. The Company presents forward-looking statements to assist shareholders in understanding the Company’s assumptions andexpectations about the future that are relevant in management’s setting of performance goals, strategic priorities and outlook. TheCompany presents its outlook to assist shareholders in understanding management’s expectations on how the future will impact thefinancial performance of the Company. These forward-looking statements may not be appropriate for other purposes. The Companydoes not undertake to update any forward-looking statements, whether written or verbal, that may be made from time to time by it oron its behalf, except as required by securities laws.

Forward-Looking Statements

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Page 3: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

➢ Completed SIB; received approval for NCIB

➢ Q4 growth in earnings per share, book value per share, return on equity

➢ Fifth consecutive quarter of origination growth

➢ Growth in residential and commercial loan book

➢ Oaken channel over 20% of deposit funding

➢ Announcing launch of IT Roadmap

CEO Q4 Update: A year of shareholder value creation

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Page 4: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Fourth Quarter 2018

Financial Results

4

Page 5: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Q4 2018 Financial Highlights

Income StatementQ4 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2017 Sequential

ChangeYear over year

Change

Revenue (millions) $108.4 $105.1 $109.5 3.14% (1.00)%

Net Interest Margin (TEB) (NIM) 1.99% 2.03% 2.02% (4 bps) (3 bps)

Efficiency Ratio (TEB) 51.3% 52.9% 59.8% (160 bps) (850 bps)

Provision as a % of Gross Uninsured Loans (annualized)1 0.12% 0.13% 0.12% (1 bps) Flat

Net Income (millions) $35.8 $32.6 $30.6 9.82% 16.99%

Net income per share $0.46 $0.41 $0.38 12.20% 21.05%

Return on Shareholders’ Equity (annualized) 8.1% 6.9% 6.8% 120 bps 130 bps

Balance Sheet Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2017 Sequential

ChangeYear to date

Change

Total Originations (millions) $1,614.2 $1,435.8 $872.1 12.43% 85.09%

Total Loans (billions) $16.39 $16.04 $15.07 2.18% 8.76%

Loans Under Administration (billions) $22.93 $22.82 $22.52 0.48% 1.82%

Assets Under Administration (billions) $24.68 $24.66 $25.04 0.08% (1.44)%

Net Non-Performing Loans Ratio1 0.47% 0.34% 0.30% 13 bps 17 bps

CET1 Ratio 18.94% 23.27% 23.17% (433 bps) (423 bps)

Book Value per share $26.43 $23.82 $22.60 10.96% 16.95%

1 The amounts pertaining to 2018 have been prepared in accordance with IFRS 9 Financial Instruments (IFRS 9); prior period amounts have not been restated have been prepared in accordance with IAS 39 Financial Instruments: RecognitionAnd Measurement (IAS 39). 5

Page 6: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

2018 Financial Highlights

Income Statement 2018 2017 Year over year change

Revenue (millions) $418.9 $291.3 43.80%

Net Interest Margin (TEB) (NIM) 1.99% 1.55% 44 bps

Efficiency Ratio (TEB) 52.0% 94.0% (4200 bps)

Provision as a % of Gross Uninsured Loans1 0.16% 0.07% 9 bps

Net Income (millions) $132.6 $7.5 1,668%

Net income per share $1.66 $0.10 1,560%

Return on Shareholders’ Equity 7.7% 0.4% 730 bps

1 The amounts pertaining to 2018 have been prepared in accordance with IFRS 9; prior period amounts have been prepared in

accordance with IAS 39. Prior period amounts have not been restated

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Page 7: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

$30.6

$35.8

Q4 2017 Q4 2018

+17%

$7.5

$132.6

2017 2018

+1,668%

Year-over-year growth in net income

For the quarter(millions)

For the full year(millions)

$0.38 per

share

$1.66 per

share

$0.10 per

share

$0.46 per

share

7

Page 8: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Q4 2018 Originations – sequential change

Commercial originations: $454.1 million

Single-family residential originations: $1,160.1 million

Fifth quarter of sequential increases in volume

Total originations: $1,614.2 million

14.2%

8.2%

12.4%

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Page 9: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

2018 Originations – growth versus 2017

Commercial originations: $ 1,444.3 million

Single-family residential originations: $3,995.1 million

Total originations: $5,439.4 million

19.5%

4.8%

15.2%

Traditional mortgage product is driving loan growth

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Page 10: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Continued growth in mortgage volumes

