Public Disclosure Authorized Memorandum on Recent Economic …documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/560141468036292660/... · 2016-08-26 · US $ 1.00 -L 2.00 L 1.00 -US $0.50 Outstanding

Report No. 1856-HO

Memorandum on Recent /Economic Deveopment and /

Prospects of Honduras

January 1, 1978

Latin America and Caribbean I

FOR OFFHCHAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by-recipients

.oniy in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not

otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

US$1.00 = 2.00 Lempiras (L)L 1.00 = US$0.50

GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

BANASUJPRO National Development Bank Food Marketing AgencyBNF National Development BankCABEI Central American Bank for Economic IntegrationCACM Central American Common MarketCIDA Canadian International Development AgencyCORBANA Honduran Banana CorporationCOHDEFOR National Forestry CorporationCONADI National Investment CorporationCONSUPLANE National Planning CouncilENEE National Electric Power CompanyENP National Port AuthorityFAO U.N. Food and Agricultural OrganizationPNP National Railway CompanyGDP Gross Domestic ProductHONDUTEL Honduran Telecommunications CorporationIDB Inter-American Development BankIHSS Social Security InstituteIJPM National Retirement Fund for TeachersINA National Agrarian InstituteINFOP Professional Development InstituteINVA National Housing InstituteJNBS National Social Welfare BoardJUPEMP National Retirement Fund for Public EmployeesLNB National LotteryPANI National Child Welfare InstituteSANAA National Water and Sewerage ServiceUNAH National UniversityUSAID U.S. Agency for International Development

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

This report is based on the findings of

Messrs. Juan Giral and Rene Vandendries

during an economic mission to Honduras

in June, 1977. The information in this

report was updated based on discussions

held with the Government in August 1977.

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization

HONDURAS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

COUNTRY DATA

MIAP

SatDIARY AND CONCLUSIONS ........................ i - vi

I. RECENT ECONOIIC DEVELOPMENTS ................................. 1

A. Growth Trends ....... .................. 1B. Sectoral Trends ...... .................. I

Agriculture .... ......... .............................. 1Forest Industries ..................................... 3Industrial Sector ..................................... 3

C. Public Investment ...... ................. 5D. Public Finances ...... .................. 7

The Importance of the Public Sector ............... 7The Financial Position of the Central Government ....... 7The Financial Position of the Rest of the Public

Sector . .10E. The Balance of Payments .. 11

II. THE PUBLIC INVESTI4ENT PROGRAII AND THE COUNTRY'S DEVELOP-MENT PROSPECTS .12

A. Growth Prospects and Exports .14B. The Public Investment Program .15C. Public Sector Finances and Public Savings Prospects .18D. Balance of Payments and Creditworthiness ........ e..... 22E. Financial Viability of the Investment Program .22

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Page 1 of 2 pages

COUNTRY D2J0A -rPQNDUBAS

AREA 2/ POPULATION DENSITY112,100 1mJ 3.0 million (mid-1976) 27.0 per 2/

Rate of Growth: 2 71/ (from1961 to 1976 ) 104.0 per 1 of arable land

POPUMATION CaARCTEEISTICS (1970-75) MEALTH (1970 )Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 49.3 Population per physician 3,710.Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 14.6 Population per hospital bed 570Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births) 117.6

INCOME DISTRIBUTION (1967-68) DISTRIBTflION OF LAND WINERSHIPZ of national income, eluet quintile 60.6 Z owned by top 102 of awners

lowest lquintile 2.5 % owned by malleat 107 of owners

ACCESS TO PIPED WATER(1074) ACCESS TO ELECTCITY (1974)7 of population - urban 89.0 Z of population - urban 27.0

- rural 15.0 - rural

NUTRITION (1969-71) EDUCATITO (1914,)Calorie intake as % of requirements 94.0 Adult literacy rate % 52.0Per capita protein intake 56.o Primary school enrollment Z 81.0

GNP PER CAPITA in 1976: US $ 390

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 197 6 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (7. constant prices)

llS $ Min. _ lQ65-73 i973-76 1976

GNP at Market Pr'ces 1,162 100.0 4.1 3.7 6.CGross Domestic Inrestment 228 20.4 5.3 6.5 2.4Grogs National Saviug 106 9.1 4.7 3.7 27.3Current Account Balance 3/ -109 -9.4Exports of Goods, NYS 443 38.1 5.3 2.8 7.1Imports of Goods, NFS 509 43.8 4.8 5.7 8.0

OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE ANDPRODUCTIVITY IN 1976

Value Added Labor Force4 V. A. Per WorkerUS$4Mln. % Hin. % US 7 .

Agriculture 320 29.4 .485 60.3 660 48.7Industry 301 27.6 .119 14.8 2529 186.5Services 468 43.o .199 24.9 2352 173.5Unallocated

Total/Average 1089 100.0 .803 100.0 1356 10Q.0

GOVERNMENT FINANCEGeneral Governoent Central Government

(uS$ MIn.) % of GDP (US$ Min.) % of GDP197_ 197 6 19'r4-76 1976 197 6 1974-76

Current Receipts 220 18,1 17.3 -183 15.0 14.4Current Expenditure 19 166.4 15.6 176 14.4 13.2Current Surplus 21 1.7 1 7 7 o.6 1.2Capital Expenditures 73 6.0 5.9 68 5.6 5.7External Assistance (net) 44 3.6 3.4 3. 2.8 3.1

1/ Population growth rate is lower than the rate of natural increase, largely because of emigration since1969 of El Salvadoreans residentsin Honduras.

2/ GNP per capita estimate at market prices, calculated by same conversion method as World Bank Atlas.3/ Includes transfers.

Total labor force: unemnloyed are allocated to sector of their normal occunation. "Unallocated"consists mainly of unemployed workers seeking their first Job.

not availablenot applicable

Page 2 of 2 pages

COUNTRY DATA - HONDURAS

MONEY. CREDIT and PRICES 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

(Million US$ outstanding end period)Money and Quasi Money 182.2 207.8 253.8 265.9 301.1 389.2Bank Credit to Public Sector 35.1 40.1 43.8 42.9 43.0 46.8Bank Credit to Private Sector 184.5 206.7 253.8 290.6 348.5 418.6

(Percentages or Index Numbers)

Money and Quasi Money as a of GDP 24.0 25.4 28.2 27.5 28.5 32.0Consumer Price Index (1966 = 100) 1.1.6 115.,4 120.7 136.4 147.4 154.7

Annual percentage changes in:Consumer Price Index 2.3 3.4 4.6 13.0 8.1 5.0Bank credit to Public Sector 30.5 14.2 9.2 -2.1 0.2 8.8Bank credit to Private Sector 6.2 12.0 22.8 14.5 19.9 20.1

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCRANDISE EXPORTS (1976)

1L74 1975 1976 US $ Mln %(Millions US S)

Exports of Goods, NFS 331.3 343.5 443.1 Bananas 106.7 26.4Imports of Goods, NYS 456.0 452.4 509.0 Coffee 100.3 24.9Resource Gap (deficit - -) -124.7 -108.9 - 66. Wood 380 9.

- - ~~~~~~~~~~ ~~Beef 25.6 6.3Interest Payments (net) -18.1 -23.8 -33.1 All other comodities 132.9 32.9Workers' Remittances . *- . Total 403.5Other Factor Payments (net) 4.6 -4.5 -23.0Net Tranafers 32.5 1. 13.2 EXTZRNAL DEBT. DECEMBER 31. 1976Balance on Current &ccount -105.7 -119.6 -108.9

Direct Foreign Investment -1.2 10.4 7.6 US $ MinNet MLT Borrowing 37.8 92.8 70 .,9 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed I 334-9

Disbursemenr (43.T) (99.2) (8*2) Non-Guaranteed Private DebtAmortizatiou (6.0) (6.4) (13.3) Total outstanding & DisbursedSubtotal 3=!7 6 2'

Capital Grants .. .. .. DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1976-Other Capital (net) 65.7 38.0 69.7 %Other items n.e.i 5,l 16. -1.1Increase in Reserves (-) -1.9 -16.9 -23.0 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 6.5

Non-Guaranteed Private DebtGross Reserves (end year) 59.2 115.9 151.0 Total outstanding & DisbursedNet Reserves (end year) 31.8 48.7 71.7

RATE OF EXCHANGE IBRD/IDA LENDING, (October 31/77) (Million US S):

Through - 1971 IBRD IDAUS $ 1.00 - L 2.00

L 1.00 - US $0.50 Outstanding & Disbursed 85.2 32.3Undisbursed 57.5 17.1

Since - 1971 Outstanding irl. Undisbursed 152.7 49,4US $ 1.00 = L 2.00L 1.00 - US $0.50

1/ Repayable in foreign currency.2/ Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services.

not available

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I

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Introduction

i. The most recent Bank report on Honduras (Report No. 1165-HO) con-cluded that the expansion of domestic investment was constrained mainly bylimits on the expected availability of foreign capital; by the growingburden of the external debt service, in particular after 1980; and by lowdomestic savings. The report recommended: (i) strengthening the balanceof payments by promoting public projects in export-oriented activities,mainly agriculture and forestry, and by stimulating private investment inforeign exchange earning projects; and (ii) mobilizing domestic savingsby increasing tax revenues and by improving the public sector administration.

ii. Since the last report was written, the outlook has changed inseveral respects. The balance of payments is expected to improve substan-tially because: (i) export prospects are better because of higher coffeeprices, a more rapid than expected recovery of banana production, and thecompletion of some export-oriented projects, such as the sugar mills; and(ii) somewhat lower external borrowing in 1975 and 1976 and higher exportshave resulted in a lower debt service than projected in the earlier report.Conversely, on the domestic side, in spite of rapidly rising revenues, thefiscal performance has fallen below expectations because of rapidly in-creasing expenditures that have reduced current savings. In brief, whilein the earlier report the main difficulty was identified on the externalfinancing side, it now appears that the domestic financing problem is themore acute. The Government is aware of this problem and is now developinga series of proposals to deal with it, which may include new tax measures,tariff increases for public enterprises and domestic bond issues. TheGovernment plans to have the proposals completed soon and implemented intime to meet the savings needs of the investment program in 1979.

Background

iii. Honduras' long-term growth rate has been low. During 1950-75,real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.7 percent, i.e., only slightly abovethe 2.7 percent rate of population growth. During this period, the country'sdevelopment was hampered mainly by: inadequate human and physical infra-structure. Recently, significant progress was made towards creating a basictransport network and expanding electric power generating capacity; but a 1974hurricane damaged the banana plantations, which provided the main exportproduct of the country, leading to a temporary setback.

v. With a per capita income of US$390 in 1976, Honduras is one of thepoorest countries in the Western Hemisphere and continues to be predominantlya land of small farmers obtaining a meager living by primitive methods. Onlyabout half of all adults are literate and the protein and calorie intake ofmost of the population is below minimum requirements, particularly in ruralareas. Roughly 60 percent of the population has no access to piped water andan estimated 80 percent lives without access to sanitary waste disposal sys-tems. These averages conceal large disparities between rural and urban areas.

- ii -

v. The population of about 3 million is young, with about 46 percentunder age 16. Both the crude birth rate and the crude death rate remain high.Though urban migration is still relatively limited, the rate of growth of theurban population (5 percent a year) is considerably higher than the overallpopulation growth rate. Large rural-urban income differentials and contrast-ing living conditions are behind the population movement to the cities.

vi. The agricultural sector accounts for about one-third of GDP and80 percent of exports in the 1970s. The extensive destruction of the bananaplantations by hurricane Fifi in 1974 and the slow growth of non-bananaagricultural production resulted in a very low growth rate during 1971-76.Real rural incomes increased little during this period. With about two-thirdsof the labor force employed in agriculture, the very low productivity andincomes in this sector are reflected in the large rural-urban income differen-tials noted above. Government policy towards the agricultural sector, however,has changed in recent years. To improve agricultural incomes of lower-incomegroups, the Government has embarked on an agrarian reform. In addition, theGovernment has stepped up support services to increase agricultural output andexports and is proceeding with new rural development projects.

vii. The manufacturing sector accounts for about 17 percent of GDP atfactor cost and provides employment to about 10 percent of the labor force.Industrial production is highly concentrated in the cities of San Pedro Sulaand Tegucigalpa. During the 1960s, the manufacturing sector grew at a lowannual rate (3.8 percent) owing to the small size of the domestic market, thelack of infrastructure, and the inability of the domestic firms to take advan-tage of the opportunities offered by the Central American Common Market.Manufacturing growth, however, accelerated significantly in the 1970s. During1971-76, manufacturing real value-added grew at an annual rate of 7 percentowing, on one hand, to the increase of domestic demand and, on the other hand,to the expansion and modernization of industrial capacity. The most dynamicsubsectors were: textiles, petroleum refining, paper products, printing, woodproducts, metal-mechanic industries, and non-metallic minerals.

Government Development Policies

viii. Since 1972, Government development efforts have increased substan-tially and several measures have been taken to lay the basis for an improvedeconomic outlook over the longer term. The Government development policyunderwent major changes leading to an increase of public investment, parti-cularly in infrastructure; to a restructuring of forestry production and thecreation of a public agency, COHDEFOR, for exploiting the country's largeforest resources; and to a redistribution of land to landless peasants whichthus far has benefited about 45,000 families.

ix. The Government intends to increase significantly its developmentefforts during the next five years. Its strategy calls for a large publicinvestment program; an export drive in forestry, agriculture and tourism; astepped up program of financial support for agricultural development; and acontinuation of the agrarian reform and other social programs to improve the

- iii -

distribution of income and wealth. The investment program represents anambitious effort to create the necessary power and transport infrastructurefor continuous growth in the next decade; to develop the country's forestresources and strengthen the balance of payments; and to raise the livingconditions of the poor in rural areas and improve social services in thecities. The magnitude of the proposed development effort raises someimportant issues that are dealt with in Chapter II.

Recent Economic Developments

x. During 1974-75, total GDP remained almost stagnant, severe balanceof payments difficulties arose, and the country's savings capacity was serious-ly reduced. Import prices grew almost three times as rapidly as export pricesbetween 1973 and 1975 and the terms of trade deteriorated by about one-fifth.The substantial hurricane damage to the banana plantations reduced bananaexport volumes in 1975 to about one-half of the level of 1973. Other exportswere negatively affected by the world recession. As a result, the resourcegap, which was equal to about 1 percent of GDP during 1972-73, averaged 11.6percent of GDP during 1974-75. The rate of inflation measured by the consumerprice index, which averaged 2.7 percent a year between 1966 and 1973, accele-rated to 13 percent in 1974 before declining to 8 percent in 1975.

xi. The continuation of dynamic economic policies and, in particular, ahigh level of public investment and the gradual recovery of banana productionas well as the doubling of coffee export prices are among the major factorsresponsible for the improvement of the economic situation in 1976. Real GDPgrew at about 6 percent. The price level increased by only 5.5 percent as aresult of the bumper crop of basic grains, the slowdown of imported prices andthe domestic price controls. Merchandise export earnings grew by about31 percent in current terms over 1975, about half of it as a result of highercoffee prices. The balance of payments, however, showed a large deficit oncurrent account (US$109 million), only slightly below the 1975 deficit; thisis explained by an increase in imports that almost offset the rise of exports.

xii. In 1976, Central Government finances were characterized by: (i) a20 percent increase in current receipts as the 1975 tax reform began to yieldrevenues, in particular, the value-added tax, the coffee export tax and theexcise tax on liquor; (ii) a 22 percent increase in current expenditures ascompared to 13 percent in 1971-75; and (iii) a resulting low level of currentsavings.

xiii. The Government has made a significant effort to increase publicinvestment in the social and productive sectors. Although a large share ofthe 1976 public fixed investment continued to be allocated to transport(36 percent) and power (21 percent), about 27 percent was allocated to thesocial sectors against 22 percent in 1972, and about 10 percent to theproductive sectors against 1 percent in 1972. In the social sectors, the mainallocations were for water and sewerage, health, education and urban develop-ment. In the productive sectors, the main investments were for forestry andagriculture.

- iv -

Growth Prospects

xiv. As a result of the Government development programs and improvedexport prospects, the overall growth of the economy in the next five yearsis expected to be more rapid than in the past, barring natural disasters.Exports of goods and nonfactor services at constant 1975 prices are expectedto grow at about 8.5 percent a year, public investment at 11 percent a year,and private investment at about 6 percent a year.

xv. Export prospects will be closely related to the growth of bananas,coffee, lumber, sugar, beef and cotton. Banana exports are expected torecover to 40 million boxes in 1977, as the yields per hectare of the newplantations increase. Coffee exports by voIume may increase in 1977 on thebasis of the increased use of fertilizers and the improvement program of theCoffee Institute; coffee prices, although declining from the high 1977 level,are projected to remain above the 1976 level for several more years. Lumberexports should increase when new sawmills begin to produce in 1979; sugarexports when new sugar mills start operating in 1977-79. In addition,miscellaneous exports and tourism are expected to be buoyant.

xvi. The balance of payments position should show significant improve-ment for 1977 as larger coffee and banana export earnings should reducesubstantially the current account deficit and increase significantly foreignexchange reserves. Thereafter, as the import needs of the economy expand, thecurrent account deficit is expected to show a large increase. Therefore,during 1977-81, to carry out its public fixed investment program, includinga large hydroelectric power project (El Cajon), Honduras will need a largeofficial capital inflow, with net external disbursements averaging aboutUS$110 million a year. The debt service ratio would increase from 6.6 percentin 1976 to about 9.4 percent by 1981 and to 13.4 percent by 1985.

The Public Investment Program and its Financing

xvii. The public investment program for 1977-81 can be expected to in-crease fixed annual investment to about 450 million current lempiras in1981, i.e., an annual rate of increase of about 20 percent in current prices(12 percent in constant prices). The annual average level of fixed investmentis estimated at about 360 million lempiras.. Gross foreign financing isprojected to average about 65 percent of investment expenditures. Power,transport and telecommunications, forestry, and social infrastructure are thesectors expected to command the largest share of fixed investment expenditures.

xviii. This investment level is 30 percent lower than the initial CONSUPLANEaverage planned investment level of about 511 million lempiras a year for1977-81, which has now been revised downwards to an average investment levelof 383 million lempiras a year. The mission's estimate (an average of 360million lempiras) takes into account the state of preparation of projects, inparticular, arrangements for their financing, and the time needed for contract-ing the public works.

xix. The public investment program is designed to alleviate the mostsignificant bottlenecks to the country's long-term development process. To

accelerate economic and social development, the program puts emphasis on:(i) investments in productive projects with good export potential, mainlyfor forestry, agriculture and tourism; (ii) investments in infrastructure,mainly for power and transport, which are still very crucial given.thecountry's stage of development and (iii) social investments. In the past,the bulk of public investment was allocated to transport and power; smallershares were allocated to the social and productive sectors. In recent years,however, government policy has put increasing emphasis on investments in theproductive sectors, mainly agriculture and forestry development. This policyis reflected in the composition of the investment program for 1977-81.

xx. The size of the investment program is affected substantially by thelarge investment required for the El Cajon hydroelectric project, which is animportant element of the overall development program because it is the mosteconomical means of meeting the long-term demand for power. At the same time,El Cajon will reduce the need for fuel imports and will represent an importantstep towards bringing about an interconnected electric power system in CentralAmerica. It will generate exportable surplus energy to neighboring countriesin the first 3-4 years of operation of the project.

xxi. The financial viability of the scaled-down investment program(including the large US$413 million El Cajon hydroelectric project) dependsheavily on the domestic savings effort and on the ability of the Governmentto raise part of the required external financing on concessionary terms.Carrying out the investment program without a considerable amount of con-cessionary financing would be difficult for Honduras, because of the higherdebt service payments that more conventional financing would entail, and theadditional burden this debt service would put on future public revenues andon foreign exchange earnings.

xxii. Financing the scaled-down investment program will mean an evenlarger domestic fiscal effort, and lead to a higher external debt servicethan now projected, if any of the following developments occur:

(i) a lower growth of export values and GDP, because of lowercoffee prices and smaller banana export volumes than nowexpected;

(ii) a faster growth of imports than projected and thus largerfinancial needs for the balance of payments; this willoccur if the Government does not put into effect therevenue measures outlined in paragraph 60.

(iii) a cost overrun in the construction of El Cajon, beyondnormal contingency allowances as sometimes occurs inprojects of this kind; and

(iv) a lower than projected increase in current savings.

- vi -

xxiii. Some of the above eventualities may well occur; even though, bytheir very nature, they cannot be predicted. Given the Honduran economy'sstill heavy dependence upon a few agricultural commodities whose prospectsdepend on world market conditions, the impact which adverse weather condi-tions can have particularly on bananas, and the large share of imports inGDP, it is only prudent to take this possibility into account. To preventany of these developments from jeopardizing the investment program, it isadvisable for Honduras to obtain the maximum feasible amount of concession-ary funds for its financing. It would be particularly important to raisea substantial amount of concessionary financing for the US$413 millionEl Cajon project, the largest project of the investment program.

I. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

A. Growth Trends

1. Honduras' long-term growth rate has been low, especially in rela-tion to the rate of population growth, which is estimated at 2.7 percent ayear. During 1950-75, real per capita GNP increased 29 percent or about 1percent a year and was estimated at about US$390 for 1976, which is one ofthe lowest in the Western Hemisphere, exceeding only that of Haiti 1/. Themain factors behind this relatively poor economic performance are: inade-quate human and physical infrastructure and recurrent hurricane damage to thebanana plantations, which provided the main export crop.

2. During 1967-76, the real gross domestic product increased at anannual rate of 3.7 percent. The export dependence of the economy on bananasand weather conditions has prevented it from growing at a faster rate. (Seepara. 37). Exports of goods and services grew only by 4.2 percent a year.Nevertheless, domestic fixed investment increased by 6.4 percent a year andgovernment consumption by 5.9 percent a year; private consumption has increasedby only 3.4 percent a year thus bringing about a declining ratio of privateconsumption to GDP. The sluggish performance of the economy is reflectedon the import demand; the quantum of imports has grown by 4.4 percent a year.As a result, the resource gap has not been very large, except in the latesixties and mid-seventies because of hurricane damage to the banana plantations.

3. In 1976, the real GDP increased at 5.9 percent; the per capita GDPat 3.1 percent. Real exports of goods and services grew at 4.6 percent asbanana exports increased 65 percent by volume over the depressed level of 1975;in addition, larger coffee earnings provided additional stimulus for growth.Domestic fixed capital formation went up by 9.5 percent as investment in thepublic and private sector expanded rapidly. General Government consumptionincreased by 20 percent owing mainly to a large increment in the purchases ofgoods and services. Private consumption increased at 5.6 percent, slightlybelow the GDP growth rate, as domestic private savings financed an increasingproportion of investment. Total imports expanded by only 3.0 percent.

