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Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation November 1, 2018

Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

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Page 1: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

Q3 2018Earnings PresentationNovember 1, 2018

Page 2: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information

2

Notices

• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.

• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

• Such statements and estimates are based on assumptions as to the future and on management’s current expectations and are, naturally, subject to risks and uncertainties.

• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.

• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.

Page 3: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights

3

Highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year

• Adjusted earnings of $1.41 per diluted share

• European EBITDA increased 64% year-over-year to $23 million

• Declared dividend of C $0.60 per share for shareholders of record on

December 1, 2018

• Renewed Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB), allowing repurchase of up to

approximately 5.2 million shares before November 4, 2019

Page 4: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

0.78

0.931.01

1.111.17 1.20

1.28

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F

US Housing Starts

4

Business Drivers

Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted

YTD 2018 US housing starts up 6% vs. 2017, with single-family starts also increasing by 6%.

(in millions)

(1) Based on US housing economists’ forecasts.

(1)

Page 5: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

409

379370

426

363354 355

331

419

305

388

328

359

403

281

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

North Central

South East

Western Canada

North American Benchmark OSB Prices

5

Business Drivers

Spread SE vs NC 55 24 39 7 58

Spread WC vs NC 21 51 11 23 82

Source: Random Lengths

US$

/Msf

-7/1

6”

Page 6: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

European Indicative OSB Price(1)

6

Business Drivers

€/m

3

(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest continental market.

233

262

274

298

305

200

225

250

275

300

325

Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

Page 7: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

Financial Summary

7

Financials

(1) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate.

(US $ millions, except per share information)

Q3 Q2 Q3 9 mos 9 mos

2018 2018 2017 2018 2017Sales $ 640 $ 707 $ 578 $ 1,923 $ 1,581

Adjusted EBITDANorth America 190 256 184 602 443Europe 23 21 14 62 29Unallocated (2) (4) 2 (10) (4)

Total 211 273 200 654 468

Earnings $ 130 $ 174 $ 130 $ 399 $ 276

Adjusted for:Loss on disposal of assets - - 2 - 9

Stock-based compensation and related costs 2 1 1 4 3Costs related to Inverness expansion project - - 1 - 1Reported income tax expense 37 53 32 126 75

Adjusted pre-tax earnings 169 228 166 529 364Income tax expense at statutory rate(1) (46) (61) (45) (143) (98)

Adjusted earnings 123 167 121 386 266

Adjusted EPS, basic 1.42 1.93 1.40 4.46 3.09

Adjusted EPS, diluted 1.41 1.92 1.39 4.43 3.07

Page 8: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

Adjusted EBITDA Variance

8

Financials

(US $ millions)

Q3 2018 Q3 2018 9 mos 2018vs. vs. vs.

Q2 2018 Q3 2017 9 mos 2017

Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 211 $ 211 $ 654

Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 273 200 468

Variance (62) 11 186

Mill nets(1) (70) 18 212

Volume(2) 1 20 51

Key input prices(3) - (13) (33)

Key input usage(3) 5 - (3)

Mill profit share and bonus 3 - (8)

Other operating costs and foreign exchange(4) (1) (14) (33)

Total $ (62) $ 11 $ 186

(1) The mill nets variance represents the estimated impact of changes in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of outbound freight costs)divided by shipment volumes.

(2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products.(3) The key inputs include fibre, resin, wax and energy.(4) The other operating costs and foreign exchange category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, maintenance, and costs to ramp up the new Inverness,

Scotland line.

Page 9: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

Liquidity and Capital Resources

9

Financials

(US $ millions, except per share information)

Q32018

Q22018

Q32017

9 mos 2018

9 mos 2017

Cash provided by operating activities before cash taxes and OWC changes $ 209 $ 259 $ 200 $ 635 $ 440

Cash taxes, net (10) (28) - (108) (2)

Operating working capital changes 29 19 3 (45) (52)

Cash provided by operating activities 228 250 203 482 386

Cash provided by operating activities per share 2.63 2.89 2.36 5.57 4.48

Operating working capital 173 212 156

Regular capital expenditures, including investment in intangible assets 40 50 35 136 98

Investment in Inverness project 1 4 38 9 93

Page 10: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

Balance Sheet

10

Financials

(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted) Bank Covenant

Sep 29,

2018

Dec 31,

2017

Long-term debt, principal value $ 555 $ 555

Less: Cash and cash equivalents (193) (241)

Net debt 362 314

Add: Letters of credit and guarantees 15 19

Net debt for financial covenant purposes 377 333

Tangible net worth Min. $500 1,278 1,248

Net debt to capitalization, book basis Max. 65% 23% 21%

Liquidity of $548 million = $193 million in cash + $230 million in revolving bank lines+ $125 million undrawn A/R securitization

Page 11: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

Appendices

Page 12: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

An

nu

al A

vera

ge N

C P

rice

US$

per

Msf

7/1

6"

Historical North American OSB Prices

12

Appendices

North Central Benchmark OSB Price

Source: Random Lengths

15-year average

Q1 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 226 293 370

Q2 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 264 330 426

Q3 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204 301 409 363

Q4 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 242 285 379

Average 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218 209 269 353

Page 13: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at October 30, 2018. It is not exhaustive.

Forecast North American OSB Prices

13

Appendices

Annual Average North Central

Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”

Analyst 2018F 2019F

RBC Capital Markets 375 350

Raymond James 365 330

Scotiabank 365 331

BMO Capital Markets 364 300

CIBC World Markets 363 305

Seaport Global 360 298

TD Securities 360 315

Vertical Research Partners 360 325

Bank of America Merrill Lynch 354 274

Average 363 314

Page 14: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

North American Capacity Restarts Needed to Meet Growing Demand

14

Industry Overview

37 Mills in Operation

4 Mills Restarted/Available for Restart as of 2017

North American OSB Installed Capacity:

Norbord Mill

7 Mills (Re)started in 2012/13

Note: Excludes OSB siding production and capacity.

Source: APA, company documents and other public filings

(in Bsf-3/8”)

2012 2017

Production 16.2 22.1

Restarts/Idled 4.4 2.0

New 1.2

=27% =14%

Norbord’s Huguley, AL mill resumed

production in October 2017

2 Greenfield Mills in Development

Page 15: Q3 2018 Earnings Presentation - Norbord · Q3 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $211 million, a 6% increase year-over-year •Adjusted earnings

Financial Sensitivities

15

Appendices

Exposure Change

Adjusted EBITDA Impact (1)

(US$ millions)

North American OSB (2) $10 per Msf-7/16” + $59

European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $12

Canadian dollar (3) $0.01 per C$ + $5

Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1

(1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels (including the curtailed Chambord, Quebec mill). Impact on Adjusted EBITDA of a $10 per Msf-7/16” change is ± $53 million based on the last twelve months of production at September 29, 2018.Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges.Approximate operating loss carry-forwards for tax purposes (gross) as at December 31, 2017 – US $149 million, Canada C$22 million, Belgium €32 million and UK £1 million.

(2) Estimated impact of change in Norbord’s realized North American OSB price.

(3) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares).