Pulses Monthly Overview by NCDEX - May 2011

8/6/2019 Pulses Monthly Overview by NCDEX - May 2011

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Figure 2: Inflation in Pulses

Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, GOI

Pulses Monthly OvervieMay 2011

Neha SinhaEconomistKnowledge Management, [email protected]+91 22 66406578

Figure 1: Production of Pulses (million MT)

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, GOI* Third Advance Estimate

The government raised its estimate of

total production for the crop year 2010-11 from 16.51 million MT pegged in theSecond Advance Estimate released inFebruary 2011 to 17.29 million MT as

per the Third Advance Estimate released

in April 2011. Last year the productionof pulses was estimated at 14.66 millionMT (Figure 1). The revised annual

estimate of 17.29 million MT for 2010-11 consists of 7.02 million MT of kharifpulses and 10.27 million MT of rabi

pulses. The estimate is considerably

higher than the last record of 14.91

million MT in 2003-04. Most of therevision in the estimate has come from

revised higher estimate ofkharifpulses

production.

Good pulses production may continue

through 2011-12 if India receivesnormal monsoon as forecasted by theIndian Meteorological Department (IMD)

in its initial release of forecast in April.

The government expects the total imports

pulses to decline from 2.75 million Mreported in 2010-11 and be in the range

1.5 million MT to 1.75 million MT in tcurrent marketing season which started April 1. Indias annual demand for pulses

pegged at 19 million MT of which 3-4 millioMT is imported. The expected decline in timport is on the back of bumper cro

expected this season.

Imported pulses worth ` 2,886 lakh wtraded on the NCDEX Spot Exchange duri

the month of April.

Inflation in pulses, as measured by week

WPI figures, registered year on year decline

7% between April 23, 2011 and April 22010. The price ofchana increased 5% whthe price of tur (-12%), moong (-20%

masur(-23%) and urad (-4%) registered annual decline for the week ended April 22011 as against April 24, 2010.


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Chana (Bengal Gram)

Consistent arrivals ofchana in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in April kept its price under pressure acrossvarious mandis. The spot prices in Delhi moved in a range of ` 2,200 and ` 2,300 per quintal in Apri

(Figure 3). The range of movement in prices showed a decline by more than half from that in March

indicating reduced volatility as the arrival season comes towards the end. The arrival season for chana

comes to close by the end of May. The far- month chana futures indicate upward pressure on chana prices(Figure 4) later in the year.

Figure 3: Spot versus Near Month Futures Figure 4: Futures Price MovementPrice of Chana

Source: NCDEX

Figure 5: Production of Chana

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, GOI*Third Advance Estimate

Source: NCDEX

Table 1: Trade in Chana (MT)

Year Export Import

2007-08 161,772.45 145,605.48

2008-09 127,101.35 198,215.13

2009-10 95,264.21 338,390.94

2010-11 (Apr - Sep) 124,899.43 23,280.50

Source: DGFT, GOI

Estimated produce ofchana in 2010-11 has been revismarginally upward from 7.37 million MT per the SecoAdvance Estimate to 7.38 million MT according to

Third Advance Estimate released in April (Figure 5).

NCDEX chana futures contract clocked a volume of

million MT in the month of April. The near month futuin chana saw an average volume of 53,215 MT while

open interest hovered at 105,792 MT daily (Figure 6).


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Figure 6: Daily Volume and Open Interest in NCDEX Chana Contract

Source: NCDEX

Tur (Red Gram)

Figure 7: Spot Price Movement of Tur (Akola)

Source: NCDEX

Tur prices crashed during the month fallingaround 14% in Akola (Figure 7). The decline

was attributed to lacklustre demand and good

supply for the commodity. March and April arethe main arrival months for this pulse. Two

main trading centres for tur - Akola inMaharashtra and Gulbarga in Karnataka - have

seen more arrivals than last year. The spotprices reached the low of ` 3,225 per quintal,

only ` 225 above the MSP of ` 3,000 perquintal fixed for 2010-11.

The government revised its estimate for turproduction in 2010-11 downwards from 3.18

million MT per the Second Advance Estimatereleased in February to 3.15 million MT per the

Third Advance Estimate released in February(Figure 8).


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Urad (Black Matpe)

Figure 9: Spot Price Movement of Urad (Jalgaon)

Source: NCDEX

Figure 10: Production of Urad


Table 2: Trade in Tur (MT)

Year Export Import

2007-08 238.31 312,751.59

2008-09 132.72 502,762.03

2009-10 274.45 389,325.53

2010-11 (Apr - Sep) 24.57 63,858.16

Source: DGFT, GOI

Urad prices in Jalgaon saw choppy moveme

during the month of April (Figure 9). The primoved within a range of` 4,310 per quintal and

4,075 per quintal. Despite low arrivals, the pric

did not rise sharply due to reported subduofftake in mandis.

In the Third Advance Estimate of crop productifor 2010-11, the government revised the estima

of annual production ofuradupward to 1.82 milliMT from 1.45 million MT from the earlier estima(Figure 10). Most of the increase came fro

upward revision ofkharifoutput from 1.14 milliMT to 1.40 million MT of this pulse. The estimate rabi produce was revised from 0.31 million MT 0.42 million MT.

Figure 8: Production of Tur


Table 3: Trade in Urad (MT)

Year Export Import

2007-08 43.24 326,566.91

2008-09 33.46 440,298.13

2009-10 14.65 706,235.38

2010-11 (Apr - Sep) 1.70 318,806.72

Source: DGFT, GOI


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Spot Price Movement of Other Pulses

The spot prices ofmasur(lentil) fell sharply during April which also marks the month of maximum arrivals

for this pulse (Figure 11). Yellow peas prices were range bound like the previous month. Yellow peasproduce is expected to be low this season because of which the prices are higher by almost ` 550 per

quintal from the average spot price in April, 2010 recorded in Kanpur.

Figure 11: Spot Price Movement of Masur (Indore)

Source: NCDEX

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by the Knowledge Management Department of NCDEX Limited for thepurpose of information dissemination. The news reported is from the stated sources and does not necessarily reflecthe views of NCDEX. The facts are reported from publications and have not been checked for authenticity. NCDEX andits employees will not be responsible for any decision taken by the reader based on this report and are advised to takeindependent advise on the commodity(is) dealt in this report .

Figure 12: Spot Price Movement of Yellow Pe

(Kanpur)

Source: NCDEX

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Pulses Monthly Overview by NCDEX - May 2011