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    Georgetown UniversityRedefining Geopolitical Relationships

    (INAF 515)

    Fall 2009

    Draft as of September 8, 2009Professor:Senator Chuck Hagel

    Research Assistant: Sarah King (smk66@

    Tuesdays 4:15-6:05pm

    "Nations have no permanent friends and no permanent enemies. Only permanent interests."

    --LordHenry John Temple, 3rd Viscount Palmerston

    Introduction

    Welcome to INAF 515.

    The 21st Century has ushered in a global transformation that is redefining the world order. Thistransformation is shifting geo-political centers of gravity and is re-casting geo-political

    influences as the world experiences an unprecedented diffusion of power. This course willexamine the above thesis is this in fact happening? Are the six and a half billion people in the

    world soon to be eight billion and the nations they reside in, redefining geo-politicalrelationships governed by the new realities of global challenges? Global challenges such as an

    interconnected global economy, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism,

    environmental and energy issues, pandemic health threats, poverty, despair, and newtechnologies. Are we entering a new era of global engagement and accommodation? Is all ofthis reshaping and redefining relationships? This course will focus on a wide-lens optic of global

    relationships and its impact on American foreign policy and Americas future.

    Scope and Purpose

    In this course students will examine the past, present, and future. They will seek to determine

    whether geopolitical relationships are shifting, why, and how they may be impacting the worldorder. Students will go beyond their survey of scholarly information to draw realistic and useful

    conclusions about how organizations (private, public, non-profit, transnational, etc.) and

    individuals can best prepare to take on the challenges of the 21st

    Century.

    Students will learn from and consult scholarly research, a variety theoretical perspectives, case

    studies, foreign policy leaders, and current events to contribute to class discussions, assignments,and overall expertise. We will also invite experts and leaders from the international affairs

    community to select seminars to provide on-the-ground insight. Beyond acquiring newknowledge and perspectives, building strong analytical writing and presentation skills will be

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    important. In and out of class exercises will illustrate key concepts and challenge students to bethinking, articulate, and conscientious international affairs professionals.

    Course Requirements

    INAF 515 will employ a variety of mechanisms to allow students to demonstrate their

    comprehension of topics and contribute to the classroom community. Graded assignments willconsist of one short paper (5-6pgs15%), one policy memo (1-2pgs10%), one Op-Ed (750-

    1000 words) one oral presentation/briefing and questions for other students briefings (20%), anda final paper/memo (no more than 10pgs25%). Further, class participation will be critical and

    account for 20% of each students grade. The class participation grade will be based onconsistency of quality and quantity, evaluating the students ability to bring in relevant readings,

    current events, and personal experiences to augment dialogue. Students will be expected tocreate cogent arguments and respectfully challenge their peers, professor, and guests in order to

    leave the class with well-developed conclusions about 21

    st

    Century geopolitical relationships.

    Required Text

    Students should purchase the following books:

    1) The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us And What WeCan Do About It, Joshua Ramo

    2) Power Rules: How Common Sense Can Rescue American Foreign Policy, Leslie Gelb3) The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, George Friedman4) The Post American World, Fareed Zakaria

    *Reading assignments from these texts will not be available on Blackboard

    A significant amount of reading will be assigned from the following books. All of the assigned

    reading from these books will be posted on Blackboard by the first day of class on Tuesday,September 8.

    1) World is Flat, Tom Friedman2) America: Our Next Chapter, Chuck Hagel3) The Second World, Parag Khanna4) A Brief History of the Middle East:From Abraham to Arafat, Christopher Catherwood

    Administration

    Office Hours

    Office Hours will be by appointment only due to travel schedules. Please contact Sarah King to arrange.

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    Blackboard

    All reading material beyond the four required texts will be posted on Blackboard. In an effort to use the

    most relevant sources, reading assignments will be added throughout the semester. Students will be

    notified via email when this occurs.

    Assignments

    All assignments must be turned in at the beginning of class the day they are due in both hardcopy and via

    email to [email protected].

    Assignment Due Date Grade Breakdown

    Short Paper September 25 (by 5pm) 15%

    Op-Ed October 6 10%

    Policy Memo 1 October 20 10%

    Oral Presentations Individual Date Assigned 20%

    Proposed Paper Topic November 1 --

    Final Paper December 8 25%

    Class Participation 20%

    TOTAL 100%

    Assignment Descriptions

    Short Paper: Write a 5-6 page paper reflecting Part I of the class, Defining and Redefining

    Relationships.

    Op-Ed: Write an Op-Ed for a major newspaper, between 750 -1000 words on one of the following topics:

    Oil, Gas, Water, Food, Poverty, Health, Human Rights, Waste, Population, or Climate Change.

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    Policy Memo: Write one policy memos to the US President, National Security Council (NSC),

    Congressional Committee, or foreign government entity. Tailor to your chosen audience. The topic will

    be assigned to students at least one week prior to due date.

    Oral Presentation: Prepare a briefing to the US President, National Security Council (NSC),

    Congressional Committee, or foreign government entity on assigned topic, no longer than 7 minutes.Your briefing should be clearly tailored to your audience. Be prepared for questions.

    Final Paper: Write a research paper, no more than 10 pages, on a topic of your choosing. Email

    proposed topic to [email protected] by Nov. 1

    Weekly Topics and Reading Assignments

    I. Defining and Redefining Relationships

    September 8 How do we define global

    relationships?

    Past, present, and future

    The Next 100 Years, Overture,Chapters 1, 2, 4

    Age of the Unthinkable, Chapter 1,2

    The Post American World,Chapter 1

    America: Our Next Chapter,Chapter 1, 7

    September 15 What are relationships based on? What

    structures wield power today and in

    the future?

    States/InternationalOrganizations/Regional

    Organizations

    Sovereigntyex. EuropeanUnion

    Private Sector: resource/tradeinstitutions, financial

    institutionsex. OPEC,

    APEC, Stock Exchanges

    The Post American World,Chapter 3

    The Age of the Unthinkable,Chapter 3, 4

    Global Trends, 2025 Chapter 6The Death of Kings, Nick

    Paumgarten (New Yorker)

    America: Our Next Chapter,Chapter 12, 13

    September 22 Global Interactions

    The power of media, socialThe Next 100 Years, Chapter 3World is Flat, Chapter 5, 13

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    technology, trade, people-to

    people relations, culture Articles TBA

    II. Drivers of Change

    September29 Critical Resources

    Oil, Gas, Water, FoodThe Second World, Chapter 18Alexei Monsarrat Food, Energy,

    and Water Presentation

    The Feeding of the Nine Billion:Global Food Security for the 21st

    Century, World Food Programme,

    Executive Summary

    Facing the Hard Truths aboutEnergy, National Petroleum

    Council,Executive Summary

    Global Trends, 2025 Chapter 4October 6 Challenges to Governing

    Poverty, Health, Human Rights,

    Waste, Population, and Climate

    Change

    Time for Climate ChangeRealism, Richard Haass

    Global Trends, 2025 Chapter 2

    October 13 Weapons, Terrorism, and Non-stateactors

    Age of the Unthinkable, Chapter 5,6, 8Eisenhower Speech, 1953 Speech

    on Nuclear Weapons

    Power Rules, Chapter 6, 8The Post American World,

    Chapter 2

    III. Authority and Ideology

    October 20 What will govern? Sources of Power

    Political Ideology:Democracy, 21

    stCentury

    Authoritarianism,

    Dictatorship, Capitalism?

    Resources Other

    World is Flat, Chapter 15

    Power Rules, Part IIn Crisis, Banks Dig In for Fight

    Against Rules, Gretchen

    Morgenson and Don Van Natta Jr.

    A Brief History of the Middle East,

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    The Age of the Unthinkable,Chapter 7

    October 27 1) Afghanistan/Pakistan: The Most

    Combustible Crossroads

    2) East vs. West (Part 1)

    Why is there a perceiveddivision?

    Is it real? Middle East

    The Post American World,Chapter 4

    American Power Is on theWane, Kennedy, Paul

    Power Rules, Chapter 12Global Trends, 2025 Chapter 3The GCC in 2020: Outlook for the

    Gulf and the Global Economy

    November 3 Warfare in the 21st

    Century

    Intelligence Nuclear Weapons Justice and jurisdiction Weapons of Mass Destruction Asymmetric warfare

    Global Trends, 2025 Chapter 5The Age of the Unthinkable,

    Chapter 9

    The Next 100 Years, Chapter 6, 10,11

    Articles TBANovember 10 East vs. West (Part 2)

    Will one side prevail? If so,which one and why?

    Asia

    The Post American World,Chapter 6

    Global Trends, 2025 Chapter 3The Next 100 Years, Chapter 5World is Flat, Chapter 8Rebalancing Relations with

    China, Henry Kissinger,

    Washington Post, 19 August 2009

    IV. Transforming America for the 21s

    Century

    November 17 Imperfections of Foreign Policy

    Few good choicesfewgood options

    A Brief History of the Middle East,Chapter 7

    Power Rules, Chapter 5, 7, 11Articles TBA

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    November 24 Transforming the US Government

    Will structural changes berequired in the USG to meet

    the challenges of the 21st

    Century?

    The Age of the Unthinkable,Chapter 10, 11

    The Next 100 Years, Chapter 121961 Farewell Address

    (Eisenhower)

    Articles TBADecember 1 Policy Transformation

    21st Century Doctrines: Willthe US be forced to be more or

    less accommodating to

    adjustments in a complex

    world?

    The Post American World,Chapter 5, 7

    Power Rules, Chapter 13Global Trends, 2025 Chapter 7America: Our Next Chapter,

    Chapter 14, 15

    December 8 Spill-over from other classes,

    Conclusions and Wrap-up

    America: Our Next Chapter,Chapter 16

    Articles TBA

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    INAF 515: Redefining Geopolitical RelationshipsFall 2012

    Professor: Senator Chuck Hagel

    Teaching Assistant:Michelle Melton (mnm43@

    Thursday 3:30-6:00pm

    Healy 106

    Office Hours

    Open daily 8:00 AM 6:00 PM. Meetings are by appointment.

    "Diplomacy should be judged by what it prevents, not only by what it initiates and creates. Much of it is a

    holding action, designed to avoid explosion until the unifying forces of history take humanity into their

    embrace.

    --Abba Eban

    Scope and Purpose

    Pointing to the increasingly global nature of the worlds economy, the proliferation of weapons of

    mass destruction, terrorism, environmental and energy issues, pandemic health threats, poverty,despair, and new technologies, some have argued that a global transformation is underway that is

    shifting geopolitical centers of gravity and re-casting geopolitical influences. This course examineswhether the 21st century has ushered in a global transformation that is redefining the world order and

    geopolitical relationships. Students will seek to determine whether geopolitical relationships areshifting, why, and how they may be impacting the world order. The course poses the following

    questions:

    Is the world experiencing an unprecedented diffusion of power? Are economic, technological, and demographic transformations in fact having the impact that

    proponents claim?

    Are we entering a new era of global engagement and accommodation? Are these new challenges and realities reshaping and redefining traditional political and

    security relationships?

    This course will focus on the big picture of global relationships and their impact on American foreignpolicy now and in the future. Students will learn from and consult scholarly research using a variety

    of theoretical perspectives, case studies, foreign policy leaders, and current events to contribute to

    class discussions, written and oral assignments, and overall expertise. Students will go beyond theirsurvey of scholarly information to draw realistic and useful conclusions about how organizations(private, public, non-profit, transnational, etc.) and individuals can best prepare to meet the 21

    st

    centurys challenges. We will also invite experts and leaders from the international affairs communityto select seminars to provide on-the-ground insight.

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    Beyond acquiring new knowledge and perspectives, the course also aims to build and hone stronganalytical writing and presentation skills. The course challenges students to be thoughtful, articulate,

    and conscientious global citizens.

    Course Requirements

    INAF 336 employs a variety of mechanisms to allow students to demonstrate their comprehension oftopics and contribute to the classroom community. Graded assignments will consist of:

    a short paper (1,800-2,000 words -- 15%), a policy memo (900-1000 words -- 10%), an Op-Ed (900-1000 words -- 10%), an oral presentation/briefing (7 minute presentation -- 20%), prior to questions from other

    students

    a final paper (2,800-3,000 words -- 25%).

    Class participation (20%)

    The class participation grade will be based on consistency of quality and quantity of participation and

    the students ability to bring in relevant readings, current events, and personal experiences toaugment dialogue. Students will be expected to create cogent arguments and respectfully challenge

    their peers, professor, and guests in order to leave the class with well-developed conclusions about21

    stcentury geopolitical relationships.

    Required Texts

    Students should purchase the following books, as reading assignments from these texts will not be

    available on Blackboard:

    The Future of Power, Joseph NyeThe Age of the Unthinkable, Joshua Ramo

    Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power, Robert KaplanThe Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21

    stCentury, George Friedman

    Other readings will be assigned from daily newspapers, magazines, and think tank papers and reports.

