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Who is in the FPSO Space Functional Spec vs Prescriptive Spec Hmmm … so where is the Risk I see .. So what happened What is coming up Parting Thoughts Random Thoughts by Puneet Sharma

Puneet Sharma (MODEC) - FPSO Space - Some Random Thoughts Part 2

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  • Who is in the FPSO Space Functional Spec vs Prescriptive Spec Hmmm so where is the Risk I see .. So what happened What is coming up Parting Thoughts

    Random Thoughts by Puneet Sharma

  • FPSO Market Share

    Source: 2013 FPSOs of the World wall chart by Offshore Magazine.

    Source: 2009 FPSOs of the World wall chart by Offshore Magazine.

    PresenterPresentation NotesThe wall-chart(s) are not

  • Leased FPSO Space (another view)

    Note: Courtesy of SBM Offshore

    Roughly 5+ million bbl/day flows through Leased FPSOs

  • FPSO /FSO Market Share

    Source: Contractor Materials and IMA Report (July 2013)

    Existing Installed Units (FPSO & FSO Only) Charters for top 3 companies: ~74 (60+%) Projects for top 3 companies: ~98 (40+%)

    Bumi Armada BWO* MODEC SBM Confirmed Orders to Date 6 32 36 41 Engineering Services Only 0 1 0 0 FPSO EPCI 0 3 8 5 FSO EPCI 0 6 5 2

    Total Engineering or EPCI Projects 0 10 13 7 Decommissioned 0 0 2 3 Sold 0 4 3 5 Under Construction 1 1 4 6 Currently on Charter 5 14 14 13

    Total Current Confirmed Charters 6 14 18 18 Total Units Chartered to Date 6 18 23 26

    Re-Deployments 0 4 1 8 Total Charter Contracts 6 22 24 34

    FPSO /FSO Conversions 6 27 30 30 FPSO /FSO New-Build 0 0 5 3 FPSO O&M (not Chartered) 0 2 4 1 Total Installed Lease L & I FPSO 209 157 97 73 FSO 100 90 52 47 Gas 34 18 22 8 Other 12 8 1 1 Semi 50 43 4 3 Spar 23 19 1 0 TLP 28 23 0 0 Total 456 358 177 132

  • Who is in the FPSO Space Functional Spec vs Prescriptive Spec Hmmm so where is the Risk I see .. So what happened What is coming up Parting Thoughts

    Random Thoughts

  • Functional vs. Prescriptive - Bid Submissions

    PresenterPresentation NotesA proposal based on a functional ITT spec requires 3-4 months for the lease operators to develop a lump-sum commercial estimate

    A proposal based on a prescriptive ITT spec requires between 6-9 months for the lease operators to develop a lump-sum commercial estimate

  • FPSO proposal development

    FPSO Sizes Oil: 80 160 kbopd Gas: 100 300 mmscfd Water: 100 300 kbwpd

    Cost Costs adjusted to 2013 $ Exclusive of GAOH and Profit

    Schedule

    Note: Average of 20 FPSO proposals

  • Functional vs. Prescriptive EPCI Schedule (Estimate)

    PresenterPresentation NotesThis is a comparison of a prescriptive versus functional specification for two recent projects where a VLCC hull was to be converted to a FPSO.

    It shows clearly the advantage of modifying an existing facilities design to suit a functional specification. The advantage is realized not just by the contractor but also by the sub-contractors. Because the sub-contractors will have worked on a similar modules /vessel in the past, they can better gauge the challenges before they occur and thus mitigate schedule and commercial risk better.

    MODEC utilized similar vessels for three consecutive projects and similar facilities designs for two of the projects the Fluminense and the Baobab for two discreetly different clients Shell and CNR. As shown earlier the Fluminense had an EPCI schedule of roughly 24 months and the Baobab had an EPCI schedule of roughly 21 months.

    If the same basic facilities design could be used for another project along with a similar vessel, then it is likely that schedule could either be the same as or less than the Baobab.

