1

AASCIF Convention 2015: Bridging the Future

San Francisco July 6

Terrance J. Bogyo

Independent Researcher | Speaker | Consultant

Introduction: Who is this presenter? Terrance (Terry) J. Bogyo (BSc, MBA, CCRC, RRP)

In de p e n de n t Re s e a rc h e r | S p e a ke r | Con s u l t a n t

1665 58 A Street

Delta, BC V4L 1X5

e-mail: Terry.Bogyo@gmail.com

Blog: www.WorkersCompPerspectives.wordpress.com

Phone: (604) 943-3545

Skype: terry.bogyo

Canada and California are not so very different when it comes to Workers’ Compensation Canada

Employed labour force 2014: 17,802,200

Estimated covered by workers’ comp boards: 2013: 14.8 million

Actual [weighted]Average Assessment Rate for Assessable employers [2013]($/$100): 1.94

California Employment

Dec 2014: 17,566,281 Estimated number of

workers covered by workers’ comp insurance: 2014: 14.7 million

Average Workers’ Compensation Insurer Rate per $100 of Payroll, as of June 30, 2014 (Dollar $): 2.96

Canada and California are not so very different when it comes to Workers’ Compensation Canada

Typical TT Compensation rate: 90% of Net Earnings No waiting period Max insured 2014: varies by province-

BC: $77,900 Alberta: $92,300 Manitoba: No Max, Ontario: $84,100

Administration Costs for Assessable

Employers ($000's) ($) 2011: $1,474,841 [No equivalent for underwriting profit]

California Typical TT Compensation rate:

2/3rds Average Weekly Wage Three day waiting period Max insured 2014: $1,611.96 per week

Administration costs for insured

employers 2007*: Insurer underwriting profit:

$1,976 million, Administration expense:

$5,323 million

*IWH Workers' compensation in California and Canada

https://www.iwh.on.ca/briefings/comp-california-canada 2010

Purpose and Outline Demographic Effects: Global Changes – Local Impacts

Purpose:

To persuade you that global demographic changes matter.

Outline

What we mean by demographics

How workforce and population demographics are changing

What demographic change means to you and me, our families, our communities– and AASCIF jurisdictions

Demographics dem·o·graph·ics (dĕm'ə-grăf'ĭks) noun

shortened term for ‘population characteristics’ including

race, age, income, educational attainment

Healthcare plan membership, multiple-job holding

home ownership, employment status, location

...

2

Top 10 Countries by Population

10 http://sasweb.ssd.census.gov/idb/ranks.html

Viewed May 21, 2015

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

1,600,000,000 2015

2025

2035

Rise and Fall of Top Economies by 2050

Philippines will advance 27 places to 16th largest economy.

Japan’s working population will contract by a 37%

Advanced economies in Europe will see working population dwindle

Biggest drop will be felt northern Europe: Denmark to 56th ( -29),

Norway to 48th ( -22),

Sweden to 38th (-20)

Finland to 57th (-19).

HSBC 2050 list of top economies (change in rank from 2010)

1) China (+2) 2) U.S. (-1)

3) India (+5) 4) Japan (-2)

5) Germany (-1)

16) Philippines (+27)

6) UK (-1)

7) Brazil (+2)

8) Mexico (+5)

9) France (-3)

10) Canada (same)

January 12th, 2012 “World’s top economies in 2050 will be...”

Posted by: CNN.com business producer, Kevin Voigt

http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/12/worlds-top-economies-in-2050-will-be/

Top 10 Countries by Population speaking…

Country English

Speakers

United States 251,388,301

India 125,226,449

Philippines 89,800,000

Nigeria 79,000,000

United Kingdom 59,600,000

Germany 46,272,504

Canada 25,246,220

France 23,000,000

Australia 17,357,833

Italy 17,000,000

Country Spanish

Speakers

Mexico 109,955,400

Colombia 45,013,674

United States 44,321,038

Argentina 40,677,348

Spain 40,491,051

Peru 29,180,899

Venezuela 26,414,815

Chile 16,454,143

Ecuador 13,927,650

Guatemala 13,002,206 Source: www.Mapsofworld.com 2013 data

Population Changes in the US By 2050, out of every 10:

5 Americans will be white 3 Hispanic 1 Black 1 Asian

Jeffrey S. Passel and D’Vera Cohn, US Population Projections, 2005-2050, Pew Research Center February 11, 2008