    All reading material beyond the required texts will be posted on Blackboard. In an effort to use themost relevant sources, reading assignments will also be added throughout the semester. Students will

    be notified via email when this occurs.

    Assignments

    All assignments must be turned in at the beginning of class the day they are due in both hardcopy andvia email (MS Word format) to [email protected].

    Unless otherwise indicated, all written assignments should be formatted as follows:

    Name, date, and paper title at the top of first page (no cover pages) Times New Roman size 14 font

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    INAF 515: Redefining Geopolitical RelationshipsFall 2012

    One-inch margins and 1.5 paragraph spacing

    Page numbers at bottom center of each page Total word count at end of assignment (text only citations not included)

    Assignment Due Date Grade Breakdown

    Short Paper September 20 15%

    Op-Ed October 4 10%

    Policy Memo October 18 10%

    Oral Presentations Individual Date Assigned 20%

    Proposed Final Paper Topic November 8 ----

    Final Paper December 7 25%

    Class Participation Ongoing 20%

    TOTAL 100%

    Assignment Descriptions

    Proposals for all assignments must be sent to Michelle Melton ([email protected]) for

    approval one week before the due date (with the exception of the final paper topic, which is due onemonth before the due date). All assignments must be submitted electronically and in hard copy at the

    beginning of class the day they are due. Each assignment should address a different topic and regionof the world and should reflect elements of geopolitical change. Samples of each assignment are

    posted on Blackboard.

    Short Paper: Write a paper (1,800-2,000 words) reflecting on the theme Defining and Redefining

    Relationships, that makes up the first section of the course. You may choose to reflect upon thelarger themes of defining global relationships in the 21

    stcentury or instead focus on a particular

    defining incident or case that demonstrates how geopolitical relationships are currently beingredefined. This paper is meant to be an opinion piece -- please use this latitude to be creative. You are

    welcome to draw from course readings, current events, and personal experiences as these supportyour arguments. Please use appropriate citations (any citation style is accepted, provided it is

    consistent throughout the paper).

    Op-Ed: Write an Op-Ed (900-1000 words) for a major newspaper on one of the following topics:Oil, Gas, Water, Food, Poverty, Health, Human Rights, Waste, Population, or Climate Change.

    Citations can be included on a separate page if necessary and will not count against the word limit.

    Policy Memo: Write a policy memo (900-1000 words) to the U.S. President, National SecurityCouncil (NSC), Congressional Committee, or foreign government entity on a foreign policy topic of

    your choice. Tailor to your chosen audience. Citations can be included on a separate page ifnecessary and will not count against the word limit.

    Oral Presentation: Prepare a briefing to the U.S. President, NSC, Congressional Committee, or

    foreign government entity on a topic of your choice. Your briefing should be no longer than 7

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    minutes, clearly tailored to your audience, and on a topic of your own choosing. Be prepared forquestions and bring a hard copy of your presentation to turn in in class. An oral presentation schedule

    will be circulated by the end of the second week of class. Two or three students will present on eachday of class that we do not have a guest speaker.

    Final Paper: Write a research paper (2,800-3,000 words), on a topic of your choice. The topic shouldbe broad and reflect the overall focus of the course.

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    INAF 515: Redefining Geopolitical RelationshipsFall 2012

    Weekly Topics and Reading Assignments

    I. Defining and Redefining Relationships

    Class 1:August 30

    What is the US role in theworld? And what does it mean

    to have power in geopoliticalrelationships?

    Past, present, and future Are we moving towards

    a multipolar world? How dispersed is

    geopolitical power?

    National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025:A transformed world, Executive Summary and

    Chapter 1

    No Ones World(Kupchan), Ch. 1Washington Rules (Bacevich), IntroductionAmerica: Our Next Chapter(Hagel), Chapter 1, 7Nye, The Future of Power, Preface, Chapter 1Tatlow, Didi Kirsten. BRICS Agitate for a Seat at the

    Table. The New York Times. 19 April 2012.

    Class 2:September 6

    Global Interactions The power of media,

    social technology, trade,people-to-people

    relations, culture

    Age of the Unthinkable (Ramo), Chapter 6Cyber-Mobilization, Audrey Cronin, Parameters

    (2006)

    Revolution in a Box: Why Television and notFacebook or Twitter, is going to revolutionize the

    world (Charles Kenny), Foreign Policy

    November/December 2009

    Clay Shirky, The Political Power of Social Media:Technology, the Public Sphere, and Political Change,

    Foreign Affairs

    Taiwan President: China Trade Pact Will HelpPeace,Associated Press, April 27, 2010

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    Class 3:

    September13

    Are state-to-state relationships

    still the most important?

