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SCIENCE.FRIDAY, DECEMBER 31, 1886.

COMMENT AND CRITICISMZ.

MR. EDWARD ATKINSON of Boston has for yearsranked as one of the fir.A statisticians in the world.To be a statistician implies a great deal. It im-plies more than a prodigious memory in retainingfigures, and more than an untiring energy m

gathering them together. The statistician mustadd to these qualities a graphic power of presen-tation and an insight into the real meaning offigures, which amount almost, if not quite, togenius. All of these qualities Mr. Atkinson pos-sesses in a marked degree, and his two articles on' The relative strength and weakness of nations,'contributed to the Century magazine, the first ofwhich is published to-day, show them at theirbest. These articles are certain to be widely readand discussed, not only by the general reader, butby the economist, who will pay particular atten-tion to Mr. Atkinson's methods and his interpreta-tion of his results. Much of this first article readslike a chapter from ' Triumphant democracy,' andthe ingenious illustrations used by the author addgreatly to its force. Since 1865 we find that ourpopulation has increased 69 per cent; our hay-crop, 106 per cent; our cotton-crop, 194 per cent;our grain-crop, 256 per cent; our railway mileage,280 per cent; our insurance against fire, 310 percent; and our production of pig-iron, 386 percent.

Mr. Atkinson's warning to the military powersof Europe is, ' Disarm or starve.' He holds thatthe annual product of a country is the source ofwages, profits, and taxes. If one secure a largerproportion than now exists, the other two mustsupply it. Furthermore, Mr. Atkinson believesthat wages, earnings. salaries, and the income ofthe small farm, are not the measure of the cost ofproduction, but the results of the conditions, bothmaterial and mental, under which the work isdone. From this it follows that the wages orearnings will be higher in that country which isnot weighted down by the cost of a large standingarmy or the burden of a heavy war debt, and inwhich the work is done by the most intelligent

No. 204.-1886.

people, under the most favorable conditions. Themental. material, and political influesce of such acountry will become the most potent factor in theworld's commerce. This is the future Mr. Atkin-son sees for the United States. The keynote ofthe argument for democracy against dynasties iscommerce. Mr. Atkinson estimates the world'spopulation at 1,400,000,000, of whom 400,000,000,are classed as machine-using. The other 1,000,-000,000, being non-machine using, must dependalmost wholly on the work of their hands forproduction. The control of the commerce of theworld lies in the answer to the question, Which ofthe machine-using nations shall supply the needof the non-miiachine using nations? Mr. Atkinsonsees that the nations of Europe cannot sustainthemselves under their present conditions withoutcommerce; but, if they hold to their present con-ditions, the United States, by virtue of its highwages and low cost of production, will take theircommierce away from them. Therefore he saysto the dynastic countries, ' Disarm or starve.'

The reasons for the vast gain in the conditionsof material welfare in the United States, Mr. At-kinson finds to be seven. The first is the freepurchase and sale of land, and the stability re-sulting from the large number of land-owners.The second is the absolute freedom of exchangebetween the states. The third is the extension ofthe common-school system. The fourth is theright of suffrage, with the consequent feeling ofindependence every voter possesses. The fifth isthe conservation of local self-government in itsstrictest sense. The sixth is the existence of gen-eral state laws which preclude the possibility ofany monopoly of the mechanism of exchange.The seventh is our habit of organization and self-government, which is so far developed, that "ifany thousand persons were suddenly removed tosome far-distant place, away from their fellow-men, the men of adult age would immediatelyorganize an open meeting, choose a moderator,supervisor, or mayor, elect a board of selectmen,of assessors of taxes, and a school committee, ap-point one or two corstables, and then, adopting theprinciple of the English common law, would atonce undertake their customary gainful occupa-

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620 SOCIE

tions." These seven reasons may not be distinct,and we are inclined to believe that they are re-ducible to fewer; but, at all events, they form acomprehensive summary the value of which isnot impaired by elaboration. Mr. Atkinson al\onegatlves that foolish fallacy, now so widely helothat the "rich are growing richer, and the poor-poorer." Its main force lies in the euphony of itsexpression.

Impressed, as we well may be, with the phe-nomenal development of the United States andthe magnificent possibilities that lie before it, yetwe must study development elsewhere as often aswe can find it. That Great Britain has not beenstanding still for the past decade, Mr. Mulhallconclusively proves in the Contemporary review.Since 1875 the population of the United Kingdomhas increased 12 per cent; wealth, 22 per cent;trade, 29 per cent; shipping, 67 per cent; and in-struction, 68 per cent. During the ten years thenatural increase of the population has been 1,200daily, and the outflow to the United States andthe colonies has averaged 600 daily. Besides thisnatural increase, there has been an immigrationof 1,317,000 persons, consisting of returned colo-nists and foreign settlers: 65 per cent of the emi-gration came to the United States. Mr. Muilhallwants the medical association to investigate thefact, that, while the marriages have declined only1.5 per cent. the births have fallen off 5.5 per cent.He considers that this furnishes ground for graveapprehensions of physical decadence. The con-dition of the people at large has materially im-proved in the ten years. Pauperism has declined(the rate per thousand of population being 27 in1885, as against 41 in 1870, and 48 in 1850), savyings-bank deposits have increased, and there hasbeen increased consumption per capita of tea,sugar, meat, and grain. The criminal statisticsshow a large decrease in the number of commit-tals, and the average number of children attend-ing primary schools has risen 68 per cent in tenyears. The bankruptcies are fewer than in 1875,and the consumption of alcoholic drinks has de-creased.

Mr. Mulhall's conclusions from his study of thefigures are very gratifying, the only two unfavor-able items being the decline in the ratio of thenumber of births per marriage, and the lamentablecondition of Ireland. The fall in the death-rateis ascribed to sanitary improvements and the in-

17MOE.. [VOL. VIII., No. 204

creased consumption of wholesome food. The24-per-cent decline in the conisumption of liquor isespecially to be noted, and considered in connec-tion with the 82-per-cent increase in the savingsof the working-classes, the larger amount ofwheat and meat consumed, and the decrease of36 per cent in crime and of 33 per cent in pauper-ism. Mr. Mulball's fikures are confirmatory ofMr. Atkinson's argument; for Great Britain isvirtually a democracy, and, while subjected to alarge annual expense for her army and navy, thisis nothing like the drain upon her resources thatthe cost of their military establishments is to thegreat continental powers. Mr. Atkinson's furthercontributions to this discussion will be awaitedwith interest, and we shall expect some criticismof his fundamental tenets from economists.

I,

Meanwhile Mr. Atkinson's position, that "highwages, either in money or in what money will buy,are the correlative or reflex of a low cost of pro-duction measured by labor or effort," receives anindorsement in some statistics that the UnitedStates consul, at Tunstall has communicated tothe department of state. He says in regard tosilk, that, in a Macclesfield mill, 144 hands areemployed in throwing 500 pounds of Canton silk,with average earnings of $2.25 a week; whilein an American mill 80 hands throw from 1,000to 1,200 pounds of Canton silk at an average wageof $5.50 per week. So American average earningsof $5.50 give far better results than the Englishaverage earnings of $2.25. This instance fromthe silk industry is supplemented by one from theboot and shoe industry; Frankfort-on-the-Main,and Lynn, Mass., furnishing the data. The pricepaid at a factory near Franldort-on-the-Main formaking uppers for ladies' high-top button gaitersis 21 cents a pair; while the cost of the samelabor in Lynn, Mass., is 11 cents, or nearly 50 percent less than in Germany. The whole boot,solid and finished, and laid in boxes, costs 33cents in Lynn. which is far below what it is inGermany. The actual earnings in G,ermany, takenfrom the work accounts, are, on the average perhand employed, $3.38, while in Lynn they arenot less than $9 per week.

TirE FALLACY CONTAINED in the common sayingthat numbers cannot lie, is well shown in the re-

cent discussion of the statistics of insanity by Dr.D. Hack Tuke. The statistics may be all right,

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SCIEXCE3.

but they must be taken in a certain way to war-rant definite concluLsions. From the facts thatmore cases of insanity are now treated, that wehave more asvlums, and that our age is called aneurotic one, the mournful conclusion is drawnthat a greater proportion of civilized humanity issuccumbing to the stringent requirements of mod-ern life, and losing its mental equilibrium. Dr.Tuke shows, that, by such statistics, the insane ofthe past thirty years or so, whose lives our im-proved methods of treatment have succeeded inprolonging, are pushed upon our shoulders. Thereal test of the prevalence of insanity is the pro-portion of first attacks occurring within certainperiods. On this basis, Dr. Tuke shows that since1878 (the earliest date from which adequate statis-tics exist) there is no increase in occurring insan-ity in Great Britain. On the whole, there is aslight tendency to decrease; and this, too, thoughcases are now more apt than ever to be brought tonotice. Of course, this should not lessen our vigi-lance in the matter, nor remove our attentionfrom that large class on the borderland of insanitywhich is not recorded, and fromi which any sud-den crisis chooses its victims.

THE PHYSIOLOGY OF DIGESTION has been sothorouighly investigated of late years, that itwould seem that there could be very little oppor-tunity for difference of opinion on most of itsleading principles, and yet we find that authori-ties are on some points very much at variance.We are told that nothing can be more prejudicialthan the habit of chewing gum, supposed to be socommon among school-children. The salivaryglands are unnaturally excited, and pour forthso much saliva in the act, that when food ismasticated they are not able to respond as fullyas is necessary for the proper insalivation of thefood. We are also informed that food should notbe eaten just before retiring; that thoroughly re-freshing sleep requires perfect repose of all theorgans ; and that, if we go to sleep with a more orless full stomach, sleep will be disturbed and un-satisfactory. The authorities of Amherst collegeevidently do not agree with these views. In theinstructions which they give to their students toguide them in their gymnastic exercises, afterspecifying the kind and amount of physical exer-

cise, they recommend sleeping for half an hourafter dinner and supper if possible, and, if sleep-less at night from brain-work, to eat a few grahamcrackers before retiring, to draw the excess of

621

blood from the brain to the stomach. In referenceto the practice of chewing gum, this statement ismade: chewing gum daily before eating and be-tween meals increases the flow of saliva, and soaids the digestion of fat-making foods. It alsoindirectly stimulates the secretion of the digestivejuices of the stomach. We have no means ofknowing, but we presume that Professor Hitch-cock of Amherst, who is himself a physician, islargely responsible for this advice, and have nodoubt that he has given it after mature considera-tion. We fully agree with what is said i:n the in-structions about the usefulness of food in cases ofsleeplessness, and believe that many a person hasbeen kept awake at night from a mistaken idea ofthe necessity of abstemiousness before retiring.This, of course, does not mean that late suppersare under all circumstances to be recommended;but a few graham crackers can never do harm,and will -often do good. In regard to the chewing-gum, we do not feel so sure. Besides being apractice which is from an aesthetic point of viewnot to be encouraged, it is very doubtful whether,under the most favorable circumstances, it isreally a benefit to digestion; and, until there issome guaranty as to the composition of what iscalled chewing-gum, we should hesitate beforerecommending it in such unqualified terms.

A FULL ACCOUNT of the Union Pacific railroadweather-service has been furnished to the news-papers in the west by Lieutenant Powell of thesignal service, who is in charge of the new enter-prise, and now engaged in bringing it into shapefor practical work. There will be thirty-threestations in all. -It is proposed to issue predictionstwice a day, announcing the expected weatherchanges from twenty-four to forty-eight hoursbeforehand. This will give the railroad officialsample time before the trains start in the after-noon and morning to make any changes whichthe predicted weather may necessitate. Thepredictions will be couched in specific lan-guage, and not in meaningless general terms.For instance: one indication will predict in acertain division cold weather with snow, thewind being from the north and blowing at therate of thirty miles an hour, followed by warmerweather, the wind changing to a southerly direc-tion. Study of the road will determine wherethe worst snow-drifts most frequently occur, andfrom this it will be possible to tell pretty nearlywhere snow blockades are liable to form. An accu-

DECEMBER 31, 1886.1

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622 SCIEWNCE.rate and comprehensive weather-service will enablethe Union Pacific to save thousands of dollarsevery week to its patrons. If storms can beaccurately predicted beforehand, the stockmen canwithhold their shipments and allow cattle to besent through without danger of perishing by beingcaught in blockades or blizzards. One prominentcattleman recently said that such a system of pre-dictions, if accurate, would be the means of sav-ing him fifty thousand dollars every year. Thepractical working of this service will be watchedwith much interest by raiload men in all parts ofthe country.