B. Sectoral Trends

Agriculture

4. The agricultural sector accounted for about one-third of GDP in theearly 1970s.- It grew at a very low rate during 1971-76 (real value-added in-creased at 0.6 percent a year), owing to the extensive destruction of thebanana plantations by hurricane Fifi in 1974, and the slow growth of non-bananaagricultural production. As a result, real rural incomes probably dropped.

1/ World Bank Atlas figures.

- 2 -

5. Uneven land distribution, as well as deficient credit, t.-...iicaiservices and development programs for agriculture have kept non-banana agri-cultural output and growth far below its potential. Roughly half of the farmsaccounted for only about 6 percent of the land in farms; two-thirds ha,. anaverage of only 2.5 hectares in 1966. In addition, about one-third of ruralfamilies are landless. Furthermore, the predominance of steep, rugged terrain,and the fragmentation of most rural areas into isolated valleys seriouslylimit the agricultural potential and bring about an uneven occupation of landin the countryside. Small farmers use primitive methods of land cultivationto obtain a meager living.

6. With about two-thirds of the labor force employed in agric_lture,the very low productivity of labor in this sector is a very significantproblem, which is reflected in the large rural-urban income differentials(the average rural per capita income is about one-fifth of the average percapita national income). In addition, living conditions in the rural areasare much poorer than in the cities; the country's average indices of health,nutrition, and other social indicators conceal significant regional dispari-ties between rural and urban areas.

7. Until the implementation of an agrarian reform program in recentyears, major public sector involvement in agriculture was basically limitedto credit programs for commercial farmers. Government policy for agricul-ture, however, has changed significantly in recent years. It has now twobroad objectives: (i) the improvement of agricultural incomes of lower-income groups, primarily through an agrarian reform program; and (ii) t:.eincrease of agricultural output and exports from both agrarian reform bettle-ments and commercial farmers.

8. To improve agricultural incomes of lower-income groups, temporaryland reform measures were introduced in December 1972 and about 23,000 fami-lies were benefited under these measures during 1973 and 1974. In January1975, a comprehensive Agrarian Reform Law replaced the temporary measures.This law aims at a much improved utilization of land and increases in incomesof the poorest peasants, through the transfer of unutilized or poorly uti-lized land from large landowners to landless rural families. About 22,000families were benefited under the Agrarian Reform Law duting 1975 and 1976with the pace quickening in the latter year. Thus, during 1973-76, land hasbeen distributed to about 45,000 families, but an undetermined number haveabandoned the settlements because they did not receive enou-h productive landand support services. Limited resources have prevented the Government fromproviding the needed level of services to all the settlements. In order toovercome these difficulties, the Government is seeking external assistance toprovide credits and technical support services for the program.

9. To increase agricultural output and exports, the Government is ex-pected to step up support for commercial agriculture and the agrarian reformsettlements through increasing crops and livestock development financing;expanding training of agzicultural technicians and technical assistancesupport to rural development projects; and developing and executing newprojects for agriculture/rural development in order to increase the outputand the productivity of the agricultural labor force and thus raise rural

incomes. High priority areas for potential rural development projects havebeen identified. In the short run, the main agricultural project would bethe development of the Aguan Valley, but the Government is preparing now anumber of rural development projects for the next few years for the Quimistan,Sula. and Guayape valleys; for the Choluteca and Comayagua areas; and for theintegrated development of Florida - La Entrada.

Forest Industries

10. In January 1974, a new forestry law nationalized timber rights inthe forest areas, established the boundaries for private sector participationin forestry development, and created a state forestry corporation (COHDEFOR).COHDEFOR was put in charge of all basic forestry and forest industries poli-cies and activities in order to exploit the country's forest resources morerationally. In the short run, production and exports of lumber dropped during1975-77 as a result of stricter controls of cuttings and production andmarketing difficulties. The situation, however, is expected to change whennew COHDEFOR sawmills under construction in the Olancho area start producingduring 1979-81. In 1981, lumber exports by volume are expected to increase 80percent over the 1976 level.

11. The development of the Olancho forest industries is the main ini-tiative undertaken by COHDEFOR. A first stage development is under way withthe construction of the sawmills and related infrastructure. In this regard,recent estimates of the forest potential in the Olancho area indicate a smallerreserve than initially estimated (32 million cubic meters instead of 48 millioncubic meters); COHDEFOR, however, is considering exploiting additional forestreserves to the north in order to maintain the project's target level of lum-ber exports. Further development of the Olancho forest industries will takeplace with the construction of a pulp and paper mill during 1983-85.

12. The potential for additional increases in lumber production exists.There are large pine forests outside the Olancho area estimated tentativelyat 50 million m3. The country's hardwood potential has been partially eva-luated in a forest resource study 1/ covering a one million hectare area inthe northeast part of the country. The development potential of this areais estimated at 82.4 million m3 of saw timber-sized hardwood, of which 59.4million m3 are considered suitable as raw materials for three suggestedcomplexes for manufacturing plywood, sawnwood and railroad ties.

Industrial Sector

13. The industrial sector accounts for about 17 percent of the grossdomestic product at factor cost and provides employment for about 10 percentof the labor force. Industrial production is highly concentrated in thecities of San Pedro Sula and Tegucigalpa. During the 1960s, the manufacturingsector grew at a low annual real rate (3.8 percent) owing to the small size of

1/ Government of Honduras. Canadian International Development Agency,Forest Resource Study, June 1975.

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the domestic market, the lack of infrastructure, and the inability of domesticfirms to take advantage of the opportunities offered by the CACM. Manufactur-ing growth, however, accelerated significantly in the 1970s. During 1971-76,real manufacturing value-added grew at an annual rate of 7 percent owing, onone hand, to the increase of domestic demand due to the better integration ofthe domestic market (which resulted from the improved basic transport network),and to the adjustments that took place in the CACMI after 1969; and, on theother hand, to the expansion and modernization of industrial capacity.The most dynamic subsectors were: textiles, petroleum refining, paper products,printing, wood products, metal-mechanic industries, and non-metallic minerals.

14. Traditional consumer goods industries, such as food products, bever-ages, textiles and apparel, together with intermediate goods industries, suchas lumber and cardboard boxes, are predominant. In 1975, the largest indus-trial subsectors were food products (30.6 percent of industrial value-added), beverages (15.5 percent), textiles and apparel (10.3 percent),non-metallic minerals (5.9 percent), and chemicals (5.5 percent). These sub-sectors represented about 68 percent of total manufacturing valued added. 1/

15. Fixed investment in industrial plants accelerated in recent years,particularly owing to the installation of four new sugar mills. Other import-ant expansions took place in meat packing, beverages, textiles, sawmills,plastics and non-metallic minerals. Further expansion is expected to takeplace from new projects recently granted incentives under the industrialdevelopment laws. Among them: seafood products, paper, fertilizers, woodproducts, chemicals and plastics, tires, meat products, textiles and apparel,non-metallic mineral products, and assembling of consumer durables and trans-port equipment.

16. The import dependence (the percentage of imported raw materialsover total raw materials) of Honduras' industry is high. It was about 53percent in 1975; and it has not changed significantly since 1971 when itreached 52.5 percent 2/. Some industries, however, show a much higher levelof import dependence, such as apparel (77.1 percent), printing (97.7 percent),paper (99.4 percent), chemicals (79.1 percent), rubber products (91.1 per-cent), metal-mechnic industries (93.1 percent), and petroleum derivatives(100 percent).

17. The mai- objectives of the industrial development policy are out-lined in CONSUPL.^NE's program for 1974-78. These are: (i) to raise theshare of industrial value-added in total GDP; (ii) to increase the domesticvalue-add-d of industrial exports; (iii) to promote industries in whichHonduras has a comparative advantage, in particular those which use raw

1/ The above note" figureb for the industrial sector exclude sawmillproduction.

2/ iireccion Genera) -- Estadist,_d y Censos, Industrial Surveys, 1971and 1975.

materials from forestry and agriculture; (iv) to improve productivity andraise the level of technology; (v) to promote intermediate and capital goodsindustries; and (vi) to increase import substitution. Specific actions underway in support of the industrial sector are: (i) stepped-up promotional andfinancial efforts by COHDEFOR and CONADI; (ii) efforts to increase the avail-ability of prefeasibility and other industrial studies for the private sector'suse; and (iii) a modified legal framework more suitable for small industry andartisans.

18. COHDEFOR is proceeding with important projects in lumber processing,while CONADI is supporting industrial development by direct financing andguarantees to food processing, particularly sugar; textiles and apparel;wood products; paper products; metal-mechanic industries; and non-metallicminerals. The demand for credit by the industrial sector will be substantialin the next few years and CONADI has programmed a significant level of indus-trial financing. This level, however, is based on a significant amount offoreign credits and guarantees with implications for the country's debtservice and is expected to be followed closely by the Central Bank of Honduras.

19. On the basis of planned industrial expansions and demand perspec-tives, industrial development prospects are good. The domestic market formanufactured goods will be strong since Honduras' medium-term developmentprospects are favorable as real GDP increases at almost 6 percent a yearduring the next five years and public investment expands rapidly. In addi-tion, industrial exports to the CACM are expected to continue growing asin recent years and exports to the rest of the world would be dynamic assales of seafood and meat products, wood products, textiles and apparelexpand.

C. Public Investment

20. The Government first expanded its development efforts in the 1950sbut significant results were not achieved until the late 1960s and mid-1970swhen the public sector prepared and executed significantly more projects.Public investment, as a percentage of GDP, has increased from 2.9 percent in1960 to 6.6 percent in 1970 and to 7.5 percent in 1976, although there havebeen fluctuations in part related to the lumpiness of some projects and thelack of preparatory work for new projects, which has resulted on a decline ofinvestment after the completion of some large projects. (See Table 1.)

21. The bulk of public fixed investment expenditures had traditionallybeen allocated to transport and power. A smaller share had been allocatedto the social sectors and to the productive sectors. The situation, however,has changed since 1973. As a result of significant changes in the Governmentdevelopment policy, some of the productive investments in forestry and agri-culture have been undertaken by the public sector, thereby increasing theshare of public investment in total investment and shifting also the compo-sition of public investment slightly in favor of the productive sectors.(See Table 1.)

Table 1: PUBLIC INVESTMENT

(As percent of total public fixed investment)

1960 1970 1972 1975 1976

Infrastructure 65 78 76 59 62

Transport 55 54 47 33 36Power 9 23 23 23 21Communications 1 1 6 2 5

Social Sectors 35 114 23 37 28

Education 4 4 7 9 6Health 11 2 4 5 7Water and Sewerage 1/ 2 2 12 8Housing 1 2 2 4 1Urban Development and 2/

Other 19 - 4 8 7 6

Productive Sectors - 8 1 4 10

Agriculture - 8 1 4 5Forestry - - - - 1Tourism - - - - 4

Total 100 100 100 100 100

Fixed Investment 19.2 94.4 55.9 152.8 182.9(million lempiras)

As percentage of GDP 2.9 6.6 3.4 7.2 7.5

As percentage of totalfixed investment 22.8 34.6 22.5 33.5 34.3

1/ Included in health.2/ Includes public buildings.

Source: Statistical Appendix Table 5.11, Report No. 1165-HO for 1960, 1970 and1972.

22. In transport, the main achievements have been: (i) the completionof the major trunk network linking the large population centers with theproduction areas; production has benefited from a better integrated domesticmarket and from easier transport to neighboring countries; (ii) the moderni-zation of Puerto Cortes on the Atlantic Ocean and the construction of Henecan'sfacilities on the Pacific Ocean.

23. In power, ENEE's generating capacity has increased rapidly. Powerinvestment has averaged over 20 percent of total public fixed investment inthe 1970s but, at present, electricity is available to only about 30 percentof the population living in the more densely populated areas. Annual percapita electricity consumption of 150 kilowatt-hour remains below the averagelevel in other Central American countries.

D. Public Finances

The Importance of the Public Sector

24. The public sector's role in the economy has expanded in the last fewyears. This expansion is noticeable in the higher level of Central Governmentactivities and the significant growth of infrastructure and social services; itis also reflected in the increasing number and role of public enterprises anddecentralized institutions.

25. The Central Government expanded its role in the economy graduallyduring the 1960s and more rapidly during the 1970s. Current revenues haveincreased from 11 percent of GDP in 1960 to 13 percent in 1970 and to about 15percent in 1976 because of increased revenues from foreign trade taxes. Fiscalexpenditures have increased from 12 percent of GDP in 1960 to 13 percent in1970 and to about 20 percent in 1976. These trends have resulted in anincreasing overall fiscal deficit.

26. The operations of the public enterprises and decentralized institu-tions have had two sources of growth: (i) the expansion of their activities,as production and revenues expanded, and (ii) the creation of new enterprisesand institutions. During 1971-76, revenues expanded significantly at ENEE(17.7 percent a year), ENP (14.4 percent a year), and IHSS (34.4 percent ayear) and new enterprises were created, such as COHDEFOR and COBHANA, whichalso have large revenues.

The Financial Position of the Central Government

27. The overall Central Government deficit has increased from 1 percentof GDP in 1960 to 2.5 percent in 1970 and to 4.9 percent in 1976. These in-creases are related to the greater dynamism of the Central Government and tothe significant expansion in infrastructure and social services. The growingdeficits have been financed by increased external borrowings and, to a lesserextent, by domestic credit. Current savings have traditionally been low and,because of the rapid increase in current outlays, have shown a deterioratingtrend in 1975 and 1976 (see Table 3 below).

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28. Current revenues have grown faster than GDP as tax collections andnon-tax revenues have proven buoyant. Tax revenues have increased from10.0 percent of GDP in 1960 to 10.9 percent in 1970 and to 12.8 percent in1976 (see Table 2 below), reflecting tax reforms and administrative improve-ments. During 1960-69, increasing revenue collections from tax reforms andfrom rising economic activities were offset by declining revenues from importduties. The main tax developments were: (i) the introduction of a sales taxin 1964; (ii) the increase in income tax collections from the banana companiesas production recovered from the effects of the Panama disease; (iii) thereduction of import duties as the CACM trade liberalization program advanced;and (iv) the establishment of a unified tax role in 1969. During 1970-75,rising revenues from foreign trade and direct taxes increased the total fiscalburden. The main tax developments were: (i) the introduction of new taxes,such as the banana export tax in 1974; 1/ (ii) the increase of rates onexisting taxes; (iii) the changes in import taxation because of Honduras'withdrawal from the free trade arrangements of the CACM; and (iv) the improve-ments of the tax collection administration. In 1976, the main tax developmentwas the fiscal impact of the tax reform enacted in December 1975 that hasyielded significant additional revenues. With the reform, the Central Govern-ment revised the income tax on dividends and distributed profits and also onprofit remittances abroad; introduced a tax royalty for mineral production;substituted a 3 percent value-added tax for the sales tax; raised the specificrates of the taxes on beer and liquor and the ad-valorem tax on cigarettes;and changed the tax on coffee exports to an ad-valorem tax with marginal ratesranging from 10 percent for coffee prices below L/100 a bag of 46 kgs. to 20percent for coffee prices above L/120 a bag. (The trend of taxes during1967-76 is presented in Table 5.2, Statistical Appendix.)

1/ The tax was created at L/1 per box by Decree No. 122 (April 1974);reduced to L/0.5 per box by Decree No. 143 (August 1974) with annualincreases of L/0.1 until the tax will reach L/1 per box by 1979.

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Table 2: TAX BURDEN OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

(In percentages)

1960 1965 1966 1969 1970 1975 1976

Tax revenues/GDP 10.0 9.6 9.9 10.4 10.9 11.7 12.8

Taxes on income andproperty/GDP 1.7 1.8 2.6 3.3 3.1 3.7 3.1

Taxes on domestictransactions/GDP 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.0 4.3

Taxes on foreign trade/GDP 5.5 4.6 4.2 3.4 3.5 4.0 5.3

Miscellaneous taxes/GDP 0.1 - - - - - -

Non-tax revenues/GDP 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 2.2 2.7 2.3

Total current revenues/GDP 10.9 10.7 11.3 11.7 13.4 14.4 15.0

Source: Table 5.2, Statistical Appendix.

29. The fiscal system relies heavily on foreign trade taxes anddomestic transactions taxes. Direct taxes have gained some ground duringthe 1960s and early 1970s but the 1976 boom in coffee revenues, resultingfrom the 1975 reform and the high coffee prices, has temporarily reduced theshare of direct taxes in 1976.

30. Non-tax revenues of the Central Government have grown significantlyin recent years. The main sources of increasing revenues have been the tele-phone and telegraph fees; transfers from new financial public enterprises,including COHDEFOR; and private grants. Non-tax revenues would become lessimportant in 1977 with the creation of HONDUTEL, which will place the revenuesfrom the Government telecommunications services outside Central Governmentfinances.

31. 1 nditures of the Central Government have expanded rapidly inrecent years as the Government's development effort has accelerated. During1974-76, total expenditures have increased by 24.8 percent a year; of this,current expenditures have grown by 23.2 percent a year and investment expen-ditures by 29.7 percent a year. These results contrast with those of theperiod 1970 to 1973 when total expenditures increased by 3.9 percent a year,reflecting a rise in current expenditures by 6 percent a year and a declinein investment expenditures by 1.6 percent a year.

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Table 3: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES

(In millions of current Lempiras)

1966 1970 1973 1974 1975 1976

Current Revenues 123.8 188.1 227.0 273.2 303.9 365.9Current Expenditures 103.6 158.1 188.6 224.6 288.3 /1 352.3 /1

Current Savings 20.2 30.0 38.4 48.6 15.6 13.6

Capital Receipts - - - - - 5.0

Capital Expenditures 26.9 65.6 62.6 100.0 135.0 136.5

Of which: Transfers (5.1) (6.4) (13.1) (18.3) (18.0) (15.9)

Overall Surplus (+) orDeficit (-) -6.7 -35.6 -24.2 -51.4 -119.4 -117.9

Financing 6.7 35.6 24.2 51.4 119.4 117.9

External (net) 4.5 13.6 18.8 46.0 86.8 70.9Domestic (net) 2.2 22.0 5.4 5.4 32.6 47.0

GDP deflator (1966 - 100) 100.0 111.9 117.2 135.0 142.1 154.3

/1 Includes development and pre-investment expenditures for 14.6 millionLempiras in 1975 and 25.9 million Lempiras in 1976.

Source: Table 5.1, Statistical Appendix.

32. Nevertheless, increasing current expenditures have not fully metthe growing needs for public services and the operating requirements ofcapital expenditures. Wages and salaries of the public sector at the inter-mediate level remain low, and hiring of high-caliber technical and adminis-trative personnel is difficult (see Report No. 1165-HO, paras. 135 and 136).The 1977 budget, however, will improve one of these factors by raising theaverage salaries of the highest echelons of the public administration'spersonnel, including the professionals.

The Financial Position of the Rest of the Public Sector

33. Apart from the Central Gov'rnment, the consolidated public sectorin Honduras includes the municipalities, the autonomous institutions and thepublic enterprises. Financial institutions such as BANAFOM, CONADI and theCentral Bank of Honduras are not included.

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34. The municipalities have a small but increasing savings capacitysince their current revenues doubled from 1972 to 1976. As a result, themunicipalities have expanded investment expenditures, particularly in 1976when a significant amount of foreign financing was used (see StatisticalAppendix, Table 5.1). The municipalities of San Pedro Sula and Tegucigalpaaccount for a large share of the municipalities' financial activities.

35. The autonomous institutions' current savings have expanded consi-derably in the last two years and reached about L/28 million in 1976. (SeeStatistical Appendix, Table 5.1.) This improved situation, however, variesamong the institutions. Some of them have shown a significant savings capacitylike the Social Security Institute, the teachers' pension fund, and the publicemployees' pension fund, while others, like the National Agrarian ReformInstitute, the National University and the National Social Welfare Board, haveneeded large Central Government transfers to cover their current operatingexpenditures. Since fixed investments of the social security and pensionfunds are low, these institutions have significant overall surpluses, whichare invested mainly in Government securities.

36. The public enterprises' savings has increased in recent years reach-ing about L/29 million in 1976. The increase originated mainly at theNational Forestry Corporation (COEDEFOR), which was created in 1974 and, to-gether with the National Electric Power Co. (ENEE) and the National PortAuthority (ENP), generates most of the savings of the public enterprises. TheNational Water and Sewerage Service (SANAA), the National Housing Institute(INVA) and the National Railway Company (FNH) have had negative or verysmall savings during the 1970s. The recently created Honduran Banana Corpora-tion (COHBANA) and the National Development Bank Food Marketing Agency(BANASUPRO) registered small operating losses in 1976.

E. The Balance of Payments

37. The balance of payments position of Honduras has been largelydetermined by the exports of a few major commodities (bananas, coffee, lumberand beef). Bananas have been traditionally the main export product althoughtheir share has been declining over the years; it came down from 75 percentof total exports in 1950 to 41 percent in 1965 and to 26 percent in 1976.The declining share is explained by: (i) fluctuating banana productiondue to recurrent hurricane damages; and (ii) increasing export production ofcoffee, lumber, beef, sugar and other products.

38. During 1974-76, the downward trend accelerated as banana productionwas severely damaged by a hurricane 7n 1974 and coffee exports benefited fromfast rising prices. In 1976, althou6h the value of banana exports increasedby 30 percent, coffee exports reached US$100 million, almost equalling thevalue of banana exports. Beef exports increased by 40 percent and miscella-neous exports by 15 percent, but exports of lumber, sugar and petroleumderivatives decreased.

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39. Merchandise imports in dollars had increased at 10.6 percent a yearfrom 1960 to 1973 with some fluctuations; higher growth rates were recordedin 1966 and 1970 and absolute declines in 1971 and 1972. Import growthaccelerated in 1974-76 to 18.8 percent when the price of oil went updramatically and worldwide inflation pushed upward the prices of importedgoods, and when the development and reconstruction programs more than doubledcapital goods imports.

40. The current account deficit and the resource gap have traditionallynot been large, except in years when the production of bananas has been setback by hurricanes, and when, as during 1974-75, the terms of trade deteriorated.As a result, the current account deficit increased significantly in 1974-76.(See Table 4.)

41. Financing the current account deficit was not difficult during1963-73, since only the 1970 deficit was large. The situation has changedduring 1974-76, as the current account deficit widened, requiring significantprivate capital inflows and stepped-up disbursements from development loansand other sources of financing of the public sector to finance the gap andavoid large losses of foreign exchange reserves. (See Table 4.) The largeincrease in private capital inflows is related to the borrowings of CONADIand to the direct borrowings of the private sector in foreign financialmarkets, which had lower interest rates than the domestic market. Recentfavorable developments in the coffee market have significantly increasedgross foreign exchange reserves to about US$151 million and net foreignexchange reserves to US$71 million in 1976. Further increases have takenplace in the first eight months of 1977 as coffee earnings increased.

