Q2 2012 Charlottesville Nest Report

7/31/2019 Q2 2012 Charlottesville Nest Report

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NestRealty.com 1 of 9

Q2 2012

Charlottesville / Central Virginia Region


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Heating Up At The Core

Weve always said that the local real estate market recovery will start at the core of our market. Based on what we are seeing in the

marketplace, our core markets of the City of Charlottesville and Albemarle County are starting to gain a bit of momentum that will

hopefully lead to continued positive signs in the local real estate market.

Overall, the Charlottesville MSA had a solid Q2. Volume is up and inventory is down - two key components that are great to see. Total

year-over-year sales were up 2.7% and total inventory fell by 7.5%. In addition, months of inventory also improved from Q2 2011 and fell

to 8.76 months of supply. Once again, single family homes continue to lead the way in sales across most sub-markets and attached and

condominium sales are performing admirably.

While its great to see the overall market creeping back to solid ground, its even better to see our core market segments showing stability

and growth. For the first time since we began running our Quarterly Nest Report in 2009, the five year trend for home sales in Albemarle

County is trending in a positive direction. With a 4% increase from Q2 2011, Albemarle has now seen four straight quarters of year-over-

year sales increases. Inventory levels are moving in the right direction also with total inventory levels down 3% year-over-year. But...lest

we get too confident, keep in mind that lower inventory is not necessarily a sign of a recovery; there are a lot of upside-down

homeowners who would love to sell but cant. Until we see appreciation to the point where they can sell, were not going to see a true

recovery.

The City of Charlottesville continued its hot streak this past quarter. The 154 total sales in Q2 were a 11.6% increase from last year and

represents the most Q2 sales since 2008. Single family homes in Charlottesville saw a 19.4% increase in closed sales and a 14.9%

increase in median prices from last years second quarter. Simply put, the Charlottesville real estate market is very active right now. And

yes, inventory levels are down in Charlottesville, too. Overall inventory levels are down to 302 units and 5.59 months of supply. Single

family homes are even more scarce in the City: with 196 units for sale and only 4.26 months of supply. (Remember, anything less than 6

months of inventory is considered a sellers market. Were not quite ready to make the official sellers market statement, but its

trending that way right now in this market segment.)

Theres also a shift in both Albemarle and Charlottesville in that a larger percentage of homes in higher price ranges are selling. Whereas

sales in the last 24 months have been heavily skewed towards homes in the under $250,000 category, we are starting to see a higher

percentage of home sales in upper price brackets. (See pages 5 and 7 for more details.) This shift is most likely due in part to the return

of move-up buyers to the market, as well as buyers who have been sitting and saving on the sidelines who are finally seeing that now is

their time to buy. With improving market conditions, move-up buyers are now more likely to be able to sell their homes and buy their

next home.

This strong second quarter is also impressive for another reason: sales numbers in Q2 2012 are very comparable to sales numbers in Q2

2010. Whats the significance? If you remember, the 2010 tax credit boosted sales in Q2 2010. That tax credit, arguably, did not create

many buyers. Instead, it provided additional motivation for buyers to purchase sooner in 2010...thus artificially boosting sales in Q2. Q3

2010 sales dropped off dramatically because of the tax credit. Its a great sign that local sales numbers for this past quarter are rivaling

those stats.

In closing, were beginning to feel more confident that the Charlottesville area real estate market is beginning to stabilize. Obviously, the

historically low interest rates are helping. While there continues to be some concern with how short sales and foreclosures will affect

values moving forward, its clear that consumers are beginning to gain more confidence in the local and national economies...and are

feeling better about investing their money back into real estate.


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Once again, the overall five year trend for the MSA trends downward...but ever-so-slightly. After years of a fairly significant downward trend, we

seem to be seeing a shift towards the positive side, which is great news. Total Q2 sales for the MSA totaled 780, a slight 2.7% increase from the

759 total sales in Q2 2011. Sales of both single family homes and attached/condos were up year-over-year. Single family home sales increased

2.2%, while attached/condos bounced upward by about 4.5%. Days on Market moved downward by 7.7% to 108 days for single family homes and

increased slightly by 4.5% to 186 days for attached/condos.

Central Virginia/Charlottesville MSA Market Snapshot

Median prices in Q2 increased for both single family homes and attached/condos in the Charlottesville MSA. Single family home prices jumped b

5.5% to $290,000, while attached/condos bounced slightly upward by 0.5% from $189,000 to $190,000. Inventory levels continue to fall. This i

great news. Single family inventory fell to 1820 total units, representing a drop of 5.7%. Attached/condo inventory fell by 14.4% to 465 total

units. Months of inventory stayed in the single digit territory: there is a 7.98 month supply of single family homes and 6.73 months of attached/

condo inventory. Keep in mind that months of inventory levels are typically low in June. Nonetheless, year-over-year inventory levels are

decreasing or staying relatively steady across almost all market segments.

5 YEAR TREND

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Price perSquare Foot

Avg Dayson Market

TotalSales

TotalInventory

Months ofInventory

Q2 2012 $360,841 $342,800 $290,000 $140.00 108 594 1820 7.98

Change -0.4% -0.6% 5.5% -1.4% -7.7% 2.2% -5.7% -7.3%

Q2 2011 $362,183 $344,725 $275,000 $142.00 117 581 1929 8.61

Change 0.5% -0.2% -6.1% -2.1% 9.3% -8.6% -6.5% 12.4%

Q2 2010 $360,319 $345,365 $293,000 $145.00 107 636 2063 7.66

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Price perSquare Foot

Avg Dayson Market

TotalSales

TotalInventory

Months ofInventory

Q2 2012 $215,655 $210,376 $190,000 $139.00 81 186 465 6.73

Change 5.6% 5.9% 0.5% -4.1% 2.5% 4.5% -14.4% 4.2%

Q2 2011 $204,208 $198,569 $189,000 $145.00 79 178 543 6.46

Change -10.7% -12.8% -14.1% 2.8% -7.1% -19.5% -6.4% 10.4%

Q2 2010 $228,597 $227,642 $220,000 $141.00 85 221 580 5.85

Attached/Condo

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Number of Sales)

MSA (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, and Nelson)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12

SingleFamily


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600


Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Total Number of Sales)

Q2 sales of single family homes and attached homes were strong in Albemarle County. However, condominiums suffered a bit. Overall sales

increased by just over 4% from Q2 2011 (from 389 to 405). Single family sales were up (+8%), as were median prices (+1.4%). The average price

per square foot of single family homes fell by 5.0%. Attached homes in Albemarle also fared relatively well: sales were up (3.4%). Median prices

for attached homes decreased slightly (-1.4%) and price per square foot was flat. Condo sales in Albemarle dropped dramatically (-21.6%),

median prices fell (-2.8%) and days on market increased to 110 days.

Albemarle County Market Snapshot

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

Avg$ PSF

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 442,396 420,610 350,500 104 $151 285

Change 2.1% 2.4% 3.1% 4.0% 9.4% 88.7%

Q1 2012 433,379 410,593 340,000 100 $138 151

Q2 2012 442,396 420,610 350,500 104 $151 285

Change -6.8% -6.5% 1.4% -8.0% -5.0% 8.0%

Q2 2011 474,769 449,665 345,750 113 $159 264

SingleFamily

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

Avg$ PSF

TotaSales

Q2 2012 245,074 243,298 230,000 72 $132 91

Change 1.5% 1.1% -3.2% -22.6% 2.3% 54.2%

Q1 2012 241,531 240,672 237,620 93 $129 59

Q2 2012 245,074 243,298 230,000 72 $132 91

Change 5.7% 5.6% -2.0% -1.4% 0.0% 3.4%

Q2 2011 231,886 230,479 234,700 73 $132 88

Attached

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

Avg$ PSF

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 163,627 154,987 120,000 110 $122 29

Change 5.1% 2.5% 18.6% -36.4% 4.3% 11.5%

Q1 2012 155,726 151,240 101,200 173 $117 26

Q2 2012 163,627 154,987 120,000 110 $122 29

Change 12.1% 11.6% -2.8% 80.3% 1.7% -21.6%

Q2 2011 145,956 138,819 123,500 61 $120 37

Condos

Contracts Writte

Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Change

Single Family 241 277 14.9%

Attached 98 103 5.1%

Condos 42 35 -16.7%

The positive five-year trend line for total sales is the biggest news for Albemarle County. This is the first time since we began our Quarterly Nest

Reports in 2009 that the trend has been positive. Contracts Written in Q1 - typically an indicator of future sales - were up for single family and

attached homes. Single family contracts written jumped by 14.9% while contracts on attached homes had a modest 5.1% gain. Albemarle condos

suffered with a 16.7% drop in contracts. Overall inventory levels in Albemarle County also improved. Months of inventory for all properties fell

from 8.11 in June 2011 to 7.4 in June 2012. In addition, total homes for sale also fell slightly from 1201 to 1162 homes.

5 YEAR TREN


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Q2 12

Q1 12

Q4 11

Q3 11

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

2%

4%

3%

2%

3%

3%

5%

3%

10%

13%

10%

14%

42%

37%

39%

46%

42%

44%

44%

35%

Albemarle County Percent of Sales by Price Range

0-250K 250K-500K 500K-750K 750-1M 1M+

Albemarle County Market Snapshot (Part 2)

Sales in Keswick, Southside, 29N, and Crozet once again led the way in Albemarle County. Strong new construction sales in Crozet helped boost

to the #1 sales area in Q2 with 1 out of 5 home sales occurring in Crozet. As compared to Q1: 29N increased from a 14% market share to 17%,

Keswick fell from 17% to 14%, and Southside rose from 14% to 18%. Earlysville, which has been suffering for a few quarters now, posted a

stronger quarter - increasing from 3% to 6% from Q1 2012. Single family homes made up 7 out of every 10 sales in Albemarle County in Q2. Thi

is up from 63% in Q1 2012.

Home sale price distribution changed a bit in Q2, possibly signaling consumer confidence with a penchant for higher priced homes as compared to the

previous three quarters. Homes under $250,000 dropped to only 35% of all total sales. $250,000 - $500,000 homes made up the majority of sales in

Q2 with a 46% share. $500,000 - $750,000 home sales also increased to 14% of the market, that segments highest share in the previous 12 months.

While homes over $750,000 made up a smaller percentage of the market as compared to the previous 2 quarters, there were 11 sales in the $750k -

$1 million range and 7 sales over a million dollars in Q2. Those 18 total sales represent the most $750k+ sales in a quarter in the last 12 months.

9%

14%

10%

20%18%

6%

7%

17%

Albemarle County Sales by Sub-Area

29 North Rio Earlysville SouthsideCrozet Ivy Keswick Barracks

7%

22%

70%

Albemarle County Sales by Type

Single Family Attached Condos


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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Total Number of Sales)

The Charlottesville City real estate market continues its comeback with the 4th straight quarter with year-over-year sales increases. The Citys

154 total sales in Q2 represent the highest Q2 sales volume since 2008. As compared to Q2 2011, total sales were up 11.6% (154 vs. 136) in

2012. Charlottesville single family homes led the way with a 19.4% year-over-year increase. Attached and condominium sales were flat from

2011. However, even with the recent increase in sales, Charlottesville Citys five year trend line is still on a downward slope. This is due, in large

part, to the extremely low sales throughout the 2nd half of 2009 and throughout 2010.

Charlottesville City Market Snapshot

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

Avg$ PSF

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 377,963 354,063 290,000 100 $170 111

Change 22.9% 21.5% 17.2% 3.1% 14.9% 82.0%

Q1 2012 307,509 291,520 247,500 97 $148 61

Q2 2012 377,963 354,063 290,000 100 $170 111

Change 22.5% 20.5% 14.9% -7.4% 7.6% 19.4%

Q2 2011 308,665 293,733 252,500 108 $158 93

SingleFamily

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

Avg$ PSF

TotaSales

Q2 2012 196,690 193,485 200,950 86 $121 10

Change -18.7% -12.4% 26.8% -42.3% 16.3% 42.9%

Q1 2012 241,842 220,899 158,500 149 $104 7

Q2 2012 196,690 193,485 200,950 86 $121 10

Change -2.1% 1.8% 6.7% -39.0% -8.3% 0.0%

Q2 2011 200,820 190,080 188,250 141 $132 10

Attached

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

Avg$ PSF

TotalSales #

Q2 2012 205,200 195,621 180,000 78 $184 33

Change -3.6% -4.6% 11.1% -34.5% -8.5% 50.0%

Q1 2012 212,881 204,981 161,950 119 $201 22

Q2 2012 205,200 195,621 180,000 78 $184 33

Change -1.1% 0.5% 12.5% -2.5% -11.5% 0.0%

Q2 2011 207,496 194,554 160,000 80 $208 33

Contracts Writte

Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Change

Single Family 103 119 15.53%

Attached 15 17 13.33%

Condos 34 34 0.00%

Condos

Median prices in the City also bounced upward in Q2. Single family (+14.9%), attached (+6.7%), and condominium (+12.5%) all showed increases

in median prices. Average sales price also showed increases across the board. Expect Charlottesville Citys sales success to continue: contracts

written were up in Q2 for single family homes (+15.53%) and for attached homes (13.33%). Contracts written for Charlottesville condominiums

were flat year-over-year.

5 YEAR TREND


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Charlottesville City Market Snapshot (Part 2)

Q2 12

Q1 12

Q4 11

Q3 11

0% 25% 50% 75% 100

1%

3%

1%

2%

1%

3%

2%

3%

4%

3%

3%

6%

33%

33%

34%

36%

61%

59%

60%

54%

Charlottesville City Percent of Sales by Price Range

0-250K 250K-500K 500K-750K 750-1M 1M+

By school district, sales in the Burnley Moran and Venable districts outpaced the Clark district, which had held the top spot in Q1. Clarks market

share fell from 24% to 18%. Sales in the Venable district rose from 16% to 21% from Q1 to Q2. As is the case in Albemarle County, single family

homes continue to make up the vast majority of sales in Charlottesville. 72% of homes sold in the City were detached single family (compared to

69% in Q1).

The sub-$250,000 market in the City slowed a bit this past quarter. Representing 54% of the market, sub $250,000 homes were the only pricing

segment to decrease from Q1. The $250,000 - $500,000 segment showed a slight increase to 36% of the market (up from 34% in Q1). In more

good news, the City saw a large increase in $500,000+ sales. There were 9 sales between $500,000 - $750,000, 4 between $750,000 - $1

million, and 3 over $1 million: each of these numbers represents the highest totals for each category over the last 12 months. Obviously, this is a

great sign that higher priced homes are selling again.

21%

6%

72%

Charlottesville City Sales by Type

Single Family Attached Condos

21%

18%

10% 11%

18%

21%

Charlottesville City Sales by Elementary School Area

Burnley Moran Clark GreenbrierJackson-Via Johnson Venable


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Average

List Price

Average

Sale Price

Median

Sale Price

Avg Days

on Market

Total

Sales #

Total

Inventory

Months of

InventoryQ2 2012 $214,597 $206,609 $171,500 93 100 364 8.87

Change -4.2% -3.2% -12.5% -28.5% 28.2% -5.2% -35.3%

Q2 2011 $223,921 $213,368 $196,000 130 78 384 13.71

Change -6.8% -10.1% -8.4% 56.6% -21.2% -2.0% 46.9%

Q2 2010 $240,162 $237,444 $214,000 83 99 392 9.33

Average

List Price

Average

Sale Price

Median

Sale Price

Avg Days

on Market

Total

Sales #

Total

Inventory

Months of

InventoryQ2 2012 $236,698 $233,798 $240,000 128 45 255 10.2

Change -1.2% -2.0% 6.0% 25.5% -32.8% 5.4% 26.6%

Q2 2011 $239,512 $238,523 $226,500 102 67 242 8.06

Change -16.7% -14.7% -9.0% -7.3% -2.9% -3.6% -10.0%

Q2 2010 $287,646 $279,668 $249,000 110 69 251 8.96

Fluvanna County

Contracts Written

Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Change

76 126 65.8%

One word for Fluvanna: Wow. Fluvanna was hot in Q2. Year-over-year sales were up from 78

to 100 (+28.2%), total inventory was down to 364 units (-5.2%), and months of inventory

decreased significantly to 8.87 months (-35.3%). In addition, contracts written were up 65.8%