  • Functional vs Perspective Performance (Actuals)

    A B Major Parameters Prescriptive Functional Client A B Water Depth (meters) 2,000 1,100 Size /Type DH VL + Ext Turret SH VL + Ext Turret Purchase or Lease Purchase Lease->Purchase Process Conditions

    Oil /Liq. Rate (kbopd) 150 /210 120 /160 Water Injection (kbwpd) 300 232 Gas Handling (mmscfd) 245 ( 2 x 65%) 160 (2 x 100%)

    CO2 (%) N/A N/A H2S Handling (ppm) 1.7 (NACE) 0 (Non-NACE)

    Topsides Arrival (bar) 20 34 Gas Lift Take Off (bar) 197 374 Gas Reinjection (bar) 354 374

    Gas Export (bar) 354 204 Water Injection (bar) 197 340

    Key Dates Discovery to First-Oil 100 months 42 months ITT to First Oil 78 months 32 months

    LOI to First-Oil 54 months 30 months

  • FPSO A & B

    -

    20,000

    40,000

    60,000

    80,000

    100,000

    120,000

    140,000

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

    Oil Production Rate & FPSO B Uptime

    B-Uptime Availability (Oil):B-Oil Production (Avg/day)A-Oil Production (Avg/day)

    PresenterPresentation NotesProject A

    Achieves faster ramp-up of Oil system

    Project A & B

    Have similar ramp-up uptime in the first year of operation for the Oil systemBoth projects have similar delay in Gas Reinjection (well delays, compressor commissioning, etc)

    Project B

    Lifts 51 million barrels lifted between first-oil of A vs B@ $100 /bbl => $5.1 billion@ 8% interest, B earns an additional $400+ in interest on the earlier revenue

  • So what is the value of a Prescriptive Spec Tender?

    PresenterPresentation NotesA proposal based on a functional ITT spec requires 3-4 months for the lease operators to develop a lump-sum commercial estimate

    A proposal based on a prescriptive ITT spec requires between 6-9 months for the lease operators to develop a lump-sum commercial estimate

  • Who is in the FPSO Space Functional Spec vs Prescriptive Spec Hmmm so where is the Risk I see .. So what happened What is coming up Parting Thoughts

    Random Thoughts

  • Raw Material (David to Update)

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    Price Trend - Carbon Steel

    -Beam 5.58200100 (Tokyo), adjusted by JPY/USD yearly average rates

    USD

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    Price Trend - Stainless Steel

    SUS304, 18-8, 2.0mm (Tokyo), adjusted by JPY/USD yearly average rates

    USD

    0.00

    1.00

    2.00

    3.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    Price Trend - Copper

    Copper (Tokyo), adjusted by JPY/USD yearly average rates

    USD

  • Currency Fluctuation against Bid Basis

    PresenterPresentation NotesThe bid basis for most contracts is USD. The USD has continued to weaken against most currencies except the Yen and the Real. Meaning that the outlook remains that EPCI prices are going to continue to go up and (lease) day-rates will as well.

  • Impact of Variance by Cost Block

    Highest impact to EPCI cost comes from: Equipment Fabrication Pre-Commissioning, Hook-Up and Commissioning Project Management Labor and related

  • Volatility by Cost Block Highest volatility to EPCI cost comes from:

    Offshore Installation Pre-Commissioning, Hook-Up and Commissioning Pre-Operations Storage, Handling and Freight

  • Who is in the FPSO Space Functional Spec vs Prescriptive Spec Hmmm so where is the Risk I see .. So what happened What is coming up Parting Thoughts

    Random Thoughts

  • TSR Peer Group Ranking 2008 1H2012 Compound Annual Growth Rate (%CAGR)

    -24.9% -14.1% -13.9%

    -7.2% -6.8%

    -5.0% -3.9% -3.9% -2.7%

    1.9% 2.0% 2.2%

    6.0% 9.5%

    14.3% 14.6%

    16.0% 16.5% 16.9%

    20.3% 22.2%

    24.4% 31.1%

    -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%

    BW OFFSHORESBM OFFSHORE

    HELIX ENERGY SOLUTIONSTEEKAY

    AP MOELLER-MAERSKMODEC

    JACOBS ENGINEERING GROUPMCDERMOTT INTLAKER SOLUTIONS

    SUBSEA 7KBR

    FOSTER WHEELERCHICAGO BRIDGE & IRON

    FUGRO NV-CVATECHNIP

    WORLEY PARSONSAMEC

    SAIPEMWOOD GROUP (JOHN)

