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Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019

Q3 Earnings Presentation - West Fraser€¦ · Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019. 2 General: ... Consolidated Financial Results $ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19 Lumber $

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Page 1: Q3 Earnings Presentation - West Fraser€¦ · Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019. 2 General: ... Consolidated Financial Results $ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19 Lumber $

Q3 Earnings

Presentation

October 2019

Page 2: Q3 Earnings Presentation - West Fraser€¦ · Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019. 2 General: ... Consolidated Financial Results $ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19 Lumber $

22

General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains

historical information, descriptions of current circumstances and

statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial

results. Readers are cautioned that this presentation is qualified in its

entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the

information contained in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s)

management’s discussion and analysis for the annual and interim periods

ended December 31, 2018 and September 30, 2019 respectively,

(MD&A), and the company’s annual audited and interim financial

statements available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com). A person is not

entitled to rely on parts of the information contained in this presentation to

the exclusion of others.

Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward-

looking statements” (including those under the headings Supply

Conditions and Summary) within the meaning of applicable securities

laws. Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable

guidance to the reader but their accuracy depends on a number of

assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some

cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of

forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or

“does not expect”, “an opportunity exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”,

“strategy”, “intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases

or state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”,

“might”, “will”, “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any

statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other

characterizations of future events or circumstances contain forward-

looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information

are not historical facts but instead represent management’s

expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or

circumstances. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve

numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general

and specific, which contribute to the possibility that the predictions,

forecasts and other forward-looking statements will not occur. Actual

outcomes and results of these statements will depend on a number of

factors including those matters described under “Risks and

Uncertainties”, in our MD&A and may differ materially from those

anticipated or projected. Reference should be made to the other factors

discussed in public filings with securities regulatory authorities.

.

Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward-

looking- statements and WFT undertakes no obligation to publicly

update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether written or

oral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required

by applicable securities laws.

Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain

non-IFRS measures, such as EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and net debt

to capital ratio. Non-IFRS measures do not have a standardized

meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be

comparable to similar measures presented by others. For further

information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the

“Non-IFRS Measures” section in the MD&A External Information:

Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any

external source, it should not be interpreted that WFT has adopted or

endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the

information presented herein is based on or derived from statements by

third parties and has not been independently verified by or on behalf by

WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as

to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy,

completeness or correctness of this information or any other information

or opinions contained herein.

Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars,

unless otherwise indicated.

Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm”

mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and “SYP” means

southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this

presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry Terms found in our

most recent Annual Report.

Page 3: Q3 Earnings Presentation - West Fraser€¦ · Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019. 2 General: ... Consolidated Financial Results $ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19 Lumber $

33

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

$250

$260

$270

$280

$290

$300

$310

$320

$330

Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319

Expenditures % change

Demand conditions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

J F M A M J J A S O N D

M S

tart

s

U.S. Housing Starts (not seasonally adjusted)

2017 2018 2019

Seasonally adjusted:

2017: 1,203

2018: 1,250

2019: 1,250 ytd September

Leading indicator of Remodeling Activity

$B

4 Q

trM

ovin

g I

mpro

vem

ents

and R

epairs

4 Q

trM

ovin

g r

ate

of

Change

Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

J F M A M J J A S O N D

MM

fbm

North America Offshore Exports

2017 2018 2019

2017: 5,462

2018: 5,199

2019: 2,773 ytd July

Source: Statistics Canada, US Census

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

MM

to

nn

es

World Chemical Pulp Shipments

2017 2018 2019

2017: 61.7

2018: 61.1

2019: 40.9 ytd August

Source: PPPC

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44

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2018Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3

North America Curtailments

Supply conditions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

BC Canada US Total NA

Lumber Supply

Ytd 07-18 Ytd 07-19

Down 18%

Down 11%

Flat

Down 5%

Source: Western Wood Products Association, management estimates Source: Industry analysts, public filings, management estimates, FEA

Billion fbm MMfbm

Mix of

temporary

and

permanent

Curtailments potentially have a larger impact on supply going forward

Source: Statistics Canada, US Census

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19

MM

fbm

North America Offshore Imports

2017: 1,4112018: 1,5752019: 866 ytd July

Page 5: Q3 Earnings Presentation - West Fraser€¦ · Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019. 2 General: ... Consolidated Financial Results $ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19 Lumber $

55

* Adjusted EBITDA is defined as operating earnings plus amortization, equity based compensation, restructuring and impairment charges and export duties.