    What structures wield powertoday and in the future?

    States International

    Organizations/RegionalOrganizations

    Private Sector:resource/trade

    companies, financialinstitutions,

    corporations, banks,foundations

    Transnationalorganizations (drugcartels, terroristorganizations, etc)

    Age of the Unthinkable (Ramo), Chapter 4Running the World After the Crash,Foreign Policy The Future of Power, Nye, chapter 5Has economic power replaced military might? (Nye)

    Naim, Moises. Mafia States: Organized CrimeTakes Office.Foreign Affairs

    Another EU to the East? Wall Street Journal, July13, 2012

    II. Drivers of Change

    Class 4:September

    20Short

    Paper due

    Transnational Problems- Poverty, health, human

    rights, population, andclimate change

    - How functional istransnational governance?

    Is it redefining traditionalstate-to-state

    relationships?

    America: Our Next Chapter(Hagel), Chapter 12, 13Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture,

    Executive Summary, Introduction, Annexes (all)(produced for EU Institute for Security Studies and

    US National Intelligence Council)

    Chapter 3: Potential Consequences of Climate Changein Trends and Implications of Climate Change forNational and International Security, Defense Science

    Board, 2011

    ScientificAmerican, Climate Change Poses ArcticChallenge for US Navy.

    Planet of Slums, (Davis), Chapter 1, 2

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    INAF 515: Redefining Geopolitical RelationshipsFall 2012

    Class 5:

    September27

    Critical Resources: Oil, Gas,

    Water, Food

    Looks like a lot but most are veryshort!

    The Quest(Yergin), Chapter 11-13, 16 Center for International Forestry Research The

    Anatomy of Large-Scale Land Acquisitions in

    Africa.

    VOA Leasing Land, Leasing Water. National Intelligence Council report Water

    Scarcity. National Geographic Growing Food Demand

    Strains Energy, Water Supplies. Bjorn Lomborg, Environmental Alarmism, then an

    now,Foreign Affairs

    Reuters, Oil supply surge could risk price collapse:Harvard analysis 26 June 2012

    North America: The New Middle East? (PPT) Verrastro, Frank The Unconventional Revolution

    Class 6:October 4

    Op-Ed due

    Weapons, Terrorism, and Non-state actors

    Age of the Unthinkable (Ramo), Chapters 5 & 8Dwight Eisenhower, 1953 Speech on Nuclear

    Weapons

    How to Run the World(Khanna), Chapter 6 Al-Qaida threat declines in global scope, The

    Guardian, April 30 2012

    III. Authority and Ideology

    Class 7:

    October 11

    What is the source of political

    authority? What is the longerterm fate of economic and

    political liberalism?

    How to Run theWorld(Khanna), Chapter 1Strategic Vision (Brzezinski), Part 2 The Waning of

    the American Dream

    Liberal Levithian (Ikenberry), Chapter 1, 8Nye, The Future of Power, Chapter 7 Magic and Mayhem (Leebaert), Introduction &

    Chapter 3

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    Class 8:

    October 18

    Policy

    Memo due

    East and West (Part 1)

    Why is there aperceived division?

    Is it real?Babones, Salvatore. The Middling Kingdom: The

    Hype and Reality of Chinas Rise.

    Monsoon (Kaplan), Preface, Chapter 1Halper, Stefan. The Beijing Consensus: How ChinasAuthoritarian Model Will Dominate the 21stCentury.New York: Basic Books, 2010.Chapter 1, 5

    Optional: Annual Report to Congress: Military andSecurity Developments Involving the PeoplesRepublic of China, 2012

    Class 9:October 25

    East and West (Part 2) Is it a competition? Will one side prevail?

    If so, which one and

    why?

    The Next 100 Years (Friedman), Chapter 5Reset(Kinzer), Introduction & Chapter 5, 7, 8Monsoon (Kaplan), Chapter 11, 12, and 15Wong, Edward. Chinas Growth Slows, and ItsPolitical Model Shows. The New York Times. 10 May

    2012.

    Walker, Martin. Chinas Bubble.Optional: Challenges in Solving Chinas Structural

    Problems (PPT)

    Class 10:November 1

    Is warfare changing in the 21stCentury?