    OIL STATES INTERNATIONALOCEANEERING INTL

    FMC TECHNOLOGIESPETROFAC

    SBM OFFSHORE BW OFFSHORE

    TEEKAY AP MOELLER-MAERSK

    MODEC

    Note: Courtesy of SBM Offshore

    PresenterPresentation NotesInvestopedia explains 'Compound Annual Growth Rate - CAGR'CAGR isn't the actual return in reality. It's an imaginary number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it grew at a steady rate. You can think of CAGR as a way to smooth out the returns.Don't worry if this concept is still fuzzy to you - CAGR is one of those terms best defined by example. Suppose you invested $10,000 in a portfolio on Jan 1, 2005. Let's say by Jan 1, 2006, your portfolio had grown to $13,000, then $14,000 by 2007, and finally ended up at $19,500 by 2008.Your CAGR would be the ratio of your ending value to beginning value ($19,500 / $10,000 = 1.95) raised to the power of 1/3 (since 1/# of years = 1/3), then subtracting 1 from the resulting number:1.95 raised to 1/3 power = 1.2493. (This could be written as 1.95^0.3333).1.2493 - 1 = 0.2493Another way of writing 0.2493 is 24.93%.Thus, your CAGR for your three-year investment is equal to 24.93%, representing the smoothed annualized gain you earned over your investment time horizon.

  • Return on Total Assets

    Note: Courtesy of SBM Offshore

  • Who is in the FPSO Space Some Recent Performance Where is the Risk What is happening to the FPSO group What is coming up What should you do

    Random Thoughts

  • Global Drill Rig Supply & Demand

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    Africa Asia Australia Europe Mid-East N. America S. America Non-Utilized

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    Rigs in Region Utilization 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Africa 54 53 65 69 79 70% 87% 86% 86% 89% Asia 133 151 154 155 177 86% 79% 78% 80% 82% Australia 14 11 12 12 12 100% 100% 75% 100% 100% Europe 97 100 106 108 109 72% 81% 87% 85% 86% Mid-East 106 112 108 111 123 73% 74% 74% 81% 80% N. America 112 116 114 139 141 71% 66% 75% 77% 82% S. America 65 77 94 95 93 88% 87% 82% 93% 93% Total 581 620 653 689 734

    PresenterPresentation NotesThe highest increase in rig activity (on a percentage increase basis) is Africa. This year though there was a dramatic increase in Asia and North America as well. With the limited infrastructure in Asia and Africa, demand for floaters should go up.

  • Global demand for Floaters (Five-year look-ahead) Number of Projects (Production Start)

    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    Firm Projects

    BRAZIL 3 1 3 2 1 0 0 AFRICA 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 GOM 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 ASIA/ OCEANIA 10 1 1 1 0 0 0 North Sea 2 2 1 2 0 0 0

    Sub TOTAL 17 5 5 7 1 0 0Prospective Projects

    BRAZIL 1 1 5 2 1 0 0 AFRICA 1 1 7 5 4 1 1 GOM 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 ASIA/ OCEANIA 1 5 10 8 4 3 3 North Sea 1 1 2 2 1 0 0

    Sub TOTAL 5 10 25 17 11 4 4

    TOTAL + 22 15 30 24 12 4 4Type Unit Field Region

    LocationBlock No in GOM Unit Name

    Lease/ Own Operator Floater Owner

    Storage(000s bbl) Install Date

    Water Depth(meters)

    Oil Process(B/D)

    Gas Handling(MMCF/D) Mooring

    New/ Conv Region

    Current Lease End

    Lease Option

    EndStatu

    s2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    FPSO CLOV AFRICA Angola CLOV FPSO Own Total Total 1,780 2014 1290 160,000 230 Spread NEW AFRICA O 1 Firm Projects

    FPSO Ngoma AFRICA Angola N'Goma Lease ENI SBM/Sonangol 1,508 2014-2H 1320 100,000 100 Ext. Turret CONV AFRICA 2026 O 1 BRAZIL 3 1 3 2 1 0 0FPSO

    EginaOML 130 AFRICA Nigeria Egina FPSO Own Total Total 2,300 2017 1600 200,000 360 Spread NEW AFRICA O 1 AFRICA 2 1 0 1 0 0 0

    FSO Bouri AFRICA Libya Gaza FSU Own ENI/LNOC ENI/LNOC 1,500 2015-06 170 none none Ext. Turret NEW Medit O 1 GOM 0 0 0 1 0 0 0AFRICA TOTAL