II. THE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PROGRAM AND THE COUNTRY'SDEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS

42. For the next five years, the Government intends to undertake asignificant development effort through a large public investment program ininfrastructure; an export drive in forestry and tourism; stepped up financialsupport for agricultural development; and a continuation of the agrarianreform to improve the distribution of wealth and income. Carrying out thedevelopment strategy and the public investment program raises the followingneeds:

(i) to analyze thoroughly public investment projects and theirrelative priorities taking into account the limited finan-cial and absorptive capacity of the country;

(ii) to generate a substantial amount of public savings to coverthe local counterpart funds required by the investmentvrogram;

Table 4: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

(in millions of dollars)

1960 1965 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

Exports of goods and services 71.8 138.7 201.R 217.2 235.0 293,8 331.3 343.5 443.1

Merchandise f.o.b. 64.3 128.1 183.4 196.4 212.1 266.6 298.9 307.9 403.5Non-factor services 7.5 10.6 18.4 20.8 22.9 27.2 32.4 35.6 39.6

Imports of goods and services 77.3 136.4 246,6 222.8 226.6 302.1 456.0 452.4 509.0

Merchandise f.o.b. 65.4 113.2 203.4 177.1 176.5 243.6 387.8 377.6 427.0

Non-factor services 11.9 23.2 43.2 45.7 50.2 58.5 68.3 74.8 82.0

Factor Income (net) 8.4 -13.0 -22.6 -24.7 -27.5 -33.2 -13.4 -28.. -56.1_

Transfers (net) 2.6 3.7 6.6 6.8 6.5 7.0 32.5 17.7 13.2

Current Account Balance 5.5 -7.0 -60.8 -23.6 -12.5 -34.6 -105.7 -119.6 -108.9

Private Capital - 8.3 9.5 17.6 2.8 -1.7 14.5 36.9 15.1 43.9

Public Capital -4.4 3.2 28.0 19.5 11.0 9.0 35.1 103.1 82.6

Other -1.4 -- 8.5 7.5 6.9 15.2 14,5 35.5 18.3 5.4

Change in reserves -0.2 2,8 7.7 -5.6 -12.0 -3.4 -1.8 -16.9 -23.0

(- increases)

Net Reserves (end of year) 21.7 35.0 9.0 14.6 26.6 30.0 31.8 48.7 71.7

1/ Includes disbursements on loans channeled to the private sector through financial institutions such as BANAFOM

and the Central Pank of Nondiires.

Source: Table 3.1, Statistica Appendix.

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(iii) to increase± exports (traditional and non-traditional) in orderto raise the rate of growth of GDP while maintaining a soundbalance of payments;

(iv) to intensify the development effort in agriculture in orderto meet the domestic demand for food and raw materials andto generate new exports and thus new sources of economicgrowth.

43. The most serious of these issues is the need for selecting publicinvestment projects carefully. Although public investment is expected toincrease significantly in the next five years, the public investment programfor 1977-81 as initially proposed by CONSUPLANF, went beyond the absorptivecapacity of the economy, particularly in construction. To push the publicinvestments too far may create bottlenecks and increase prices fur inputs ofconstruction materials and for labor. In addition, an excessive investmentlevel will need a larger public sector savings effort. The remaining issuesare closely interrelated; increasing exports of new agricultural products andof traditional agricultural products requires a stepped up development effortin agriculture, as considered in the investment program. The export perfor-mance of the economy and its growth and balance of payments effects shouldnot be a significant issue until 1979, because of the further banana productionrecovery, the present high prices on the coffee market and the expected expan-sion of sugar exports.

A. Growth Prospects and Exports

44. The growth prospects of Honduras during 1977-81 are good. Thereal GDP can be expected to increase more rapidly than in the past, barringnatural disasters, if exports grow at about 8.5 percent a year, public in-vestment at 11 percent a year, and private investment at about 6 percent ayear.

45. During 1977-81, the growth of exports of goods will be closelyrelated to the expansion prospects of bananas, coffee, lumber, sugar, beef,and cotton. Banana exports are expected to recover to 40 million boxes in1977; further increases in production will take place in 1978-81. Coffeeexports are expected to show a large increase in 1978 owing to higher yieldsin the 1977-78 crop because of the increasing use of fertilizers and theCoffee Institute's improvement program; further production increases willtake place by 1980 from the 1974 expansion of the coffee plantations. Inaddition, current coffee prices will be at an all time high in 1977 and mayremain above the 1976 price during 1978-81. 1/ Lumber exports will not

1/ At constant 1975 dollars, the price may remain 11 percent above the1976 price in 1978, and decline to 4 percent below in 1979, 20 percentbelow in 1980 and 25 percent below in 1981. These real prices wouldbe above those of the 1960s and early 1970s.

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increase in volume above the 1976 level until the new lumber mills startproducing in 1979. Sugar exports will be dynamic as the new sugar millsbegin to produce during 1977-79. Beef exports may reflect an ongoing pro-gram for expanding beef production. Cotton exports will also increase asthe area under cultivation expands. In addition, miscellaneous exports areexpected to grow at 14 percent a year (about 7 percent a year in real terms);of this, Central American exports should represent about 50 percent and mayincrease by as much as 20 percent a year. Among the services, tourism isexpected to show dynamism in the 1980s, as facilities expand under the Gov-ernment's programs.

46. Public investment growth of about 11 percent a year would increasethe public sector's share of total investment from 34.3 percent in 1976 toabout two-fifths in 1981, and the share of current GDP from 7.5 percent to10.0 percent. Private investment is expected to be dynamic growing at about6 percent a year in real terms as a result of the favorable climate createdby overall economic conditions and the Government's economic developmentefforts.

47. General Government consumption is expected to expand at a real rateof 7 percent a year, compatible with the operating expenditures of theinvestment program and the planned expansion of government development expen-ditures. This rate of expansion, however, would be lower than in the lasttwo years, when expenditures on goods and services have shown large increases.

B. The Public Investment Program

48. As noted earlier, the Government has increased public investmentsignificantly since 1972, as part of its development efforts. It was ableto do this because of improved government project preparation and increasedexecuting capacity, particularly in infrastructure. These efforts arecontinuing; the Government is appropriating significant resources in theinvestment program 1977-81 for feasibility studies.

49. The initial public investment program of CONSUPLANE contemplatedan average annual investment of about L/511 million for 1977-81, which wasunlikely to be attained taking into account the status of projects, parti-cularly those whose financing is not assured; the time requirements of theproject negotiations and the selection of contractors; and the unavoidableconstruction delays and slippages. It has now been revised downwards to anaverage annual investment of L/383 million slightly above the average annualinvestment of the mission's scaled-down investment program. 1/

50. The public investment program is designed to alleviate the mostsignificant bottlenecks to the country's long-term development process.

1/ The above-mentioned investment figures include forestry investment.

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The emphasis of the program is on: (i) investments in infrastructure, mainlyfor power and transport, which are still crucial given the country's stage ofdevelopment; (ii) investments in productive projects with good export poten-tial, mainly for forestry, agriculture and tourism; and (iii) social invest-ments to raise the living conditions of the poor and their productive capacity.The public investment program represents an ambitious effort to create theconditions for continuous growth during the 1980s at a rate significantlyabove the low 1950-75 GDP growth rate. The size of the investment program isaffected substantially by the large investment (US$413 million) required forthe El Cajon hydroelectric project. El Cajon is an important element of thedevelopment program because it is the most economical means of meeting thedemand for power during the 1980s, reducing the need for fuel imports andgenerating exportable surplus energy to neighboring countries during the first3-4 years of operation of the project.

51. Power, transport and telecommunications, forestry and socialinfrastructure are the priority areas which are receiving the highest publicinvestment allocations. The power investments are the largest. The mainprojects are: the El Cajon Hydroelectric dam, the electrification of theAguan Valley, the Puerto Cortes' thermal plants and the Nispero dam. Theannual amount of expenditures mainly reflects the very large El Cajon project.The transport investments for highways and ports are also large. The mainprojects are: the reconstruction of the Talanga-Juticalpa-Catacamas road; theCOHDEFOR roads; the port facilities at Puerto Castilla and Henecan; and theimprovements of the country's telephone system. Forestry investments byCOHDEFOR 1/ are the third largest component of the investment program with theOlancho forest development as the main project (100 percent external financing).Social infrastructure investments are mainly for health (over 50 percent ofthe social fixed investment); the main projects are: water supply for PuertoCortes, the master plan for Tegucigalpa and water supply for Tela, La Paz,Siguatepeque and Juticalpa. Agricultural fixed investments are spread amongthe Aguan Valley project, a rural development project with local financing,and many small rural projects in the initial years of the investment program;large works are included for 1979-81, such as irrigation of the QuimistanValley, the integrated development and river control of the Sula Valley, andthe integrated development of Florida-La Entrada, the small irrigation project,and the integrated development of the Guayape Valley (Phase II). The financialinvestments in agriculture will be substantial with BANAFOM's credit toagricultural production; in addition, the Instituto Hondureno del Cafe andCOBHANA will support production increases. Tourism investment is mainly forthe Tornasal project.

52. An alternative program aimed at a realistic assessment of a feasibleinvestment level, taking into consideration the absorptive capacity and thefinancial availabilities of the country, has been prepared by the Mission (seeTable 5 below). The scaled-down program includes most of the large projectslisted in paragraph 51 but assuming a two-year postponement of the pulp plantto 1983-85 and a delay of some road projects beyond 1981, so as to accommodatethe El Cajon project.

1/ Excluding the pulp and paper plant, which has been postponed for 1983-85.

Table 5:PUBLIC FIXED INVESTMENT BY SECTOR


Actual Estimate 1978 1979 1980 1981 19821916 1977

A. Infrastructure 115.2 149.2 199.0 252.0 265.0 292.2 326.5

1. Transport 66.1 73.3 112.0 108.0 98.0 92.0 73.02. Power 39.7 41.9 57.0 126.0 160.0 192.0 .241.03. Communications 9.4 34.o 30.0 18.0 7.0 8.2 12.5

B. Productive Sectors 18.2 2j.2 50.0 99.0 88.0 86.o 68.o1. Agriculture 10.3 11.7 19.4 27.0 22.0 25.0 38.02. Forestry 7.3 7.0 26.0 68.o 58.0 41.0 13.03. Tourism 0.6 2.5 4.6 4.0 8.0 20.0 17.0

C. Social Sectors 49.5 62.0 65.9 61.3 55.3 65.2 57.01. Education 10.8 17.2 16.6 10.3 9.6 11.1 12.02. Health 11.7 12.0 15.0 19.0 15.0 11.0 10.03. Water and sewerage 15.0 15.0 19.0 19.0 20.0 26.0 18.04. Housing 2.0 5.5 6.o 5.0 5.0 11.0 10.05. Urban development 10.0 12.3 9.3 8.o 5.7 6.1 7.0

Total 182.9 232.4 314.9 412.3 408.3 443.4 451.5GDP deflator (1976=100)100.0 110.0 117.7 125.9 134.8 144.2 154.3

Total(at 1976 prices) 182.9 211.3 267.5 327.5 302.9 307.5 292.6

Source: Mission estimates.

- 18 -

53. The scaled-down public investment program is expected to increasefixed investment to about 450 million current lempiras by 1981. The annualaverage level of investment is estimated at 362 million lempiras with grossforeign financing averaging about 65 percent of the total costs. The programwould raise public investment to about 10 percent of current GDP and itsshare of total investment to about 40 percent by 1981. Apart from constructionbottlenecks, fiscal and external financing constraints will probably not allowthe Government to undertake higher public investment levels. Already thescaled-down program would require a very significant revenue effort to increasepublic savings by about 50 million lempiras by 1981, thereby raising the taxburden to about 15 percent of GDP by 1981 or increase the internal savingsgeneration of the public enterprises. Several possibilities for raising t¢.esare presented in paragraph 60. To the extent that the high investment levelis attributable to the essentially self-liquidating El Cajon project, anappropriate alternative would be the issue of bonds in the domestic market toreduce excess liquidity brought about by increasing coffee earnings.

C. Public Sector Finances and Public Savings Prospects

54. Given the large increase in public investment, additional effortswill be required in the next five years to: (i) expand the savings capacityof the public sector and generate the required local counterpart funds;(ii) maintain the deficit of the public sector at a level compatible withmonetary and price stability.

55. Public savings have two main components: the Central Governmentsavings and the public enterprises savings. 1/ The savings of the CentralGovernment will increase significantly in 1977 even in the absence of new taxreforms as a result of the increased collections from the coffee export tax.Thereafter, they are likely to fluctuate, unless new fiscal reforms areenacted, at about the same level until 1981. The savings of public enter-prises are expected to increase, particularly in 1977 and 1978, from tariffand price revisions, and expanded operations.

56. During 1977-81, the revenue projections of the existing tax systemhinge on the export tax revenues from increased exports of coffee and bananas,on the rise of domestic tax receipts from the expanding economic activities,and on the increasing revenues from the 1975 tax reform. Although decliningfrom the 1977 level, expected coffee prices together with increased coffeeproduction will bring about substantial revenues. The banana export tax isscheduled to increase to one lempira per box by 1979 as the exported production

1/ The autonomous institutions as a group have also significant savingsbut mostly because of large Central Government transfers to INA, UNAH andJNBS. (See para. 35.)

- 19 -

returns to normal levels. In 1977, revenues from production taxes areexpected to rise substantially; afterwards these revenues will increase at alower rate than monetary GDP (assuming a 7 percent annual price increase).Ihis behavior is explained by the per unit excise taxes on beer, liquor,sugar, sodas and petroleum derivatives, so that revenues only go up withproduction increases. Import taxes are expected to be dynamic in the short-runas imports grow significantly. On these assumptions, total tax receipts ofthe Central Government would rise from 311 million lempiras in 1976 to about63.5 million lempiras in 1981. (See Table 6.) The fiscal burden will increaseto about 13.7 percent in 1981, above the 1976 level but still insufficient tofinance the investment program. (see para. 60.)

57. The current expenditures of the Central Government increased rapidlyin 1976 (see para. 31). This rate of increase cannot be sustained. Since theinvestment program will require qualified personnel and additional operatingexpenditures, it is essential that all increases in total current expendituresbe closely scrutinized in order to slow down the growth of less essentialcurrent expenditures.

58. During 1977-81, the savings of public enterprises will depend larg-ely on the savings performance of ENP, ENEE and COHDEFOR. ENP implemented atariff increase in 1977 and is expected to make further adjustments to itstariff structure in 1978; as a result, ENP's present net earnings are expectedto double towards 1981. ENEE is expected to introduce tariff revisions towards1979 in order to increase its savings capacity and contribute significantlyto the finance of its expansion program, which includes El Cajon. The increaseof COHDEFOR's net earnings will depend largely on the timely construction ofits new sawmills and other production facilities.

59. The balance of the public sector's savings will be generated mostlyby the municipalities and by the autonomous institutions. Savings of themunicipalities are not expected to be large but will finance a significantshare of urban development projects. Savings of the autonomous institutions,mainly the social security and pension funds, would be large and will offsetthe impact on aggregate public finances of increasing Central Governmenttransfers to INA, UNAH and JNBS.

60. The increased revenues of the Central Government combined with aslow down in the growth of the current expenditures should generate the savingsrequired by the public investment program in 1977 and 1978 (see Table 7 below).Thereafter, new tax measures, higher savings of public enterprises or domesticbond issues will be required as public investment is expanded. For this pur-pose, there are several tax reform possibilities. Among them: (i) tighteningadministrative procedures to reduce tax evasion, mainly for direct taxes andimport taxes; (ii) introducing consumption taxes on selected items; (iii)transforming the specific rate taxes on beer, liquor and other products intoad-valorem taxes to avoid the deterioration of real revenues by inflation;(iv) revising income taxation; (v) increasing the value-added tax rate; (vi)tightening the administration of fiscal exemptions; and (vii) raising gasolinetaxes and vehicle registrations to reflect user's cost savings brought aboutby the improved road network.

- 20 -

Table 6: CURRENT REVENUES OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

(In million Lempiras)

Actual Estimated Prolected Rate of Growth1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1976-81

Tax Revenues 311.0 423.7 478 526 575 635 15.3

Taxes on Income andProperty 76.2 96.o 108 123 138 155 15.2

Taxes on DomesticTransactions 105.1 125.3 142 158 176 191 12.7

Taxes on Exports 49.1 90.4 99 96 90 93 13.6

Taxes on Imports 80.4 112.0 129 149 171 196 19.5

Non-tax Revenues 54.9 33.2 39 42 43 45 -3.9

Total Current Revenues 365.9 456.9 517 568 618 680 13.2

GDP deflator(1976=100) 100.0 110.0 117.7 125.9 134.8 144.2 7.6

Total Current Revenues(at constant prices) 365.9 415.4 439 451 458 471 '.2

Tax burden 1/ 12.8 13.2 13.2 14.5 14.0 13.7 -

1/ Existing tax system.


Table 7': PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS

(Millions of current Lempiras)

A c t u a 1 Estimate

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981

Central Government

Current revenues 1/303.9 365.9 456.9 517.3 568.2 617.9 680.4

Less: current expenditures- 288.3 352.3 390.0 454.0 498.5 561.5 616.0Current savings 15.6 13.6 66,9 63.3 69.7 56.4 64.4Savings of the rest of

the Public Sector 45.6 57.7 70.0 82. 86.6 91.0 95.5Savings of the Public Sector 61.2 71.3 136.9 145.8 156.3 147.4 159.9

Capital revenues 2.1 5.0 6.o 6.o 7.0 7.0 8.0

Resources availablke 63.3 76.3 142.9 151.8 163.3 154.4 167.9

Capital Expenditures 180.2 205.3 254.0 339.9 437.3 435.3 473.4Fixed investment (152,8) (182.9) (232.4) (314.9) (412.3) (408.3) (443.4)

Overall Surplus(+) or

Deficit (-) -116.9 -129.0 -111.1 -188.1 -274.0 _28o.9 -305.5

External Financing (net) 111.1 120.3 113.5 163.8 225.2 216.3 232.7Disbursements 2/ 126.4 138.6 151.1 203.0 2668 290.3Existing Debt (Dec/31/76)(126.4) (138.6) (129.4) (92.8) (72.2) (45.6) (25.6)New Debt (-) (-) (21.7) (110.2) (194.6) (218.1) (264.7)Amortization -15.3 -18.3 -37.6 -39.2 -41.6 -47.4 -57.6

Domestic Financing(net) 5.8 8.7 -12.4 i4, 1 '9 14.6

New Tax or other RevenueMeasures _ _10.0 30.0 50.0

Venezuelan Oil Fund 10.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

GDP deflator(1976=l00) 92.1 100.0 110.0 117.7 125.9 134.8 144.2

1/ Includes development expenditures.9/ Excludes disbursements on loans channeled through financial institutions such as BANAFOM,the Central Bank of

Honduras and CONADI.Source: Mission estimates.

- 22 -

D. Balance of Payments and Creditworthiness

61. During 1977-81, the following main balance of payments developmentscan be expected: (i) a substantial increase in exports and (ii) a large in-crease of imports due to the rapid rise of public investment. In 1977, thebalance of payments position should improve significantly as larger coffeeand banana export earnings from this year's record coffee prices and theon-going recuperation of banana production substantially reduce the deficiton current account and significantly increase foreign exchange reserves.Thereafter, as the import needs of the economy in part related to a largepublic investment program expand, the current account is expected to showan increasing deficit (see Table 8 below), and large capital inflows willbe needed.

62. During 1977-81, imports of goods and services can be expected togrow at 14 percent a year if the public investment program is executed asprojected in paragraph 52, private investment expands as expected (see para.46) and international inflation is about 7 percent a year. Capital goodsimports are expected to grow at the same pace as total fixed investment.Intermediate goods and consumer goods imports are expected to be dynamic asthe economy grows. (See Statistical Appendix, Table 3.6.)

63. During 1977-81, to sustain a satisfactory real growth rate of GDP,to increase the net international reserves to over two months of imports, andto finance the level of the public investment program as outlined in thisreport (see para. 53), Honduras will require gross official external disburse-ments at an average rate of US$139 million a year, and net disbursements atan average of US$110 million a year. In addition to an average of US$49million disbursements from existing commitments, average disbursements ofUS$90 million a year from new commitments will be required. Furthermore, theVenezuelan Economic Cooperation Agreement will provide about US$45 millionfor local costs in 1977-81, primarily for forest, ports and hydroelectricdevelopment. Given Honduras' poverty, the prospects are that official lenderswill provide funds on very soft terms (the assumed averages for official loansare 5.75 percent interest rate, 26 years maturity and 6 years grace period).Disbursements from official commitments would average about two-thirds of thetotal disbursements. Under these conditions, the debt service ratio wouldincrease from 6.6 percent in 1976 to about 9.4 percent by 1981 and to about13.4 percent by 1985. If, on the other hand, Honduras does not obtain sub-stantial official external financing in concessionary terms, the debt serviceratio would probably increase to about 16 percent by 1985.

E. Financial Viability of the Investment Program

64. The financial viability of the scaled-down investment program(including the large hydroelectric project at El Cajon) depends heavily onthe domestic savings effort and on the ability of the Government to raisesubstantial external financing on concessionary terms. Without a consider-able amount of highly concessionary lending (as outlined in para. 63), it will

Table 8: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS PROJECTIONS

(In millions of US dollars)

Estimate P r o j e c t i o n s1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

Exports of Goods and Non-factor services 343.5 443.1 617.5 634.2 679.5 758.1 864.7 973.6Merchandise f.o.b. 307.9 403.5 569.5 583.9 621.7 691.6 788.3 888.6Non-factor services 35.6 39.6 48.0 50.3 57.8 66.5 76.4 85.0

Imports of Goods and Non-factorservices 452.4 509.0 615.0 690.1 783.7 _ 869.2 985.5 1096.5

Merchandise f.o.b. 377.6 427.0 525.0 591.1 675.7 751.9 854.1 937.8Non-factor services 74.8 82.0 90.0 99.0 108.0 117.3 131.4 158.7

Resource Gap -108.9 2.5 -55.9 -10,4.2 -111.1 -120.8 -122.9

Factor Income (net) -28.3 -56.1 -60.0 -66.o -80.0 -90.0 -98.0 -105.0

Net Interest Payments -10.1 -15.1 -18.7 -23.0 -28.7 -36.6 -42.5 -48.7Direct Investment Income -16.9 -41.0 -41.3 -43.0 -51.3 -53.4 -55.5 -56.3Other -1.3 - - - - - - -

Transfers (net) 17.7 13.2 15.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 20.0 23.0

Current Account Balance -119.6 -108.9 -42.5 -107.9 -169.2 -185.1 -198.8 -20o4.9

Private Capital 15.1 43.9 34.0 37.0 4o.o 48.o 55.0 60.0

Public Capital 103.1 82.6 91.3 106.1 139.7 133.7 143.2 150.5

Long-termA! 92.8 70.9 79.0 92.3 127.1 122.2 132.2 143.5Disbursements (99.2) (84.2) (100.5) (117.7) (154.5) (153.5) (170.7) (186.0)Amortizations (-6.4) (-13.3) (-21.5) (-25.4) (-27.4) (-31.3) (-38.5) f42.5)

Other M and L (net) 10.3 11.7 12.3 13.8 12.6 11.5 11.0 7.0Other 18&3 9.4 - - - - -

Change in reserves (- increase) -16.9 -23.0 -82.8 -35.2 -10.5 3.4 o.6 - 5.6Net reserves (end of year) 48.7 '71.7 154.5 18(.7 20n.2 110KR lQh.2 201,8

1/ Includes disbursements on loans channeled to the private sector through financial institutions such asBANAFOM and the Central Bank of Honduras.


