Progression of Tasks and - 國家地震工程研究中心sshac.ncree.org.tw/download/ws3/WS3_Day1_am1_SSC... · Catalog removal foreshocks and fault rupture events – Using mainshocks

Taiwan SSHAC Level 3 PSHA StudyWorkshop #3, June 19‐23, 2017

Taipei, Taiwan

B.S. HuangSSC

TI‐Team Leader

Progression of SSC Tasks and Issues

1

SSC Technical Report

GMC Technical Report

Hazard Input Document

Taiwan SSHAC Level 3 PSHA Project Procedure

WM1

WM4

KM

Evaluation

Integration

Documentation and PPRP Review

WM2

2

WM3

WS1

WS2

WS3

2

1.

Reviewing of SSC Tasks and Progression

3

SSC Task Category in WS‐2

Task Category Items Number

1 Development of Earthquake Catalog 8

2 Areal Source 13

3 Active Fault Source 15

4 Subduction

Zone Source 9

5 GPS and Geodetic Survey 3

6 Shanchiao

Fault 5

7 Hengchun

Fault 5

8 New Issue 2

Total: 604

Task 1: Development of Earthquake Catalog

Task Item2015 2016

4th Quater 1st Quater 2nd Quater 3rd Quater 4th Quater

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1. Historical earthquake catalogue before AC.

1900.

2. Collecting the previous all available earthquake

catalogue including Taiwan and Mainland China

region and covering Lat.115 to 125, and Lon.19

to 29.

3. Select Earthquake catalogue de‐clustering

method and obtain the main‐shocks.

4. The relocation earthquake catalogue (M>=2) of

modern seismogram network in Taiwan from

1991 to Jun. 2015.

5. Remove eqk's that occurred on known faults in

the zone.

6. Correllating larger earthquakes with

seismogenic structure (active fault).

7. Determining the focal mechanism and fault

plane solution of the larger earthquake

(M>=6.5) since 1900

8. The distribution and characterization of volcanic

earthquakes in northern Taiwan.

Done

Done

Closed

Workshop #1 Working Meeting #2

Workshop #2Working

Meeting #1

Done

Done

Done

Done

5

Done

Task 2: Areal Source (1/2)

Task Item2015 2016



1. Summarize existing area zoning scheme

2. Determine seismogenic thickness.

3. Areal source boundaries Leaky or Strict.

4. Determine if areal source has the preferred

orientation of fault rupture or random.

Rupture Orientations for Future

Earthquakes.

5. Top of Rupture for Future Earthquakes

(Blind Faults?)

6. Rupture Mechanisms (Style of faulting) for

Future Earthquakes.

7. Create Truncated exponential model (G‐R

law) for areal source. There are two

regression methods : (1) Maximum

likelihood (2) Least square.

DoneDone


Workshop #2

Done

Done

Done

Working Meeting #1

Done

Done

6

Task 2: Areal Source (2/2)

Task Item2015 2016



8. Define volcanic seismicity areas.

9. The focal depth distribution of areal

source.

10. Estimating the upper bound magnitude.

And define the Mmax in each zone.

11. Rupture Dips for Future Earthquakes.

12.Invert geodetic and focal mechanism

data to identify domains of specific style

and orientation of crustal deformation.

13.Identifying seismic source zone, same

model need to consider “zoneless with

smoothing”, “seismotectonic”

and

“Mmax”

zones.

Workshop #2

Done

Done

Done

ClosedWorking Meeting #1 Workshop #1

Working Meeting #2

Done

Done

7

Task 3: Active Fault Source (1/2)

Task Item2015 2016



1. Define the parameters needed for each

active fault

2. Develop active fault database for study area.

3. Define the geometries of each active fault

for digital database. Rupture length and

area.

4. The multiple dip‐angle orientation needs to

be considered for low angle active faults in

Taiwan.

5. Seismogenic Thickness.

6. Displacement per Event for certain faults.

7. Characteristic Magnitude.

8. Determine the recurrence interval of active

fault (Youngs and Coppersmith, 1985). Time

dependent?

9. Layered branch model? Linking of active

fault segments into larger ruptures.

Done

Done


Workshop #2

Done

Done

DoneDone

Done

Done

Done

Working Meeting #1

8

Task 3: Active Fault Source (2/2)

Task Item2015 2016



10.High slip rate (>5 mm/yr) just ending

needs to be reviewed.

11.Review the scaling law for active fault in

difference mechanism.

