Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of

climate change

Prospectiva y Estrategia

www.prospektiker.es

Ibon Zugasti

i.zugasti@prospektiker.es

Turku, Finland, June 2015

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OBJECT AND SCOPE

MAIN OBJECTIVE:

To provide inputs for the strategic planning of Horizon2020 and insights for future European research andinnovation policies on the topic (WEF Nexus).

To contribute to mainstreaming climate changemitigation and adaptation research and innovation policyand strategies reinforcing considerations of water,energy and food security.

SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES:

Deliver a report fulfilling the objective of the study.

Organise a workshop.

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OBJECT AND SCOPE

SCOPE:

For each of the three sections (Water, energy and food):

• Main signals and trends of technological and societalinnovations, possible disruptive events.

• Emerging priorities for R&I and an assessment of theirpotential to catalyse business opportunities.

• Main research and innovation challenges andopportunities.

Focusing on the cross cutting aspects and inter-connections in the WEF nexus, including implications fromclimate change.

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OBJECT AND SCOPE

SCOPE:

Figure “Understanding the nexus. The water, energy and food nexus.”Source: Botín Foundation.

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WORK PLAN AND METHODOLOGY

We are here

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REAL TIME DELPHI

CHARACTERISTICS

• Real time Delphi method used, in cooperation with theMillennium Project

• Questionnaire divided in 3 parts:• 14 documented future statements/hypothesis• 3 open questions on policies, instruments andimplementation

• Last question on Disruptive Events (with 18different disruptive events)

• Questions included probability of occurrence (2020,2030 & 2050), impact on WEF Nexus and research &innovation proposals.

• 159 participants world wide

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ORIGIN OF EXPERTS

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GENDER OF EXPERTS

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FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS

1. Circular economy and resource use efficiency. Moving towards acircular economy in Europe is at the heart of the Europe 2020resource efficiency agenda. Additional measures to increase resourceproductivity and recover by 30% by 2030 could boost GDP by nearly1%, while creating 2 million additional jobs. Source: EuropeanCommission, 2015.

2. Water pollution. Increasing pressures associated with "diffusepollution" from agriculture (nitrates and fertilizers) and emergingcontaminants (pharmaceuticals and endocrine disruptors) mayprevent many European waters from achieving European waterquality standards within the next 10 to 15 years. Source: EEA, 2012

3. Groundwater. ‘Vision for groundwater governance’ aims that by2030 there are appropriate and implemented legal, regulatory andinstitutional frameworks for groundwater that establish publicguardianship, collective responsibility, and stakeholders engagement,including other uses of the subsurface space and its resources.Source: FAO, 2015

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FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS

4. Water reuse and recycling. Water reuse and recycling practicescan substantially reduce the use of water by the different sectors andhas been set as one of the European Commission’s Water Blueprintobjectives. Sources: EC, 2012

5. Food waste. Reducing world food waste and loss by a half by 2050would diminish by 22% the food production growth requirements tomeet the global food demand.

6. Ecosystem services. New methods to account for the capital andvalue of ecosystems, like the Ecosystem Capital Accounts beingdeveloped by EEA, are foreseen as the approach to deliveringecosystem accounts and have them considered in policy making inthe future. Source: EEA, 2015; EC, 2013

7. Climate change. As temperature increases, it is very likely that thenumber and intensity of hot extremes and heat waves will increaseglobally, posing important constraints to energy production. Projectedchanges in precipitation vary significantly between regions. Source:IPCC, 2013

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FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS

8. Efficient cooling. The application of efficient cooling systems forthermal power generation has a great potential to reduce water useby energy.

9. Low water consumption renewables. Photovoltaic (PV) and windhave a great potential as low carbon-low water consuming energies.Research on reducing costs and coupling to other processes toovercome the intermittency problem should be potentiated to achievemarket competence and widespread adoption. Source: EWEA, 2014;ECN, 2014

10.Fracking. Global demand for natural gas is expected to increase bymore than half by 2035, with unconventional gas accounting for 60%of global supply growth. However, there is uncertainty over thepotential development of an upscale shale gas deployment in Europedue to concerns over water management challenges and potentialenvironmental risks, together with social opposition and crossedinterests with national energy strategies. Source: IEA, 2011a

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FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS

11.2nd Generation biofuels. By 2050 biofuels provide 27% of totaltransport fuel, and avoid around 2.1 Gt CO2 emissions per year. Tomeet this vision in a sustainable way, the most cost, GHG efficientbiofuels will be needed with special preponderance of advanced waterefficient biofuels that do not compete with food. Increasing scale andefficiency improvements will reduce biofuel production costs.

