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Principal Inves.gator: Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Lead Inves.gator: Javier Oyakawa, M.A., M.Sc.
Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Research Director
Ins.tute for Economic Development The University of Texas at San Antonio
University of Texas at San Antonio Ins.tute for Economic Development
§ Eagle Ford Shale Community Development Program (21 Coun.es in South Texas)
§ Small Business Development Centers -‐ SBDC (79 Coun.es in South, West and Central Texas)
§ Rural Business Program (79 Coun.es in South Texas) § Procurement Technical Assistance Center (Texas) § JP Morgan Chase Veteran's Program (Texas) § Southwest Trade Adjustment Assistance Center (TX, OK,
LA) § SBDC Na.onal Informa.on Clearinghouse (Na.onal) § Minority Business Center (Na.onal) § Community and Business Research (Na.onal, Int’l) § Interna.onal Trade Center (Mexico, Central/South
America, Caribbean, North Africa)
UTSA Ins.tute for Economic Development
Research at the Ins,tute focuses on research projects that help business and policymakers plan for a dynamic future:
§ Economic Impact Studies § Community Development Studies (I-‐35, SH 130)
§ EB-‐5 Immigrant Investor Regional Center Impact Studies
§ Analysis on Various Topics: § Eagle Ford Shale § San Antonio Missions § South Texas Medical Center § University of Texas System § Targeted Industry Recruitment / Workforce Analysis § Repurposing of Military Bases for Commercial Use
UTSA Ins.tute for Economic Development
As the Research Arm of UTSA’s Ins.tute for Economic Development we are dedicated to serving:
§ Economic development corpora.ons (e.g., SA EDF)
§ City, state and federal governments § Workforce development boards § Businesses § Associa.ons § Other community stakeholders
In theory, there is no difference between theory and prac.ce; in prac.ce, there is.
-‐ Yogi Berra
UTSA – Emerging Tier 1 University
California: 9 Tier 1 Universi.es (Popula.on 38 Million) 1. Stanford University (1900) 2. University of California, Berkeley (1900) 3. California Ins.tute of Technology (1934) 4. University of Southern California (1969) 5. University of California, Los Angeles (1974) 6. University of California, San Diego (1982) 7. University of California, Santa Barbara (1995) 8. University of California, Davis (1996) 9. University of California, Irvine (1996)
New York: 6 Tier 1 Universi.es (Popula.on 19 Million)
1. Columbia University (1900) 2. Cornell University (1900) 3. University of Rochester (1941) 4. New York University (1950) 5. University at Buffalo, The State University of New York (1989) 6. Stony Brook University-‐The State University of New York (2001)
Texas: Only 3 Tier 1 Universi.es (Popula.on 27 Million) 1. University of Texas at Aus.n (1929) 2. Rice University (1985) 3. Texas A&M University (2001)
(62 Total AAU Members in U.S.)
Coun.es Included in Study Area
Producing Coun.es: – Atascosa – Bee – DeWij – Dimmit – Frio – Gonzales – Karnes – La Salle
– Lavaca – Live Oak – Maverick – McMullen – Webb – Wilson – Zavala
Adjacent Coun.es: – Bexar – Jim Wells – Nueces – San Patricio – Uvalde – Victoria
Counties not included in the analysis are Leon, Milam, Brazos, Burleson, Lee, Fayette, Lavaca, Edwards, Houston, and Wood
Reasons for Increases in Economic Impact in 2013 and 2023
• Between $23B -‐ $30B will be spent on capital expenditures in 2014
– EFS Forma.on con.nues to exceed expecta.ons • E&P companies regularly adjust ini.al produc.on and es.mated reserves upward
– New manufacturing, port, shipping, and pipeline projects con.nue to be announced as a result of low-‐cost natural gas and growing supplies of light crude
26 94
1010
2826
4145
4416
1649
2983
3311
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Permits
Completed Wells
Drilling Permits and Comple.ons
How Much Oil and Condensate Has Eagle Ford Produced To-‐Date?