12.Most of active fault have not enough

geological data for establishing the

recurrence model. Therefore, how to

decide the occurrence probabilistic

model of active fault?

13.Review the scaling law for interface and

intraslab of subduction zone.

14.Avoid double counting the seismic rate

and estimate the maximum magnitude of

earthquake of each areal resources of

Taiwan, espically Western Taiwan.

15. Evaluate the offshore data around

major faults near NPP4

Done

Done

Done

Done

Done

Working Meeting #2

Working Meeting #1

Workshop #1 Workshop #2

Done

9

Task 4: Subduction Zone Source (1/2)

Task Item2015 2016



1.Background rates in Taiwan are higher

than in Sumatra and Chile. Why?

2.Determine the parameters and the

columns for subduction zone interface

sources. Are they the same as active fault

table.

3. The Manila subduction extend toward

Taiwan island, where is the termination

of Manila subduction zone interface.

Done

Done

Done


Workshop #2

Working Meeting #1

10

Done

Done

Task 4: Subduction Zone Source (2/2)

Task Item2015 2016



4. Uncertainty in geometry (both dip and

lateral extent beneath Taiwan),

segmentation, slip rate, and maximum

magnitude should be fully explored.

5. Segmentation for subduction interface.

6. Consider the potential for larger

magnitudes.

7. There are splay faults in the off‐shore of

southwestern Taiwan. How to distinguish

the source between subduction zone

interface and the splay faults in the

southern subduction zone region.

8. How to estimate the M‐max of

subduction zone intraslab source?

9. What is the magnitude pdf of subduction

zone intraslab?

Done

Workshop #2

Done

Done

11

Done


Working Meeting #1

Task 5: GPS and Geodetic Survey

Task Item2015 2016



1. Do GPS and geodetic information are

proper to use for estimating the slip rate

(GPS is not long‐term slip rate)? Are GPS

data just only for reference materials?

How to use the result of PS‐InSAR and

slip deficit to facilitate estimating the

long‐term slip.

2. The strain rate and the deficit rate map

obtained by GPS could be considered for

editing the border of zoning scheme and

estimating the activity of faults.

3. To adopt GPS velocity field to estimate

the slip rate of northern and southern

subduction zone of Taiwan.

Done

Workshop #1 Workshop #2

Done

Done

Working Meeting #1

Working Meeting #2

12

Task Item2015 2016



1. Fault segmentation and mechanism: the

criteria of segmentatin, maganitude

estimation and focal mechanism.

2. Slip rate and activity: slip rate of each

scenario rupture case. On‐land and off‐

shore slip rate estimation of Shanchiao

fault.

3. Geometry of fault: rupture length,

rupture area, seismogenic structure

depth, multiple dip‐angle.

4. Historical event (1867,1694), northern

Taiwan normal fault mechanism

structure.

5. PDF of magnitude of Shanchiao fault

Estimate Characteristic earthquake and

Time‐dependent model.

Done

Done

Task 6: Shanchiao Fault

DoneWorkshop #1 Workshop

#2

Done

Done

Working Meeting #1

Working Meeting #2

13

Task Item2015 2016



1. Fault segmentation and mechanism: the

criteria of segmentatin, maganitude

estimation and focal mechanism.

2. Slip rate and activity: slip rate of each

scenario rupture case. On‐land and off‐

shore slip rate estimation of Hengchun

fault.

3. Geometry of fault: rupture length,

rupture area, seismogenic structure

depth, multiple dip‐angle.

4. Historical event, southern Taiwan normal

fault mechanism structure. Considering

the possibility of the link of Chaochou

fault and Hengchun fault, the structure

under west tableland nearby Hengchun

fault, and off‐shore part of Hengchun

fault.

5. PDF of magnitude of Hengchun fault

Estimate Characteristic earthquake and

Time‐dependent model.

Done

Done

Task 7: Hengchun Fault

DoneWorkshop #1 Workshop

#2

Done

Done

Working Meeting #1

Working Meeting #2

Task 8: New Issues

Task Item2015 2016



Issue 7: Evaluate the Offshore (West)

Hengchun strucutre

Issue 8: North Ilan Structures: geologic

mapping,

geometry and location

(offshore), and submarine volcano

Working Meeting #1 Workshop #1 On goning

Working Meeting #2

Workshop #2

15

On going

Issue Project Recommendation researcher

7 Evaluate the Offshore (West) Hengchun fault Prof. Char‐Shine Liu

8North Ilan Structures: geologic mapping,

geometry and

location

(offshore), and submarine volcano Prof. Shu‐Kun Hsu

56

task items have done

2

tasks items have closed

2

tasks items (new issue) are ongoing

SSC Tasks in Workshop #3

Total 60

Tasks

16

2.

