Progress in the Implementation of the RAPIDC Programme Johan Kuylenstierna, SEI

Progress in the Implementation of the

RAPIDC Programme

Johan Kuylenstierna, SEI

RAPIDC Structure

RAPIDC SEI Sida

PMC

Malé Declaration

APINA Air PollutionNetworks

CORNETAPCENCADAPMA

RAPIDC Structure

RAPIDC SEI Sida

PMC

Malé Declaration


CORNETAPCENCADAPMA

Indian CAD stations

10 years of data

Limited records

Pune

Bhubaneswar

Indian CAD stations10 years of data

Limited records

PuneBhubaneswar

Monitoring – Long-term trends

Sulfate in rainwater at Bhubaneswar 1997-2004

Monitoring – Long-term trends

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 20040

102030405060

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

10

20

30

40

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 200405

1015202530

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

60

80

100

120

140

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

SO4

Con

cen

trat

ions

in e

q / l

Year

NO3

NH4

Ca

Year pH

Temporal variations of pH, SO4, NO3, Ca and NH4 in rain water at Pune

urban sites during 1984 – 2004 from the CAD network (source: Rao et al.)

RAPIDC Structure

RAPIDC SEI Sida

PMC

Malé Declaration


CORNETAPCENCADAPMA

Support for the Malé Declaration

Enhancing the Malé Declaration Network

Enhancing the Malé Declaration Monitoring Capacity

Developing emission inventories, scenarios and integrated assessment

Supporting and strengthening impact assessment capacity

Support decision making for prevention and control of air pollution

Raise awareness about air pollution in South Asia

Technical A

ssistance








Technical A

ssistance

Malé Monitoring – Monthly means of SO2 2006

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

jan-06 feb-06 mar-06

apr-06 maj-06

jun-06 jul-06 aug-06

sep-06

okt-06 nov-06

dec-06

SO

2 (µ

g/m

3)

Bangladesh

India

Iran

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan (kerb site)

Sri Lanka

Male Monitoring – Monthly means of NO2 2006

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

jan-06 feb-06

mar-06

apr-06

maj-06

jun-06 jul-06 aug-06

sep-06

okt-06 nov-06

dec-06

NO

2 (µ

g/m

3)

Bangladesh

India

Iran

Maldives

Nepal


Sri Lanka

Male Monitoring – Monthly means of O3 2006

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

jul-06 aug-06 sep-06 okt-06 nov-06 dec-06 jan-07 feb-07

O3

(µg/

m3)

Bangladesh

India

Iran


Sri Lanka

EMEP Monitoring – Monthly means of O3 2005

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05

O3

(μg

/m3

)

UK (Bottesford)

Sweden (NorraKvill)

Greece (Aliartos)

Austria(Heidenreichstein)








Technical A

ssistance

Emission Inventories

Template prepared by: Stockholm Environment Institute at York (SEI-Y), UNEP RRC-AP and SACEP

Date last modified: 27/02/2007

User must enter inventory details here:

Inventory year: 2000

Region: South Asia

Country: Someland

Province: Somestate (optional)

MENU OVERVIEW

Menu1 Sectors 1. to 4. Fuel combustion activities

Menu2 Sector 5. Fugitive emissions (non-combustion) for fuels

Menu3 Sector 3. Fuel combustion activities. Sector: Transport (Detailed method)

Menu4 Sector 6. Industrial processes (non-combustion) emissions

Menu5 Sector 7. Solvent and other product use

Menu6 Sector 8. Agriculture

Menu7 Sector 9. Vegetation fires and Forestry.

Menu8 Sector 10. Waste

Menu9 Large Point sources

Sheet 9 Summary sheet - Annual emissions of each pollutant by source sector

References

Malé Emissions Inventory Workbook Template - Version 2.3 Prepared within the Sida-funded Regional Air Pollution In Developing Countries (RAPIDC) programme as a contribution towards the Implementation of the Malé Declaration on Control and Prevention of Air Pollution and its Likely Transboundary Effects

GO

GO

GO

GO

GO

GO

GO

GO

GO

GO

GO

A C E

Activity rate (kt product/

SO2

emissions

NOx

emissions

year) (Tonnes) (Tonnes)

Process Default (A x B) Default (A x D)