- 24 -

be extremely difficult for Honduras to carry out the scaled-down investmentprogram, both because of the higher debt service ratio this would entail andof the additional strain this debt service would put on public revenues. Forthe same reasons, it will be important that excess energy generated by ElCajon be sold to neighboring countries for the initial years of the project'soperation.

65. Financing the scaled-down investment program will require an evenlarger domestic fiscal effort, and lead to a higher external debt service thanprojected in this report, if any of the following developments occur:

(i) a lower growth of exports values and GDP, because of lowercoffee prices and banana export volumes than now expected;this could raise the debt service (see Table 9 below);

(ii) a higher rate of growth of imports than projected in theabsence of the government revenue measures outlined inparagraph 60, which would curtail the demand for imports;these additional imports could require additional externalfinancing for the balance of payments;

(iii) a cost overrun in the construction of El Cajon, beyondnormal contingency allowances as sometimes occurs inprojects of this kind; and

(iv) a lower than projected increase in current savings.

Because of these possibilities, it is advisable for the Government of Hondurasto get the maximum amount of concessionary funds for the financing of El Cajon.

- 25-

Table 9: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC SECTORSAVINGS AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

Estimate P r o_j e c t i o n s1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1985

A. Public Sector (In millions of Lempiras)

1. Projected

Savings of the CentralGovernment 67 63 70 56 64

Savings of the rest ofthe Public Sector 70 83 87 91 96

Total savings 137 146 157 147 160Additional domestic

savings - - 10 30 502. Alternative 1 -



Total savings 137 129 144 136 150

Additional domesticresources needed - 17 23. 41 60

3. Alternative 2 -



Total savings L37 127 12Q 104 134Additional domestic

resources needed - 19 38 73 76B. Balance of Payments (In millions of dollars)

1. Projected

Current Account Balance 143 -108 -169 -185 -1QQDebt Service Ratio 6.4 7.5 8.3 9.0 9.4 13.4

2. Alternative 1 i/

Current Account Balance -43 -169 -231 -239 -272Debt Service Ratio 6.4 8.0 8.8 9.4 12.9 15.7

3. Alternative 2 2Current Account Balance 43_ -148 -248 -316 -286Debt Service Ratio 6.4 8.o 9.4 11.0 12.0 1S.9

1/ Assumptions: coffee prices 20 percent lower than projected for 1978- 1; imports ofintermediate goods and consumer goods at a GDP elasticity of 1.5.

2/ Assumptions: coffee prices 2n percent lover than projected for l97B-81; the volumeof banana exports lowered ir - 1980, and 1981 to the 1974, 1975 and 1976 figures,


STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table No.I. POPULATION

1.1 Mid-Year Population and its Growth

II. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

2.1 Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure, 1967-76.2.2 Gross Domestic Product by Expenditures, 1967-76.2.3 Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Origin 1970-76.2.4 Investment by Type and Sector, 1967-76.2.5 Selected National Accounts Projections, 1977-82.

III. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND EXTERNAL TRADE

3.1 Balance of Payments, 1967-76.3.2 Value, Volume and Unit Value of Principal Exports, 1967-76.3.3 Summary of Merchandise Imports, 1967-76.3.4 Balance of Payments Projections,1977-8 2.3.5 Export Projections, 1977-82.3.6 Imports of Goods and Services, 1977-82.

IV. EXTERNAL DEBT

4.1 External Public Debt Outstanding as of Dec. 31,1976 byCreditor; Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency and Goods.

4.2 Service Payments, Commitments, Disbursements and OutstandingAmounts of External Public Debt; Debt Repayable in ForeignCurrency.

4.3 External Public Debt Outstanding as of Dec.31, 1976, byCreditor; Debt Repayable in Local Currency.

4.4 Service Payments, Commitments, Disbursements and OutstandingAmounts of External Public Debt; Debt Repayable in LocalCurrency.

V. PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCES

5.1 Public Sector Operations, 1967-76.5.2 Central Government Current Revenue, 1967-76.5.3 Central Government Current Revenue, Percentages, 1967-76.5.4 Central Government Expenditure by Economic Classification, 1967-76.5.5 Summary of Public Sector Intra-Sectoral Transfers.5.6 Public Sector Operations' Projections, 1975-81.5.7 Public Fixed Investment by Sector, 1976-82.

-2-

Table No.

VI. MONEY AND CREDIT

6.1 Summary Accounts of the Banking System, 1967-76.6.2 Banking System Distribution of New Loans, 1967-76.6.3 Distribution of Bank Credit to the Private Sector, 1967-76.

VII. AGRICULTURE

7.1 Agricultural Production, Selected Products, 1968-77.

VIII. PRICES

8.1 General Price Index by Groups, 1967-76.

Table 1.1: HONDURAS: MID-YEAR POPULATIONvAND ITS GROWTH

Year Mid-Year Population Annual Growth(thousands) Rate (%)

1925 863.0

1930 949.01935 1,043.0 1.91940 1,9147.019h5 1,262.1

1950 1,h429.3 2.5

1951 1,473.41952 1,518.91953 1,565.81954 1, 614.21955 1,664.1 3.11956 1,715.51957 1,768.41958 1,823.11959 1,879.41960 1,937.41961 1,995.5

1962 2,,048.51963 2,102.91964 2,158.81965 2,216.11966 2,274.91967 2,335.4 2.71968 2,397.41969 2,461.01970 2,526.41971 2,593.51972 2,662.41973 2,733.11974 2,805.61975 2,881.4

1976 2,959.1

1/ These figures do not reflect the decrease in population which resultedfrom the Honduras-El Salvador war in 1969.

Source: CELADE, Demographic Bulletiris. UN Demographic Yearbook; Honduras,Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos: Cifras Preliminares CensoNacional de Poblaci6n y Vivienda, Enero, 1975; and mission estimates.

Table 2.1:HONDURAS; GROSS DOMESTIC PRODOCT BY EXPENDITURE, 1967-76

(MILLIONS OF CURRENT LEMPIRAS)

-----------------------------------------------------------__----------------__-----------------------------------------------------

D I S T R I 8 U T I O NItEM

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 t973 1974 1975 1976…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

CONSUMPTION 985.3 1 069.9 1 115.8 1 212.7 1 278.2 1 354.1 1 486.6 1 726.9 1 891.3 2 111.6…-_ _ _ _ _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -PRIVATE 865.1 941.1 967.3 1 046.5 1 103.6 1 166.0 1 300.0 1 488.8 1 613.0 1 764.6GENERAL GOV'T 120.2 128.8 148.5 166.2 174.6 188.1 186.6 240.1 278.3 347.0

GROSS DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 235.1 239.3 258.8 312.5 249.9 263.4 329.8 519.3 445.3 456.3…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ _ - _ _ _ _

FIXED 213.3 226.7 244.5 273.2 255.7 248.8 309.7 400.2 456.2 533.3CHANGE IN STOCKS 21.8 12.6 14.3 39.3 -5.8 14.6 20.1 119.1 -10.9 -77.0

RESOURCE BALANCE -24.2 -15.6 -36.6 -95.6 -12.6 16.8 -18.4 -254.2 -225.5 -137.0

EXPORT OF GOODS & NFS 341.2 393.4 373.8 393.0 436.0 472.8 589.0 654.0 675.0 882.0IMPORT OF GOODS & NFS 365.4 409.0 412.4 488.6 448.6 456.0 607.4 908.2 900.5 1019.0GOP AT'MARKET PRICES 1 196.2 1 293.6 1 336.0 1 429.6 i 515.5 1 634.3 1 798.0 1 994.0 2 111.1 2430.9…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - -

NET FACTOR INCOME -42.4 -46.2 -37.2 -45.2 -49.4 -55.0 -66-4 -22.7 -51.0 -107.0GNP AT MARKET PRICES 1 153.8 1 247.4 1 293.8 1 384.4 1 466.1 1 579.3 1 731.6 1 971.3 2 060.1 2323.9

SOURCE; CENTRAL BANK

Table 2.2:HONDURAS; GROSS DCMESTIC PRODUCT BY EXPENDITURE,

(MILLIONS OF 1966 LEMPIRAS)

O I S T R I B U T I O ITEME ---------------------___-_____-________________________________________________________________

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1914 1975 1976

CGNSUMPTIGN 939.5 95S.5 1 025.7 1 041.5 1 086.7 .1 117.3 1 133.0 1 208.1 1 227.7 1 262.7 t 357.0…__ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _--__ _ -_ _ - - - - -_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

PRIVATE 825.6 843.3 S07.4 910.2 948.0 981.2 994.8 1 075.4 1 071.6 1 093.5 1 155.0GEN9ERAL GCjVT 113.9 116.2 118.3 131.3 138.7 136.1 138.2 132.7 156.1 169.2 202,0

GROSS DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 176.4 229.5 229.2 231.7 275.9 215.5 211.9 254.5 347.2 264.3 251,0

FIXED 159.5 208.4 217.2 218.4 240.5 220.6 199.4 238.2 257.2 272.2 298.0CHANGE IN STOCKS 16.9 21.1 12.0 13.3 35.4 -5.1 12.5 16.3 90.0 -7.9 - 47.0

RESOURCE BALANCE -16.0 -29.5 -22.6 -30.7 -74.3 0.2 37.6 -9.6 -97.4 -38.5 -33.0…__ _ _ _ _ _ -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -EXPORT OF GOODS C NFS 314.8 338.5 381.2 358.4 356.6 387.6 402.7 411.3 420.0 453.6 474.0IMPORT OF GOODS & NFS 330.8 368.0 403.8 389.1 430.9 387.4 365.1 420.9 517.4 492.1 507.0

GOP AT MARKET PRICES 1 099.9 1 15S.5 1 232.3 1 242.5 1 288.3 1 333.0 1 382.5 1 453.0 1 477.5 1 488.5 1 575.0

NET FACTOR INCOME -31.0 -42.8 -45.7 -34.8 -39.5 -42.2 -43.1 -44.6 -12.9 -29.6 -52.0

GNP AT MARKET PRICES 1 068.9 1 116.7 1 186.6 1 207.7 1 248.8 1 290.8 1 339.4 1 408.4 1 464.6 1 458.9 1 523.0:====5== :======== ========B========A======== ====== =-N=== =====K= ====== =t=== ==== ====

SOURCE; CENTh,AL BANK

Table 2.3: HONDURAS: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN

(In millions of Lempiras)

1970 1971 1972 1973 197L 1975 1976

CU?RENT PRICES

Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing andHunting 429 461 499 563 578 562 639

Mining 30 228 30 44 64 53 59Manufacturing 181 198 218 244 280 314 375Construction 65 62 69 73 96 108 128Electricity, Gas and Water 18 20 23 27 27 36 40Transport and Telecommunications 86 92 101 114 124 138 157Trade 171 175 184 197 216 242 278Banking, Insurance and Real Estate 37 41 47 53 64 68 79Ownership of Dwellings 94 101 109 118 127 137 148Public Administration and Defense 44 49 62 58 62 68 79Services 136 146 155 153 157 166 196GDP at Factor Cost 1,291 1,373 1,497 1.644 1,795 1,892 2,178Indirect Taxes (net) 139 143 151 169 200 220 253GDP at Market Prices 1,430 1,516 1,648 1,313 1,995 2,112 2,431

CONSTANT PRICES (1966 = 100)

Agriculture, Dorestry, Fishing andHunting 402 441 461 468 427 401 417

Mining 26 24 26 34 45 33 34Manufacturing 154 178 173 192 203 215 232Construction 54 50 53 58 72 76 8CElectricity, Gas and Water 13 13 14 15 1c 17 22Transport and Telecommunications 71 75 79 83 8h 84 90Trade 158 158 165 166 174 17c 1&EBanking, Insurance and Real Estate 27 30 32 3h 38 39 h3Ownership of Dwellings 83 87 91 96 100 105 10°Public Administration and Defense 36 35 38 43 42 45 50Services 129 135 146 143 129 138 143GDP at Factor Cost 1,153 1,226 1,278 1,332 1,330 1,329 1,407Indirect Taxes (net) 125 125 128 137 1L8 157 168GDP at Market Prices 1,278 1,351 1,406 1,469 1,476 1,486 1,575

p/ Preliminary.

Source: Central Bank of Honduras.

Table 2.4 HONDURAS; INVESTMENT BY TYPE AND SECTOR, 1967-T6(MILLIONS OF CURRENT LEMPIRAS)

---------------------------------------------------- ------…------------

01 5 T R I B U T I O NITEM ------------------------------------ _-----__------_----_-----_- --- ---____ _-_ _-__--1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

INVESTMENT 235.1 239.3 258.8 312.5 249.9 255.8 343.1 519.3 445.3 456.3

CHANGE IN STOCKS 21.8 12.6 14.3 39.3 -5.8 7.0 20-1 119.1 -10.9GROSS FIXED INVESTMENT 213.3 226.7 244.5 273.2 255.7 248.8 323.0 400.2 456.2 533.3BY TYPEBUILDINGS 61.8 77.5 62.o 66.3 69.3 81.3 82.9 109.3 125.1 145.2MACHINERY 54.7 50.7 67.1 77.3 70.4 55.4 157.1 181.9 212.5 246.1OTHER CONSTRUCTION 96.8 98.5 115.4 129.6 116.0 112.1 83.0 109.0 118.6 142.0

BY SECTORPRIVATE SECTOR 173.1 178.4 159.1 17B.8 184.8 192.9 233.0 268.2 303.4 350.4PUBLIC SECTOR 40.2 48.3 85.4 94.4 70.9 55.9 90.0 132.0 152.8 182.9

INVElTMENT FINANCING 235.1 239.3 258.8 312.5 249.9 255.8 343.0 519.3 445.3 456.3=5= …=== =2s===== ====== ============= ====== ========- …========= s-==

GROSS NATIONAL SAVING 168.5 177.5 183.0 171.7 167.9 217.8 259.6 242.9 170.5 212.1

GENERAL GOV'T SAVING 36.4 42.2 30.6 33.7 18.8 7.7 43.1 46.5 38.9 42.0PUBLIC CORP. SAVING - - - 12.2 15.7 11.4 15.7 28.9 22.3 29.3PRIVATE SAVING 132.1 135.3 152.4 125.8 153.4 198.7 200.8 167.5 109.3 i4o.8CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCEl/ 66.6 61.8 75.8 140.8 62.0 38.0 83.4 276.4 274.8 24h.2

NET EXPORT OF GOODS&NFS -24.2 -15.6 -38.6 -95.6 -12.6 15.8 -23.2 -253.4 -219.8 -132.0NET FACTOR INCOME -42.4 -46.2 -37.2 -45.2 -49.4 -53.8 -60.2 -23.0 -55.0 -112.2

SOURCE; CENTRAL BANK OF HONDURAS1/ EXCLUDING TRANSFERS

Table 2.5: HONDURAS: SELECTED NATIONAL ACCOUNTS PROJECTIONS

(millions of constant 1975 lempiras)

Actual Estimate Projections

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

Gross Domestic Product 2,112 2,238 2,410 2,579 2,734 2,870 3,014 3,165Terms of Trade Adjustment - 85 279 107 53 29 33 26Gross Domestic Income 2,112 2,324 2,689 2,6B6 2,787 2,899 3,047 3,191

Imports of Goods and NFS 905 976 1,111 1,150 1,223 1,259 1,335 1,391Exports of Goods and NFS

(import capacity) 687 850 1,115 1,057 1,060 1,098 1,172 1,236Resource Gap (- surplus) 219 126 _ 4 93 163 161 163 155

Consumption Expenditures 1,886 2,012 2,202 2,239 2,331 2,446 2,569 2,703Investment Expenditures 445 437 1183 540 619 614 641 643Domestic Savings 226 311 487 1447 456 453 478 488


Page 1 of 2

Table 3.1:HONDURAS: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1967-76fMI I IynNS nF US$)

----------------------------------------------------------------------__-----__---------- -----------------------------------------

D I S T R I B U T I O NITEM - - - - - - - - --- - - - ---- - - - - - - - - --- - - - - -- - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - --- - - - -- - - - - --- - - - - -- - - - -- - - - - --- - - - - -- - - - --1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976…-- - - - - - - - -- - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - -- - - - -- - - - - --- - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - -_ _-- - - - - - -_ _-- -- - - - - - -- - - - -- - - - - -- - - -…-- - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - - -- - - - - -

CURRENT ACCOUNT

EXPORTS (GOODS & NFS) 170.6 196.7 186.9 201.8 217.2 235.0 293.8 331.3 343.5 443.1MERCHANDISE (FOB) 155.8 160.8 170.7 183.4 196.4 212.1 266.6 298.9 307.9 403.5NON-FACTOR SERVICES 14.8 15.9 16.2 18.4 20.8 22.9 27.2 32.4 35.6 39.6

IMPORTS (GOODS & NfS) 182.7 204.5 206.2 :246.6 222.8 226.6 302.1 456.0 452.4 509.0MERCHANDISE (FOB) 152.0 169.4 169.7 203.4 177.1 176.5 243.6 387.8 377.6 427.0NON-FACTOR SERVICES 30.7 35.1 36.5 43.2 45.7 50.2 58.5 68.3 74.8 82.0

RESOURCE BALANCE -12.1 -7.8 -19.3 -44.8 -5.6 8.5 -- 8.3 -124.7 -108.9 -66.0

FACOTR SERVICE INCOME (NET) -21.2 -23.1 -18.6 -22.6 -24.7 -27.5 -- 33.2 -13.4 -28.3 -56.1RECEIPTS 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 3.9 4.1 5.8 8.8PAYMENTS 23.0 25.2 21.3 24.9 27.0 29 9 37.1 17.5 34.1 64.9

NET TRANSFERS 4.7 6.2 7.3 6.6 6.8 6.5 7.0 32.5 17.7 13.2…__ _ _ _…_ _ - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -28.6 -24.7 -30.6 _. 60.8 -23.6 -12.5 -34.6 -105.7 -119.6 -108.9DSfb=== =Cfl=== ========= =====2== ====== === ==== =s= ==5== ==== == S=ssC====s SS=--USZCAPITAL ACCOUNT

PRIVATE SECTOR (NET) 10.2 19.5 9.2 17.6 2.8 -1.7 14.5 36.9 15.1 43.0…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _DIRECT INVESTMENT 8.7 14.4 8.9 8.4 7.4 3.0 6.6 -1.2 10.4 7.6LONG TERM LOANS,ETC. 0.9 -0.2 0.2 4.2 4.5 5.4 7.8 8.0 10.0 12.0SHORT TERM 0.6 5.3 0.1 .5.0 -9.1 -10.1 0.1 30.1 -5.3 24.3PUBLIC SECTOR 10.2 9.6 19.2 28.0 19.5 11.0 9.0 35.1 103.1 82.6_________ --------- --------- ------ ---r---------------~~ -------- ~ ----- ~~-~ --------- ---------LONG TERM 1/ 4.3 8.4 14.4 25.6 12.2 16.3 12.5 37.8 92.8 70.9DISBURSEMENTS 6.5 10.4 17.0 28.7 15.9 20.2 18.1 43.7 99.2 84.2AMORTIZATION 2.2 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.9 5.6 5.9 6.4 13.3OTHER CAPITAL 5.9 1.2 4.8 2.4 7.3 -5.3 -3.5 -2.7 10.3 11.7

Page 2 of 2

Table 3.1: HONDURAS; BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1967-76IMli i TNS NfF n JS 1

D I S T R I B U T I O NITEM__

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

BANKING SYSTEM (NET) 2.3 5.3 2.3 .0.1 4.7 8.9 12.5 2.6 2.2 6.5

IMF TRANSACTIONS -5.0 - -2.5 6.3 - - -7.5 27.7 - _

*ALLOCATION OF SDR'S - - - 3.2 1.6 3,4 1.1 - -

CAP'L N.E.I.&ERRORS&CMISS - 2.4 -3.4 -8.4 0.6 3.0 8.4 5.3 16.1 -1.1

CHANGE IN RESERVES 10.8 -12.1 5.8 14.0 -5.6 -12.0 -3.4 -1.9 -16.9 -23.0

CAPITAL ACCOUNT BALANCE 28.5 24.7 30.6 60.8 23.6 12.5 34.6 105.7 119.6 108.9

1/ Includes disbursements on loans chAnneled to the private sector through financial institutions, such as BANAFOMand the Central Bank of Honduras.

Source: Central Bank of Honduras,

Table 3.2: JHONDURAS; VALUE, VOLUME & UNIT VALUE OF PRINCIPAL EXPORTS, 1967-76(VALUE IN MILLIONS OF US DOLLARS. VOLUME IN METRIC TONS AND UNIT VALUE IN US DOLLARS)

---------------------------------------------------------------- __-----------__--------------------------------------------------

D I S T R I B U T I O NI T EM - - -- - - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - --- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --- - - - -- - - - - --- - - - - -- - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - --- - - - --

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976…-- - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - --- - - - --- -- - - -- - - --- - - - - -- -_ _ - - - - - - - -_ _ - -_ -_ - - -_ -_ - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - --- - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - -_ -_ - -_ _

BANANASVALUE 78.5 79.7 74.1 75.3 95.7 90.7 94.0 79.7 61.5 106.7VOLUME 767.3 816.5 772.4 738.5 970.8 847.7 825.6 651.6 368.4 609.8UNIT VALUE 102.3 97.6 95.9 102.0 98.6 107.0 113.9 122.3 166.9 175.0

COFFEEVALUE 14.0 20.8 18.5 25.9 23.3 27.3 47.8 43.9 56.9 100.3VOLUME 17.0 26.0 25.0 26.0 25.1 32.7 39.8 30.8 48.5 43.1UNIT VALUE 823.5 800.0 740.0 996.2 928.3 834.9 1 201.0 1 425.3 1 173.2 2 327-.