“It is estimated that by 2050 the United States will be home to more 130 million Hispanics, making it the largest Spanish-speaking nation on the planet.” Peter Reuell, “Watching Spanish grow: FAS-based

observatory to be a center for language study”, Harvard Gazette, June 26, 2013

http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/85.pdf

America’s Hinge Moment Presidential politics in

2016 will reflect the shifting reality of America 1980 – 80% US

population was white

2060 - <44%

Politico Magazine – Mar 29, 2015: America’s Hinge

Moment by Doug Sosnik (democratic strategist, former advisor to Pres. Bill Clinton)

Average Employment Income by Age Group & Education Level

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

20 to24

25 to29

30 to34

35 to39

40 to44

45 to49

50 to54

55 to59

60 to64

Less than high school

High school

Trades

College

University

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census of Population.

Note: data is 2005 dollars

3

Unemployment and Weekly Earnings by Demographic of “Educational Attainment” – US 2012

13.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0

Unemployment rate in 2012 (Percent)

0 500 1000 1500

Less than a high school diploma

High school diploma

Some college, no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Professional degree

Median weekly earnings ($)

Occupations with higher than average projected growth rates 2012-22

BLS: US Future Job Outlook

http://www.census.gov/newsroom/cspan/emplo

yment_projections/20140131_employment_proj

ections_slides.pdf

Demographics of Multiple Job Holders (Concurrent Employment)

Multiple Jobholding

5-6% of the employed labour force Ranges up to nearly 10%

In some occupations, nearly 30%

Highest among women, young adults(20-24)

Sex and occupation Multiple jobholding rate (percent)

Men

Firefighters................................................. 28.6

Emergency medical technicians &paramedics...20.1

Secondary school teachers......................... 14.0

Social workers............................................. 13.5

Elementary and middle school teachers....... 11.5

Women

Dental hygienists........................................ 12.9 Psychologists.............................................. 12.5

Postsecondary teachers............................... 11.9

Physical therapists...................................... 11.7

Therapists, all other..................................... 11.5

BLS Monthly Labor Review July 2010

Half of North American WC Jurisdictions don’t cover Temporary Total Disability loss on Concurrent jobs

Most generous cover losses in all multiple jobs for Total Temp Disability including uninsured and self-employment

(Ohio, WorkSafeBC)

Some restrict coverage

Similar Employment (Oklahoma)

Concurrent employment known to accident employer (Kentucky)

IRS Reported Income (Texas, ND)

WC covered employment

(WorkSafeNB, Kentucky)

AASCIF

Good news for multiple job holders. Prevalence of multiple job

holding is higher than national averages in AASCIF states

Most member jurisdictions (Canada and the US) cover concurrent employment for TTD fully or with some restrictions

Demographic: SSDI Recipients • California

Has 8% of the nation’s SSDIrecipients (2012)

That’s 3.1% of the state resident population aged 18 to 64 (4.7% nationally) (762,133 recipients

Dec 2012)

Most common causes Mental disorders 305,382

(“mood disorders” 127,452)

Musculoskeletal 214,719

US SS Disability Insurance Recipients at year end: 1999 4,879,455

2013 8,942,584

Monthly Expenditure as of January 2014 (disabled workers only) $10.236 Billion

Social Security benefits, January 2014 Quick Facts Table 2 http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/

That’s about $123B per year. About a third of all countries on earth have a GDP less than

that value.

Demographic: SSDI Recipients • California

Has 8% of the nation’s SSDI recipients (2012)

That’s 3.1% of the state resident population aged 18 to 64 (4.7% nationally) (762,133 recipients

Dec 2012)

Most common causes Mental disorders 305.382

(“mood disorders” 127,452)

Musculoskeletal 214,719

4

SSDI Trust Fund Ratio Fund Ratio = 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑠

𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡× 100

Current Ratio= 62%

Projection: Reserve depletion in 2016

Social Security Disability Insurance “Social Security’s Disability Insurance (DI)

program satisfies neither the Trustees’ long-range test of close actuarial balance nor their short-range test of financial adequacy and faces the most immediate financing shortfall of any of the separate trust funds.” Reason: “…largely reflects the fact that the baby

boomers have been aging through the years of high disability incidence”

Result: 62% Funded Ratio Recommendation: “Lawmakers need to act soon

to avoid automatic reductions in payments to DI beneficiaries in late 2016.”

Your “Demographic” baby boomer - People born between (and including)

1946 and 1964.

generation X - 1963 and 1978 (or 1961 to 1981).

generation Y – aka millennials (Echo Boomers) - 1981 and 1997(ish).

generation Z - loosely defined as those born after 1995 and who are now 20 and young. It’s a big group: two billion worldwide, and one-quarter of the North American population.

Let’s get personal On the top of the page write

The year you were born

Your age on your birthday this year

The age you expect to retire

What do you think your life expectancy was at birth?

If you were 65 today, how many more years do you think you might live?

Do you plan to work after you reach retirement age?

So, How will the US Labor Force change?

Higher rates of participation for women

Lower rates for men

Based on Data from: US Census Bureau, 2012 Statistical Abstract - Employment Projections Table 587- Civilian Labor Force and Participation Rates

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/labor_force_employment_earnings/employment_projections.html

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Demographic Groups - Participation Rate (%) Civilian Labor Force

White Male

White Female

Black Male

Black Female

Asian Male

Asian Female

Hispanic Male

Hispanic Female

US Women Participation Rates in the Civilian Labour Force 1950-2007 and 2012 (unadjusted, quarterly averages by year)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74

age categories

Part

icip

ati

on

Rate

(%

) 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2007

2007 M

2012

Source: Labor Force Statistics from the

Current Population Survey DATA.BLS.GOV

5

Labor Force Participation Rate of Workers 65 and Over 1948-2007 and projections to 2022

http://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2008/older_workers/

Data extracted from "Labor

force projections to 2022: the labor force participation rate

continues to fall," published in

the December 2013 Monthly Labor Review.

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

Work Status- Percent Full and Part Time - Employed Age 65 and older - Unadjusted Annual – 1977- 2007 and 2009 - 2014

Part-time Full-time

Great R

ecession

– D

ec 200

7 – Ju

ne 20

09

http://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2008/older_workers/ Current Population Survey- Annual – 2009 – 2014 Unadjusted LNU02600097 and LNU02500097 extracted June 15, 2015

Employed age 65 and over Employed Part-time – (thousands) Employed Full time – (thousands)

Series Id: LNU02500097

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Series title: (unadj) Employed, usually work full time - 65 years and over

Labor force status: Employed full time (persons who usually work 35 hours or more)

Type of data: Number in thousands

Age: 65 years and over

Series Id: LNU02600097

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Series title: (unadj) Employed, usually work part time - 65 years and over

Labor force status: Employed part time (persons who usually work less than 35 hours)

Type of data: Number in thousands

Age: 65 years and over

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

-76

Au

g-7

7

Mar

-79

Oct

-80

May

-82

Dec

-83

Jul-

85

Feb

-87

Sep

-88

Ap

r-9

0

No

v-9

1

Jun

-93

Jan

-95

Au

g-9

6

Mar

-98

Oct

-99

May

-01

Dec

-02

Jul-

04

Feb

-06

Sep

-07

Ap

r-0

9

No

v-10

Jun

-12

Jan

-14

Canada- Employment Age 65 and older Full and Part-time Jan 1976 to May 2015

(thousands)

Canada Full-time employment (4) Both sexes 65 years and over

Canada Part-time employment (5) Both sexes 65 years and over

59% Fulltime

Extracted from Statistics Canada. Table 282-0001 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by sex and detailed age group, unadjusted for seasonality, monthly (accessed: June 18, 2015))

New study ranks Alzheimer’s as third-leading cause of death, after heart disease and cancer Washington Post

By Tara Bahrampour, Published: March 5, 2014

Contribution of Alzheimer disease to mortality in the United States

Bryan D. James, PhD, Sue E. Leurgans, PhD, Liesi E. Hebert, ScD, Paul A. Scherr, PhD, ScD, Kristine Yaffe, MD and David A. Bennett, MD

Published online before print March 5, 2014, doi: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000000240

Neurology 10.1212/WNL.0000000000000240

Alzheimer's

Alzheimer's

6

So, What’s Happening With Life Expectancy?