Pig iron production 3a 0 0.076d 0

Aluminium production 15.1e 0 2.15e 0

Copper smelting (primary) 2120f 0

Lead smelting (primary) 320g 0

(secondary) 40h 0

Zinc smelting (primary) 1000g 0

Other (please specify) 0 0

Total emissions 0 0

B

NOx emission

factor

(kg NOx/t)(kg SO2/t)

SO2 emission

factor

D

Sheet 9 Summary sheet - Annual emissions of each pollutant by source sector

Sector Sub-sector SO2 NOx CO NMVOC NH3 PM10 PM2.5

1. Combustion in the Public Electricity and Heat 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Energy Industries Petroleum Refining 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Manufacture of Solid Fuels and Other Energy 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.002. Combustion in Manufacturing Iron and Steel 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Industries and construction Non-ferrous metals 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Non-metallic minerals 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Chemicals 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Pulp, Paper and print 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Mining and Quarrying 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Please specify in sheet 1.1.1a, 1.1.1b or 1.1.1c) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Autoproduction of electricity/heat 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Remainder (Non-specified) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3. Transport Civil Aviation (Simple--not used if Detailed used) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Civil Aviation (Detailed) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Road transport (Simple--not used if Detailed used) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Road transport (Detailed) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Railways 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Navigation 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Pipeline transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Non-specified transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

4. Combustion in Other Sectors Commercial/Institutional 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Residential 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Non-specified "Other sectors" 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5. Fugitive emissions from fuels Production of coke 0.00 0.00 0.00Oil exploration and crude oil production and transport 0.00Oil refining 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Distribution and handling of gasoline 0.00

Production and distribution of natural gas. 0.00Flaring during oil and gas extraction 0.00 0.00 0.00

6. Industrial processes Mineral products 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Chemicals 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Metals 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Pulp and paper 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Food and drink 0.00 0.00 0.00Major construction site activities (Fugitive PM only) 0.00 0.00

7. Solvent and other product use 0.008. Agriculture Manure management 0.00

Application of N-containing fertilizers 0.00 0.00Burning of agricultural crop residues 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

9. Vegetation fires and Forestry On-site burning of forests and grasslands 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0010. Waste Waste incineration 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Human excreta 0.00Total anthropogenic 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total emissions (kilotonnes pollutant per year (kt/yr))

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Combustion in theEnergy Industries

Combustion inManufacturing

Industries

Transport Combustion inOther Sectors

Industrialprocesses

Agriculture

An

nu

al e

mis

sio

ns

(kt/

yr)

SO2NOxPM2.5

Preliminary emissions inventory resultsfor Pakistan (Inventory year 2005).

Future Plans

Consolidate and update national inventories

• Continued QA/QC,

• Inclusion of large point sources,

• Update inventory to 2005

Improvement of Malé emissions inventory preparation Manual/Workbook

• Improved transport emissions section

• Scenarios/policy options module

• Spatial and temporal disaggregation

• Speciation of NMVOCs into reactivity classes

• Suitable emission factors

• Include methodologies to help estimate activity data

Emission Scenarios

time

emission

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

and the other way around...

How would you like the future to look like?

‘Backcasting’

Work tasks

• Develop capacity in Scenario DevelopmentManual for the Development of Emission Scenarios for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in South Asia

• Help find best pathway for linking of inventories to scenario based tools

A focus has emerged on delivering a sound foundation rather than experimenting with example scenarios from National data.

• Deliver training in Scenarios developmentEmission Scenario introduction and application training for Malé partners: Bangkok July 06, February 07, one more in 08

Atmospheric Transport of Pollutants

• MATCH model in Malé IIAS

• Training in principles of atmospheric transport

• MATCH model installed at Malé Secretariat

Modelling projects within RAPIDC-III

Ozone modelling in South Asia for crops-impact project

Deposition-, PM-, ozone- modelling for Malé information software (IIAS)

Installation of MATCH at UNEP for usage by regional partners

Training of meteorologists in principles of atmospheric transport in July 2006 and 2007

Ozone modelling in South Asia

Modelled three-month AOT40 (accumulated over 40 ppb(v)) over snow-free land areas of South Asia during 2000.

Installation of MATCH at UNEP/RRC-AP

MATCH installed in Bangkok. Model tested. Limited training given to UNEP/RRC-AP staff. Overview lectures for Malé representatives at 2 workshops.

Large interest to run MATCH by some Malé delegates (e.g. Pakistan).

Emission inventories lacking

Technical (and practical) problems in taking care of all model results.

Emission inventory

Pollutant Emissions Atmospheric

transport

Pollutant deposition or concentration

Monitoring

Impacts on health, crops, materials and ecosystems

Driving

forcesand

scenarios

Policies for pollutant

prevention and control

Malé Integrated Information and Assessment System

INTEGRATED INFORMATION

AND ASSESSMENT

SYSTEM

Malé Declaration IIAS

Integrated Information and Assessment System

Aims of the IIAS

- integrate Malé Declaration activities, data and information

- investigate the linkages between emissions, concentrations and deposition and compare to monitoring values

- A tool to look at the risks of the regional air pollution to acidification, health and crops

- A tool to investigate the implications of scenarios including different policy interventions

Emission workbook

Emission Manual

Ecosystem sensitivity (nat.)

Risk areas

Emission inventory

Prevention Controloptions options

Policy instruments

Energy, transport and industryscenarios

Emissions by 1ox1o grid

New Deposition

Transfer coefficient (region-to-grid)

S, N Deposition (by grid)

MATCH atmospheric transport model (at SMHI/ UNEP etc.)

CURRENT STATUS

Source/receptor modelling for IIAS

Total NOX deposition in Malé domain, only emissions from Northern and Southern India, respectively

The near surface concentrations of SO2 across South Asia from the MATCH model using EDGAR emission estimates for 1995.

Emission workbook

Emission Manual

Ecosystem sensitivity (nat.)

Risk areas

Scenario

Emission inventory

Prevention Controloptions options

Policy instruments

Energy, transport and industryscenarios

Emissions by 1ox1o grid

New Deposition

Transfer coefficient (region-to-grid)

S, N Deposition (by grid)

MATCH atmospheric transport model (at SMHI/ UNEP etc.)

Health impacts

Ozone PM2.5

Crop yield losses

PHASE III: Other pollutants and impacts

Rapid Urban Assessment (RUA)

Activities

• Training in methods

• Application of RUA in Kathmandu, Nepal, 2006/07

• Top-down emission inventory for city harmonized with Malé manual

• Disaggregation of emissions using satellite data

• Dispersion modelling in urban area

• Monitoring campaign (PM/NO2)

Passive sampler campaign

• Kathmandu

10 sites bi-monthly

SO2, NO2, HNO3, PM, O3

5 sites Benzene.

Sampling initiated in November 2006.

• Mapping campaign

40 sites NO2

60 sites PM

20 sites SO2

Sampling initiated in May 2007

Kathmandu: Additional PM MonitoringTraining dustTraks

QA/QC plan

Intercomparison with passive PM10

monitor

Compliance test

Data evaluation PM10, PM2.5, Pm1








Technical A

ssistance

Human health impacts

1. Hold training workshops in assessment methods (in Bangkok October 2006 and in 2007)

2. Health study in Dhaka

Particle Size (mm)

9.2 to 30

5.5 to 9.2

3.3 to 5.5

2.0 to 3.3

1.0 to 2.0

0.1 to 1.0

Effect

Visible Pollution

Lodges in nose/throat

Main breathing passages

Small breathing passages

Bronchi

Air sacs

Schools study to determine air pollution impacts on children’s health in Dhaka

Study undertaken by MoE and NIPSOM: Questionnaire to parents. Children chosen. Staff trained and then 6 week study

Personnel: Epidemiologist, Nurse, Technicians recruited to run study

Method: 100 randomly selected asthmatic children chosen and 50 control

• 10 teachers chosen and trained

• Monitoring site near or at school

• Respirometer for all 150 children twice daily

• All symptoms recorded, all data logged and analysed by epidemiologist/ statistician

Acidification studies

Training workshops to be held in 2008 based upon manual developed

Source: Kuylenstierna et al. 2001

Terrestrial Ecosystem Sensitivity to Acidic Deposition in South Asia (preliminary assessment

Time development of acidification

Soil acidification at Mt. Lu in southern China (Zhao, 1996)

The time development of acidification of soils in South Asia

Malé Declaration Crop Impacts Study

Project activities:

• Using Indicator Plants to assess risk of ozone pollution

• Chemical protectant studies

• Ozone survey (Bhutan)

• Training

Countries:

Bangladesh Bhutan, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka

Risk assessment using Indicator Plants

Ozone induced injury on clover

1. Undertake biomonitoring study using plants sensitive to ozone

i. Grow cuttings in pots

ii. Tend plants

iii. Assess damage to plants and yield

iv. Analyse data

The ozone effect on ozone sensitive clover clones exposed to ambient air pollution levels in

Potchefstroom, South Africa in 2006

visible injury

Assessing Yield Reductions

i. Establish sites with crop plants grown in pots with standard soils and wicks to keep plants at standard moisture

ii. Spray soil of some pots with EDU (ethylene di-urea) and control pots not sprayed. EDU protects plants from ozone.

iii. Harvest plants and compare yields of protected and un-

protected crops

Pilot chemical protectant study using EDU and mung bean run in Varanasi, India

Country studies in 2007/8

Pakistan soybean cv. NARC-1 showing protective effect of EDU at a roadside rural site in Lahore,

Pakistan (photo courtesy of A. Wahid)

EDU Study results – Varanasi -EDU effect on mung bean plants exposed to ambient Ozone in 2006

Leaf number (plant-1)

0

10

20

30

40

Leaf Area (cm2)

0

200

400

600

Plant Age (Days)

Total Plant length (cm)

0

20

40

60

80

Non-EDU EDU

30 DAG 50 DAG

Weight (g plant-1)

0

2

4

6

8

Seed Pod

Number (plant-1)

0

50

100

150

200

Non-EDU EDU

*****

***

**

Malé Corrosion Activities

i. Exposing standard samples on racks4 Malé sites: India, Iran, Nepal and Sri Lanka

ii. Exposure of kitsIn Kathmandu with RUA

iii. Stock at risk trainingIn Kathmandu with RUA

Assess corrosion at sitesBattaramulla, Sri Lanka, 27 November 2006

Assess corrosion at sitesTaj Mahal, Agra, 25 November 2006

Assess corrosion at sitesTeheran, Iran, 20 November 2006

Assess corrosion at sitesKatmandu, Nepal, 14 November 2006

Results of corrosion exposure at CORNET sites in Asia and Africa

Corrosion Impact Activities

ii. Exposure of kits

- to determine relative corrosion in sites with different pollution - Expose for 1 year

iii. Stock at risk training

- identify materials in typical buildings (random inventory of 100s of buildings)- Generalise occurrence of buildings across city- Include street infrastructure and vehicle fleet- Estimate economic losses for materials with D-R relationships

Demonstrate corrosion risksKatmandu, Nepal, 14-16 November 2006

4.3.2 Demonstrate corrosion risksKatmandu, Nepal, 14-16 November

2006








Technical A

ssistance

Policy Options

• Policy case study manual by IIIEE: ‘Policy Options for Air Pollution Prevention and Control’ in South Asia has evolved as a sourcebook with regional and international examples plus context definition rather than a “review”

• Complemented by ‘Compendium of best practices on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution’ by Ram Shrestha (AIT)

• Further work on implementation issues and relevance of options to different Malé countries by SEI to be added

• Two training courses held in 2006 and 2007

RAPIDC Structure

RAPIDC SEI Sida

PMC

Malé Declaration


CORNETAPCENCADAPMA

RAPIDC Structure

RAPIDC SEI Sida

PMC

Malé Declaration


CORNETAPCENCADAPMA

• APINA is a network of policy makers, scientists, NGOs, industry and other stakeholders formed in 1998

• APINA has the objective to ensure that existing impacts of air pollution in Africa are tackled and emerging risks are prevented.

• It aims to fill the gaps in knowledge on air pollution and ensure that currently available information and concerns are articulated to policy makers in Africa.