In the prominent mention given just now to themeteorological enterprise of the Union Pacificrailroad, it should not be forgotten that very con-siderable contributions towards increasing thevalue of the signal service are made by otherroads. The display of weather-flags on manywestern and southern lines is no small matter, forone of the greatest difficulties that the service hasto contend with is the delay in placing its indica-tions in the hands of those who wish to knowthem. The predictions based on the seven A.M.observations, and issued about ten o'clock fromWashington, are read by most persons only at fiveor six o'clock in the evening, or later, when thetime covered by the prediction is already welladvanced. Besides this, there is a large contribu-tion of temperature, wind, and general weatherobservations made to the Pacific coast division ofthe service, at present in charge of LieutenantGlassford, by the Southern Pacific railroad com-pany. Observations are taken daily at seven A.M.at about a hundred and twenty stations on theirwide-branching lines, making a valuable additionto the tri-daily reports from the twenty regularstations of the service on the Pacific slope.

THnE FIRST PUBLISHED print of the topographi-cal survey of Massachusetts, executed jointly bythe U. S. geological survey and the state, was themap of the Greylock-Williamstown-North Adamsdistrict, issued last summer by the ApDalachianmountain club on the scale of the original plane-table sheets (1 30,000), and of which mention basbeen made in Science. The same district is nowpublished in its official form, on a scale of an inchto a mile (1: 62,500), with brown contours everytwenty feet, blue water-courses, and black roads,towns, and lettering. Old Greylock makes a finecentre for the sheet, and its sharply moulded form

[VOL. VIII., No. 204

is well displayed in the crowded contours on itssteeper slopes. The curious 'Hopper,' with itsdeep-cut outlet valley opening to the west, is oneof the best-marked topographic forms in the state.There ought to be found here a nocturnal wind-stream as distinct as the water-stream that flowsfrom so well-developed a drainage surface; foron calm clear nights, as the air near the groundcools by conduction to the radiating earth, it be-comes heavy, and, if resting on an inclined sur-face, tends to flow down it; if a large surfacelead downward to a narrow valley exit, like thatfrom the Hopper, a distinct mountain breezeshould be felt at the mouth. This should bestudied and defined, so that our teachers need notgo abroad to Switzerland, or even so far away asthe Cordilleras of the west, to find illustration ofphenomena that are doubtless distinct enough nearhome.

The deep valley separating Greylock from theHoosac range is included in this sheet almost tothe head of its stream, the Hoosic, a little southof the village of Berkshire. From the low passthat leads southward to the Housatonic valley,the Hoosic runs north before turning at NorthAdams westward to Williamstown, and thereforepresents an example of that class 'of streams thatsuffered obstruction in the latter stages of theglacial period ; for, when the southern marginalremnants of the ice-sheet lay in the deeper valleys,they blockaded the streams that ran towardsthem, and flooded them into lakes that commonlyrose until they overflowed backwards across theirdivides to the south. Glen Roy in Scotland, withits 'parallel roads,' is a famous example of thekind; the Red River valley of Minnesota andDakota is a very large illustration of essentiallythe same type; the northward-flowing Contoocookin New Hampshire has been obstructed in thesame way, according to Upham; but not a singleexample of a valley thus modifled has yet beendescribed in Massachusetts. It is time that themany examples which undoubtedly exist shouldbe brought to light, that they may contributetheir share to the proper foundation of geographicstudy. Enough has been done in the broad,vague way of distant continental homologies:what is now needed is the local examination ofminute topographic details, so that we may learnto see and appreciate the forms about us at home;and nothing will lead sooner or surer to this long-de-layed end than the publication of good topographic

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DECEMBER 31, 1886.] SCIE

maps. The educational value of these maps willalone repay the people of Massachusetts over andover again for their share in the cost of makingthem.