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Prehistoric times

Ancient Greece

Medieval England

Renaissance England

Canada 1831

1841

1851

1861

1871

1881

1891

1901

Life Expectancy at Birth

Source: attributed to The Urban Futures Institute as published in

“Planning for Retirement, Canadian Bankers Association.

Life Expectancy at Birth 1900-1902 US All Both Sexes: 49.24 Males: 47.88 Females: 50.70

Whites Both Sexes: 49.64 Males: 48.23 Females: 51.08

Blacks Both Sexes: 33.80 Males 32.54 Females: 35.04 National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 63, No. 7, November 6, 2014 Table 24 p. 54

Canada Males: 51.1 Females: 51.4 Office of the Chief Actuary, Canada Pension Plan: Mortality Study-Actuarial Study No. 7, July 2009, Table 1

And Today… If you retire at age 55 having worked for 30 years…

As a female, you will live nearly as many years longer as you worked.

If you are married at age 60…

There is a 50% probability that at least one of you will be alive at age 90

At age 65, having 35 years of work, your savings, SS (CP/OAS), and pension will have to support yourself for another 20 years

If you are 65 today, how many more years will you live? Estimated median age in selected countries 2010 -2050

Japan

South Korea

Germany

China

Brazil

Mexico

United States

37.9 43.8 Canada

Canada from Statistics Canada, Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories, Catalogue no. 91-520-X

7

In the US… 2056: The year in which, for the first time, the population 65 and

older would outnumber people younger than 18 in the U.S. Source: Population projections

http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2012.html

Fact It is astonishing to realize that more than half of all the

human beings who have ever lived beyond the age of 65 are alive today. [prologue xxix]

Aging: Concepts and Controversies 5th Edition

By Harry R. Moody

Published by Pine Forge Press [2006]

ISBN 1412915201, 9781412915205

The Truth — An Inconvenient Inevitability The developed world – not just BC or Canada—is facing

an “Age Tsunami”

a “Demographic Discontinuity”

A “Population Predicament”

Chose your catch phrase… the truth is the same:

A million people worldwide turn 60 every month

over the next 25 years, around 70 million people will retire in developed countries… …and will be replaced by just five million [OECD 2003 Aging Housing and Urban Development]

“70 or bust! Current plans to raise the retirement age are not bold enough”

PUT aside the cruise brochures and let the garden retain that natural look for a few more years. Demography and declining investment returns are conspiring to keep you at your desk far longer than you ever expected.

This painful truth is no longer news in the rich world, and many governments have started to deal with the ageing problem. They have announced increases in the official retirement age that attempt to hold down the costs of state pensions while encouraging workers to stay in their jobs or get on their bikes and look for new ones.

Unfortunately, the boldest plans look inadequate. Older people are going to have to stay economically active longer than governments currently envisage; and that is going to require not just governments, but also employers and workers, to behave differently.

Economist: April 7, 2011 print edition

“Sweden considers raising retirement age to 75”

Published 27 February 2013

http://www.euractiv.com/health/sweden-prime-minister-considers-news-518068

Swedes should be prepared to work until they are 75 and to change careers in the middle of their work life if they are to keep the welfare standards they expect, Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt said.

Reinfeldt, who leads a centre-right government, also said half of today's children in Sweden can expect to become 100 years old and there has to be a change in the way the Swedes view their work life.

53

So, what will your future hold? When will you Retire? Labour Force Exits vs. Life Expectancy and Official Retirement