1,081,846,991 Barrels (over 1 billion)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Crude Oil U.S. Imports from OPEC Countries (000 Barrels)
Implica.ons of Mexican Energy Reform
• New explora.on, drilling and opera.onal economic impact
• Related midstream development (pipeline and storage) impact
• Results of rulemaking process
• Infrastructure issues
• Security issues
• Workforce needs
• Doing business with PEMEX
Economic Impact Study About the Opening of the Energy Sector in Mexico in the Northern
States of Mexico, Including Legal Analysis of the Reform and a Guide on How to do
Business in the Energy Sector in Mexico
How Is Energy Reform Likely to Proceed in Mexico?
• PEMEX will focus on conven.onal and deep water opportuni.es
• Ini.al private company E&P efforts will be focused on shale oil opportuni.es
• Wider availability of geological informa.on in Northern Mexico will be important to private E&P efforts
• Natural gas pipeline infrastructure in Mexico will be built out before gas produc.on begins
• Mexico-‐U.S. (Texas) partnership opportuni.es will abound
• Opportuni.es for support services (temporary housing, food service, trucking, welding, etc.) will be significant
ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY
LEGAL ANALYSIS
BUSINESS ROADMAP ON HOW TO DO BUSINESS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR
ONLINE PLATFORM CONNECT B2B WITHIN ENERGY SECTOR IN MEXICO AND TEXAS
Total Economic Output Impact in 2013 21-‐County Study Region
• Over $87 billion in economic output (up from $61B in 2012 and $25B in 2011)
• Over 154,000 full-‐.me jobs supported (up from 116,000 in 2012 and 47,097 in 2011)
• Over $5.6 billion in salaries and benefits paid to workers (up from $4.7B in 2012 and $3.1B in 2011)
• Over $42 billion in gross regional product (up from $28B in 2012 and $12.63B in 2011)
• Over $2.2 billion in state revenues (up from $1.2B in 2012 and $358 million in 2011)
• Over $2.2 billion in local government revenues (up from $1B in 2012 and $257 million in 2011)
Moderate Scenario Es.mated Combined Impacts for 2023 (21-‐County Area)
• More than $137 billion in total economic output (at $65/bbl: $48-‐68 billion)
• 196,660 full-‐.me jobs supported (at $65/bbl: 72,000-‐101,000 full-‐.me jobs supported)
• $12 billion in salaries and benefits paid
• $72 billion in gross regional product
• $4 billion in state revenues
• $4 billion in local government revenues
New and Expanded Rail Projects in the Eagle Ford
Rail can move ONE ton
500 miles on ONE gallon of fuel
Gardendale Railroad 2009-‐ La Salle County Status : Abandoned
Gardendale Railroad-‐2013 La Salle County
Gardendale Rail Spur near Cotulla
Port of Corpus Chris. TODAY
UNION PAC
IFIC RR
UNION PACIFIC RR
UNION PACIFIC RR
PCCALa QuintaProperty
INT
RA
CO
AS
TAL
WA
TE
RW
AY
LYD
IA A
NN
CH
AN
NE
L
ARANSAS CHANNEL
INTR
ACOAS
TAL W
ATER
WAY
Gulfof
Mexico
Corpus Christi Bay
Nueces Bay
AransasBay
RedfishBay
Nueces River
CORPUSCHRISTI
INTERNATIONALAIRPORT
HARBOR BRIDGE
Copyright 2013 © Don Rodman 7.10
BulkTerminal
Fulton Corridor
PORT ARANSAS FERRY
Proposed La QuintaRail Line
Conceptual Route
Proposed Odem Rail
Reroute