Source models

17

Seismic Source Characterization in Taiwan

Catalog removal foreshocks and fault rupture events–

Using mainshocks Data (1900~2015/6) (from Prof. Wu)

–

Removal of 22 fault earthquake events (from Sinotech Mr. Lee)–

Removal of 1 interface earthquake event (1920, Mw 8.0, D 25km)

19

Taiwan Region

China Region

Pacific Region

For Calculation–

Check the completeness

of the catalog at the

different region–

Use the Maximum Likelihood Estimation

(Weichert, 1980) to calculate b‐

value and activity rate in each subzone

–

Check the Mmax.

in each subzone–

Various Zoning Schemes

•

A, B, S, zoneless

Areal Source ‐

Earthquake Catalog

De-clustering (after-

and fore-shocks)

declusted

19

Zoning Scheme B

20

Zoning Scheme S

21

Zoneless

22

North

5 Primary Faults South

3 Primary Faults

Primary Faults

Primary Fault: in 20 km range of each NPP sites, and will affect NPPs’

safety. 23

Western foothills belt:

Sanyi Fault：1939(Mw5.5)

Shihtan, Tuntzuchiao Fault：1935(Mw7.2)

Chelungpu Fault：1999(Mw7.65)、2009(Mw6.3)

Liuchia Fault：1930(Mw6.3)、1930(Mw6.2)

Meishan Fault：1906(Mw6.9)

Hsinhua Fault：1946(Mw6.1)

Eastern longitudinal faults:

Milun Fault：1913(Mw6.2)、1951(Mw7.3)、1951(Mw7.1)、1982(Mw6.0)

Lingding Fault：1951(Mw7.5)、1957(Mw6.5)、1992(Mw5.4)

Rueyshui Fault：1972(Mw6.8)

Luyeh Fault：1923(Mw5.2)、2006(Mw6.2)

Chihshang Fault：1951(Mw6.6)、1951(Mw7.4)、1992(Mw5.3)、2003(Mw6.5)24

Indentify onshore

faults associated earthquakes

Remove fault associated earthquakes Sinotech, 2010 & Cheng, S. N.

24

1 Shuanglienpo structure 26 Hsiaokangshan fault

2 Yangmei structure 27 Kaoping River structure

3 Hukou fault 28 Milun fault

4 Fengshan river strike‐slip structure 29 Longitudinal Valley fault

5 Hsinchu fault 30 Central Range structure

6 Hsincheng fault 31 Luyeh fault

7 Hsinchu frontal structure 32 Taimali coastline structure

8 Touhuanping structure 33 Southern Ilan structure

9 Miaoli frontal structure 34 Chushiang structure

10 Tunglo structure 35 Gukeng structure

11 East Miaoli structure 36 Tainan frontal structure

12 Shihtan fault 37 Longchuan structure

13 Sanyi fault 38 Youchang structure

14 Tuntzuchiao fault 39 Fengshan hills frontal structure

15 Changhua fault 40 Taitung Canyon Fault

16 Chelungpu fault 41 Binhai Fault

17 Tamaopu ‐

Shuangtung fault 42 North Luzon Strike Slip Fault

18 Chiuchiungkeng fault 43 North Luzon Backthrust Fault

19 Meishan fault 44 East Hengchun Offshore Fault

20 Chiayi frontal structure 45 Hengchun Ridge Offshore Fault

21 Muchiliao ‐

Liuchia fault 46 Manila Splay Fault

22 Chungchou structure 47 Ryukyu Strike Slip Fault

23 Hsinhua fault 48 Okinawa Trough Fault

24 Houchiali fault

25 Chishan fault

48 Other Faultsadd

Okinawa Trough fault

Num event Distance to Okinawa trough

fault (Dip N50o)

DIstance to I fault(Dip N55o)

a 1922/9/1 M7.7

9km depth

8.3 km (horizontal distance from

epicenter to fault)


epicenter to fault)

b 1922/9/14 M7.320km depth


epicenter to fault)


epicenter to fault)

26

Source Type of Subduction Zone

Ryukyu Subduction Zone (A – A’)1)

Interface (Depth: 0 ~ 35km)

2)

Beneath Interface Crustal (Depth: 0 ~ 35km)3)

Intraslab (35km ~ )

Manila Subduction Zone (B – B’)1)

Interface (0 ~ 50km)

2)

Beneath Interface Crustal (Depth: 0 ~ 50km)3)

Intraslab (50km ~ )

Ryukyu Subduction Zone Manila Subduction Zone

AA’’

AA

BB BB’’

11

22

AA’’AA

33

NLatitudeE

BB’’BB 11

22

33

Latitude

Subduction Interface of Ryukyu & Manila

3.