    2 1 0 1 0 0 0 ASIA/ OCEANIA 10 1 1 1 0 0 0 North Sea 2 2 1 2 0 0 0

    FLNG Prelude ASIA OCEANIA Australia Prelude Own Shell Shell220,000 m3

    LNG 2017 2001.3 mtpa

    condensate 3.6 mtpa

    LNG Int. Turret NEW AUST/NZ O 1 Sub TOTAL 17 5 5 7 1 0 0FLNG Kanowit ASIA OCEANIA Malaysia Kanowit LNG Own Petronas Petronas 177,000 m3 2015 80 none

    1.2 mtpa LNG NEW SEA O 1 Prospective Projects

    FPSO Balnaves ASIA OCEANIA Australia Armada Claire Lease Apache Bumi Armada 800 2014-Q1 150 80,000 Ext. Turret CONV AUST/NZ 2018 2022 O 1 BRAZIL 1 1 5 2 1 0 0FPSO Ichthys ASIA OCEANIA Australia Ichthys FPSO Own Inpex Inpex 1,200 2016 250

    85,000 condensate n.a. Int. Turret NEW AUST/NZ O 1 AFRICA 1 1 7 5 4 1 1

    FPSO Bukit Tua ASIA OCEANIA Malaysia Bukit Tua FPSO Lease Petronas M3nergy 600 2014 100 50,000 Spread Conv SEA 2019 2021 O 1 GOM 2 2 1 1 0 0 0FPSO Cendor ASIA OCEANIA Malaysia Cendor Phase 2 FPSO Lease Petrofac MISC 745 2014 70 35,000 Spread Conv SEA 2014 O 1 ASIA/ OCEANIA 1 5 10 8 4 3 3FPSO Dong Do ASIA OCEANIA Vietnam Dong Do FPSO Lease

    Lam Son JV (Petro Vietnam/ Petronas) PTSC/Yinson 650 2014 68 18,000 Ext. Turret CONV SEA 2021 2024 O 1 North Sea 1 1 2 2 1 0 0

    FPSO Enping 24-2 ASIA OCEANIA China Enping FPSO Own CNOOC CNOOC 1,000 2014 87 82,000 Int. Turret NEW SEACH O 1 Sub TOTAL 5 10 25 17 11 4 4

    FPSO Cluster 7 ASIA OCEANIA India Cluster 7 FPSO Lease ONGC Bumi Armada 510 2014 85 30,000 63 Int. Turret CONV SWA/ME 2023 2030 O 1 TOTAL + 22 15 30 24 12 4 4

    FSO Banyu Urip ASIA OCEANIA Indonesia Banyu Urip FSO Own ExxonMobil ExxonMobil 1,700 2014 33 none none Tower Yoke CONV SEA O 1

    FSO Belida ASIA OCEANIA Indonesia Multi Echo Lease ConocoPhillips Multiline 600 2014 80 none none Ext. Turret CONV SEA 2019 2023 O 1

    FSO Bualuang ASIA OCEANIA Thailand Bualuang FSO LeaseSalamander Energy Teekay 500 2014-07 45 none none Ext. Turret CONV SEA 2024 2029 O 1

    FSO Manora ASIA OCEANIA Thailand Manora FSO Lease Pearl Energy TPOT 650 2014 44 none none Calm Buoy CONV SEA 2021 O 1 OCEANIA TOTAL 10 1 1 1 0 0 0

    FPSO Entorno de Iara BRAZIL Brazil P 73 Own Petrobras Petrobras 1,600 2018 1500 150,000 200 NEW BRAZ O 1

    FPSO Franco 1 BRAZIL Brazil P 74 Own Petrobras Petrobras 1,600 2016-2H 2190 150,000 250 CONV BRAZ O 1

    FPSO Franco NW BRAZIL Brazil P 77 Own Petrobras Petrobras 1,600 2017 2190 150,000 250 CONV BRAZ O 1

    FPSO Franco Sul BRAZIL Brazil P 76 Own Petrobras Petrobras 1,600 2017-1H 2190 150,000 250 CONV BRAZ O 1

    FPSO Franco SW BRAZIL Brazil P 75 Own Petrobras Petrobras 1,600 2016 2190 150,000 250 CONV BRAZ O1

    FPSO Iara Horst BRAZIL Brazil P 70 Own Petrobras Petrobras 1,600 2017 1500 150,000 200 NEW BRAZ O 1

    FPSO Iara NW BRAZIL Brazil P 71 Own Petrobras Petrobras 1,600 2018 1500 150,000 200 NEW BRAZ O 1

    FPSO Iracema Norte BRAZIL BrazilFPSO Cidade de Itaguai MV26 Lease Petrobras Modec/Schahin 1,600 2015-12 2240 150,000 280 Spread CONV BRAZ 2035-12 O 1