75.0

67.9

66.5

65.5

65.3

64.9

64.3

64.1

63.9

63.9

63.2

63.1

62.9

62.3

62.2

61.9

61.9

61.3

61.3

61.0

61.0

60.9

60.8

60.3

59.5

58.5

58.3

58.2

57.9

57.7

54.5

50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86

Labour force exit rate Life expectancy at 65 Official

73.0

71.2

69.5

66.6

68.9

65.6

63.5

65.2

64.6

66.5

64.2

61.4

65.7

63.5

64.4

63.2

63.3

61.6

63.5

60.2

62.1

62.4

60.8

59.2

58.7

62.2

59.6

59.7

58.9

61.4

59.3

50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86

Labour force exit rate Life expectancy at 65 Official

Mexico

Korea

Japan

Portugal

Iceland

Ireland

Turkey

Switzerland

United States

New Zealand

Norway

Spain

Sweden

OECD Australia

United Kingdom

Canada Netherlands

Denmark

Finland

Germany

Greece

Italy

Luxembourg

France

Czech Republic

Belgium

Hungary

Austria

Poland

Slovak Republic

Mexico

Korea

Japan

Portugal

Iceland

Ireland

Turkey

Switzerland

United States

New Zealand

Norway

Spain

Sweden

OECD Australia

United Kingdom

Canada Netherlands

Denmark

Finland

Germany

Greece

Italy

Luxembourg

France

Czech Republic

Belgium

Hungary

Austria

Poland

Slovak Republic

Society at a Glance 2009: OECD

Social Indicators - OECD

Chapter 5. Self-sufficiency Indicators.

Version 1 - Last updated: 29-Apr-2009

Males Females

8

15% of Canadians and 13% of Americans plan on never fully retiring

2015

Why will you work?

•Money

(30% US 24% CDN)

•Mental Stimulation

(15% US 18% CDN)

•Keep Physically active

(22%US 21% CDN)

•Connect with others

(7%US 11% CDN)

•Have something

meaningful / valuable to

with your time

(21% US 23% CDN)

Semi-retired by choice…

2015

Gordon Waddell and A Kim Burton. Published by The Stationery Office, 2006.

ISBN 0-11-703694-3.

From the book by Gordon Waddell, A Kim Burton

M Frese & G Mohr 1987, “Prolonged Unemployment And Depression In Older Workers:

A Longitudinal Study Of Intervening Variables.” Soc Sci Med 25: 173-178

Re-employment in older workers can improve physical functioning and mental health.

Haynes SG, McMichael AJ, Tyroler HA. 1978. “Survival After Early

And Normal Retirement.” Journal of Gerontology 33: 269-278.

Mortality after early retirement is higher than would be expected in a corresponding working group: the only significant predictor is pre-retirement health status (i.e. a health selection effect). Taking all the data, no excess mortality was observed after normal retirement.

9

Morris JK, Cook DG, Shaper AG. 1992. “Non-employment And Changes

In Smoking, Drinking, And Body-weight.” BMJ304: 536-541

Men who remained continuously employed had the lowest mortality, even after adjusting for socio-economic variables, manual/non-manual work and health-related behaviour. Even men who retired for reasons other than illness and who appeared to be relatively advantaged and healthy had a significantly increased risk (RR 1.87). The effect was non-specific: the increased risk of mortality from cancer was similar to that from cardiovascular disease.

Continue…

Tsai SP, Wendt JK, Donnelly RP, de Jong G, Ahmed FS. 2005. “Age At Retirement And Long

Term Survival Of An Industrial Population: Prospective Cohort Study.”

BMJ doi: 10.1136/bmj.38586.448704.EO.

After adjusting for socioeconomic status, employees who retired early at 55 had greater mortality than those who retired at 65 — the mortality was about twice as high in the first 10 years after retirement. Early retirees who survived to 65 had higher post-65 mortality than those who had continued working. Mortality was similar in those who retired at 60 and 65. Mortality did not differ for the first 5 years after retirement at 60 compared with continuing work.

What does this mean? It looks like we will see more older people in our society, in

our organizations and in our labour force

What are we going to do to accommodate them?

And with more older workers, what are the costs likely to be?

Would it be fair to hire older workers but limit their rights to health benefits, pension benefits…?

How many “Years of Potential Life” do I have?

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

To

tal

Lif

e E

xp

ecta

ncy

Age

Total Life Expectancy by Age - US Mortality Tablesbased on US Social Security Online Life Table 2005

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html

Male

Female

1. Determine current age

2. Select Gender

3. Read Total life

Expectancy

Example: Total Life expectancy at age 30 Female: 81.03 (51.03 YPL)

Male: 76.6 (46.6 YPL)

How long was my life expectancy when I was born?

Sources: Adapted from BC Stats, Ministry of Technology, Innovation and Citizens' Services 1921-1946

:Longevity and Historical Life Tables, Dhruva Nagnur, Statistics Canada 1950-2013: BC Stats, Ministry of Technology, Innovation and Citizens' Services

http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/VitalStatistics.aspx as accessed Set 2, 2014

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1921

1936

1950

1953

1956

1959

196

2

196

5

196

8

1971

1974

1977

198

0

198

3

198

6

198

9

199

2

199

5

199

8

200

1

200

4

200

7

2010

2013

Male

Female

Note: Population data after 1970 adjusted for non-permanent residents and undercount. Figures prepared through the use of single year of age life table.

using deaths provided by Vital Statistics, Ministry of Health, and the average of consecutive years of population provided by Statistics Canada.