(from 76 to 126). Whats brought this on? Lower prices and underwater homeowners. Median

sales prices have plummeted over the last few years in Fluvanna. Median prices in Q2 2012 are

off almost 20% from just 2 years ago. Buyers are clearly being attracted to these lower prices in

Fluvanna.

Contracts Written

Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Change

70 49 -30.0%

As hot as the Fluvanna real estate market was in Q2, Greene County is that cold. Greene sales

were off over 32% from Q2 2011. In addition, inventory (+5.4%) and months of inventory

(+26.6%) both saw fairly large year-over-year increases. Days on market in Greene were up

from 102 days from Q2 2011 to 128 days in Q2 2012. Things continue to be on the downward

trend for Greene: contracts written in Q2 were off by 30% from last year. Greene County real

estate saw fairly healthy increases during 2011 and it seems as though values may now be

turning off potential buyers. The slowdown in Greenes real estate could also be tied to the

slight drop in expected DIA/NGIC jobs.

Greene County

Overall

Overall


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AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

TotalSales #

TotalInventory

Months ofInventory

Q2 2012 $239,303 $226,975 $160,000 97 41 213 11.83

Change 10.6% 7.8% -3.3% -4.9% 0.0% -14.5% -19.2%

Q2 2011 $216,296 $210,490 $165,500 102 41 249 14.64

Change -9.9% -9.5% -23.6% -5.6% -33.9% 2.9% 39.2%

Q2 2010 $240,147 $232,687 $216,500 108 62 242 10.52

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

TotalSales #

TotalInventory

Months ofInventory

Q2 2012 $248,765 $230,442 $200,000 181 35 340 28.33

Change -23.9% -24.3% -13.0% 5.8% -27.1% -10.8% 11.5%

Q2 2011 $326,863 $304,335 $230,000 171 48 381 25.4

Change -9.8% -10.6% -26.5% 21.3% 9.1% -11.4% -17.3%

Q2 2010 $362,533 $340,424 $312,750 141 44 430 30.71

Contracts Written

Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Change

51 63 23.5%

Louisa County has seen a fairly healthy real estate market over the last few quarters. Q2 sales

in Louisa were flat and median sales prices dropped ever-so-slightly to $160,000 (-3.3%).

However, on the plus side, total inventory fell by 14.5% to 213 total units and months of

inventory dropped a whopping 19.2% to 11.83 months of supply. Those are drastic

improvements in inventory levels - that should bode well for future sales in Louisa. Along

those lines, contracts written in Q2 were up 23.5% from last year. So, Louisa continues to show

some solid real estate numbers.

Contracts Written

Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Change

38 34 -10.5%

Nelson County is still feeling the aftershocks of Wintergreens financial crisis. Even with the

signs pointing to a new ownership group, it will take a while for Nelson to achieve some

stability. Year-over-year total sales fell by 27.1% in Q2. In addition, median sale prices (-13%),

average sale prices (-10.6%) and average list prices (-23.9%) were all down. While total

inventory also fell (-10.8%), the lack of sales caused the monthly supply in Nelson to jump by

11.5% to 28.33 months. However, contracts written in Q2 2012 were off by only 4 from 2011

(38 vs 34). Heres to hoping that the Nelson County real estate market can stabilize soon.

Louisa County

Nelson County

Overall

Overall

*Some statistics in this report come courtesy of the Charlottesville Area MLS as of 7/9/12.

Documents

Q2 2012 Charlottesville Nest Report