LUMBER

VALUE 12.2 14.4 15.3 16.2 19.2 27.1 39.1 40.7 38.8 38.0VOLUME 332.0 395.0 380.0 356.0 402.0 491.0 591.0 479.0 396.0 364.0UNIT VALUE 36.7 36.5 40.3 45.5 47.8 55.2 66.2 85.0 98.0 104.5

8gEF

VALUE 4.3 4.7 9.0 9.7 12.5 16.1 21.9 16.8 18.3 25.6VOLUME 6.6 6.9 11.6 12.4 15.3 18.1 19.8 13.1 16.7 20.7UNIT VALUE 651.5 683.2 775.9 782.3 817.0 889.5 1 106.1 1 282.4 1 095.8 1 236.7

SUGARVALUE 1.2 1.4 0.3 1.2 1.6 2.0 - 4.5 7.0 2.2VOLUME 9.7 10.3 2.0 9.8 10.0 12.1 - 7.5 10.1 6.7UNIT VALUE 123.7 135.9 150.0 122.4 160.0 165.3 - 600.0 693.1 328.4

PETROLEUM DERIVATIVES 1.lVALUE - 2.1 4.8 6.2 3.0 3.4 4.1 14.5 12.3 16.3VOLUME - 107.3 272.2 356.7 212.5 216.6 222.1 214.0 180.9UNIT VALUE - 19.6 17.6 17.4 14.1 15.7 18.5 67.8 68.0

ALL OTHERSVALUE 45.6 57.7 48.7 49.0 41.1 445.5 59.7 98.8 113.1 129.6

TOTAL MERCHANDISE EXPORTs l/ 155.8 180.8 170.7 183.4 196.4 212.1 266.6 298.9 307.9 403.5a=====-= ====~=S= ====5==g tC=S=== sg=C=== t'=in=±== f==5== =s-== ==z==5l=- 53 L3

233

1/ Including non-monetary gold.

Source: Central Bank and Mission estimates.

Page 1 of 2

Table 3.3:HONDURAS; SUMMARY OF MERCHANDISE IMPORTS. 1967-76(MTLLInNrN OF Uls 0a0iARSI

D I S T R I B U T I O NITEM - -------- - ---------------------------------------------------------------- - ---------------- --……--

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

FOOD 11.3 13.3 12.5 21.1 15.6 17.3 22.2 31.1 45.0 37.7

OTHER CONSUMER GOODS 38.2 44.2 42.9 47.1 33 4 32.7 42.2 4S.7 49.8 65.2

PETROLEUM, OIL 6 LUBRIC. 8.0 12.2 12,7 14.7 17.4 19.1 25.5 63.5 68.5 48.2

OTHER INTERMEDIATE GOODSl 67.3 74.5 67.7 73.1 76.5 76.7 too.2 170.7 135.9 175.1

CAPITAL GOODS 42.2 41.9 50.2 66.8 51.6 51.6 79.5 108.0 110.8 138.5

TOTAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS iCIF) 167.0 1B6.1 186.0 222.8 194.5 197.4 269.6 419.0 410.0 465.6w=:sUSa.A SwaiS zS Maxus-=== asuzcaaa ==s,sas... Us=wSflus Sssama=z %,,O3m* *as= fln=" OzauSa

1/ Includes balance of payments adjustment.

Source: Central Bank

Page 2 of 2

Table 3.3: HONDURAS; SUMMARY OF MERCHANnISE IMPORTS, 1967-76

(PERCENTAGES)

0 I S T R I 8 U T I O NITEM………………

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

FOOD 6.8 7.1 6.7 9.5 8.0 8.8 8.2 7.4 11.0 8.tOTHER CONSUMER GOODS 22.9 23.8 23.1 21.1 17.2 16.6 15.7 10.9 12.1 14.0PETROLEUM, OIL & LUBRIC. 4.8 6.6 6.8 6.6 8.9 9.7 9.5 15.2 16.7 1o.4OTHER INTERMEDIATE GOODS 40.3 40.0 36.4 32.8 39.3 38.9 37.2 40.7 33.1 37.7CAPITAL GOODS 25.3 22.5 27.o 30.0 26.5 26.1 29.5 25.9 27.0 29.8

TOTAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (CIF) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0:5=-= =ss sas=s-======== uwm=-m=wI - -: ffm==:.=- ==s*m=s=w SussUcns usUsuSSSS

--------------------

SOURCEI CENTRAL BANK(

Table 3.4: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS PROJECTIONS, 1977-82

(In millions of US Dollars)

Estimate P r o j e c t i o n s

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

Exports of Goods and Non-factor Services 343.5 443.1 617.5 634.2 679.5 758.1 864.7 973.6

Merchandise f.o.b. 307.9 403.5 569.5 583.9 621.7 691.6 788.3 888.6Non-factor services 35.6 39.6 48.o 50.3 57.8 66.5 76.4 85.0

Imports of Goods and Non-factor Services 452.4 509.0 615.0 690.1 783.7 869.2 985.5 1,096.5

Merchandise f.o.b. 377.6 427.0 525.0 591.1 675.7 751.9 854.1 937.8Non-factor services 714.8 82.0 90.0 99.0 108.0 117.3 131.4 158.7

Resource Gap -108.9 -66.o 2.5 -55.9 -104.2 -111.1 -120.8 -122.9

Factor Income (net) -28.3 -56.1 -60.0 -66.o -80.0 -90.0 -98.o -105.0

Net Interest Payments -10.1 -15.1 -18.7 -23.0 -28.7 -36.6 -42.5 -48.7Direct Investment Income -16.9 -41.0 -41.3 -43.0 -51.3 -53.4 -55.5 -56.3Other - 1.3 - - - - - - -

Current Transfers (net) 17.7 13.2 15.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 20.0 23.0

Current Account Balance -119.6 -108.9 -42.5 -107.9 -169.2 -185.1 -198.8 -204.9

Private Capital 15.1 43.9 34.0 37.0 40.0 48.o 55.0 60.0

Public Capital 103.1 82.6 91.3 106.1 139.7 133.7 143.2 150.5

Long-term 1/ 92.8 70.9 79.0 92.3 127.1 122.2 132.2 137.3Disbursements (99.2) (84.2) (100.5) (117.7) (154.5) (153.5) (170.7) (186.0)Amortizations (-6.4) (-13.3) (-21.5) (-25.4) (-27.4) (-31.3) (-33.5) (-48.7)

Other M and L (net) 10.3 11.7 12.3 13.8 12.6 11.5 11.0 13.2

Other 18.3 5.4 - - - - - -

Change in reserves (-increase) -16.9 -23.0 -82.8 -35.2 -10.5 3.4 o.6 -5.6Net reserves (end of year) 1I8.7 71 7 5 189.7 200.2 196.8 196.2 201.8

1/ Includes disbursements on loans channeled to the private sector through financial institutions, such as BANAFOM and theCentral Bank of Honduras.


TABLE 3.5: HONDURAS: EXPORT PROJECTIONS Page 1 of 2

(In Millions of US$)

ACTUAL ESTIMATE PROJECTIONS

_ - 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982EXPORTS

A. Constant 1975 Prices

Bananas 61.5 101.4 123.2 141.9 148.0 150.2 153.1 160.9Coffee 56.9 50.6 55.6 58.6 6i.o 66.1 67.4 68.6Lumber 38.8 35.6 24.9 32.3 3B.2 48.1 64.5 74.3Beef 18.3 22.7 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.6 20.7 20.8Sugar 7.0 4.6 11.9 31.9 37.0 36.9 36.9 36.8Petroleum Products 12.3 1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2Other Exports 113.1 127.7 137.0 145.5 151,5 1614 172,0 183-2

Total Goods 30T.9 343.7 374.2 432.2 458.1 485.5 '516.8 546.8Non-Factor Services A5_5 39,0 44.0 42,7 4,,6 5420 52.7 54.7

Total Goods and NFS 343.5 382.7 418.2 474.9 503.T 534.5 569.5 601.5

B. Price Indices (1975=100)

Bananas 100.0 105.2 105.2 105.2 113.0 120.5 131.6 142.7Coffee 100.0 198.4 387.8 284.3 239.9 214.9 211.4 208.0Lumber 100.0 106.6 136.4 152.2 166.2 182.1 197.0 213.2Beef 100.0 112.9 118.4 140.6 166.5 196.1 210.8 226.5Sugar 100.0 47.4 32.9 37.6 43.8 51.0 56.3 61.9Petroleum Products 100.0 103.8 114.1 122.1 130.7 139.8 149.6 160.1Other Exports 100.0 101.5 109.1 117.9 126.7 135.6 145.1 155.3

Total Goods 100.0 117.4 152.2 135.1 135.7 1142.4 152.5 162.5Total Services 100.0 101.5 109.1 1X7.9 126.7 135.6 1145.1 155.3

Total Goods and Non-Factor Services 100.0 115.8 147.6 133.5 134.9 141.8 151.8 161.0

C. Current Prices

Bananas 61.5 106.7 129.5 149.3 167.2 181.0 201.5 229.7Coffee 56.9 100.3 215.7 166.8 146.3 i141i.9 142.4 142.7Lumber 38.8 38.0 33.9 49.2 63.5 87.5 127.1 158.5Beef 18.3 25.6 23.0 27.8 33.6 40.4 43.7 47.0Sugar 7-0 2.2 3.9 12.0 16.2 18.8 20.8 22.8Petroleum Products 12.3 1.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4Other Exports 113.1 129.6 149.5 171.6 192.0 218.9 249.5 284.5

Total Goods 307.9 403.5 569.5 583.9 621.7 691.6 788.3 888.6Non-Factor Services 35.5 39.6 48.o 50.3 57.8 66.5 76.4 85.0

Total Goods and Non-Factor Services 343,5 443.1 617.5 634.2 679.5 758.1 864.7 973.6


TABLE 3.5: HONDURAS: EXPORT PROJECTIONS Page 2 of 2

(Value in millions of US$,volume in thousand metric tons and unit value in US$)

ACTUAL ESTIMATE PROJECTIONS

1975 1976 1977 19T8 1979 1980 1981 19U2Bananas

Value 61.5 106.7 129.5 1149.3 167.2 181.0 201.5 2L9.7Volume 368.4 607.6 737.3 850.0 882.7 900.0 917.6 964.5Unit Price 166.9 175.6 175.6 175.6 189.4 201.1 219.6 238.2

Coffee

Value 52.9 100.3 215.7 166.8 146.3 141.9 142.4 142.7Volume 48.5 .43.1 47.4 50.0 52.0 56.3 57.4 58.5Unit Price 1,173.2 2,327.1 4,550.0 3,335.0 2,814.0 2,521.0 2,480.0 2,440.0

Lumber

Value 38.8 38.0 45.A 53.7 63.5 87.5 127.1 158.5Volume (1000 m 396.0 364.o 340.0 360.0 390.0 490.0 658.0 750.0Unit Price 98.0 104.5 133.7 149.2 162.9 178.5 193.0 211.4

Beef

Value 18.3 25.6 23.0 27.8 33.6 40.4 43.7 47.0Volume 16.7 20.7 17.7 18.0 18.41 18.8 19.2 19.5Unit Price 1,095.8 1,236.7 1,298.5 1,542.0 1,826.1 2,150.7 2,276.5 2,409.7

Sugar

Value 7.0 2.2 3.9 12.0 16.2 18.8 20.8 22.8Volume 10.1 6.7 17.3 46.1 53.2 53.2 53.2 53.2Unit Price 693.1 328.4 227.9 260.4 303.8 353.7 390.1 429.1

Petroleum Derivatives

Value 12.3 1.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4All Other Exports

Value (including miscellaneous adjustments) 113.1 129.6 149.5 171.6 192.0 218.& .24 228.54 24Total Merchandise Export Value (adjusted) 307.9 403.5 569.5 583.9 621.7 691.6 788.3 883 .6Non-Factor 8ervices 35.5 5 32.6 48.o 50.3 57.8 66.5 76.4 85.oTotal Goods and NFB 343.5 443.1 617.5 634.2 679.5 758.1 864.7 973.6


Table 3.6: HONDURAS: IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES, 1977-82

(In millions of US dollars)

Actual Estimate P r o j e c t i o n1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

I. IMPORTSA. Constant Prices (1975=

100)

Food 45.o 35.9 44.2 50.2 49.3 45.3 47.0 48.8Other consumer goods 49.8 64.2 71.7 76.7 80.7 83.5 90.4 92.2Petroleum products 68.5 44.Q 57.4 60.q f5.2 70.2 75.14 70*7

Intermediate goods 135.9 170.6 194.7 199.2 211.3 225.1 239.9 255.6Capital goods 110.8 128.5 146.5 146.7 165.4 165.9 174.3 168.5

Total goods (CIF) 41o.1 444.1 514.5 53 5719 627.0 644.8Total goods (FOB) 377:6 407.3 73.3 491.0 526.1 5i2.8 576.8 593.2

Non-factor services 714.8 80.8 82.5 84 5. 6.5 90.6 102.3

Total goods and NFS 452.4 488.1 555.8 575.0 611.3 629.3 667.4 695.5

B. Price Indices(1975=100)

Food 100.0 105.0 92.8 88.7 98.5 116.5 122.3 128.4Other consumer goods 100.0 101.5 109.1 117.8 126.7 135.5 145.0 155.2Petroleum products 100.0 107.4 116.8 127.1 136.4 145.8 156.0 166.9Intermediate goods 100.0 103.0 110.7 119.6 128.6 137.6 147.2 157.5Capital goods 100.0 108.0 116.1 125.4 134.8 144.2 154.3 165.1

Total goods (CIF) 100.0 1014.8 110.9 120,4 128.4 138.5 148.0 158.1Non-factor services 100.0 101.5 109.1 117.9 127 5 145.1 155.2Total goods and NFS 100.0 105i1. 120.0 128.2 138.17.6

C. Current Prices (CIF)

Food 45.0 37.7 41.0 44.6 48.6 52.8 57.5 62.6Other consumer goods 49.8 65.2 78.2 90.3 102.2 113.2 131.1 143.1Petroleum products 68.5 48.2 67.0 77.4 89.0 102.3 117.7 133.0Intermediate goods 135.9 175.7 214.4 238.3 271.7 309.8 353.1 402.5Capital goods iL0-8 138.8 170.1 184.0 223.0 239.2 -269.0 *278.2Total goods (CIF) 1410.1 1465.6 570.7 642.5 734.5 817.3 928.14 1,019.14Total goods (FOB) 377. 1427.0 525.0 591.1 675.7 751.9 8514.1 937.8Non-factor services 74.8 82.0 90.0 99.0 ° 108. 117.3 131.4 158.7Total goods and NFS 452.14 509.0 615.0 690.1 783.7 869.2 985,5 1,096.5


01/11/78

Table 4.1HONDURAS PAGE I

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DL3T COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

D E B T O U T ST A N D I N G : I N A R R E A R STYPE OF CREDITOR ------------------------

CREDITOR COUNTRY DISBURSED :UNDISBURSED: TOTAL PRINCIPAL INTEREST…_…_… …_…- -__-- - - ----------

SUPPLIERS CREDITSBRAZIL 7,327 7,327 -FRANCE 43 43 -JAPAN 2,536 7,239 9,775 -PANAMA 1,291 1,709 3,000 -UNITED STATES 1,694 - 1,694 -

TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 12,891 8,948 21,839 -

PRIVATE BANK CREDITSBAHAMAS 1,500 - 1.500 -UNITED STATES 22,264 4,392 26,656 -

TOTAL PRIVATE BANK CREDITS 23,764 4,392 26,156 -

MULTILATERAL LOANSBCIE 68,703 40,725 109,428 -CA STABILIZATION FQ. 20,000 - 20,000 -IBRD 67,441 77,733 145,174 -IDA 30,397 19,107 49.504 -IDB 4,616 47,727 52,343 -

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 191,157 ls5.292 376,449 -

BILATERAL LOANSNORWAY 25 2.475 2,500 -UNITED STATES 66,462 44,520 110,982 -VENEZUELA 40,631 - 40,631 -

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 107,118 46,995 154,113 -

TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 334,930 245,627 580,557 _

NOTES: (1) ONLY DEBTS WITH AN ORIGINAL OR IXTENDED MATURITY OF OVER ONE YEAR ARE INCLUDED IN THIS TABLE.(2) DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDES PRINCIPAL IN ARREARS BUT EXCLUDES INTEREST IN ARREARS.

01/11/78Table 4.2: HONDURAS Page 1 of 10

SERVICE PAYMEN-3, DMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS ON DEBT OUTSTANB.ING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TOTAL

YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES: BEGINNING OF PERIOD :…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __…_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ …_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST-ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS ……-------- ----------- : LATIONS : MENT *

: PRINCIPAL INTEREST : TOTAL: (1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) : (8) S (9)

1972 102,275 152,827 19,870 20,184 3,961 3,909 7,870 268 8701973 119,367 169,338 50,110 18,142 5,552 5,582 11,134 27 1,1631974 133,590 215,032 67,458 43,673 5,933 6,225 12,158 106 -5101975 171,334 275,941 182,033 99,217 6,447 10,166 16,613 511 91976 264,110 451,025 145,037 84,174 13,330 15,131 28,461 206 -1,9691977 334,930 580,557

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 334,930 580,557 - 89,405 21,489 18.269 39,758 - -4811978 402,365 558,587 - 56,724 25,429 20,634 46,063 - 31979 433,665 533,161 - 42,245 26,712 21,120 47,832 - 41980 449,205 506,453 - 27,422 27,588 20,525 48,113 - _1981 449,039 478,865 - 14,427 28,647 20,255 48,902 - -11982 434,819 450;217 - 8,411 24,906 19,860 44,766 - -31983 418,321 425,308 - 3,165 24,459 18,443 42,902 - 31984 397,031 400,852 - 2,289 24,096 17,019 41,115 - -11985 375,223 376,755 - 1,457 24,669 16,043 40,712 - 41986 352,015 352,090 - 71 24,613 14,789 39,402 - -1987 327,473 327,477 - 4 24,889 13,591 38,480 - 31988 302,591 302,591 - - 23,188 12,155 35,343 - -31989 279,400 279,400 - - 23,001 10,833 33,834 - -21990 256,397 256,397 - - 22,311 9,496 31,807 - a1991 234,092 234,092 - - 16,284 8,293 24,577 - 21992 217,810 217,810 - - 14,561 7,481 22,042 - -41993 203,245 203,245 - - 14,296 6,742 21,038 - 41994 188,953 188,953 - - 13,862 6,029 19,891 - 21995 175,093 175,093 - - 13,751 5,342 19,093 - 31996 161,345 161,345 - - 13,570 4,648 18,218 - -

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

OT/1 1/78Table 4 .2 :HONDURAS Page 2 of 10

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTAN(ING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976


(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS

TOTAL -

YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D : OTHER CHANGESBEGINNING OF PERIOD :

…-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --_- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -…-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --_ - - - --_- -…-- - - - - - - - - - - -_ _ _ _ _ _ _

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- : DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST-ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS ----------- ----------- -------.---- LATIONS : MENT *

PRINCIPAL INTEREST : TOTAL(1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) : (8) : (9)

1972 2,299 4,653 1,165 - 669 132 801 219 81973 1,638 4,938 7,789 1,264 708 135 843 - -51974 2,189 12,014 1,149 4,166 661 523 1,184 - t1975 5,695 12,503 - 5,849 946 920 1,866 - 31976 10,601 11,560 11,233 3,244 953 884 1,837 - -11977 12,891 21,839


1977 12,891 21,839 - 4,035 1,797 932 2,729 -11978 15,130 20,043 - 3,466 2,097 1,054 3,151 - -11979 16,497 17,945 - 1,448 2.791 1,226 4,017 - -1980 15,154 15,154 - - 3,184 1,073 4,257 - -1981 11,969 11,969 - - 2,583 841 3,424 - -21982 9,384 9,384 - - 2,218 654 2,872 - -1983 7,166 7,166 - - 1,918 487 2,405 - _1984 5,248 5,248 - - 1,618 356 1,974 - -11985 3,629 3,629 - - 1,618 239 1,857 - -1986 2,011 2,011 - - 804 136 940 - -

1987 1,207 1,207 - - 804 75 879 - -11988 402 402 - - 402 15 417 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

01 /1 1/78Tahlte 4.2: HONDURAS Page 3 of 10

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEST

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTAN[ING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1 , 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR PRIVATE BANK CREDITS

TOTALYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGESBEGINNING OF PERIOD : I…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __…_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- : DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST-ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS ----------- -----------:---------- LATIONS t MENT

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) : (9)

1972 - - 3,000 3,000 - - - _ _1973 3,000. 3,000 4,174 - 300 127 427 _ _1974 2,700 6,874 3,000 6,898 600 431 1,031 14 -1975 8,998 9,260 5,610 1,695 1,432 790 2,222 67 -1976 9,261 13,371 17,040 16,758 2,255 1,163 3,418 -1977 23,764 28,156

* * t* * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 23,764 28,156 - 4,392 2,974 1,724 4,698 - -4121978 24,770 24,770 - - 5,766 1,685 7,451 - -1979 19,004 19,004 - - 5,617 1,272 6,889 - -1980 13,387 13,387 - - 5,427 863 6,290 - 11981 7,961 7,961 - - 6,889 351 7,240 - -1982 1,072 1,072 - - 989 64 1,053 - -1983 83 83 - - 83 4 87 - -

T tHIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

01/11/78Trable 4.2: HONDURAS Page 0I of 10


PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANIING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976


(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS

CREDITOR COUNTRY BCIEYEAR : DEBT OUTSrANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES

: BEGINNING OF PERIOD :

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST-ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS :-----------:-----------:----------- LATIONS : MENT *

PRINCIPAL INTEREST : TOTAL(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) : (8) : (9)

1972 19,521 32,950 3,405 6,546 905 981 1,886 -

1973 25,162 35,451 5,600 3,942 2,109 1,679 3,788 - -3941974 27,070 38,548 20,089 9,782 1,937 1,215 3,152 - -5121975 34,918 56,188 39,752 16,366 1,041 2,780 3,821 115 31976 50,244 94,787 18,375 20,236 1,776 3,656 5,432 12 -1,9461977 68,703 109,428


1977 68,703 109,428 - 17,437 6,495 4,436 10,931 - -711978 79,574 102,862 - 12,425 7,106 5,710 12,816 - 41979 84,898 95,760 - 6,905 7,422 5,867 13,289 - 21980 84,385 88,340 - 3,547 6,139 5,681 11,820 - -11981 81,792 82,200 - 408 6,898 5,368 12,266 - -11982 75,301 75,301 - - 8,259 4,855 13,114 - -1983 67,042 67,042 - - 7,849 4,266 12,115 - 21984 59,195 59,195 - - 7,227 3,713 10,940 - -1985 51,968 51,968 - - 7,153 3,187 10,340 - -1986 44,815 44,815 - - 6,941 2,665 9,606 - -1987 37,874 37,874 - - 6,542 2,169 8,711 - 21988 31,334 31,334 - - 5,604 1,728 7,332 - -21989 25,728 25,728 - - 5,604 1,352 6,956 - 11990 20,125 20,125 - - 5,367 977 6,344 - -1991 14,758 14,758 - - 3,304 657 3,961 - -1992 11,454 11,454 - - 2,053 483 2,536 - -

1993 9,401 9,401 - - 1,748 371 2,119 - I1994 7,654 7,654 - - 1,083 285 1,368 - -11995 6,570 6,570 - - 723 243 966 - -

1996 5,847 5,847 - - 723 213 936 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY To ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

01/11/78Table 41.2: HONDURAS

Page 5 of 10-RVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT




CREDITOR COUNTRY CA STABILIZATION FD.

YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD…________ ----------------------------------------------------------- ___-----… -…-------------

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST-

ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS ------------:----------------------: LATIONS : MENT *

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1972 - - - _ _ _ _ _

1973 - - _ _ _ _ _1974 - - - _ _ - _ _

1975 - - 25,000 25,000 - - -

1976 25,000 25,000 - - 5,000 1,249 6,249 -

1977 20,000 20,000


1977 20,000 20,000 - - 5,000 875 5,8751978 15,000 15,000 - - 5,000 625 5,625 -

1979 10,000 10,000 - - 5,000 375 5,375 -

1980 5,000 5,000 - - 5,000 125 5,125 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE

YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS

FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

ni /i 1/78

Table 4L.2; IIONDURAS Page 6 of 10SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT




CREDITOR COUNTRY IBRDYEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES

: BEGINNING OF PERIOD…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __… _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S I CANCEL- : ADJUST-: ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS -----------:-----------:---------- LATIONS : MENT *

PRINCIPAL INTEREST : TOTAL: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) I (7) (8) : (9)

1972 33,587 47,675 12,300 2,161 1,659 2,212 3,871 -1973 34,089 58,316 1B,BOo 7,663 1,728 2,825 4,553 271974 40,024 75,361 3,000 7,341 1,939 3,238 5,177 -1975 45,426 76,422 38,000 13,22B 1,993 3,833 5,826 -1976 56,661 112,429 35,000 13,035 2,255 4,394 6,649 -1977 67,441 145,174

* * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 67,441 145,174 - 18,750 2,830 5,561 8,391 -1978 83,361 142,344 - 16,B23 2,966 6,364 9.330 -1979 97,218 139,378 - 15,996 3,400 6,B99 10,299 -1980 109,814 135,978 - 10,409 4,000 7,123 11,123 -1981 116,223 131,978 - 6,891 5,173 8,051 13,224 -1982 117,941 126,805 - 3,9B4 6,376 8,903 15,279 - _1983 115,548 120,428 - 2,141 6,936 8,617 15,553 - _1984 110,753 113,492 - 1,583 7,361 8,234 15,595 - -11985 104,974 106,130 - 1,126 7,388 7,7B6 15,174 - _1986 98,712 98,742 - 26 7,376 7,274 14,650 -1987 91,362 91,366 - 4 7,761 6,729 14,490 - -11988 83,604 83,604 - - 7,331 6,165 13,496 - -1989 76,273 76,273 - - 7,726 5,612 13,338 - -11990 68,546 68,546 - - 7,632 5,029 12,661 - -1991 60,914 60,914 - - 6,896 4,462 11,358 - -11992 54,017 54,017 - - 6,401 3,959 10,360 -1993 47,616 47,616 - - 6,416 3,466 9,882 -1994 41,199 41,199 - - 6,431 2,975 9,406 -1995 34,768 34,768 - - 6,786 2,469 9,255 - -11996 27,981 27,981 - - 6,571 1,937 8,508 -


01/1 1/78

T,q,h3e 4 .2: HONDURAS Page 7 of 10SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMNMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT




CREDITOR COUNTRY IDAYEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES

: BEGINNING OF PERIOD…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ .…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __…_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __…_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __… _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST-ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS -----------:----------------------: LATIONS MENT *

PRINC:RAL INTEREST TOTAL(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) : (9)

1972 16,798 23,9E6 - 4,600 84 154 238 - 8611973 22,175 24,763 6,600 2,147 85 206 291 _ 1,5631974 25,800 32,841 3,000 1,233 84 193 277 _ -1975 26,949 35,757 - 1,867 126 201 327 - -1976 28,690 35,631 14,000 1,834 127 216 343 -1977 30,397 49,504


1977 30,397 49,504 - 2,558 126 229 355 - -1978 32,829 49,378 - 4.605 150 245 395 - -11979 37,283 49,227 - 4,491 174 276 150 - -11980 41,599 49,052 - 3,233 233 308 541 - -1981 44,599 48,819 - 1,932 349 331 680 -11982 46,183 48,471 - 1,132 433 343 776 -21983 46,880 48,036 - 644 433 349 782 -1984 47,092 47,604 - 326 529 351 o880 --1985 46,889 47,075 - 141 614 350 964 - -1986 46,416 46,461 - 45 684 346 1,030 -1987 45,778 45,778 - - 754 342 1,096 - -1988 45,024 45,024 - - 802 336 1,128 -1989 44,223 44,223 - - 850 330 ", - -1990 43,373 43,373 - - 968 322 1,290 -1991 42,406 42,406 - - 1,030 316 1,346 -1992 41,377 41,377 - - 1,030 307 1,337 - -1993 40,347 40,347 - - 1,030 300 1,330 - -1994 39,317 39,317 - - 1,222 292 1,514 - -1995 38,095 38,095 - - 1,222 282 1,504 -1996 36,874 36,874 - - 1,362 275 1,637 - -


Table h .2: HONDURAS Page /o 1/


PROJECTIONS BASAD ON DEBT OUTSTANEING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976


(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CRE- TOR MULTILATERAL LOANS

CREDIT 1 COUNTRY IDBYEAR : DEBT OUTSTAN-- 3 AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES

: BEGINNING O; RIOD…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ .…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- _ _- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __…_ _- - - - - - - - _- - - - - - - - - - - - -

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- : DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- S ADJUST-: ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS :-----------:-----------:----------- LATIONS t MENT *

PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL :: (I) : (2) (3) (4) (5) : (6) : (7) : (8) 2 (9)

1972 4,050 4,050 - 500 156 656 -1973 3,550 3,550 973 - 500 137 637 -1974 3,050 4,023 10,120 47 600 121 721 -

1975 2,497 13,543 20,500 482 700 136 836 -1976 2,279 33,343 19,700 3,037 700 261 961 -1977 4,616 52,343

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * 4 * *

1977 4,616 52,343 - 17,446 700 339 1,039 -

1978 21,362 51,643 - 10,772 350 383 733 -

1979 31,784 51,293 - 7,422 - 424 424 -

1980 39,206 51,293 - 5,681 - 462 462 -

1981 44,887 51,293 - 4,083 - 490 490 -

1982 48,970 51,293 - 2,323 - 506 506 -1983 51,293 51,293 - - - 514 514 -1984 51,293 51,293 - - 24 523 547 -1985 51,269 51,269 - - 524 725 1,249 -1986 50,745 50,745 - - 906 848 1,754 - -1987 49,839 49,839 - - 1,460 991 2,451 - -11988 48,378 48,378 - - 1,476 960 2,436 - -21989 46,900 46,900 - - 1,493 930 2,423 - -1990 45,407 45,407 - - 1,510 900 2,410 - -1991 43,897 43,897 - - 1,528 871 2,399 - 11992 42,370 42,370 - - 1,544 840 2,384 - -41993 40,822 40,822 - - 1,563 808 2,371 - 21994 39,261 39,261 - - 1,581 778 2,359 - -21995 37,678 37,678 - - 1,600 745 2,345 - 21996 36,080 36,080 - - 1,619 714 2,333 - -1


0 1/I 1/78

Table 4.2: H tIONDURAS Page 9 of 10SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976



TOTALYEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES

: BEGINNING OF PERIOD :…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ .…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __…_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __…_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST-ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS …… ----------------- LATIONS : MENT *

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) : (9)

1972 73,956 108,661 15,705 13,307 3,148 3,503 6,651 - 8621973 84,976 122,080 31,973 13,752 4,422 4,847 9,269 27 1,1691974 95,944 150,773 36,209 18,403 4,560 4,767 9,327 - -5121975 109,790 181,910 123,252 56,943 3,860 6,950 10,810 115 31976 162,874 301,190 87,075 38,142 9,858 9,776 19,634 12 -1,9461977 191,157 376,449


1977 191,157 376,449 - 56,191 15,151 11,440 26,591 - -711978 232,126 361,227 - 44,625 15,572 13,327 28,899 - 31979 261,183 345,658 - 34,814 15,996 13,841 29,837 -1980 280,004 329,663 - 22,870 15,372 13,699 29,071 - -11981 287,501 314,290 - 13,314 12,420 14,240 26,660 - -1982 288,395 301,870 - 7,439 15,068 14,607 29,675 - -31983 280,763 286,799 - 2,785 15,218 13,746 28,964 - 31984 268,333 271,584 - 1,909 15,141 12,821 27,962 - -11985 255,100 256,442 - 1,267 15,679 12,048 27,727 - -1986 240,688 240,763 - 71 15,907 11,133 27,040 - 11987 224,853 224,857 - 4 16,517 10,231 26,748 - -1988 208,340 208,340 - - 15,213 9,189 24,402 - -31989 193,124 193,124 - - 15,673 8,224 23,897 - -1990 177,451 177,451 - - 15,477 7,228 22,705 -1991 161,975 161,975 - - 12,758 6,306 19,064 - 11992 149,218 149,218 - - 11,028 5,589 16,617 - -41993 138,186 138,186 - - 10,757 4,945 15,702 - 21994 127,431 127,431 - - 10,317 4,330 14,647 - -31995 117,111 117,111 - - 10,331 3,739 14,070 - 21996 106,782 106,782 - - 10,275 3,139 13,414 - -1


01/11/78Table 1i . 2: HONDURAS Page 10 of 10



INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976DEST REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS

TOTAL -YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES

: BEGINNING OF PERIOD :…_____________________________-_- ----------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST-ONLY :UNDIS8URSED: MENTS MENTS :… -- ---------- :-------- LATIONS : MENT *

: PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL(1) : (2) : (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) : (9)

1972 26,020 39,513 - 3.877 144 274 418 49 -1973 29,753 39,320 6,174 3,126 122 473 595 - -11974 32.757 45,371 27,100 14,206 112 504 616 921975 46,851 72,268 53,171 34,730 209 1,506 1,715 329 31976 81,374 124,904 29,689 26,030 264 3,308 3,572 194 -221977 107,118 154,113

. * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 107,118 154,113 - 24,7B7 1,567 4,173 5,740 - 11978 130,339 152,547 - 8,633 1,994 4,568 6,562 - 11979 136,981 150,554 - 5,983 2,308 4,781 7,089 - 31980 140,660 148,249 - 4,552 3,605 4,890 8,495 - 11981 141,608 144,645 - 1,113 6,755 4,823 11,578 - 11982 135,968 137,891 - 972 6,631 4,535 11,166 - -1983 130,309 131,260 - 380 7,240 4,206 11,446 - -1984 123,450 124,020 - 380 7,337 3,842 11,179 - I1985 116,494 116,684 - 190 7,372 3,756 11,128 - 41986 109,316 109,316 - - 7,902 3,520 11,422 - -11987 101,413 101,413 - - 7,568 3,285 10,853 - 41988 93,849 93,849 - - 7,573 2,951 10,5Z4 - -1989 86,276 86,276 - - 7,328 2,609 9,937 - -21990 78,946 78,946 - - 6,834 2,268 9,102 - 51991 72,117 72,117 - - 3,526 1,987 5,513 - 11992 68,592 68,592 - - 3,533 1,892 5,425 - -1993 65,059 65,059 - - 3,539 1,797 5,336 - 21994 61,522 61,522 - - 3,545 1,699 5,244 - 51995 57,982 57,982 - - 3,420 1,603 5,023 - I1996 54,563 54,563 - - 3,295 1,509 4,804 -


01/1 /78

Table 4k. HONDURAS Page 1

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANIDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1976

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

D E B T O U T S T A N D I N G : I N A R R E A R S

TYPE OF CREDITOR ----------

CREDITOR COUNTRY DISBURSED :UNDISBURSED: TOTAL : PRINCIPAL INTEREST

MULTILATERAL LOANSBCIE 13,841 194 14.035 -

IDB 60,539 16,559 77,098 -

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 74,380 16,753 91,133 -

BILATERAL LOANSUNITED STATES 3.032 - 3,032 -

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 3,032 - 3,032 -

TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 77,412 16,753 94,165 -

NOTES: (1) ONLY DEBTS WITH AN ORIGINAL OR EXTENDED MATURITY OF OVER ONE YEAR ARE INCLUDED IN THIS TABLE.

(2) DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDES PRINCIPAL IN ARREARS BUT EXCLUDES INTEREST IN ARREARS.

01/11/78

Tabl-e 4.4: I1ONDTTPAS Page 1 of 5SERVICE PAYMENTS, COPMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEST

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976DEST REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

IIN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TOTAL

YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E Q I 0 D : OTHER CHANGES: BEGINNING OF PERIOD :

--------- : -.----- *---'-.-------*-------I------------* …----…-----DISBURSED : INCLUDING s COMMIT- : DISBURSE- * S E R V I C E P A V M E N T s s CANCEL- t ADJUST-

ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS : - --------- :-----------s LATIONS : KENT *: s I PRINCIPAL INTEREST : T3TAL s

: l) ( : 21 : 13) : 14) : 15) : 165 s 175 : (81 : (91

1972 46,552 74,539 5,6t6 3,771 2,390 1,769 4,159 40 -6091973 47,323 77,176 9,852 4,906 3,166 1,964 5,130 5 -ZO1974 49,058 83,837 8,999 10,496 2,943 1,985 4,928 - 4831975 56,575 90,376 - 16,196 2,549 2,344 4,893 129 -1976 70,223 87,698 7,26T 9,943 2,755 2,454 5,209 - 1,9541977 77,412 94,164

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGUR ES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 77,412 94,164 - 7,338 4,782 2,744 7,526 - 41978 79,971 89,386 - 3,802 5,370 2,636 8,006 - 11979 78,404 84,017 - 2,560 4,772 2,483 7,255 - 21980 76,194 79,247 - 1,470 4,784 2,319 7,103 - 31981 72,883 74,466 - 1,002 4,774 2,148 6,922 - 71982 69,118 69,699 - 581 4,650 1,970 6,620 - -11983 65,048 65,048 - - 4,689 1,838 6,527 - 61984 60,365 600365 - - 4,757 1,709 6,466 - I1985 55,609 55,609 - - 4,674 1,588 6,262 - 21986 50,937 50,937 - - 4,757 1,448 6,205 - 91987 46,189 46,189 - 4,417 1,324 5,741 - -31988 41,769 41,769 - - 4,353 1,170 5,523 - 71989 47,423 37,423 - - 4,052 1,017 5,069 - 21990 33,373 33,373 - - 4,041 884 4,925 - -21991 29,330 29,330 - - 3,279 T44 4,023 - 21992 26,053 26.053 - - 3,201 636 3,837 - 21993 22,854 22,854 - - 2,728 530 3,258 - 51994 20,131 20,131 - - 2,507 452 2,959 - 21995 17,626 17,626 - - 2,048 385 2,433 - -1996 15,578 15,578 - - 1,810 326 2,136 - -

NOTESs fl) ONRZ DEBTS WITH AN ORIGINAL OR.KITINDBD MATURITY OF OVE CFE TEAR ARESINCLUDED IN THIS TABLE.(2) INCLUDES SERVICE (N ALL DEBTS ISTED INTABLZ 1, FUED JUL 19, 1977.

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN tHE AMOUNT OUTSTA4DING ISCLUDING UNOISBURSED FROM ONEV R TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS

4 ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

01/11/78Table 4.4: HONDURAS PAGE 2 of 5

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTA4DING AMOUNTS OF EXTEANAL PUBLIC DEBT


IIN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS

CREDITOR COUNTRY BCIETOTAL

YFAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S 0 U R I N G P E R I 0 3 s OTHER CHANGESBEGINNING OF PERIOD : s

_~~~~~~~~ -- ___ --- __ __-_______- ___- _- :---_____- --- -- ___- ----- _ - ----- - - -- - _ _- -s

DISBURSED : INCLUDING . COMMIT- : DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S : CANCEL- : ADJUST-: ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS : MENTS :------ --:…----- --------- LATIONS : MENT *

PRINCIPAL INTEREST : TJTAL s: (11 : (21 13) 14) (51 : (63 : (7) (81 s (91

1972 4,572 7,387 876 1.630 218 289 507 - -6111973 5,372 7,434 425 1,905 359 290 649 5 -221974 6,911 7,473 3,969 1,639 343 323 666 - 4641975 8,153 11,563 - 3,087 64 621 685 129 -11976 11,176 11,369 767 2,7ZO 57 599 656 - 1,9551977 13,841 14,034


1977 13,841 14,034 - 194 850 717 1,567 - 21978 13,186 13,186 - - 854 678 1,532 - -21979 12,330 12,330 - - 919 633 1,552 - 21980 119413 11,413 - - 919 582 1.501 - 21981 10,496 10,496 - - 912 528 1,440 - -1198Z 9,583 9,583 - - 921 473 1,394 - -1983 8,662 8,662 - - 899 420 1,319 - 11984 7,764 7,764 - - 773 371 1,144 - 11985 6,992 6,992 - - T73 331 1,104 - -21986 6,217 6,217 - 773 290 1,063 - 31987 5,447 5,447 - - 773 251 1,024 - -21988 4,672 4,672 - - 724 212 936 - 21989 3,950 39950 - - 724 174 898 - -1990 3,226 3,226 - - 724 139 863 - -21991 2,500 2,500 - - 640 101 741 - -1992 1,860 1,860 - - 557 71 628 - -21993 1,301 1,301 - - 332 42 374 - 11994 970 970 - - 109 33 142 - -1995 861 861 - - 87 29 116 - -I1996 773 773 - - 65 25 90 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES 14 EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

01/11/78Table 4.4: FONDUflAS

PAGE 3 or5SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISGURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1916DEST REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS?TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS

CREDITOR COUNTRY IDSTOTAL

-AR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S 0 U R I N G P E R I 0 0 s OTHER CHANGES: BEGINNING OF PERIOD : S

…-----…------…- - - - --- …s 01SBJRSEO : INCLUDING 5 COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A V H E N T S s CANCEL- * ADJUST-

ONLY sUNDISBURSEDs MENTS : MENTS :s----------: …--------:---: LATIONS : MENT 0: PRINCIPAL : INTEREST TOTAL * s

(1) : 2) : 13 1 (41 15) : 61 (7) (: 18I : 191

1972 35.743 60,915 4,800 2,141 1,721 1,313 3,034 40 -1973 36,163 63,954 9,421 3,001 2,037 1,440 3.477 -1974 37,127 71,344 5,030 8,857 1,955 1,492 3,450 - 191975 44,044 74,435 - 13,109 1,822 1,515 3,397 - -1976 55,331 72,613 6,500 7,223 2,015 1,125 3,740 - -1977 60,539 t7,098

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * 0 0 0

1977 60,539 77,098 - 7,144 3,096 1,926 5,022 - 11978 64,588 14,003 - 3,802 3,650 1,587 5,567 - 3197T 64,713 70,326 - 2,560 3,693 1,804 5,497 - -1980 63,580 66,633 - 1,470 3,705 1,696 5,401 - 11981 619346 62,929 - 1,002 3,10Z 1,585 5,257 - a1982 58,654 59,235 - 581 3,569 1,468 5,037 - _1983 55,666 55,666 - - 3,630 1,394 5,024 - 5I984 52,041 52,041 - - 3,824 1,320 5,144 - -1985 48,217 48,217 - - 3,741 1,244 4,985 - 41986 44,400 +4,480 - - 3,824 1,151 4,975 - 61987 40,662 40,662 - - 3,564 1,072 4,636 - -11988 37,097 37.097 - - 3,629 958 4,587 - 51989 33,473 33,473 - - 3,328 843 4,171 - 21990 30,147 30,147 - - 3,317 745 4,062 - -1991 26.830 26,030 - - 2,639 643 3,282 - 21992 24,193 24,193 - - 2,644 565 3,209 - 41993 21,553 21,553 - - 2,396 488 2,884 - 41994 19,161 19,161 - - 2,398 419 2,817 - 21995 16,765 16,765 - - 1,961 356 2,317 - 11996 14,805 14,805 - - 1.745 301 2,046 - _

* -1S COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING 14CLU31N; UNDSOBURSED FROM ONE--AR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS"ON ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER tN TI4E TABLE.

Table 4.4: HONDURAS 01/li/78PAGE 4 of 5SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND DUTSTA4DING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1976DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARSITYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS

TOTALYEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I O-4 S 0 U R I N G P E R I 0 0 s OTHER CHANGES: BEGINNING OF PERIOD :

DISBURSED : INCLUOING COHNMT- DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A Y N E 4 T S s CANCEL- : ADJUST-: ONLY :UNDIS8URSED: MENTS :RENTS :-- - - - --:-- ------ LATIONS : nNET *:I: : : : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST TDTAL s: 11 it (21 (31 : (43 (5) : 6) : (7) s (81 * (91972 40,315 68,302 5,676 3,771 1,939 1,602 3,541 40 -6111973 41,535 71,388 9,852 4,906 2,396 1,730 4,126 5 -221974 44,038 78,817 8,999 10,496 2,301 1.815 4,116 - 4831975 52,197 85,998 - 16,196 1,886 2,196 4,082 129 -11976 66,507 83,982 7,267 9,943 29012 2,324 4,396 - 1,9551977 74,380 91,13Z


1977 74,380 91,132 - 7,338 3,946 2,643 6,569 - 31978 77,774 87,189 - 3,802 4,534 2,565 7,099 - 11979 77,043 82,656 - 2,560 4,612 2,43T 7,049 - 21980 74,993 78,046 - 1,470 4,624 2,278 6,902 - 31981 71,842 73,425 - 1,002 4,614 2,113 6.127 - 71982 68,237 68,818 - 581 4,490 1,941 6,431 -1983 64,328 64,328 - - 4,529 1,814 6,343 - 61984 59,805 59,805 - - 4,597 1,691 6.286 - I1985 55,209 55.209 - - 4,514 1,575 6,089 - 21986 50,697 50,697 - - 4,597 1,441 6,038 - 91987 46,109 46,109 - - 4,337 1,323 5,660 - -31988 41,769 419769 - - 4,353 1,tT0 5,523 - 71989 37,423 37T423 - - 4,052 1,017 5,069 - 21990 33,373 33,373 - - 4,041 884 4,925 - -21991 29,330 29,330 - - 3,279 744 4,023 - 21992 26,053 26,053 - - 3,201 636 3,837 - 21993 22,854 22,854 - - 2,728 530 3,258 - 51994 20,131 20,131 - - 2,507 452 2,9S9 - 21995 17,626 17,626 - - 2,048 385 2,433 -1996 15,578 15,578 - - 1,010 326 2,136 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOV3 THE AMOUNT - :THMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUrSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THlE MOST COtlf'D CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFF ONE CATEGOW' TO ANOTHER IM THiE TABLE.