Hazard Contribution of Each Source (Source

Sensitivity)

28

Logic Tree

Fault source Northern primary faults

Southern primary faults

Other faults

: Onshore & Offshore

Subduction zone Ryukyu subduction

Manila subduction

Areal source Scheme B

Scheme

S

Zoneless

Logic Tree Node

Geometry

RuptureModel

Style of Faulting RuptureSource

Vertical Rate

Seismogenic DepthDip

Magnitude Distribution Model

Fault Geometry Model

SeismogenicProbability Magnitude pdfMax. Magn.

Activity

*Max Magn.

:•Max Magn. = Char. Magn. + 0.25 •Char. Magn. is calculated from Magnitude Scaling Law:

For Fault source: Wells and Coppersmith (1994), Yen and Ma (2011).For interface source: Strasser et al (2010) and Blaser et al (2010).

Distribution of Hazard Contribution (NPP1)

31

AEF=10 AEF=10 ‐‐44


32

AEF=10 AEF=10 ‐‐44


33

AEF=10 AEF=10 ‐‐44


34

AEF=10 AEF=10 ‐‐44

Day 1 (2017/6/19)–

SSC Tasks & Issues

•

Progression of SSC Tasks and Issues – B.S. Huang (Chaired by PM)•

SSC Sensitivity – C.H. Loh

–

Logic tree•

Current Logic tree

Principle of weighting, Scaling law – K. Clahan

–

Areal Source•

Areal Soruce, (Shallow, Deep zone and zoneless) – C.T. Cheng

•

Areal source modeling, (1.B value processing 2.Three Region boundary 3.Max. Magnitude setting 4.Volcanic source 5.Earthquake catalog application)–

C.H.

Yeh

Workshop #3 Agenda Outline in 2.5 days

35

Day 2 (2017/6/20)–

Fault source

•

Introduction of Fault source modeling – C.H. Yeh•

North Primary fault ‐Shanchiao, ST‐II, Aodi, North Ilan and S fault–

B.S. Huang

•

South Primary fault‐

Hengchun fault and West Hengchun offshore structure (Geometry of Manila subduction zone) – A.T. Lin

•

Other faults‐

Onshore and offshore faults–

C.T. Cheng

Day 3 (2017/6/21)–

Subduction zone source model

•

Ryukyu Subduction zone – C.T. Cheng •

Manila subduction zone–

A.T. Lin

Workshop #3 Agenda Outline in 2.5 days

36

Thanks for Your Attention

37

51234 6

78910

10 Issues

For Data Collection Recommendations during WS #1

Issue Project Recommendation researcher

7 Evaluate the Offshore (West) Hengchun fault Prof. Char‐Shine Liu

8North Ilan Structures: geologic mapping,

geometry and

location

(offshore), and submarine volcano Prof. Shu‐Kun Hsu

Signed Contract

Whole Taiwan Each NPP Specific FaultPlate motion analysis of GPS and

geodetic data along 5 transects

across Taiwan

LiDAR review and

interpretation of

potential faults

within 20 km of each

nuclear power plant.

Evaluate the Offshore (West)

Hengchun fault

Compilation of an updated

offshore Taiwan active fault map

North Ilan Structures: geologic

mapping,

geometry and location

(offshore), and submarine volcano

Development of a tsunami

database from available literature

Alternative GPS block

model analysis of the

approximately 50 km

radius around each

NPP

Evaluate the offshore data around

major faults near NPP4

Determination of the historical

cataloging of potential earthquake

information in Taiwan

Geologic mapping and fault activity

evaluation of the Fenggang fault

38

39


Mw 7.7, 1922/9/1, D 9km

Mw 7.3, 1922/9/14, D 20 km

Mw 7.3, 1963/2/13, D 26 km


Indentify offshore

faults associated earthquakes

Documents

Progression of Tasks and - 國家地震工程研究中心sshac.ncree.org.tw/download/ws3/WS3_Day1_am1_SSC... · Catalog removal foreshocks and fault rupture events – Using mainshocks