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Traditional Single-family ResidentialMortgages

Accelerator Single-family ResidentialMortgages

Residential Commercial Mortgages Non-Residential CommercialMortgages

Mill

ion

s

Mortgage Originations by Type

Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

(millions) Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q/Q Change Q4 2017 Year/Year Change

Traditional Single-family Residential Mortgages $ 1,112.1 $ 959.1 15.95% $ 537.4 106.94%

Accelerator Single-family Residential Mortgages $ 48.0 $ 56.9 (15.64)% $ 28.6 67.83%

Total Residential Mortgages $ 1,160.1 $ 1,016.0 14.18% $ 566.0 104.96%

Residential Commercial Mortgages $ 237.6 $ 207.6 14.45% $ 194.8 21.97%

Non-Residential Commercial Mortgages $ 216.5 $ 212.2 2.03% $ 111.2 94.69%

Total Commercial Mortgages $ 454.1 $ 419.8 8.17% $ 306.0 48.40%

Total Mortgage Advances $ 1,614.2 $ 1,435.8 12.43% $ 872.0 85.09%

Traditional single-family category shows strongest growth

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Page 11: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Q4 saw increased activity in the GIC market

1.85%

2.02% 2.02%

1.91%

2.03%

1.99%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%

2.00%

2.20%

Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

Net interest margin (TEB)1

Net interest margin shows impact of SIB funding

• Funds for operations

• Payment of $300 million SIB

• Repayment of $300 million deposit note

1 Net interest margin is a measure of profitability of assets. Net interest margin (TEB) is calculated by taking net interest income, on a taxable equivalent basis, divided by the average total assets.

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Page 12: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Net interest margin reduction from Q3

• Higher cost of funding

• Higher mix of low-yielding assets

• Higher yields on assets

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Page 13: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Conservative underwriting in line with risk appetite

LTV Ratio (Q1 2016 – Present)

69.9%

59.0%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2016 2017 2018

Weighted-average LTV on new Uninsured ResidentialMortgage Originations in the periodWeighted-average LTV on all Uninsured ResidentialMortgages

Loan-to-value on new originations is stable within a conservative range

Loan-to-value on overall portfolio has stabilized close to 60%

1

2

1 Weighted-average LTV is calculated by dividing the sum of the products of LTVs and loan balances by the sum of the loan balances. LTVs are calculated using appraised property values at the time of origination.

2 Weighted-average LTV is calculated by dividing the sum of the products of LTVs and loan balances by the sum of the loan balances.

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Page 14: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

▪ Overall portfolio quality remains well within internal risk tolerance

High credit quality of loan portfolio

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

0.45%

0.50%

Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018

Net Non-Performing Loans as a Percentage ofGross Loans

Reported under IFRS9

1,2

14

1The amounts pertaining to 2018 have been prepared in accordance with IFRS 9; prior period results have been prepared in accordance with IAS 39 and have not been restated.

2 Net non-performing loans as a percentage of gross loans (NPL ratio) is calculated as the total net non-performing loans divided by the gross on-balance sheet loans, which includes all on-balance sheet loans except for loans held for sale.

Page 15: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Credit loss experience demonstrates successful risk management

Reported under IFRS9

• Provisions for full year 2018 were 0.13% of gross loans (2017 – 0.05%)

• Net write-offs for full year 2018 were 0.06% of gross loans (2017 – 0.06%)

• Results in 2018 reported under IFRS9 which may limit comparability to prior periods

Low level of provisions is supported by the low loss experience

0.13%

0.05%

-0.11%

0.09%

0.16% 0.17%

0.10%

0.10%0.03%0.05%

0.03%

0.11%

0.03%0.05%

0.02%

0.13%

-0.15%

-0.10%

-0.05%

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

Provisions (annualized) as a % of gross loans Net write-offs (annualized) as % of gross loans1

1 The amounts pertaining to 2018 have been prepared in accordance with IFRS 9; prior period amounts have not been restated and have been prepared in accordance with IAS 39.