Table 4.4: HONDURASPAGE 5 of 5

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COI'MITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT


(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS

TOTALYEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E A I 0 D s OTHER CHANGES

: BEGINNING OF PERIOO :__________ _ __-______--_--- :-- -- - - - - - - - 2…- - - - - - I

DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- S E R V l(C E P A Y N E N T S t CANCEL- t ADJUST-ONLY :UNDISBURSED2 MENTS : MENTS :--- - -- - - --------- - LATIONS K NENT

: PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL * s

: II s 12 131 14) : 15) ( 161 : 67 : s la) J 19

1972 6,237 6,237 - - 451 167 S18 - 2

1973 5,788 5,788 - - 770 234 1,004 - 21974 5,020 5,020 - - 642 ITO 812 - -

1975 4,378 4,378 - - 663 148 811 -

1976 3,716 3,716 - - 683 130 813 - -I1977 3,032 3,032

* * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1977 3,032 3,032 - - 836 101 937 -

1978 2,197 2,197 - - 836 71 907 - -

1979 1,361 1,361 - - 160 46 206 - -

1980 1,201 1.201 - - 160 41 201 - -

1981 1,041 1,041 - - 160 35 195 - -

1982 881 881 - - 160 29 189 - -I1983 720 720 - - 160 24 184 - -

1984 560 560 - - 160 18 IT8 - -

1985 400 400 - - 160 13 173 - -

1986 240 240 - - 160 7 167 - -

1987 80 80 - - 80 1 81 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN rHE AMOUNT OUTSTAVDING INCLU31N6 UNDISBURSED FROM ONE

YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS

FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN TNF TABLE.

Page 1 of 6

Table 5.1: HONDURAS; PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS, 1967-76(MILLIONS OF CURRFNT LEMPIRAS)

D I S T R I B U T I O NI TEM --------------------------------------------------------------------_---___-- -__------_----__---_----1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976…-- - --- - - - --- - - - -- - - -…-- - - - --- - - - -- - - - - - --- - - --- -- - --- - - - - --- - - ----___- --_-__ _ _ _ -_ __ - - - _ _- - _--- - __---_-- -_-- - --- - - - -- -- -…-_- --_

CENTRAL GOVERNMENT I. Central Government -__________________

CURRENT REVENUE 128.9 146.8 155.9 188.1 184.0 200.2 227.0 273.2 303.9 365.9OF WHICH TRANSFERS FROMPUBLIC ENTERPRISES AND AUTONorAOUS INSTITUTIONS 2.4 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.3 8.5 4.7 4.2 7.1 10.1CURRENT EXPENDITURE 113.4 125.9 154.3 158.1 164.2 192.8 188.6 224.6 288.3 352.3OF WHICH TRANSFERS 17.4 19.8 17.6 10.9 10.5 11.1 9.0 17.7 34.8 31.4TO PUBLIC ENTERPRISES - - - - 0.9 1.4 - - 2.8 -TO AUTONOMOUS INSTIT. 17.1 19.7 17.5 10.4 8.8 9.5 9.0 17.6 32.0 31.4TO MUNICIPALITIES 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 - 0.1 - -CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS(+)

OR DEFICIT (-) 15.5 20.9 1.6 30.0 19.8 7.4 38.4 48.6 15.6 13.6.,

CAPITAL RECEIPTS - _ - - - - - - 5.0

INVESTMENT EXPENDITURE 31.1 35.0 50.6 65.6 61.5 50.4 62.6 100.0 135.0 136.5OF WHICH TRANSFERS 6.8 7.3 7.6 6.4 6.9 9.4 13.1 18.3 27.6 25.6TO PUBLIC ENTERPRISES 4.7 4.7 5.3 4.1 2.7 1.2 4.0 6.8 17.7 16.4TO AUTONOMOUS INSTIT. 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.4 3.9 7.2 8.6 11.0 4.4 3.0TO MUNICIPALITIES 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 5.5 6.2OTHER TRANSFERS TOSTATE FIN'L. INSTIT. 4.0 4.0 4.0 8.3 7.8 2.9 8.2 16.2 24.3 22.3OVERALL SURPLUS OR DEFICIT -15.6 -14.1 -49.0 -35.6 -41.7 -43.0 -24.2 -51.4 -119.4 -117.9

EXTERNAL FINANCING,NET 7.6 13.8 23.8 13.6 34.4 19.4 18.8 46.0 86.8 70.9DISBURSEMENT 10.1 16.5 27.8 17.8 39.9 25.8 26.4 54.6 95.1 80.0AMORTIZATION 2.5 2.7 4.0 4.2 5.5 6.4 7.6 8.6 -8.3 9.1DOMESTIC FINANCING,NET 8.0 0.3 25.2 22.0 7.3 23.6 5.4 5.4 32.6 47.0BANKING SYSTEM,NET 2.8 -4.3 15.2 24.7 15.1 9.1 3.6 -4.9 12.9 14.3OTHER,NET 5.2 4.6 10.0 -2.7 -7.8 14.5 1.8 10.3 19.7 32.7_____ - -_________________________________________________________________________________--_---__________________---

--------

Pag 2 of 6

Table-S5.: HOIDUIMAS PURLIC SOTMCR C3l.&TIcO

(Millions of oarrint Lpfraa)

1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1/ 1976

II. Municipalities

Current revenue 8.1 9-4 9.8 13.5 11.6 12.6 13.4 14.4 13.5 16.1 19.2 21.0 27.4Transfers from the Central Government (0.7) (0.2) (1.0) (0.3) (0.1) (0.1) (0.5) (0.8) (0.2) (-) (0.1) (-) (2.0)Current expenditure 5.7 8.1 10.3 11.9 11.1 11.0 11.6 12.0 11.6 12.0 14.8 15.6 21.4

Current account surplus (+), deficit (-) 2.4. 1.3 -0.5 1.9 0.5 1.6 1.8 2.4 1.9 4.1 4.4 JA 6.o

Capital receipts 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.8 1.8 1.0 1.0 0.5 60. 2.2Transfers frco the Central Oovernment (-) () (-) (1.4) (1.5) (1.3) (0.9) (0.3) (1.0) (0.5) (0.5) (6.3) (2.2)

Inveutment expenditure 2.0 1.2 1.4 2.9 1.9 5.2 3.5 5.0 4.0 4.6 1.o 9.7 15.L

Overall surplus (+), deficit (-) 0.7 0.9 -0.9 0.8 0.8 -1. 4 1.1 -0.8 -1.1 0.5 -6.1 k.0 - 6.9

External financing, net - - - - - - - - - O.4 0.6 7.7Domestic financing, net -0.7 -0.9 0.9 -0.8 -0.8 1.4 -1.1 0.8 1.1 -0.5 5.7 -4. 6 _0.8

V Estimate.

Page 3 of 6

Table 5.1' HONDURAS: PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS

(nillions of current lempiras)

1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970!' 1971!' 1972V/ 19732/ 1974 197 F 1976

III. Autonomous Institutions

Current revenue 11.0 23.6 25.1 30.0 34.3 33.4 17.4 15.8 33.5 43.1 59.0 77.5 96.0Of which transfers 8.4 16.T 16.7 22.2 24.6 22.0 10.1 8.8 9.5 9.0 19.2 26.1 31.4From Central Government (4.9) (12.4) (13.3) (17.1) (19.6) (17.5) (o104) (8.8) (9.5) (9.0) (19.2) (26.1) (31.4)From public enterprises (3.5) (4.0) (3.4) (5.1) (5.o) (4.6) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-? ()Current expenditure 8.1 19.6 24.2 214.8 28.0 31.1 15.6 19.2 35.1 42.5 50.3 61.5 68.3Transfers to Central Government (-) (2.6) (3.9) (2.4) (2.6) (3.2) (-) (-) (5.4) (4-5) (4.2) (5.1) (5.6)Current surplus (+), deficit (-) 2.9 3.8 0.9 5.2 6.3 2.3 1.8 -3.1i -1.6 0.6 8.7 16.0 27.7Capital receipts 1.0 - 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.5 5.2 8.6 10.4 12.6 9.7 5.7Transfers from Central Government (1.0) (-) (1.2) (1.1) (1.1) (1.0) (1.4) (3.9) (7.2) (8.6) (11.o) (7.5) (5.7)Investmnent expenditure 3.4 1.8 3.1 6.1 3.8 5.7 5.9 4.6 2.1 4.4 u1.4 Ul.] 12.7Overall surplus (+), deficit (-) 0.5 2.0 -1.0 0.2 3.6 -2.4 -2.6 -2.8 4.9 6.6 9.9 14.6 20.7

External financing, net - 0.1 0.2 - - 1.2 2.4 3.0 1.2 1.4 0.1 0.7 0.2Disbursement _ 7r- Tfl 17 T5 lTv 09 0Amortization - - - - 0.1 - - - - - -0.8 - 0.2Domestic financing, net -0.5 -2.1 0.8 -0.2 -3.6 1.2 0.2 -0.2 -6.1 -8.G -10.0 -13.9 -20.9

1/ Includes National University, Social Security Institute, National Agrarian Institute, National Social Welfare Board.

2/ National Lottery is included.

3/ Professional Development Institute has been added.

4/ JUPE and IJPM Sve been added.

Page 4 of 6

Table 5.1: HONDURAS: PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS

( Millions of Current Lempiras)

1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

IV. General Goverment (I+II+III)

Current revenue 86.7 128.2 140.5 152.9 170.4 181.1 208.0 204.6 232.1 272.7 323.6 369.5 440.3

Of which transfersfrcm public enterprises (3.5) (4.0) (3.4) (5-1) (5.0) (4.6) (3.9) (14-3) (3-1) (0.2) (_) () (-)

Current expenditure 71.7 106.3 119.9 130.3 142.7 175.6 174.4 185.8 224.4 229.6 259.5 3314.1 398.1

Of which transfersto public enterprises (_) (-)) (_) (_) (_) (_) (W) (0.9) (1.4) (-) (1.0) (_) (-)

Current surplus (+), deficit (-) 15.0 21.9 20.6 22.6 27.7 5.5 33.6 18.8 7.7 43.1 64.1 35h 142.2

Capital receipts 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 2.0 2.8 1.4 2.3 1.0 2.1 5.0

Investment expenditure 21.2 20.5 30.2 37.6 38.1 59.2 72.7 66.9 48.3 62.5 110.2 130.4 14 6.7

Of which transfersto public enterprises (0.5) (2.7) (3.9) (4.7) (4.7) (5.3) (4.1) (2.7) (1.2) (4.0) (6.8) (17.7) (16.4)

Overall surplus (+), deficit (-) -5.4 2.2 -8.6 -14.6 -9.7 -52.8 -37.1 -45.3 -39.2 -17.1 _45-1 -92.9 -99.5

External financing, net 7.5 1.3 4.7 7.6 13.8 25.0 16.0 37.4 20.6 20.2 46 88.1 88.4

Disbursament I 4. 7. 3 7 IT m ; F 5 4 " 7 r E 56. 0 -6.4 97.1

Amortization -3.5 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.8 4.0 4.4 5.5 6.4 7.6 9.3 8.3 8.7

Domestic financing, net -2.1 -3.5 3.9 7.0 -4.1 27.8 21.1 7.9 18.6 -3.1 _, i 4.9 n .1Banking system, net - -7 .2jj -6. 4 e Iv7 7- TIT , .. T .6 -3- 1.9 U

Other, net _ 3.7 10.3 4.2 0.2 10.0 -3.6 -7.2 9.5 -6.7 1.7

Page 5 of 6

Table 5.1! HONDURAS: PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS

(Millions of Current Lempiras)

1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970-1 1971-1 1972Y/ 1973 1974 1975 1976

V. Public Enterprises

Current revenue 10.7 21.0 25.4 33.0 35.7 38.3 44.0 50.0 37.8 40.6 71.1 92.0 105.6Current expenditure 9.8 18.3 20.0 23.9 26.4 27.1 31.8 34.3 26.4 24.9 40.8 66.2 76.5

Transfers to autonomous institutions (3.5) (4.0) (3.4) (5.1) (5.0) (4.6) (-) (-) (_) (-) (-) (-) ()Transfers to Central Government (_) (-) (_) (_) () (_) (3.9) (.) (_) () (_) (2.0) (4.5)

Current account surplus (+), deficit (-) 0.9 2.7 5.4 9.1 9.3 11.2 12.2 15.7 u.4 15.7 30.3 25.8 29.1

Capital receipts 0.5 2.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.3 7.3 3.3 3.2 6.6 10.8 17.7 16.4Of which transfers from Central

Government (0.5) (2.7) (3.9) (4.7) (4.7) (5.3) (4.1) (2.7) (1.2) (4.0) (6.8) (17.7) (16.4)

Investment expenditure 2.5 8.0 9.4 13.6 25.0 35.5 38.9 16.7 17.7 36.4 62.2 67.5 75.0

Overall surplus (+), deficit (_) -1.1 -2.5 1.0 0.5 -10.7 18.0 -19.4 2.3 -3.1 -14.1 -21.1 -24.0 -29.5

External financing, net 1.3 5.1 1.9 3.1 4.4 1i.6 i8.4 7.0 5.4 12.0 14.7 23.1 31.9Disbursements 6 2. I 7. 1 1 2 30.0 41.5Amortization - 1.1 0.8 1.4 2.7 2.2 2.4 3.0 4.4 6.6 5.4 6.9 9.6

Domestic financing, net -0.2 -2.6 -2.9 -3.6 6.3 3.4 1.0 -9.3 -2.3 2.1 6.4 0°9 -2.3Venezuelan oil fund - - - - - - - - - - - - -

17 Includes National Electric Power Company, National Railway Company, National Water and Sewerage Service, National Lottery, National PortAuthority, National Housing Institute.

2/ National Lottery has reclassified as an autonomous institution.

Page 6 of 6

T-able 5.1: HONDURAS i PUBLIC SECT(R OPERATIONS


1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

VII. Public Sector

Current revenue 93.9 145.2 162.5 180.8 201.1 214.8 248.1 249Ai 265.4 313.1 394.7 450.5 545.9Current expenditure 78.0 120.6 136.5 149.1 164.1 198.1 202.3 214.9 246.3 254.3 300.3 389.3 474.6

Current surplus (+), deficit (-) 15.9 21.6 26.0 31.7 37.0 16.7 45.8 34.5 19.1 58.8 94.4 61.2 71.3

Capital receipts 0.8 0.9 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.9 5.2 3.ht 3.h 4.9 1.0 2.1 5.o

Investnent expenditure 23.2 25.8 35.7 46.5 58.4 89.4 107.5 80.9 6 4.B 94.9 161.6 180.2 205.3

Overall surplus (+), deficit (-) -6.5 -0.3 -7.6 -14.1 -20.4 -70.8 -56.5 -43.0 -42.3 -31.2 -66.2 -116.9 -129.0

External financl g, net 8.-8 6 6.6 1].Q 18. 2 2 6 lkk 4" 26.0 E . 614 111.1 120.3Disbursement 1 11.3 10.5 14.6 23.7 23.7 45.8 41.0 52.8 36.6 0-.t 7 .1 126. -3Akortization 2.5 4.1 3.4 3.9 5.5 6.2 6.6 8.4 10.8 14.2 -14.7 -15.3 -18.3

Domestic financing, net - -6.1 1l0 3 2 2 .2 22.1 X 1 6.3 -1.0 4.8 5. 8 aBanking system, net 7 -7.2 2.8 -5.3 14.5 27.7 16.1 9.9 9 7 3.1 0.7 .Other, net - 8.2 o.6 7.5 16.7 -5.6 -17.5 6.4 -8.4 1.7 5.1 2.1

Financed by Venezuelan Oil Fund - - - - - - - (5-0) (11-0) (9.0)

I Excludes disbursements on loans channeled through financial institutions, such as BANAFOM, the Central Bank of Honduras and CONADI.

Source: Central Bank.

TVble 5.2: HONDURAS, CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT REVENUE, 1967-1976(MILLIONS nFr C(PiPFNT IFMP1RAq)

D I S TR I B U T I O N

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976_ -_ _ __ _ _________------------- ---- _ -- _____----____ ---- ____----- ____ --- _____---- _____----____-----____-----____---

tAX REVENUE 118.1 134.8 139.0 158.5 161.1 163.3 194.7 228.3 249.3 311.0…__ _ _ _ _ _ - - - - --- - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - --- - - - - - - - - --- - - - - - - - - -- - - - --- - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - --

ON INCOME AND PROPERTY 35.5 40.9 44.3 46.5 43.7 41.6 .50.0 67.6 77.3 76.2…__ _-… - ------- - --- - ----- - ---- - --- --- --- --- --- -- --- - ----- --- - -_ - - -…-- - --- -- ---- -- - --- -

8ANANA COMPANIES 12.3 13.6 14.1 11.3 5.6 2.6 6.6 6.9 OTHER COMPANIES 17.2 20.2 22.5 23.8 28.0 27.9 29.6 41.4 54.2 52.1PERSONAL INCOME 4.4 5.3 6.3 6.9 7.9 9.1 11.2 17.1 20.1 21.3INHERITANCE & GIFT 0.7 0.7 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 1. 0.9PROPERTY 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.8OTHER 0.2 0.1 0.2 2.5 0.3 - 0.3 O.1 0.1 Q.I

ON DCMESTIC TRANSACTIONS 37.0 43.4 49.7 61.5 62.8 68.9 77.0 80.9 87.7 105-i…__ _ _ _…_ _ - - - --- - - - - - - - - - -- - - --- - - - - - - - - --- - - - - - - - - - -- - - - -- - - - - - _ -- - _ _ _ -- - - - - - - - _ _…_ _ _ _

SALES 8.7 9.5 9.7 11.0 11.7 12.1 15.0 16.7 17.9 24.7BEER 9.3 10.2 11.2 12.7 14.6 16.4 17.2 15.9 16.8 17.1LIQUOR 7.1 8.0 8.3 9.6 10.1 9.9 11.4 12.2 13.7 18.3CIGARETTES 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.9 9.4 10.8PEIROLEUM PRODUCTS - 1.1 4.7 8.7 9.8 12.1 12.9 12.3 13.0 14.1NEW VEHICLES 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.8 2.1 2.5VEHICLE LICENCES 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.8CONSJMPTION - 1.4 2.1 4.4 0.1 - - - _ -SUGAR 1.4 1.3 2.o 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.7OTHER 4.3 4.7 4.1 5.4 6.0 7.5 S.7 10.5 10.5 13.1

ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE 45.5 50.3 44.8 50.4 54.5 57.7 67.6 79.7 84.1 129.5…________ --------- --------- __ -_____ --------- -------- - -_---…--- _ __ --- -----

IMPORT TAXES 41.1 43.8 39.2 44.6 48.2 51.7 56.2 64.9 61.8 E0.4EXPORT TAXES 4.4 6.5 5.6 5.8 6.3 6.0 11-4 14.8 22.3 49.1

COFFEE 2.8 4.6 3.4 3.7 4.0 3.6 6.6 4.6 8.4 26.1BANANA 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 8.2 12.0 22.1OTHER 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 4.1 2.0 1.9 0-9

MISCELLANEOUS TAXES 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2…-- - - - - -- - - ---- - - - - -- - - - -- - - --- - - - -- - - - --- - - - - - - - - - --- - - - - - - - -- - - - - _ _ _ - -- - - -- - - - - - - - - --

NON-TAX REVENUE 10.8 12.0 16.9 31.6 23.0 31.9 32.6 45.0 56.6 54.9…__ _ _ _…_ _ - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

PUBLIC SECTOR TRANSFERS 1.8 1.8 1.9 3.9 4.3 8.5 4.7 0.1 7.1 5.3OTHER 1/ 9.0 10.2 15.0 27.7 18.7 23.4 27.9 44.9 49.5 49.6

CURRENT REVENUE 128.9 146.8 155.9 190.1 184.1 200.2 227.3 273.3 305.9 365.9*Source= :35k=,n s==== =Cens=ra B== 9 D S*-5flf c=rf=s=== = n==mUss =SS= S * *S..U==U .. f-.*.u*

Source: C:entral Bank.

Table 5.3;HoNDuRAs; CENTRAL GOVERNMENr CURRENT REVENuE, 1967-76

(PERCENTAGES)

D I 5 T R I B U T I O NI T E M - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - -- - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976…-- - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - -- _ _-- -- - - - -_ _-- - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - -_ _ __-…-

TAX REVENUE 91.6 91.8 89.2 83.4 87.5 84.1 85.7 83.5 51.5 95.0…________ --------- --------- --------- -- ----- _ _ -_ ____ _-- ----- --- … -________ -- - ----

ON INCOME AND PROPERTY 27.5 27.9 28.4 24.5 23.7 20.8 22.0 24.7 25.3 20.8

BANANA COMPANIES 9.5 9.3 9.0 5.9 3.0 1.3 2.9 2.5 - _OTHER COMPANIES 13.3 13.8 14.4 12.5 15.2 13.9 13.0 15.1 17.7 14.2PERSONAL INCOME 3.4 3.6 4.0 3.6 4.3 4.5 4.9 6.3 6.6 5.8INHERITANCE & GIFT 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2PROPERTY 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0°.t 0.5OTHER 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.3 0.2 - 0.1 - - -

ON DOMESTIC TRANSACTIONS 28.7 29.6 31.9 32 .4 34.1 34. 4 33.9 29.6 28.7 28.7

SALES 6.7 6.5 6.2 5.8 6.4 6.0 6.6 6.1 5.9 6.8BEER 7.2 6.9 7.2 6.7 7.9 8.2 7.6 5.8 5.5 4.7ALCOHOL 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.0 5.5 4.9 5.0 4.5 4.5 5.0CIGARETTES 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 3.1 3.0PETROLEUM PRODUCTS - 0.7 3.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 5.7 4.5 4.2 3.9NEW VEHICLES 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7VEHICLE LICENCES 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 o.6 0.5 0.6 0.5CONSUMPTION - 1.0 1.3 2.3 0.1 - - - -SUGAR 1.1 0.9 1.3 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.0 0.8 0.7OTHER 3.3 3.2 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.6

pN INTERNATIONAL TRADE 35.3 34.3 28.7 26.5 29.6 28.8 29.7 29.2 27.5 35.4

IMPORT TAXES 31.9 29.8 25.1 23.5 26.2 25.8 24.7 23.7 20.2 22.0EXPORT TAXES 3.4 4.4 3.6 3.1 3.4 3.0 5.0 5.4 7.3 13.4COFFEE 2.2 3.1 2.2 1.9 2.2 1.8 2.9 1.7 2.7 7.1BANANA 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 3.0 3.9 6.0OTHER 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.2

MISCELLANEOUS TAXES 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - 0.1 0.1

NON-TAX REVENUE 8.4 8.2 10.8 16.6 12.5 15.9 14.3 16.5 18.5 15.0----- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----------- -…

PUBLIC SECTOR TRANSFERS 1.4 1.2 1.2 2.1 2.3 4.2 2.1 - 2.3 1.4OTHER 7.0 6.9 9.6 14.6 10.2 11.7 12.3 16.4 16.2 13.6

CURRENT REVENUE 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0Sousrce: sn.us=sa ssuSs SSSSS SpUWS==*= n.m...:. .*ug=...s Central.. BankUU ...S-.-


Table 5.4: HONDURAS; CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE BY ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION, 1967-76eI Al I Into flnF i FMPApta

D I S T R I 6 U T I O NI T E M ----- - -- T-R I --1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976____________________________________________________________________________________________________---

CURRENT EXPENDITURE 113.4 125.9 154.3 158.1 164.2 192.8 188.6 224.6 288.3 352.3…… …… …… …… --________ ---- - ---- -- _ _ _ - - --- ----- - --- ------ - --- -- - -- _ _ _ _ __

WAGES AND SALARIES 64.9 66.0 77.0 8L.o 102.3 321.3 124.0 134.7 164.1 t78.2GOODS AND SERVICES 19.8 28.3 33.7 36.7 39.6 35.1 30.1 44.3 49.3 91.0INTEREST 4.3 4.8 5.4 7.4 10.3 12.6 14.2 15.1 22.3 19.9DOMESTIC DEBT 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.7 7.4 5.2 5.8 6.5 7.6 8.8EXTERNAL DEBT 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.7 2.9 7.4 8.4 8.6 14.7 11.1TRANSFERS 24.4 26.8 24.4 19.5 12.0 23.8 29.? 30.5 39.7 42.6TO PRIVATE SECTOR 5.4 5.3 5.2 7.2 _ 8.8 U. 10.6 2.8 9.2TO PUBL.ENTERPRISES - - - - 0.9 - - 2.b -TO AUTON.INSTITUTIONS 17.1 19.7 17.5 10.4 8.8 12.7 9.6 17.6 32.0 31.4TO MUNICIPALITIES 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 - - - -ABROAD 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.0EMERGENCY EXPENDITURE - - 13.g 8.5 - - - _ _ _DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURE - - - - - - - 12.9 20.6

INVESTMENT EXPENDITURE 31.1 35.0 50.6 65.6 61.7 50.4 62.6 100.0 135.0 136.5

FIXED CAPITAL 19.6 22.7 38.6 50.0 46.3 37.6 40.9 61.8 80.: 89.3FINANCIAL 0.2 1.0 0-2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.7 - 0.3TRANSFERS 11.3 11.3 11.8 15.2 15.2 12.5 21.5 34.5 54.9 46.9TO PRIVATE SECTOR 0.1 - 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 o.2 - 0.3 0.3TO PUBL.ENTERPRISES 4.7 4.7 5.3 4.2 2.7 1.2 4.0 6.8 17.7 16.4TO AUTON.INSTITUTIONS 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.4 3.9 7.2 8.6 11.0 7.5 5.7TO MUNICIPALITIES 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 5.1 2.2TO STATE BANKS 4.0 4.0 4.0 8.3 7.8 2.9 8.2 16.2 24.3 22.3TOTAt EXPENDITURE 144.5 160.9 204.9 223.7 225.9 243.2 251.2 324.6 423.3 488.8cas===ca= 30nrf====l ttnta~ m cs*tcn= £cersz= S rr== sltm.r=l zn.r..s.sa tStsinSZs SflSS..

SOURCE: MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Table 5.5' HONDURAS: SUMMAR! OF PUBLIC SECTCI INTRA-SECTORAL TRANSFERS

(millions of current lempiras)

1960 1965 1970 -1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

I. Transfers from the Central Government

TOTAL TRANSFERS 7.1 15.3 i8.4 17.4 20.5 22.1 36.0 a 55.7Current Transfers 34.6 IT--

Municipalities 57 0 5 0 -- --Autonomous institutions 4.9 I/ 12.4 1/ 10.4 8.8 9.5 9.0 17.6 32.0 31.4

National Social Welfare Board -- 1.2 3.7 1.8 2.8 3.1 5.3 6.3 7.1National University 1.5 1.9 5.0 5.6 6.o 5.9 8.4 10.1 I1.4National Agrarian Institute -- 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.7 3.9 9.7 12.IJPM -- -- -- -- 5.9 09Professional Development Institute -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Social Security Institute -- 0.8 -- -- -- -- -- - --

Public enterprises -- -- -- 0.9 7.4 -- -- 2.8 --Capital Transfers 1. 2.76 6 . 9.4 13.1 l.3 . 24.3Municipalities -- _- 0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 > 2.Autonomous institutions 1.0 __ 1.4 3.9 7.2 8.6 U.0 7.5 5.7

National Social Welfare Board -- -- -- -H °.4 1.7 ". *.o T.National University -- -- -- 0.9 1.2 -- 1.2National Agrarian Institute -- -- 1.4 3.1 6.8 6.o 4.0 6.5 3.5Professional Development Institute -- -- -- -- -- 2.6 -- --Social Security Institute 1.0 -- -- -- -- -- 1.2 -- --

Public enterprises 0.5 2.7 4.1 2.7 1.2 4.0 6.8 17.7 1.6.4National Water and Sewerage Service -- 114 IT: ¶i r -I:TF 1 1T7 I1.9National Housing Institute 0.5 1.0 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.7 5.6 3.3 3.1National Electric Power Company -- 0.3 -- 0.5 -- -- -- -- 1.5

II. Transfers from Public Enterprisoe

TOTAL TRANSFERS 3. 4.0 3.9 4.3 3.1 0.2 -- 2.0 4.5Current Transfers 43 flu - 1j 7 -T1 0,2 -- -- --

National Child Welfare Institute 3.5 4.0 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Central Government -- -- 3.9 4.3 3.1 0.2 -- -- --COHDEFGR -- -- -- -- -- 2.0 4.5

III. Transfers from Autonomous Institutions

TOTAL NSF -- 2.6 -- -- 5.4 4.5 4.2 , SAi.Current Transfers _ __7i 4i3 T2 -- __

Central Government __ 2.6 - -- 5.4 4.5 4.2 5.1 5.6

J Includes transfers to semi-official institutions and decentralized agencies which became part of the Central Government in 1970.


Table 5.6: PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS PROJECTIONS, 1977-81


A c t u a 1 Estimate1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981

Central Government

Current revenues 1/ 303.9 365.9 456.9 517.3 568.2 617.9 680.4Less: current expenditures- 288.3 352.3 390.0 454.o 498.5 561.5 616.0Current savings 15.6 13.6 66.9 63.3 9f.7 56.4 64.4Savings of the rest of thePublic Sector 45.6 57.7 70.0 82.5 86.6 91.0 95.5

Savings of the Public Sector 61.2 71.3 136.9 145.8 156.3 1TT47 159.9

Capital revenues 2.1 5.0 6.o 6.o 7.0 7.0 8.0Revenues available 63.3 76.3 142.9 151.8 163.3 154.4 167.9

Capital Expenditures 180.2 205.3 254.0 339.9 437.3 435.5 473.4Fixed investment (152.8) (182.9) (232.4) (314.9) (412.3) (408.3) (443.4)

Overall Surplus (+) orDeficit (-) -116.9 -129.0 -111.1 -188.1 -274.0 -280.9 -305.5

External Financing (net) 111.1 120.3 113.5 163.8 225.2 216.3 232.7Disbursements 2/ 126.4 138.6 151.1 203.0 266.8 263.7 290.3Existing Debt (Dec/31/76) (126.4) (138.6) (129.4) (92.8) (72.2) (45.6) (25.6)New Debt (-) (-) (21.7) (110.2) (194.6) (218.1) (264.7)Amortization -15.3 -18.3 -37.6 -39.2 -41.6 -47.4 -57.6

Domestic Financing (net) 5.8 8.7 -12.4 4.3 18.8 14.6 2.8New Tax or other RevenueMeasures - - - - 10.0 30.0 50.0

Venezuelan Oil Fund 10.0 20.0 20.0 20. 0GDP Deflator (1976 = 100) 92.1 100.0 110.0 117.7 125.9 134.8 144.2

1/ Includes development expenditures.2/ Excludes disbursements on loans channeled through financial intermediaries, such as BANAFOM, the Central

Bank of Honduiras and CONADI.Source: Mission estimates.

Table 5.7: PUBLIC FIXED INVESTMENT BY SECTOR, 1976-82


Actual Estimate1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

A. Infrastructure 115.2 149.2 199.0 252.0 265.0 292.2 326.5

1. Transport 66.1 73.3 112.0 108.0 98.0 92.0 73.02. Power 39.7 41.9 57.0 ].26.o i6o.o 192.0 241.03. Communication 9.4 34.0 30.0 18.0 7.0 8.2 12.5

B. Productive Sectors 18.2 21.2 50.0 99.0 88.0 86.o 68.o1. Agriculture 10.3 11.7 19.4 27.0 22.0 25.0 38.02. Forestry 7.3 7.0 26.0 68.o 58.0 41.0 13.03. Tourism o.6 2.5 4.6 4.o 8.0 20.0 17.0

C. Social Sectors 149.5 62.0 65.9 61.3 55.3 65.2 57.0

1. Education 10.8 17.2 16.6 10.3 9.6 11.1 12.02. Health 11.7 12.0 15.0 19.0 15.0 11.0 10.03. Water and sewerage 15.0 15.0 19.0 19.0 20.0 26.0 18.04. Housing 2.0 5.5 6.o 5.0 5.0 11.0 10.05. Urban development 10.0 12.3 9.3 8.0 5.7 6.1 7.0

Total 182.9 232.4 314.9 412.3 408.3 443.4 451.5

GDP Deflator (1976=100) 100.0 110.0 117.7 125.9 134.8 144.2 154.3Total (at 1976 prices) 182.9 211.3 267.5 327.5 302.9 307.5 292.6


Table 6.1: SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE eANKING SYSTEM. 1967-7'6.(MILLIONS OF tEMPIRAS1

D I S T R I B U T I 0 N

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES,NET 28.4 52.6 46.1 18.0 29.3 53.2 60.0 23.5 57.3 103.4…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ - - - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ _ -_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - - - - - - - - - - - - --- - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

FOREIGN ASSETS 49.7 62.8 57.1 47.4 54.2 60.2 79.3 103.3 216.7 289.7NET IMF POSITION 4.5 4.5 9.5 - - - 15.1 -40.1 -40.1 -40.1SHORT-TERM LIABILITIES -25.6 -14.7 -20.5 -29.4 -24.9 -27.0 -34.4 -39.7 -119.3 -1I6.2

DOMESTIC ASSETS 257.2 279.7 343.8 419.5 447.2 502.0 611.3 699.1 877.6 1052.1

CREDIT TO CENTRAL GOV'T,NET 12.2 9.3 24.5 49.2 64.2 73.4 77.0 76.3 86.6 103.8

CREDIT TO RESt OF PUBLICSECTOR,NET 1.5 -0.9 -1.6 4.6 5.9 6.7 10.5 9.4 -0.6 -10.3

OFFICIAL CAPITAL . RESERVES -42.4 -49.8 -58.0 -63.9 -71.3 -62.1 -90.7 -103.1 -117.4 -136.8CREDIT TO DEVEL. FUND,NET - - - - -3.4 -6.1 -4.1 2.6 6.2 5.2CREDIT TO NONBANK FIN'L

INTERMEOZARIES - - - - 0.2 0.1 - 1.2 0.5 1).CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR 213.8 242.6 296.7 347.3 369.0 413.4 507.5 581.1 697.0 837.2SUBSCRITPIONS TO INT'L

AGENCIES,NET 7.5 9.2 10.6 13.0 10.6 11.6 13.5 22.8 27.6 25.2UNCLASSIFIED ASSETS.NET 64.7 66.6 68.2 69.1 71.4 82.2 95.2 100.8 170.2 226.0INTERBANK FLOAT -0.1 2.7 2.2 0.2 0.4 2.8 2.4 7.4 7.5 o.L

TOTAL ASSETS 285.6 332.3 389.9 437.5 476.5 555.2 671.3 722.6 934,9 115-.5Us0s=S=n *rSt==-S ===== ==t±== =====- -===-== ===.=== =U=U==a== *sstSr=a ^a-SSSSSS

ALLOCATION OF SDR'S - - - 6.4 11.7 18.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.6…-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --- -- - - - - - - ----- …

LIABILIIIES TO NONBANI F&N'IL

INTERMEDIARIES - - _ _ _ 2.5 4.8 7.2 7.7 8.2-__ _ _ _…_ _ - - - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ -_ _ - - - - - - - -

FOREIGN LIABILITIES(MEDSLT) 32.2 42.9 47.9 48.0 45.4 58.6 73.7 89.0 216.6 249.3…-__ _ _ _ _ _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __- - … - - - - - -

LIABILITIES TO CONADI - - - - - _ _

LIABILITIES TO PRIVATE SECTOR 253.4 2B9.4 342.0 383.1 419.4 475.6 572.3 605.3 690.1 877.L

MONEY 120.2 135.2 157.4 161.3 171.6 195.7 242.0 244.7 266.1 359.5CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION 53.8 59.6 71.7 75.1 78.4 88.1 110.0 106.3 113-. 169.1

SIGHT DEPOSITS 66.4 75.6 85.7 S6.2 93.2 107.6 132.0 138.4 153.0 10C.0QUASI-MONEY 91.8 109.4 136.6 167.4 192.7 219.8 265.5 287.1 336.2 1lI.8

TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS 68.2 60.3 101.2 126.7 146.5 164.1 199.4 209.6 238.4 2cC.5

SPECIALIZED SAVINGS 13.3 14.1 15.6 17.5 17.5 16.6 19.6 22.5 25.9 3C.3


Table 6.2: HONDURAS; BANKING SYSTEM DISTRIBUTION OF NEW LOANS, 1967-76(MILLInNS OF IEMPIRAS)

D I S T R I B U T I O NITEM……………………__…_…

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

AGRICULTURE 51.5 60.1 83.6 115.5 12t.5 144.4 153.3 143.0 156.4 240.5

BANANAS - - - 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 - -

COFFEE 10.7 12.5 24.4 33.8 33.5 28.7 34.3 30.8 34.5 117.3TOBACCO 3.8 1.9 2.1 2.4 1.9 4.8 3.6 4.0 - -COTTON 10.7 10.2 8.2 5.0 3.3 5.6 7.9 10.2 7.9 4.8SUGARCANE 1.7 1.7 3.9 4.3 5.1 4.2 6.1 5.4 - -RICE 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.9 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.9 -CORN 2.6 2.0 4.0 4.6 4.3 4.6 4.4 6.9 23.6 16.7BEANS 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.8 - _OTHER 4.0 B.8 10.5 9.9 9.6 8.0 9.9 9.8 39.0 38.2CATTLE 14.2 18.3 24.8 40.1 47.3 68.8 63.2 51.7 34.9 35.1FISH AND FOWL 1-7 3.4 4.2 11.6 12.1 14.7 18-5 17.0 16.5 28.4

INDUSTRY 47.3 51.9 75.3 104.0 103.9 102.4 137.3 128.6 147.1 190.3-_______ ___ ----- ----- --------- --------- --------- --------- -- --- --- --------- --

MANUFACTURING 41.2 51.6 72.1 102.5 102.3 102.0 137.0 128.5 146.7 189.9MINING 6.1 0.3 3.2 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0-4

SERVICES 17.3 20.9 28.0 28.9 34.9 27.8 31.6 65.3 86.5 89.5

TRANSPORT.8COMMUNIC. 17.3 20.9 26.0 12.7 14.4 10.1 10.9 11.6 15.4 21.0OTHER _ - 16.2 20.5 17.7 20.7 53.7 71.1 68.5

REAL ESTATE 26.4 31.8 41.0 56.7 60.3 64.9 70.6 70.9 83.5 96.5…-_______ ___ -__ _ --------- --------- --------- _ - --__ _ -_ _ - --_ _ _ _- _ _ _ _ _ _____ _ _- -- --- -

CONSTRUCTION _ _ 48.8 49.7 47.9 50.9 57.0 63.8 78.5TRANSFERS 26.4 31.8 41.0 7.9 10.6 17.0 19.7 13.9 19.7 18.0OTHER

C.lMERCE 73.8 60.9 72.2 84.9 71.0 109.1 147.1 169.9 203.8 280.1…-_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - - - - - ---- - …- …-- - -

INTERNAL - 22.4 25.1 33.6 33.6 56.1 81.7 99.6 94.2 146.4EXPORTS 73.8 5.0 10.5 9.7 7.5 13.3 18.3 26.5 36.1 44.4IMPORTS - 33.5 36.6 41.6 29.9 39.7 47.1 43.8 73.5 89.3

CONSUMPTION 19.9 1t.5 24.3 29.9 25.9 33.2 35.4 31.2 32.8 42.1…_ ______ --- ------ - ----- - -- -- ------- --------- -------- - -_-_ - -…--- --- ------ -- - ---

OTHER - 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.5 2.9 2.5 4.7

TOTAL 236.2 245.6 326.8 422.1 419.4 483.6 576.8 611.8 712.6 943A7SoSuSr : SCent==ral aSnS=k= S*g=,SS *u*S.r533 .... cn. *UStSSS fasnuu USU*USSin *S*9U

Source: Central Bank

Table 6.3: HONDURAS; DISTRIBUTION OF BANK CREDIT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR, 1967-76OUTSTANDING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD

(MILLIONS OF LEMPIRAS)

D I S T R I B U T I D NITEM _ _1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976…---------------------------------------_---_-----------__---------__-----_-___-_---------------

- - - - - - - -…----------- ----_ __ _ _

AGRICULTURE 61.0 74.5 90.6 106.2 116.8 129.2 149.7 176.2 208.9 233.2

BANANAS - 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.7 - -COFFEE 12.3 12.1 13.3 15.7 19.1 16.0 14.4 21.9 23.8 32.3TOBACCO 3.9 4.8 4.8 5.4 5.0 5.8 6.0 7.4 - -COTTON 10.1 10.1 14.4 B.6 8.6 10.4 10.1 13.0 10.4 to.3SUGARCANE - 4.1 5.4 5.2 6.1 5.7 7.5 7.4 - -GRAINS - 6.9 7.4 9.2 10.7 11.5 13.7 18.5 31.5 32.5OTHER 13.3 3.5 4.6 8.5 8.9 8.9 12.1 13.3 45.2 54.7CATTLE 20.0 27.4 34.3 42.0 47.7 56.3 68.6 76.3 79.6 78.2FISH AND FOWL 1.4 5.3 5.7 10-5 9.9 13.3 16.4 16.7 18.4 25.2INDUSTRY 38.8 45.7 60.0 77.9 87.0 84.3 102.8 119.7 137.8 158.8

MANUFACTURING 34.6 45.1 58.9 76.5 85.1 82.7 101.3 118.6 136.6 158.8MINING 4.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 -SERVICES 13.6 20.2 23.8 23.3 26.2 22.7 28.7 46.4 63.6 71.3

TRANSPORT.& COMMINIC. - 12.4 12.7 10.1 11.3 7.8 9.0 11.2 14.3 16.7OTHER 13.6 7.8 11.1 13.2 14.9 14.9 19.7 35.2 49.3 54.6REAL ESTATE 31.4 39.4 49.6 54.6 60.1 73:2 89.0 105.9 124.3 140.0

CONSTRUCT1ON 23.5 31.5 38.8 43.1 48.0 58.3 62.1 78.2 91.1 103.0TRANSFERS 5.3 6.9 9.6 10.8 11.7 14.4 26.7 27.3 32.9 36.8OTHER 2.6 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2COVIMERCE 48.9 38.7 47.6 52.8 45.5 65.3 92.3 83.2 104.8 140.8CONSUMPTION 12.9 11.9 14.7 18.3 17.3 23.3 25.3 21.4 25.2 30.1OTHER - 2.4 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.8 3.4 3.8 5.1

TOTAL 206.6 232.8 288.6 335.4 354.8 399.8 489.6 556.2 668.4 779.3====Z==.== = - - - - u=rsr *=w=2===, ==2t=.=.= r ... := 5===c=r= xu===ns 3=zsswr=u a---SSSU

1/ INCLUDES ONLY LOANS AND DISCOUNTSSOURCE; CENTRAL BANK

Table 7.1: HONDURAS; AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION.SELECTED PRODUCTS, 1968-77(THOUSANDS OF METRIC TONS)

…__- _ _ _ _…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __-- -- __-- - -

D I S T R I B U T I O NITEM …… - …

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977…-_ _ _ _ - - - - - - - _ _- _- - - -…-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - -_ _ - - --_ - - - - -_ - - - - - - - - - _ _ - - - - - - - - _ _- - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - -_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __- -_ _ _ _ _

BANANAS 1 280.7 1 350.9 1 280.4 1 441.7 1 546.4 1 389.4 1 365.5 1 182.3 784.8 1 058.0

COFFEE 40.3 31.2 39.9 35.6 42.2 41.9 51.0 49.2 55.3 55.7

CORN 335.4 353.0 339.2 273.5 281.8 332.0 343.0 364.0 348.5 362.2

SORGHUM 43.6 46.4 47.9 47.2 33.8 53.2 38.9 64.6 61.4 64.3

BEANS 56.9 62.8 54.7 39.3 35.0 54.5 31.6 52.6 48.3 53.1--------------- _ ___-_----------------------- ----- _----------- ____ -_---____ ---__--__--____---______-_- _____-- __-_---

SOURCE; CENTRAL BANK AND MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES

Table 8.l:HONDURAS: GENERAL PRICE INDEX BY GROUPS, 1967-76(1966 x 100)

__ - - _------_---_ _--- - ---- - --- -- - --- - - - -- - --- - - - --- - - --- - - -- - - - -- - - - --- - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --- - - ---- - - - _- -D I S T R I B U T I O NITEM --------- ~---------------------------------------------------_-__---__-___________________________

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976…-…--------------_ _ - __ - --- _-_--- - --- _ -_ -- __-----_--- ---------- __ -------- __ -__-__ -_ -- __, -_ ____-_ -___ -_ -_____-___-_ - _ __ -__ -_

FOOD 102.2 103.8 104.8 110.2 113.7 119.1 125.3 146.7 160.5 166.8HOUSING 101.1 102.7 104.0 108.4 109.3 111.9 116.5 131.1 140.5 148.8CLOTHING 103.1 106.7 108.5 109.6 111.5 115.0 124.7 134.6 140.6 147.2HEALTH 101.6 102.7 104.0 106.9 115.0 115.6 116.0 118.1 132.2 138.0PERSONAL CARE 103.4 107.3 111.2 111.2 116.7 122.2 126.6 139.7 151.9 162-5BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO 103.3 104.2 106.9 112.7 112.8 116.3 119.3 123.1 129.3 144.7MISCELLANEOUS 101.3 103.1 103.7 104.5 104.9 105.8 106.4 119.1 129.8 136.4

GENERAL INDEX 102.1 104.0 105.3 109.1 111.6 115.4 120.7 136.4 147.4 154.7-------------------------------- --- ---- -----s- --------- -- ---- -------- -- - --- -------------SOURCE; CENTRAL BANK

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Public Disclosure Authorized Memorandum on Recent Economic …documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/560141468036292660/... · 2016-08-26 · US $ 1.00 -L 2.00 L 1.00 -US $0.50 Outstanding