Public, Opinion and Politics: as seen from a newly (Euro)pessimistic NMS

István György TóthDirectorTárki Social Research InstituteBudapest

Reminder and outline: questions to speakers

1. How to explore more deeply the opinion polls, especially how to – before the EP elections – “translate” the opinion polling results into a communication strategy? How to use conclusions from opinion polls to best identify and address factors influencing the turnout in the EP elections?

2. How the European elections experience can be used in developing a European public sphere? How to “measure” a European public sphere?

3. How to approach national debates and how to build a European debate in the run-up to the 2009 EP elections?

Functions of opinion polls in general and EB in particular

- Exploring and tracking public opinion (EB has unique record of it)

-Monitoring and follow-up of policies (large capacities in EB: need to be innovativee to fully utilise this potential)

-Explaining social phenomena (should employ more sophisticated methods: it cannot substitute ESS, ISSP, EES, etc.)

- Predicting behaviour of voters (need for new instruments to measure political excitement, but frequency is not enough )

Not a function:

- Influencing opinion or behaviour (though, indirectly, it happens via providing information on likely behaviour of others)

What can we learn from the latest EB?(EB 69. - Spring 2008 - on EP2009)

Knowledge of date (year) is modest: (knows 16%, range 3% UK ,FI – 43%LU,

year unknown to 75%:) Current interest in European issues (participation intent?) varies: (avg: 46%, range 60+% in Ro, MT,

IE, CY to –40% in UK, SK, CZ, LV)Definite vote intent is modest: 30%, range 55+% in LU, DK, BE and

– 20% in UK, RO, AT, SK, PT Lessons: A: Both knowledge and interest of EP2009 are lower in CEE NMSs (though knowledge less markedly) B: Both knowledge and interest of EP2009 varies by education level of respondents

Question: is „A” phenomenon due to post communism or is it due to different educational structure?

Conclusion: need for more sophisticated analyses to decide on education-segmented awareness raising campaigns

Motivational background for participation (voting) in „second order” elections (learned partly from EB):

Why not voting? (Reasons for lower reported interest)

- „weight of vote is insignificant” in two steps- as the individual in the national context (68% of not voting: vote does not change anything) - (in smaller countries): as the national delegates in Europe (HU: 22/732)

- „lack of knowledge” on the role of EP (60% of not voting)(agenda and competence not fully known for the citizen)

- adequate knowledge(!) on the role of EP (?%)(incumbents in EP ≠ incumbents in Commission or in Government/Council)

Why voting? (Reasons for higher reported interest, not asked in EB: why?)

- higher personal interest (knowledge, cultural or professional reasons)- opportunity to evaluate incumbents in a national context- misperception of the role of the EP (assigning competencees

it does not have)- general democratic commitments

IT IS NOT ONLY THE ELECTORATE!(Motivations of national politics players in „second order” elections):

In general lower prize put on winning as:

- relatively low GDP share depends on it- no direct executive power attached- less patronage/appointments attached

For MPs in EP : less pressure on them to report success in Eu issues (EP2009 is not a judgement day!)

For the (national) government incumbents:

- lower turnout - lower chance for midterm disenchantment to transpire

For the growing (national) opposition forces:

- test of power, opportunity to send signals

For small parties (opposition and government): - easier pass of thresholds (psychological and legal, where applies)

Interests

Articulation

Public sphere

The road to a European political public sphere

Supranational competencies, executive power genuine European political issues

European parties (running for executive posts)

European constitutencies

Political community, participation

Pan-European media, language

Public sphere

Ways of developing (strenghtening) the European public sphere:

1: Europeanisation of national public spheres (synchronisation of issues)

2: emergence of a transnational European public (for NMS: joining it) (homogenisation)

The role of communication from the Commision in this:

1: agenda setting and framing (construction of a framework of interpretative meaning for national public spheres): to put pressure on national politicians to speak on European agenda issues)

2: profiling EU agencies for the public (vertical and horizontal as well, to raise knowledge on competencies)

3: (opinion formation and awareness raising on European issues)

4: involvement (reach out of social groups/stakeholders)

5. … AND BUILDING „EUROPEAN VOTER” IDENTITIES

How can EB (and opinion polls in general) facilitate mobilising communication campaigns („Communicating Europe”, and the „Plan D” project)?

- Detect information gaps: to help raising awareness of issues

- Identify vote intentions (however, for predicting turnout, additional contextual information is necessary)

- Monitor and evaluate campaigns for various segments

- Segment opinion for better targeting (questionnaire development needed, major segments: entrepreneurs, media, students and leading professionals)

But: The key issue is not in communication technologies but in political structure of the EU

AND BRINGING EUROPE CLOSER TO THE ELECTORATE

Thank you …

… and happy birthday, EB

www.tarki.hu.