    Intelligence Justice and jurisdiction Asymmetric warfare

    and counterinsurgency

    Cyberwar The importance of

    public opinion

    Note: This looks like a lot ofreadings, but they are mostly

    short

    Age of the Unthinkable (Ramo), Chapter 9The Next 100 Years (Friedman), Chapter 6, 10, 11Nye, Chapter 2 Snyder, Timothy. War No More: Why the World

    Has Become More Peaceful [Review: The BetterAngels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declinedby

    Steven Pinker].Foreign Affairs

    Nakashima, Ellen. China Testing Cyber-AttackCapabilities, Report Says. The Washington Post.

    With Plan X, Pentagon Seeks to Spread MilitaryMight to Cyberspace TheWashington Post

    IV. Transforming America for the 21st

    Century

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    INAF 515: Redefining Geopolitical RelationshipsFall 2012

    Class 11:

    November 8

    Final Paper

    TopicProposal

    Due

    Imperfections of Foreign Policy

    Few good choicesfewgood options

    Magic and Mayhem (Leebaert), Chapter 5The Icarus Syndrome (Beinart), Introduction &

    Chapter 8

    Zenko, Micah and Michael A. Cohen. Clear andPresent Safety: The United States is More SecureThan Washington Thinks.Foreign Affairs

    Class 12:

    November15

    Transforming the US

    Government Will structural changes

    be required in the USGto meet the challenges of

    the 21st century?

    How will future resourceconstraints affect theconduct of foreign policy

    and defense?

    The Next 100 Years (Friedman), Chapter 12Eisenhower Farewell Address 196150 Years Later, Were Still Ignoring Ikes Warning,

    Susan Eisenhower, Washington Post(January 16,

    2011)

    CRS Report: Organizing the US Gobt for NationalSecurity

    Odierno, Raymond T. The U.S. Army in a Time ofTransition: Building a Flexible Force.Foreign

    Affairs

    Gates, Robert. Remarks Delivered by the Secretary ofDefense on Defense Spending at the Eisenhower

    Library.

    Class 13:

    November29

    Policy Transformation

    Will the US need toemploy different

    strategies to achieve itsforeign policy goals? If

    so, what will suchstrategies be?

    What is the fate ofAmerican

    exceptionalism, and whatrole should it play in

    future policy?

    America: Our Next Chapter(Hagel), Chapter 14, 15The Future of Power(Nye),

    Chapter 6

    Fostering Stability or Creating a Monster?(Christensen)

    Parent, Joseph M. and Paul K. MacDonald.The Wisdom of Retrenchment: America Must Cut

    Back to Move Forward.Foreign Affairs

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    Class 14:

    December 6

    Final Paper

    due

    December7

    Spill-over from other classes,

    Conclusions and Wrap-upAmerica: Our Next Chapter(Hagel), Chapter 16Zakaria,Post-AmericanWorld, Ch. 7Magic and Mayhem (Leebaert), ConclusionEisenhower articles, Washington PostandNew YorkTimes

    The Limits of Force, Chuck Hagel, WashingtonPost 9/3/09

    Geography Strikes Back, Washington Post, RobertKaplan

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    Cyber Security Simulation Scenario

    BREAKING NEWS

    April 6. 20:00

    An unknown entity has conducted a cyber attack on Bank of America and Wells Fargo,affecting several parts of the nations financial infrastructure over the course of the pasttwo weeks. Specifically, credit-card processing facilities are hacked and numbers arereleased to the Internet, causing 20 million cards to be cancelled; automated tellermachines (ATMs) fail nearly simultaneously across the nation; major companies reportpayroll checks are not being received by workers; and several large pension and mutualfund companies have computer malfunctions so severe that they are unable to operate formore than a week. The two companies hold over $1.3 billion in deposits.

    Analysts believe these attacks will shatter faith in the stability of the financial system,

    which is already weak due to the global financial crisis. Citizens are loosing trust in allparts of the U.S. financial system and foreign speculators are making a run on the dollar.

    Although it is unclear who is behind this attack, initial reports indicate this was severalyears in the making.

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    Cyber Security Simulation

    April 2010

    Context:

    Cyber security has become an increasingly relevant international security issue, one thatwill only become more pressing in the 21

    stCentury. In the most recent Annual Threat

    Assessment, DNI Dennis Blair put cyber security at the top of the list of security issues

    the U.S. is likely to face.