WHENCE COME RACE CHARACTERS?ONE is often led to speculate as to the origin of

national peculiarities; and soon such speculationstake one to the conclusion that a great deal ofwhat characterizes a nation in the way of mentaltraits is not an intrinsic quality of the race, butakin rather to folk-lore, as to its origin at least.There are modes of the mind, and fashions ofthought, whiclh spread by propinquity. Suchmodes may give currency to superstitious tales ofwitchcraft, to foolish prejudices, or to great in-tellectual impulses. Every man's mind is a coun-try inhabited by ideas, very few of which are au-tochthonous. His opinions are an immigrantpopulace; and, when a sturdy thought goes forthfrom the mind of its birth, it breeds abundantexact reproductions of itself in many other minds.Indeed, most thinking is repetitive. So, when astrong man appears, his example establishes atendency in those about him; and, if he is highlyendowed, he founds a school perhaps, of poli-tics, art, or science, as the case may be. If manysuch men come in one epoch and in one nation,it may well happen that their conjoint impulsesmay lead a whole nation in a certain develop-mental direction, without the qualities which be-come prominent really being intrinsic race char-acters.

It is a legitimate question, and one possessed ofdeep meaning, Are the Germans more musical in-herently than other peoples, or has the succes-sion of splendid musical geniuses among them atonce guided and accelerated the musical cultureof the nation? The same alternative query arisesR;oncerning the pre-eminence of Italian paintingor of English literature. Or we may make thecomplementary inquiry. Does the lack of certainqualities in a nation depend on the lack of theright leaders? To go back to the Germans, atwhom indeed we are aiming all the while, dothey lack American inventiveness because it is no-wise in them, or merely because they have neverbeen rightlv impelled into the habit of inventionby example-giving inventors? Probably for thelatter reason, for German scientific men havedone their share in inventing scientific apparatus,and the Germans who come to America learn toinvent. The final interest of these considerationsresides in the decision as to whether national de-fects of certain kinds cannot be remedied by tui-tion and right leadership. It must be left, however,

IVUE. 623

for some powerful investigator to definitely solvethese problems by rigid historical research. Letus, however, by an act of cheerful faith, acceptthe belief in possible betterment even unto think-ing that the German people may acquire the liter-ary instinct.

I have referred on several occasions in thecolumns of Science to the absence of theliterary sense in German scientific men. Itis one of the most flagrant arguments againstthe classical education, with its suipposed re-sults of literary culture, that the Germans,who have school doses of classics much largerand more concentrated than are administered inthe rest of the world, themselves write morebarbarously than any other civilized western people.German scientific articles are full of sentenceslike this, which refers to the brisitles servingamong arthropods as organs of touch: "I Man darffur wahrscheinlich halten, dass die so sehr wech-selnde gestalt und ausbildung der 'Tastborsten'nach der art des thieres und den k6rpergegendennoch bestimmten nebenzwecken zu dienen hat,ohne dass wir uns davon rechenschaft zu gebenverm6gen." 1 Now, the author of this sentence isone of the most distinguished and justly distin-guished of German zoologists, but his manner ofwriting is similar in quality to that of most sci-entific writers in Germany. The sentence isneither better nor worse than thousands uponthousands of others, perpetrated by his country-men equally without literary feeling. The Ger-mans need literary conscience to reprove themfor all their awkward and involved phrases, thattheir souls may know how guilty they are in ig-noring their readers' rights. The quoted sentencewas evidqptly written without attention to theforms of expression. It never occurred to theauthor that aught was due the reader. His mean-ing cannot be had except by an effort. It is ill-mannered to give others so much trouble, when alittle pains on one's own part miglht save it. Acultivated Frenchman would be incapable of sucha rudeness. The pith of the evil is the indiffer-ence of the German author as to how he writes:he feels no inward necessity of having a goodstyle, and is inclined to despise the French quali-ties of grace and lucidity.Perhaps reiterated cormplaints will stimulate im-

provement. May it be brought about that the fewgood writers among German savants will havesoon many imitators. It is, to be sure, moretrouble to write well than to write ill. We allhave facilities for bad logic, bungling rhetoric, andpoor composition; but these utndesirable giftsought not to excuse tus from striving after their

1 Zoologischer anzeiger, ix. 28.

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COMMENT AND CRITICISM

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