APINA – Air Pollution Information Network for Africa

• Most of the household energy use in southern Africa is derived from biomass

• More than 90% of the electricity is derived from coal – emissions

• There is a metal industry which releases sulphur dioxide which has local and transboundary effects

• Motorised transport is increasing in the region – imported reconditioned vehicles

• Biomass burning is also a major problem and has been found to be comparable to industrial pollution

Air Pollution Issues

Like Malé, APINA carries out activities on all aspects of the air pollution policy cycle including:

• Emission inventories (similar progress to Malé, linked to ministries)

• Atmospheric transfer modelling• Deposition Monitoring• Impacts (health, crops, ecosystems, corrosion)• Rapid urban and integrated assessment• BAQ Sub-Saharan Africa (Training and Ministerial Meeting in

Nairobi July 2006)• Decision making support information

APINA Activities

RAPIDC Air Pollution Networks

APCEN – Air Pollution Crop Effects Network

CAD – Composition of Asian Deposition

CORNET – Corrosion Network

APMA – Air Pollution in the Mega Cities of Asia

APCEN – Air Pollution Crop Effects Network

Global network linking air pollution and crop effects scientists

Methods build upon successful UNECE Network activties

Project activities:

• Using Indicator Plants to assess risk of ozone pollution

• Chemical protectant studies

• Coordination of exposure experiments

APCEN – Status of pilot studies

Biomonitoring study in Potchefstroom, South Africa, using ozone-sensitive and ozone-resistant genotypes of white clover terminated in April 2006

Main results: Clover plants grew well in southern African

climate and showed slight ozone-induced foliar injury

APCEN network meetingAssessing air pollution impacts on crop productivity

September 19-21, 2006,Stellenbosch, South Africa

• To discuss and agree protocols for biomonitoring campaign

•To evaluate the status quo of APCEN and develop strategies how to expand and link the network globally

•To transfer experience in assessments of air pollution impacts on crops and air quality management tools between regions; IGAC satellite session

• To bring together regional air pollution experts, decision-makers and other appropriate stakeholders to ensure development of suitable pollution abatement strategies and discuss priorities for future


The CAD project is divided into two components:

1) Network development and best practice

2) Training scientists from Asia

Activities:

•Linkages with DEBITS, Malé Declaration, EANET, and ABC

•Inter-calibration with EANET program

•Passive sampler inter-comparison study

• CAD Workshop at IICT, Hyderabad (Dec 2006)


Outcomes:

Measurements are now being initiated at two new sites in ecologically sensitive parts of northern India: Pant Nagar and Jorhat

• An Indian Research scholar has been employed in the CAD project and several student projects, including one PhD, are being carried out using CAD data

• A comprehensive review of Indian deposition data and their interpretation has been published (Kulshrestha et al., 2005: Atmospheric Environment 39, 7403-7419). This review is to large degree based on CAD activities during the past several years

CORNET – Corrosion Network

Global network of scientists looking into the impact of ar pollution on the corrosion of materials

• Exposing standard samples on racksNetwork of sites across Asia and southern Africa

ii. Exposure of kits

iii. Stock at risk study

CORNET - progress

• Joint Corrosion and Health training for the Malé Declaration and International CORNET meeting, Bangkok October 2006

• The trend analysis started in the summer of 2005 and will be completed in connection with the 4-year samples.

The purpose of the trend exposure is to:

- establish trends in pollution and corrosion

- transfer knowledge on evaluation of specimens to the region

Corrosion ResultsPainted Steel

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

3BBSR U

rban

4BBSR R

ural

5Bang

kok

6Phra

prada

eng

7Han

oi

8HoC

hiM

inh

9Myt

ho

10Cho

ngqing

11Tie

Sha

npin

g

12Hon

g Kon

g

13Kua

la Lum

pur

14Tan

ah R

ata

15Jo

hann

esbur

g

16Kitw

e

17M

agoye

18Har

are

Dam

age

from

the

cut

/ m

m

1 Year 2 Year

Degradation of painted steel after 1 and 2 years of exposure

Corrosion Results

Portland Limestone

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

3BBSR U

rban

4BBSR R

ural

5Bang

kok

6Phra

prada

eng

7Han

oi

8HoC

hiM

inh

9Myt

ho

10Cho

ngqing

11Tie

Sha

npin

g

12Hon

g Kon

g

13Kua

la Lum

pur

14Tan

ah R

ata

15Jo

hann

esbur

g

16Kitw

e

17M

agoye

18Har

are

We

ight

Los

s /

µm

1 Year 2 Year

Recession of limestone after 1 and 2 years of exposure

APMA – Air Pollution in the Mega Cities of Asia

• Support AQM strategy formation in selected Asian cities is currently being identified.