    FPSOIracema Sul (formerly Cernambi Sul) BRAZIL Brazil

    Cidade de Mangaratiba MV24 Lease Petrobras Modec/Schahin 1,600 2014 2300 150,000 280 24 pt Spread CONV BRAZ 2034 O 1

    FPSO Lula Alto BRAZIL Brazil Cidade de Maric Lease Petrobras SBM 1,600 2015 2300 150,000 210 Spread CONV BRAZ 2035 O 1

    FPSO Lula Central BRAZIL Brazil Cidade de Saquarema Lease Petrobras SBM 1,600 2016 2300 150,000 210 Spread CONV BRAZ 2036 O 1

    FPSO Lula Ext. Sul BRAZIL Brazil P 68 Own Petrobras Petrobras 1,600 2017 1500 150,000 200 NEW BRAZ O 1

    FPSO Lula Norte BRAZIL Brazil P 67 Own Petrobras Petrobras 1,600 2016 1500 150,000 200 NEW BRAZ O 1

    FPSO Lula Oeste BRAZIL Brazil P 69 Own Petrobras Petrobras 1,600 2017 1500 150,000 200 NEW BRAZ O 1

    FPSO Lula Sul BRAZIL Brazil P 66 Own Petrobras Petrobras 1,600 2016 1500 150,000 200 NEW BRAZ O 1

    FPSO NE de Tupi BRAZIL Brazil P 72 Own Petrobras Petrobras 1,600 2018 1500 150,000 200 NEW BRAZ O 1

    FPSO Roncador BRAZIL Brazil P 62 Own Petrobras Petrobras 1,800 2014 1600 180,000 210 Spread CONV BRAZ O 1

    FPSOSapinhoa North (ex-Guara-Norte) BRAZIL Brazil Cidade de Ilhabela Lease Petrobras

    SBM/Queiroz Galvao/Mitsubishi 1,600 2014 2300 150,000 210 Spread CONV BRAZ 2034 O 1

    BRAZIL TOTAL 3 1 3 2 1 0 0

    FPSOStones WR 508 GOM GOM Stones FPSO Lease Shell SBM 800 2017 2896 60,000 15 Int. Disc. Turret Conv GOM 2027 2037 O 1

    GOM TOTAL 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

    FPSO Knarr (ex-Jordbaer) North Sea North Sea Knarr FPSO Lease BG Teekay 828 2014 410 63,000 Int. Turret NEW NE 2024 2034 O 1

    FPSO Schiehallion / Loyal North Sea North Sea Quad 204 Own BP BP 1,080 2016 424 130,000 125 Int. Turret NEW NE O 1

    FPSO Goliat North Sea Norway Goliat FPSO Own ENI ENI 1,000 2014-Q3 340 110,000 135 Spread NEW NE O 1

    FPSO Alma North Sea U.K. Enquest Producer Own EnQuest EnQuest 600 2013-Q4 150 57,000 n.a. Int. Turret CONV NE O 1

    FPSO Rosebank North Sea U.K. Rosebank FPSO Own Chevron Chevron 1,050 2017 1115 100,000 190 Int. Turret NEW NE O 1

    FPSO Western Isles North Sea U.K. Western Isles FPSO Own Dana Dana 400 2015 165 40,000 Spread NEW NE O 1

    FSO Gina Krog North Sea Norway Randgrid Lease Statoil Teekay 825 2017 110 none none Int. Disc. Turret CONV NE 2020 2032 O 1

    FSO Heidrun North Sea Norway Heidrun FSU Own Statoil Statoil 2015-1H 350 none none Int. Turret NEW NE O 1North Sea TOTAL 2 2 1 2 0 0 0

    Floating Production and Storage Systems On Order (O), Available (A) and Installed (I)(as of 19 July 2013)

  • Global Demand (18 month look-ahead)

    Data presented on this slide is confidential to MODEC

    PresenterPresentation NotesBased the 18 month look ahead suggests a mixture of conversion and new-builds favoring conversions. The new-builds all will likely be purpose-built units for Large operators. The conversions are mixed for small to medium sized IOCs and a few for large IOC.