12.Saline agriculture. Use of saline water for agriculture is expected toincrease. Changing to salt-tolerant crops and better watermanagement practices could help reduce dependence on freshwaterof agriculture. Source: Global Futures Intelligent System, TheMillennium Project

13.Behaviour and sustainable consumption. By 2050 the concept of‘Living well’ will be decoupled from the consumption of physicalproducts, and aligned with economic, environmental and socialsustainability. Sustainable consumption will become a mainstreamphenomenon. Source: WBCSD - World Business Council forSustainable Development, 2011

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FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS

14.Diets. Economic development and improvement of lifestyles aredriving changes in diets towards high water footprint products (meat,fish, high value vegetables). Projections for world meat demandhoover around 455 million tonnes by 2050, a 76% increase comparedto 2005 levels. Source: FAO, 2013; FAO, 2012.

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POLICIES

15.Policies. Assess the probability of each of the following policy actionsoccurring in the EU for the time horizons proposed: 1. Integration ofwater, energy and food policies; 2. Political will and transparency; 3.Adoption of participative resource governance

16.Economic instruments. Assess the probability of each of thefollowing situations occurring for the time horizons proposed: 1.Elimination of perverse subsidies and incentives; 2. Increase in theprice of water to reflect service cost; 3. Internalization of carbonpricing; 4. Increased volatility in food prices

17.Implementation. Assess the probability of each of the followingsituations occurring in Europe for the time horizons proposed: 1.Favourable regulation for technology adoption; 2.Capacity building innew technologies; 3. Effective science-policy communication

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DISRUPTIVE EVENTS:

18.DR1. Research and development in nanotechnologies causes abreakthrough in water technologies.DR2. Deployment of disruptive technologies such as LENR (LowEnergy Nuclear Reaction) at scaleDR3. Widespread application of smart grids and IntelligentTechnologies (IT) for resource management and distributionDR4. Widespread implementation of decentralized solutions in ruraland remote areasDR5. Development of advanced Carbon Capture and Storagetechnologies with minimized water requirementsDR6. New solutions for the wide deployment of cheap energy storageDR7. Massive climate change related water disasters(floods/droughts) causing crop failures and limitations to energyproductionDR8. Innovations in hydrogen technologies driving a shift of thevehicle fleet and a new alternative source of water productionDR9. Wastewater treatment plants becoming self-sufficient in energyor net energy generators

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DISRUPTIVE EVENTS:

DR10. Urban agriculture becoming widely adopted with significancecontribution to urban food supplyDR11. Regulations enabling the sale of surplus decentralized energyproduction to the grid (i.e. Net Metering)DR12. Drastic (positive) breakthrough in renewable energydesalinationDR13. Depletion of fisheries and extended degradation of aquaticecosystemsDR14. Massive migrations due to natural disasters, wars, waterscarcityDR15. Extreme social backlash against GMO’s leading to a completephase-outDR16. Widespread application of solar pumping for water extractionand distributionDR17. Committed adoption of Human Rights and SustainableDevelopment Goals driving a clear shift towards sustainableroadmapsDR18. Rapid commercial scaling up of artificial food- production

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OPEN QUESTIONS:

19.Do you think regulation is a driver or a barrier to innovation?

20.What social innovation approaches or strategies could behelpful to strengthen the potential contributions of society indealing with the water-energy-food nexus challenges?

21.Final comments on this foresight study

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ONLINE QUESTIONNAIRE:

Millennium Project Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS)

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Statements: Probability of occurrence (2020, 2030 & 2050)

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Statements: Probability of occurrence (2020)

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Statements: Probability of occurrence (2030)

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Statements: Probability of occurrence (2050)

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Disruptive Events: Impact

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Disruptive Events: Probability of occurrence (2020, 2030 &2050)

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Disruptive Events: Probability of occurrence (2020)

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Disruptive Events: Probability of occurrence (2030)

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Disruptive Events: Probability of occurrence (2050)

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LEVEL OF EXPERTISE

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SOME METHODOLOGICAL LEARNINGS…

• Do we trust our experts?

• Need to have a good sample of experts in different countries.How to give incentives for participation (money, results,…)?

• Specialised experts tend to overestimate their opinions

• The more interesting input comes usually from the comments

• Number of statements? 20-25 is usually the best, but somehad up to 100 statements and lots of answers

• Others?