Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Property insights for
ITB | 14 October 2019
Mulya Amri Ph.D | JPI Program Director @muli_amri @jakartapropertyinstitute
architecture students
JPI wants to make Jakarta a• Livable city• Affordable city• Investment-friendly city
2
TODAY’S TOPICS
A.QUICK INTRO TO THEPROPERTY INDUSTRY
B.DEVELOPER PERSPECTIVES FOR YOUR DESIGN BRIEF
Comments & questions?Ask anytime!Or go to sli.do | Use the hastag #itbjpi
QUICK INTRO TOTHE PROPERTYINDUSTRY
ROLE OF ARCHITECT1.
IN THE VALUE CHAIN
Property ManagementConstructionSales &
MarketingConcept
DevelopmentLand
Acquisition
• Ahli hukum• Konsultan properti• Konsultan
perencana• Ahli ekonomi,
keuangan, sosial, lingkungan
• Etc.
• Kontraktor• Pengawas• Supplier material• Pembiayaan• Asuransi• Etc.
• Pengelolaan• Pemeliharaan• Utilitas• Cleaning
service, security• Etc.
The Property Industry’s Value Chain
SOME KEY PLAYERS2.
IN INDONESIA
JPI members’ properties in
Jakarta
High-rise, high-density
projects
REAL ESTATE CYCLES3.
Property market follows the economy
Jakarta CBD Office MarketAround 168,000 sqm absorbed in year to date
© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Technology
Co-Working
Online Marketplaces
Travel Booking
Online Gaming
Fintech
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Ytd
-2018
Sqm
Net Absorption
Historical Average:
194,000 sqm
151,000 sqm 240,000 sqm
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Occupancy
Sqm
Supply, Demand & Occupancy
Net Absorption New Supply Occupancy
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
IDR
per
sqm
per
month Rents
Premium Grade A
© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Jakarta Retail MarketLimited new supply; F&B and entertainment tenants strong
Out with the old…Department stores and traditional retail formals
…in with the newF&B, Entertainment & Fast Fashion
Limited new supply but existing malls are changing…
E-commerce
Competing with department
stores and specialty stores
Mobile Payment
Changing the way we pay
Co-working
Spicing up tenant mixes
Social Media
Increasing foot traffic
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Occupancy
Sqm
Net absorption New Supply Occupancy rate
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
PREPARED FOR [CLIENT’S NAME]
APARTMENT MARKET
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F
CBD South Jakarta Non-prime area
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F
Low Middle Upper Luxury
19,883 17,721
12,829 7,837
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18Y
TD
20
18F
20
19F
20
20F
20
21F
Annual
CUMULATIVE SUPPLY (UNIT)
AVERAGE PRICES BY AREAAVERAGE PRICES BY SEGMENT
• The overall apartment market during the first semester of 2018 was slower with less construction and sales activities. We believe this will continue for the remainder of 2018.
• We believe that the buying capacity still remains, but at this current time it is not easy to convince investor-type of buyers to invest in property.
• Slower capital appreciation and generally sluggish rental market, as a result of stiff competition from large number of newly completed supply, have led to the postponement of apartment purchases.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
PREPARED FOR [CLIENT’S NAME]
HOTEL MARKET
ROOM SUPPLY
USD 0
USD 20
USD 40
USD 60
USD 80
USD 100
USD 120
USD 140
USD 160
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD2018
2019E 2020E 2021E
Surabaya Jakarta Bali
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E
Surabaya Jakarta Bali
AVERAGE DAILY RATE (LINE)AVERAGE OCCUPANCY RATE (BAR)
DEVELOPER PERSPECTIVES FOR YOURDESIGN BRIEF
CONSIDER1.
LAND VALUE
Why does the CBD have a distinctive skyline?
make it easier to meet PEOPLE & trigger new IDEAS!
COMPACT CITIES
Walkable districts have higher PROPERTY VALUE!
transit oriented development allows us to have MORE COMPACT and WALKABLE cities
1. Mass transit station in city center2. Without good connectivity/walkability, people must detour (or drive!) to reach the transit station.
3. Pedestrian paths should allow better connectivity4. Foot traffic creates opportunity for retail, raises property value, improves the urban environment
“Horizontal density” leads to expensive property and loss of green open space
DESIGN2.
SENSIBLY
Consider saleable/usable floor area
What the tenant/buyer gets, and is responsible for
What the property manager maintains (but ultimately paid bytenant!)
Consider building maintenance
Green buildings please!
THINK3.
LONG-TERM
Adaptive reuse: Ex-grain warehouse is now a
museum (MoCAA) with luxury hotel (The Silo) on top
Adaptive reuse: What to do with over-provided
parking space?
Adaptive reuse: Ideas for Sequis Center, Jakarta?
Adaptive reuse: Ideas for Sequis Center, Jakarta?
LET’S HAVEA DISCUSSION
Market Regulations
ConceptMarket trendsChanging demography
ZoningKLB; KDB; KDH
Kewajiban
Finance Legacy
IRRCapital structureLeasing agreementsTax structure
Iconic designEnvironmental and social impact
Prestige
Developers’ considerations
JPI is trying to make the IMB more transparent and efficient
Waktu untuk mendapatkan IMB (untuk bangunan >5000 m2)
2 tahun (630 hari)
These projects were funded by the private sector through charges for development rights
Semanggi interchange right-turn ramps
Improvement in pedestrian bridges & sidewalks
Rusun Rawa Bebek, Cakung, Jakarta Timur
Rusun Marunda, Cilincing, Jakarta Utara
Rusun Rorotan, Cilincing, Jakarta Utara
Various Public Flats
Create affordable living space in the city centre through public-private partnerships
State-owned corporations (BUMN, BUMD), have land in strategic places that are under utilized.
Sometimes, developers are responsible to provide affordable housing.
The problem: land is expensive, so the affordable flats are built in far flung areas. Therefore: unattractive!
Affordable housing cold be built on top of public markets, terminals, etc. for mutual benefit