  • Back-Log

    MODEC

    Recently Completed PB Pilot 2 & OSX-3

    2011-2012 Award (ongoing) PB FPSO 5 & 6

    2013 Awards Tullow TEN PB FPSO 9

    SBM

    Recently Completed PB FPSO 3 & OSX-2

    2011-2012 Awards PB FPSO 4

    2013 Awards ENI 15-06 (West-Hub) PB FPSO 7 & 8 Shell Stones

  • Who is in the FPSO Space Functional Spec vs Prescriptive Spec Hmmm so where is the Risk I see .. So what happened What is coming up Parting Thoughts

    Random Thoughts

  • Buy or Lease

    Basis: After the financial crash of 2008, lenders are more conservative Relationship with Lenders is critical Cash is King and is limited in the markets

    Problem: Should I Lease a FPSO or Buy One

    Solution 1. I have lots of free cash, Buy 2. I dont have free cash, Lease 3. I am undecided, Lease with Option to Purchase

  • Risk Allocation

    Basis: FPSO Contractors are under-performing in the market

    Problem: Industrial events and project-over-runs have made the experienced

    community more aware of the risks and more risk averse

    Solution: 1. Continue with business as usual

    1. Lump-Sum and bleed the contractors 2. Use open-book approach during FEED /Design Competition

    1. Collaboratively evaluate the risks /rewards and apportion the commercial, contractual, technical and HSE risks

  • Operator Specs vs Contractor Specs

    Basis: Large/Medium IOCs have their own Specifications Experienced Operators have their own Specifications

    Problem: Which Specs should I go with

    Solution 1. Cost and Schedule are not as important, My Company Specs are

    written in Stone Go with Operator Specs 2. I need it fast, I need it now Go with Contractor Specs 3. Price and schedule are important but so are my holy cows

    Contractor specs with a bolt-on for the must haves 1. Con: Likely longer FEED and no schedule improvement 2. Pro: Possibly lower Capex

  • If I go with Contractor Spec, what should I focus on

    Add'l Initial Investment

    (50)

    (30)

    (10)

    10

    30

    50

    70

    90

    0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

    EPCI vs. O&M Total Cost of Ownership

    Case 1 - Annual Costs w/o Investm't Case 2 - Annual Costs w/ Investm't Annual Saving

    PresenterPresentation NotesProvide Examples:

    Seawater Injection Pumps

    Compressors

  • Resource Demand is High, Supply Low

    Basis: Demand for FPSOs is increasing or is it?

    What will Shale Oil Supply do to Deep-Water Demand? Contractors are getting busy

    Problem: Resources Are limited - Over-working limited resources could result

    in greater errors and may result in an HSEQ event

    Solution: 1. Poach from others 2. Hire from outside Industry (and Train) 3. Contractors /Clients create Integrated Project Team

  • Who do I Use

    Basis: Lots of Contractors Out there

    Problem: Who do I go with

    Solution - Select bidders based on Project Cost & Complexity, then 1. Closed Design Competition and go with Lowest Normalized Price

    1. Cons: Exclusions and Provisos 2. Pros: Typical Industry Practice

    2. Open-book FEED 1. Pick a supplier(s) with a compatible Culture 2. Risked cost estimate and ROE /IRR

  • Schedule is King

    Revenue ($ billion)

    1st oil

    End of field life

    1st drilling

    Start EPC

    CAPEX OPEX

    Project Progression (yrs)

    Net Present Value (NPV)

    10 20 30

    10

    5

    Primary Secondary Tertiary

    Random Thoughtsby Puneet SharmaFPSO Market ShareLeased FPSO Space (another view)FPSO /FSO Market ShareRandom ThoughtsFunctional vs. Prescriptive - Bid SubmissionsFPSO proposal developmentFunctional vs. Prescriptive EPCI Schedule (Estimate)Functional vs Perspective Performance (Actuals)FPSO A & BSo what is the value of a Prescriptive Spec Tender?Random ThoughtsRaw Material (David to Update)Currency Fluctuation against Bid BasisImpact of Variance by Cost BlockVolatility by Cost BlockRandom ThoughtsTSR Peer Group Ranking 2008 1H2012Compound Annual Growth Rate (%CAGR)Return on Total AssetsRandom ThoughtsGlobal Drill Rig Supply & DemandGlobal demand for Floaters (Five-year look-ahead)Global Demand (18 month look-ahead)Back-LogRandom ThoughtsBuy or LeaseRisk AllocationOperator Specs vs Contractor SpecsIf I go with Contractor Spec, what should I focus onResource Demand is High, Supply LowWho do I UseSchedule is King