Deaths are on a Census Year period basis (July 1, year 1, to June 30, year 2).

Source population is date referenced July 1.

If I were 65 today, how long could I expect live?

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

1950

1953

1956

1959

196

2

196

5

196

8

1971

1974

1977

198

0

198

3

198

6

198

9

199

2

199

5

199

8

200

1

200

4

200

7

2010

2013

Male

Female

Source: Data from BC Stats, Ministry of Technology, Innovation and Citizens' Services

http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/VitalStatistics.aspx

as accessed Set 2, 2014 Note: Population data after 1970 adjusted for non-permanent residents and undercount.

Figures prepared through the use of single year of age life table. using deaths provided by Vital Statistics, Ministry of Health, and the

average of consecutive years of population provided by Statistics Canada.

Deaths are on a Census Year period basis (July 1, year 1, to June 30, year 2). Source population is date referenced July 1.

10

Life Tables Canadian Life BC Life Public Service

Pension Plan

Age Male Female Male Female Male Female

55 80.01 84.11 81.20 84.84 83.22 86.62

60 80.84 84.72 81.98 85.41 83.80 86.99

65 81.98 85.52 83.01 86.16 84.96 87.61

Source: PensionsBC BC Pension Corp.

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Population Pyramid

From pre-history to pre-modern times …and in some modern-day tribes…

Some Modern Pyramids

One child policy starts 1979

Cultural Revolution/Gang of Four 1966-76

How are projections done? Cohort Component methods are commonly used (among

others) Start with the male/female population by age (usually five year

groups) Look at the age-specific survival rates by gender and age category Apply the fertility rates for the women and the gender ratios at

birth to get the number of new males and females to add Add the expected births for each gender to the top of the list, move

the survivors down one age category and repeat

Variations include ethnicity, religion, region, adjustments for immigration, emigration, (and in-migration, out-migration) on a state or provincial basis), parity rates…

95 -99

90 - 94

85 - 89

80 - 84

75 - 79

70 - 74

65 - 69

60 - 64

55 - 59

50 - 54

45 - 49

40 - 44

35 - 39

30 - 34

25 - 29

20 - 24

15 - 19

10 - 14

5 - 9

0 - 4

From 2015 to 2020

•Subtract deaths

•Subtract Emigration

•Add Immigration

•Then shift categories

up one age grouping

????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

95 -99

90 - 94

85 - 89

80 - 84

75 - 79

70 - 74

65 - 69

60 - 64

55 - 59

50 - 54

45 - 49

40 - 44

35 - 39

30 - 34

25 - 29

20 - 24

15 - 19

10 - 14

5 - 9

0 - 4

•Apply live birth rate

to each age group

•Then apply the

Gender Ratio

0 - 4

Males Females

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Switzerland

Germany

Japan

Denmark

Netherlands

Sweden

Norway

British Columbia

Finland

Australia

Canada

Washington state

New Zealand

United Kingdom

United States

Puerto Rico

Panama

Live Births per 1000 15 < 20 Year Old Girls /Women http://www.doh.wa.gov/DataandStatisticalReports/VitalStatisticsData/BirthData/BirthTablesbyTopic

http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/VitalStatistics.aspx http://wdi.worldbank.org/table/2.17

11

How many Males to Females? Roughly 105 to 107 males for

every 100 females at birth is normal males have higher mortality in

childhood

Women have higher mortality in child birth but live longer

One would expect the same ratio regardless of birth order

Country M/F ratio at

birth

Canada 106

United States 105

Hong Kong 113

China 111

India 112

Viet Nam

112 Source: CIA World Factbook at

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2018.html

as accessed Sept 3, 2014

The war on baby girls

Gendercide Killed, aborted or neglected, at least 100m girls have disappeared—and the number is rising Mar 4th 2010 | The Economist

China - Sex Ratio at Birth by birth order (parity), 1982-2005

105.6 105.2 109.4 109.9 107.1

151.9

160.3 161.4

108.4

143.2

156.4

141.8

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

1 2 3 4

198220002005

http://www.unfpa.org/gender/docs/studies/china.pdf

After: Shuzhuo Li, “Imbalanced Sex Ratio at Birth and Comprehensive

Intervention in China”, 4th Asia Pacific Conference on Reproductive and

Sexual Health and Rights, 29-31 October 2007; HYDERABAD, INDIA

What do you do with millions of extra males?