Consolidated Financial Results

$ Millions

Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19

Lumber $ 39 $ 39

Panels 13 10

Pulp & Paper 3 7

Corporate/Other - -

Total $ 55 $ 56

EBITDA margin 4.6% 4.2%

Q3-19 Q2-19

Sales $ 1,190 $ 1,317

Cost and Expenses 1,245 1,375

Restructure/Impairment (1) 26

Operating earnings (54) (84)

Finance Expense (12) (13)

Other 2 (6)

Earnings before Tax $ (64) $ (103)

Tax recovery 19 45

Net earnings $ (45) $ (58)

Diluted EPS $ (0.73) $ (0.92)

Challenging conditions continue

Page 6: Q3 Earnings Presentation - West Fraser€¦ · Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019. 2 General: ... Consolidated Financial Results $ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19 Lumber $

66Q3 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation

Page 7: Q3 Earnings Presentation - West Fraser€¦ · Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019. 2 General: ... Consolidated Financial Results $ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19 Lumber $

77Q3 Lumber Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation

Page 8: Q3 Earnings Presentation - West Fraser€¦ · Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019. 2 General: ... Consolidated Financial Results $ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19 Lumber $

88Q3-19 versus Q2-19

$ millions unless

otherwise indicatedQ3

2019

Q2

2019Change

Lumber Production (MMfbm) 1,493 1,536 (43)

(3%)Chasm Closure, 100 Mile House shift reduction, BC variable

operating schedules, offset by US productivity improvements

Lumber Shipments (MMfbm) 1,541 1,686 (145)

(9%)Shift reductions, Chasm closure, AB downtime

Pulp and Paper Shipments

(Mtonnes)

323 305 19

6%Higher NBSK production rates, recovery from maintenance

shut downs

Adjusted EBITDA $55 $56 $(1) Adjusted EBITDA lower in pulp due to lower pricing offset by

increase in panels, lumber flat

Cash flow from operations $116 $187 $(71) Better cash flow before working capital in Q3, smaller working

capital drawdown in Q3

Capital Expenditure $133 $82 $51 Continuing to execute on capital plans and US

South modernization program

Net Debt

Net Debt to Capital

$983

28%

$942

26%

$41Net debt up slightly from prior quarter, significant financial

flexibility and wide margin of safety

Cumulative duties on deposit

US$

$344 $312 $32 Significant duties on deposit

Share buybacks - $31 $(31) Evaluating market conditions

Despite difficult 2019 so far, maintaining focus on priorities

Page 9: Q3 Earnings Presentation - West Fraser€¦ · Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019. 2 General: ... Consolidated Financial Results $ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19 Lumber $

99

-$100

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

2017 2018 Q1-17 Q1-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19

Available liquidity

Bank lines Cash

Liquidity

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Term loan Notes Revolver

Scheduled maturities

Ample financial flexibility

Cash consists of cash and short-term investments less cheques issued in excess of funds on deposit.

Page 10: Q3 Earnings Presentation - West Fraser€¦ · Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019. 2 General: ... Consolidated Financial Results $ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19 Lumber $

1010Recent US South Capital Projects

McDavid, Florida- New canter line

- Improved recovery

- Greater product mix flexibility

- Unlocks capacity in remainder of mill

Joyce, Louisiana- Log merchandiser

- Improved reliability, reduced operating

costs

- Input flexibility

- Improved recovery

Operationalizing US South Modernization

Page 11: Q3 Earnings Presentation - West Fraser€¦ · Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019. 2 General: ... Consolidated Financial Results $ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19 Lumber $

1111Recent US South Capital Projects

Perry, Florida- Continuous Dry Kilns

- Grade improvements

- Removes bottleneck, unlocks capacity in

remainder of mill

- Energy efficiency and residuals utilization

Augusta, Georgia- Planer mill

- Grade improvements

- Improved working conditions to reduce

turnover, increase throughput

- Reduced operating costs

Operationalizing US South Modernization

Page 12: Q3 Earnings Presentation - West Fraser€¦ · Q3 Earnings Presentation October 2019. 2 General: ... Consolidated Financial Results $ Millions Adjusted EBITDA Q3-19 Q2-19 Lumber $

1212Summary

✕ Continued headwinds in lumber

and pulp pricing

✕ B.C. fiber costs remain elevated

✓ Improved production rates in

NBSK

✓ Completed permanent lumber

capacity reductions at Chasm

and 100 Mile House

✓ Diligently managing operating

schedule in B.C.

✓ Softwood pulp market showing

signs of stability

✓ Ramp down of B.C. lumber

supply underway

✓ Significant financial flexibility to

continue to execute strategy

✓ Operationalizing US South capital

projects

Q3 Update Q4 Outlook