1

15

Page 16: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Oaken share of deposit funding

$13.6

$10.7 $10.6 $9.5 $9.5 $9.7 $9.4 $10.2

$1.8

$1.8 $2.2

$2.0 $2.2 $2.4 $2.6 $2.7

$15.4

$12.5 $12.8

$11.5 $11.7 $12.1 $12.0

$12.9

$-

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

$16.0

$18.0

Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

Broker and Oaken Deposits in $Billions

Broker Oaken Total

• Oaken deposits have grown by over 30% during the year

• Growing Oaken deposits is a key strategic focus

• Digital initiatives will create efficiencies and improve client experience

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Page 17: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Aggregate available liquidity of $1.79 billion at end of Q4 2018 including $500 million undrawn credit facility.

Liquidity risk management – high quality liquid assets

$1,454

$1,817

$1,376 $1,288

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

Mill

ion

s

Liquidity Resources

Liquid assets at carrying value As % of Total assets

✓ Management of liquidity is a key element in sustainable risk culture

✓ Reduced reliance on demand deposits in favour of fixed-term GICs

✓ Maintaining appropriate liquidity to support our future growth plans

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Page 18: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Optimizing our capital level – Substantial Issuer Bid (SIB) results

➢ SIB completed on December 18, 2018

➢ 18,181,818 shares purchased at $16.50 per share

➢ Purchase price represents significant discount to book value per share

➢ 22.7% of shares outstanding

➢ Take-up rate of approximately 83% of tendered shares

➢ Shares outstanding at December 31, 2018: 62,064,531

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Page 19: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Optimizing our capital level – 2019 capital plan

➢ Began share repurchases under NCIB in January 2019

➢ Authorized purchases up to approximately 4.753 million shares

➢ Purchases done by third party within specified price and volume parameters

➢ 735,050 shares purchased to date in 2019 at average price of approximately $16.33 per share

➢ Continue to review other options for return of capital

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Page 20: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Capital and Leverage metrics1

Basel III Common Equity Tier 1▪ Capital levels remain

well above regulatory minimum level

▪ CET1 level above industry after NCIB purchases

▪ Leverage post-SIB is still conservative and within internal risk limits

Leverage Ratio

23.17% 23.64% 23.21% 23.27%

18.94%

Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

7.89%8.70% 9.02% 8.96% 9.20%

7.54%

Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

1 Ratios are based only on Home Trust Company consolidated financial position. 20

Page 21: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Announcing the launch of IT Roadmap

➢ Multi-year upgrade of core banking systems

➢ Implementation of new digital tools

➢ Improved customer experience, faster new product introduction

➢ Employees gain improved productivity, more support for their work across all functional areas

2019 impact on financial results • modestly higher systems spend in 2019 – 2021• 70-75% of spending will be capitalized• accelerated amortization of legacy systems will be highlighted as item of

note• benefits in the form of reduced operating expense, avoided capex and

opportunity for revenue synergies

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Page 22: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Appendix

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Page 23: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

Total on-balance sheet mortgage portfolio balance of $15.54B, of which 90.7% is residential mortgages

▪ 21.7% of residential mortgage portfolio is insured

▪ Weighted average current loan-to-value (LTV) of the uninsured residential mortgage portfolio is 59.0% compared with 59.3% at the end of Q3.

Mortgage Lending Q4 2018 Highlights

Single-Family Residential Loans by Province Insured Uninsured Equity Line Visa Total %

British Columbia $247.0M $804.8M $6.5M $1,058.4M 7.6%

Alberta $528.2M $259.8M $8.9M $796.9M 5.7%

Ontario $1,794.9M $8,964.8M $336.1M $11,095.7M 79.8%

Quebec $127.3M $260.0M $0.9M $388.3M 2.8%

Other $358.8M $213.0M $2.5M $574.2M 4.1%

Total $3,056.2M $10,502.4M $354.8M $13,913.4M 100.0%

Totals may not add due to rounding

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Page 24: Q4 earnings presentation · 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% 0.35% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Net Non-Performing Loans as …

▪ Asset/Liability model based on long funding principle

▪ Near term non-securitized mortgage book run off exceeds repayment schedule of contractual GIC maturities

▪ Securitization funding provides the Company with low cost long-term matched funding

▪ $437.0 million of demand deposits at December 31, 2018

Long Funded Balance Sheet

Maturity Profile as at December 31, 2018 ($ billions)

2.7

6.8

3.3

0.6

13.4

1.5

4.4 4.7

2.0

12.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0-3 months 3-12 months 1-3 years Over 3 Years Total

Non-Securitized Contractual Mortgage Maturities

Contractual Fixed Term Deposit Maturities

24