“…at their current levels, the number of single men would increase sharply from almost 19 million to 30.9 million between 2010 and 2040.

The percentage of single men would increase from 11.4 percent in 2010 to 25.5 percent by 2060.

In 2060, more than one quarter of men of marriageable age (approximately 24 million) would remain single and be unable to find partners.”

Tucker, C., & Van Hook, J. (2013). Surplus Chinese Men: Demographic Determinants of the

Sex Ratio at Marriageable Ages in China. Population and Development Review, 39(2),

10.1111/j.1728–4457.2013.00589.x. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00589.x

Canada Population Projection BC Population 2015 and 2035

Source: Based on extract from BC Stats http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/PopulationProjections.aspx as accessed Sept 2, 2014

12

Dependency Demographic Age Dependency Ratio: the

ratio of the combined youth population (0 to 19 years) and senior population (65 or older) to the working-age population (20 to 64

years).

Economic dependency: the number of people in the total

population (including the Armed Forces and children) who

are not in the labor force, per hundred of those who are.

US Total Dependency Ratio

https://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/p25-1138.pdf

US Population Projection

87

California Population Projections Index of Change in Population

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Ind

ex

Indexed Projected Change in Population Groups (M&F, All Races)- California 2015-2060

0-19

20-64

65-84

85 and older

13

White

Hispanic

Black

2+

Asian

Developed from California Department of Finance,

P3: Population Projections (Release Dec 2014)

White

Hispanic

Black

2+

Asian

Developed from California Department of Finance,

P3: Population Projections (Release Dec 2014)

Ohio 2015-2040

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population (Count)

Ohio 2015

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population (Count)

Ohio 2020

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population (Count)

Ohio 2025

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population (Count)

Ohio 2030

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population (Count)

Ohio 2035

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population (Count)

Ohio 2040

500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Ohio 2015

Data extracted from: Ohio Services Development Agency http://development.ohio.gov/files/research/P6001.pdf

Maryland 2015-2040

Developed from 2014 Total Population Projections for Non-Hispanic White and All Other by

Age, Sex and Race (7/8/14) Prepared by Maryland Department of Planning

http://www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/S3_Projection.shtml

Index of Change in Maryland Population

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Ind

ex

Indexed Projected Change in Population Groups (M&F, All Races)- Maryland 2015-2040

0-19

20-64

65-84

85 and older

Developed from 2014 Total Population Projections for Non-Hispanic White and All Other by Age,

Sex and Race (7/8/14) Prepared by Maryland Department of Planning

http://www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/S3_Projection.shtml

Kentucky

14

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Ind

ex

Indexed Projected Change in Population Groups (M&F, All Races)- Kentucky 2015-

2060

0-19

20-64

65-84

85 and older

Maine Population Projections

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032

Ind

ex

Indexed Projected Change in Population Groups (M&F, All Races)- Maine 2012-2032

0-19

20-64

65-84

85 and older

Population Pyramid Points to Ponder Are the rights and needs of older people being

addressed in our organizations, institutions and tribunals?

How are we going to address the rights and needs of women, particularly older women, as they increase in numbers?

Who will fill the roles in the economy as the population pyramids in western countries shift?

Workplaces

Demographics:

The Growth and

Structure

of Population

Key commodities and services

required

Employment opportunities

available to workers

Demand

for

Workers

Occupations

required

Rates of Immigration

Work Force

Participation Rates

Birth Rate

Supply of

Workers

Demand for

private

consumption

Demand/Need for public expenditures

(especially Health care and Education)

Unemployed

workers

Employed

workers

[Undocumented]

Illegal immigrant workers

[Documented]

Temporary Foreign workers

Immigration? Possible source but…

We are competing with every other industrialized nations for the same skilled immigrants

New immigrants bring new challenges and may be more vulnerable to workplace injury, stress and adjustment

15

Canada Source: "Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Facts and Figures". Citizenship and Immigration Canada. 2013. Retrieved Dec 7, 2013.