• The benchmarking report prepared for publication and will be published by Earthscan in 2006.

• Development of an AQM information system (AMIS- Asia) for Asian cities to facilitate the transfer of AQM and best practice to support decision-making processes and strategy formation.

The Future:

Ownership

RAPIDC will not be coordinated by SEI in the future (2008-)

Direct contract between Sida and Malé Secretariat

SEI can continue to advise as required by countries/secretariat

Countries have to implement activities. RAPIDC can only provide technical assistance

Priorities:

Consolidation of Monitoring Network and activities

Implementation of emission inventories and scenarios

Implementation of impact studies

Linkage to other regional initiatives

Participants at 1st APINA emissions inventory workshop held in Blantyre, Malawi, 19th – 23rd February 2006

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Combustion in theEnergy Industries

Combustion inManufacturing

Industries

Transport Combustion inOther Sectors

Industrialprocesses

Agriculture

An

nu

al e

mis

sio

ns

(kt/

yr)

SO2NOxNH3

Preliminary emissions inventory results for 3 pollutantsby sector for Zimbabwe (Inventory year 2000).

Future Plans

Develop specialist ‘Centre for emissions estimation’ for Malé Declaration

• to coordinate emissions inventory activities

• to merge national inventories these into a regional inventory

• to coordinate reporting and compile regional overview reports

• to implement emissions scenarios (e.g. for 2025, 2050)

• to organize capacity building: training workshops, work-exchange visits,

• to coordinate activities within the atmospheric modelling centre (where MATCH model is set up) etc.

79

Backcasting

Source: Löwendahl/ www.goteborg2050.nu

”Not sustainable”

SUSTAINABILITY

TIME

Alternativescenarios

Images of the Future

”Sustainable”

Processes for change Strategy workPlanningAction plans

Descrip

tion

of p

resent state

Tren

d an

alysis

1

2

3

4

1. Present state and trend analysis

2. Envisage limits for sustainability

3. Scenario Development (possible and desirable)

4. “How do we get there?” strategies, planning and processes for change

Where to from here?

1. Build from theory into practice

2. Find mechanisms to cement knowledge in key organisations

3. Forming direct and meaningful access to decision-makers

4. Integration of tools fed by real regional data

Risk assessment using Indicator Plants

Visible injury (white rash of spots at edge of leaf) on leaf of sensitive white clover clones at pilot site in South Africa (Smit, pers. comm.)

Dose-response relationship for white-clover (from Europe), the diamond indicates the sensitive/resistant biomass ratio from South African pilot study and the dotted line an estimate of the ambient AOT40 level according to European data (Smit, pers. comm.)

Bio-monitoring and Chemical Protectant Studies

Structural formula for N-(2-(2-oxo-1-imadazolidinyl)ethyl)-N’-phenylurea

abbreviated as EDU for ethylenediurea

EDU suppresses acute and chronic ozone injury on a variety of plants under ambient O3 conditions (Godzik & Manning, 1998)

Pakistan soybean cv. NARC-1 showing protective effect of EDU at a roadside rural site in Lahore,

Pakistan (photo courtesy of A. Wahid)

Air Pollution Crop Effect Network (APCEN)

RAPIDC Approach

Modelling for IIAS

EDGAR emissions; 1°×1° resolution

TRACE-P emissions; 0.5°×0.5° resolution

Malé monitoring stations

New national emission inventory

Completedsimulations

Corrosion Impact Activities i. Exposing standard samples on racks

• to determine an absolute measure of corrosion and develop dose- response relationships

• Need to monitor SO2, NO2, O3, HNO3 and PM (total deposited) bi-monthly

• rain pH and amount (weekly)

• Need a met station measuring ToC and RH

RAPIDC Programme Purpose

‘to facilitate the development of agreements and/or protocols to implement measures which prevent and control air pollution through promoting international cooperation and developing scientific information for the policy process’

Emission inventory

Pollutant Emissions Atmospheric

transport

Pollutant deposition or concentration

Monitoring

Impacts on health, crops, materials and ecosystems

Driving

forcesand

scenarios

Policies for pollutant

prevention and control

Scientific knowledge to underpin the policy process

Documents

Progress in the Implementation of the RAPIDC Programme Johan Kuylenstierna, SEI