    The United States confronts a dangerous combination of known and unknownvulnerabilities, strong and rapidly expanding adversary capabilities, and a lack of

    comprehensive threat awarenessSensitive information is stolen daily from bothgovernment and private sector networks, undermining confidence in our

    information systems, and in the very information these systems were intended toconvey.

    It is not only the U.S. government that fears attack. U.S. companies are keenly aware of

    the threat it poses to their businesses. Google has publically condemned the Chinese foralleged attacks on its system along with other U.S. firms.

    Cyber security is a true 21st

    Century challenge. It crosses all traditional barriers; a

    transnational threat affecting governments, the private sector, and individuals and can beeasily perpetrated by state and non-state actors.

    Scenario:

    The specific scenario that you will react to will be posted on blackboard at 8pm onTuesday, April 6 at 20:00

    In addition to the specifics of the scenario, you should keep in mind the following:

    The role of the private sector and their stake in reducing cyber attacks The implications for U.S. policy on acts of terrorism and terrorist groups U.S. domestic politics and privacy issues The global nature of cyber security threats The pre-existing policy on Internet Freedom outlined by the Secretary of State

    Meetings have and will take place on cyber security. The UN Security Council willconvene a special meeting to address the issue.

    Role Play Agenda:

    The Cyber Security Simulation will take place over a two-week period, both in and out ofclass.

    The simulation schedule will be as follows:

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    April 6 20:00 Scenario is posted to Blackboard

    April 6-8 Public statements in reaction to the

    scenario are made (you may choose not tomake a statement)

    April 8-12 Policy formulation and initial negotiations

    April 12 17:00 One page policy/strategy memo due

    April 13-20 Carry out your strategy and advance your

    agenda; prep for in person meetings (inclass)

    April 20*16:15 Principle Committee Meeting16:50 UN Security Council Meeting

    17:25 Break

    17:45 Briefing to the President

    Bilateral meetings should occur on themargins of these discussions.

    *A detailed schedule will be released

    before April 12.

    During the negotiation period you may use any tools that would be commonly used bythe person whose role you are playing, including:

    ! Statements to the press! Fact sheets! Bilateral meetings! Classified memos! Lobbying

    All pubic statements should be posted to the Discussion Board on Blackboard entitlesCyber Security Simulation.

    You may conduct negotiations via email or in person, by telephone, or any other means

    of communication. On all email correspondence, please cc dfakdf;lkasjdf;lkajsdf;kajf

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    If you negotiate offline, please send an email to your counterpart briefly detailing the

    outcome of your conversations and cc dfakdf;lkasjdf;lkajsdf;kajf. Additionally, pleasesign all email with your name and your role.

    Example Email:

    Objective:

    At the conclusion of the Cyber Security Role Play, the goal is to provide Senator Hagel a

    Cyber Security strategy and to update him on significant developments of the day. Whatare the options on the table for dealing with cyber security threats and future attacks?

    What is the recommendation for immediate actions? What is the recommendation for alonger-term policy?

    One Page Policy MemoYour one page memo should discuss your role in the cyber security scenario, why you are

    a stakeholder, what your objectives are, and your strategy for achieving your objectives.

    Dear Mr. Smith (National Security Advisor),

    Below are the notes from our conversation over lunch today.

    -The US and the UK stand together on the importance of cyber

    security.

    -We agree on X, Y, and Z

    -We have differences on point A and B

    The next steps we discussed were:

    -I will speak with the Minister of Defense

    -You will have a meeting with the Secretaries of State and Defense.

    Cheers,

    Jane Doe

    UK Ambassador to the UN)

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    Roles for Cyber Security Simulation

    U.S. Principals Committee Meeting

    1. National Security Advisor 2. White House Chief of Staff 3. Director of National Intelligence 4. Secretary of State 5. U.S. Ambassador to the UN 6. Secretary of Defense 7. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff 8. Secretary of Homeland Security

    UN Special Security Council Meeting

    9. UK Ambassador to the UN 10.China Ambassador to the UN 11.Russia Ambassador to the UN 12.Japan Ambassador the UN (Also President of the UNSC) 13.France Ambassador to the UN 14.Brazil Ambassador to the UN 15.Turkey Ambassador to the UN

    *Note: The U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. will also attend this meeting

    Non-UN Security Council Member

    16.CEO Bank of America 17.CEO Wells Fargo 18.Chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee --!