Professor David Cope

Director

Parliamentary Office ofScience and Technology (POST)

United Kingdom ParliamentWestminster, England

The Devastation of the Loveliest of

Lands

Presentation to STOA Workshop on Avoiding Ash Disruptions, Brussels, 23rd June 2010

Is Iceland the only problem?

Laacher See, Eifel, Germany ~13,000 BP

Chaîne des Puys , Massif Central, France ~4000 BP

Parícutin , Mexico, 1943-52

Sakurajima volcano and Kagoshima City, Japan

Is “fire and ice” a lethal combination?

Future Eruptions?

LakagigarCraterChain,Iceland

“Supervolcanoes”

Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland 2010 0.25km3

Mt St Helens, WashingtonUSA 1980 1.3km3

Mt Pinatubo, Philippines 1991 10km3

Tambora, Indonesia 1815 160 km3

Toba, Indonesia 70,000 BP 800 km3

What are the warnings?

Volcano hazard assessment always fails to answer the one question raised most frequently ... namely, when and where the volcano will erupt next.

In the absence of volcanic or seismic unrest, scientists can offer only statistical information — probabilities — about future volcanism.

US Geological Survey

Thanks to:

Carina Fearnley, University College LondonDavid Pyle and Tamsin Mather, University of Oxford

And to you for listening