Putin is back:Russian Foreign Policy

– Continuity or Change?

New President, New Russia: What Next?14.03.2012

Hanna SmithAleksanteri Instituutti, Helsingin yliopisto

Politics of PutinRussia offers: pragmatism, predictability and the

supremacy of international law.Russia expects: Respect and honesty”Weak will be beaten””There is no such think as a former KGB man”The world is an extremely risky and hostile environmentRussia is an independent power centre guided by its own

national interestsA serious man, who never changes his view, whatever the

political environment.2

SUNRISE - EastChina, China, China (Russia’s desire to develop

Siberia and the Far East, economic incentives) India (strategic partners) – common in being

differentRussian chairmanship in G20 in 2013No need to challenge the sovereignty of nations +

variety of valuesUS foreign policy also turning towards the Asia-

Pacific region

3

DAYTIME – the lands betweenThe area of the former Soviet Union was, is and

will be Russia’s priorityPutin called for greater participation in

Afghanistan to block the routes of drug trafficking and financial flows to terrorists (troops withdrawal 2014?)

Battle for Central AsiaEurasian Union (free-trade zone, a common space

of language, science, and culture, infrastructureThe carrot-and-stick approach (e.g. Azerbaijan,

higher tariffs and fees for Russian energy, the threat of labour immigrants)

4

SUNSET - WestRussia is an inalienable and organic part of

Greater Europe and of the European civilization, and Russian citizens think of themselves as Europeans.

BUTArab Spring (esp.Syria)European credit crisis Iran's nuclear program (room to manoeuvre)Missile programme (single most significant factor) The role of NATO It’s up to US how relations will develop

5

ConclusionsChange in style: Putin's style is harsher,

more forceful and also more cynical than that of outgoing president Dmitry Medvedev.

Continuity in substance: National interests. Sovereignty. International Law.

Change in priorities: West to East from modernization alliances to strategic partners

Continuity is in belief: Russia is a great power and one day will be treated so. From Great Power to Superpower?

6

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!