Canada

Canadian Immigration

China 13%

Philippines 13%

India 11%

Pakistan 4%

USA 4%

USA

US Immigration

Mexico 14%

China 7%

India 7%

Philippines 5%

Dominican Rep 4%

US Source: U.S. Lawful Permanent Residents: 2013" (PDF). Annual Flow Report, May 2014

Australian Immigration

New Zealand 18%

India 12%

China 12%

UK 4%

Philippines 4%

Australia Sourcehttps://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/02key.htm /

Australia

UK

UK Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/immigration-statistics-april-to-june-2014/immigration-statistics-april-to-june-2014#settlement-1

UK Immigration

India 17%

Pakistan 12%

Nigeria 5%

China 5%

South Africa 4%

Immigration Trends: Canada(2012), US(2013), Australia(2012/13), UK(Q2 2014)

Temporary Foreign Workers? A growing source but…

We are competing with every other industrialized nations for the same skilled immigrants

Temporary foreign workers bring new challenges and may be more vulnerable to workplace injury, stress and adjustment

Increasing Participation Rates? Possible sources

Retaining people (particularly younger people) in our jurisdiction and labour force

Increasing participation rates of women

Accommodating injured workers and disabled people who would otherwise leave or be outside the labour force

Older workers who would otherwise retire

Jurisdictional

labour

Force

Births 15+

years ago

Retired, disabled,

students and others

Not In labour Force Deaths while

in labour force

Immigration of

Workers

Emigration of

Workers

Immigration

-Emigration

= Net Gain or Loss.

Back to Workers’ Compensation And why all of this is important to WorkSafeBC

How Demographic change has impacted our system already

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Average age (2013):

Males 41

Females 43

Average Age of Injured Worker in B.C. (Time-loss injuries only)

16

http://pwhr.sites.olt.ubc.ca/files/2012/02/Annual-Report-1011.pdf

Source: http://www.ncci.com/Documents/AIS-2012-Harry-Shuford_AgingWorkforce.pdf

Health expenditures by Governments increase with age…

Source: Extracted from CIHI, Table E 1.14 Estimate of Total Provincial/Territorial Government Health Expenditures by Age and Sex, National Health

Expenditure Trends, 1975 to 2013 as accessed at https://secure.cihi.ca/estore/productFamily.htm?locale=en&pf=PFC2400 on Sept 2, 2014

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

<1

1-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40

-44

45-

49

50-5

4

55-5

9

60

-64

65-

69

70-7

4

75-7

9

80

-84

85-

89

90

+

Female

Male

Average Days Paid by Age Groups

0

20

40

60

80

100

15-19

20-24

24-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

Age Groups

Ave

rage

Day

s Pa

id

n= 500k time-loss claims

Method:

1) claims divided into buckets by age at injury

2) Days paid per claim totaled and divided by

number of claims in bucket

You’ve seen the truth… (and just some of the questions)…

What will these demographic changes mean in our lives, our society, our businesses and tribunals?

What impacts is this having on Workers’ Compensation?

You need to think about the consequences Canadian and US societies are getting older

The evolving demographic picture will mean

More older workers in the workforce

More working longer in the same job

More working full time longer

More workers with age-related conditions, impairments and disabilities will be present in our communities and workplaces

17

And… Dementia, Alzheimer's, depression will

Become more prevalent

Require direct and indirect departures from the labour force

Increase demands for health care services

Normal aging for an increasing proportion of the population will

Increase demand for physiotherapy, medication, home care, and hospital services

Drive up costs for wages, recruitment, retention

Result in increased competition for scarce resources

Further… We will see more people from outside Canada and the US

come to live permanently and temporarily to fill many occupations…

and see other countries recruiting young North Americans to move to their countries.

Older workers will become more prevalent in the labour force

More workers will be vulnerable to work-related injury due to “newness” to the job (major risk factor for injury)

Language and culture (communications issues)

Economics (need to work longer hours, years, multiple jobs)

Precariousness of employment (part-time contingent employment)

Some final thoughts Be sensitive…

Take care of your health…

Be very nice to your children…

Be very generous to your retirement savings… AASCIF Convention 2015: Bridging the Future

San Francisco July 6

Terrance J. Bogyo

Independent Researcher | Speaker | Consultant