Proposed Phase 1 Gregory RailRelief Route
GradeSeparation
Project
Proposed Suntide Rail Yard
ProposedSH 200
Relief Route
Nueces RiverRail Yard Project
NUECES BAYCAUSEWAY
RinconIndustrial
DevelopmentJewel Fulton
Canal -17’
286
358
44
TEXAS
361
TEXAS
35
77
181
TEXAS
361
181
44
77
CORPUSCHRISTI
PORTARANSAS
INGLESIDE
PORTLAND
ROBSTOWN
Corpus Christi Ship Channel
Depth: -45’; Authorized to -52’
La QuintaShip Channel
Depth: -45’
Ingleside On-the-Bay
ARANSASPASS
GREGORY
ODEM
KCS / BNSF RR
2012 Rail Master Plan Elements
SCALE IN MILES
0 21 3 4
OXYCHEM
DUPONT
GULF MARINEFABRICATORS
GULFMARINE
KIEWITOFFSHORE
FLINT HILLSWEST
CITGOWEST
VALEROREFINING
FLINT HILLSEAST
CITGOEAST
LYONDELLBASELLEQUISTAR
DaleMillerBridge
DeDIETRICH
SHERWINALUMINA
Martin-MarriettaGulf Compress
HELIX
TPCO
CHENIERE
ADM
MartinMidstream
InterstateGrain
NuStar
VALERO
Papalote CreekWind Farm
PCCADMPA
FLINT HILLS
OXY INGLESIDEENERGY CENTER
STATION 210+00EAST END OF
FEDERAL CHANNEL
LA QUINTAJUNCTION
San Patricio Municipal Water District
M&G
VOESTALPINE
MartinMidstream
NorthBeach
PCCADMPA
HOOKS BASEBALL FIELDCORPUS CHRISTI MUSEUMARENA & CONVENTION CENTER
Corpus ChristiInner Harbor
HarborIsland
PelicanIsland
2725
2986
1069
631
1074
893Proposed 11,000 Ft. Rail
Interchange Yard
OXYCHEM
DUPONT
KIEWIT
SHERWIN ALUMINA
NUSTAR
OXY INGLESIDE
TOPAZ POWER GROUP
TRAFIGURA
VALERO
ELEMENTIS
CITGO EAST
ADM GRAIN ELEVATOR
AIR LIQUIDE
MARKWEST JAVELINA CELANESE
BISHOP, TX
INTERSTATE GRAIN
AEP TEXAS
BTB REFINING
LYONDELLBASELL
CITGO WEST
FLINT HILLS
MAGELLAN
GULF MARINE FABRICATORS
FLINT HILLS INGLESIDE
MARTIN MIDSTREAM
GULF COMPRESS
Pipelines in Texas
Principal Investigator: Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. [email protected]
Lead Investigator: Javier Oyakawa, M.A., M.Sc.
Project Lead, GIS Specialist: Hisham Eid
Researchers: Sylvana Bortol, Maricela Diaz-Wells, Jennifer Do, Jason Hernandez, Karina Juarez, Yongsun Lee, Vincent “Gus” Loeffelholz, Andrea Rojas, Carelli Torres, Hector Torres
• U.S. now has ready access to long-term domestic supplies of low-cost natural gas
• Has the potential to significantly transform passenger and commercial vehicle usage
• Conversion of refueling stations and vehicles to use natural gas should be addressed simultaneously
• Approximately 115,000 conventional gasoline stations in the U.S.
• Approximately 16,000 conventional gasoline stations in Texas
• Approximately 1550 CNG fueling stations in the U.S.
• Approximately 120 CNG fueling stations in Texas
$30
$128
$474
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
2013 2014 2015
132
927
3333
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2013 2014 2015
762
1187
2636
6985
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Oil Price Predic.on Hall of Fame Why Oil Prices Won’t Fall Below $100 a Barrel
Chad Shoop, The Sovereign Investor Daily -‐ September 1, 2014
Oil won’t drop below $100 in 2014, Iran says Mohsen Qamsari, director for interna,onal affairs at the Na,onal Iranian Oil Company – May
24, 2014
Oil prices won’t fall below $100 Petroleum Policy Intelligence – July 23, 2012
OPEC Won't Let Crude Oil Fall Below $100
Rafael Correa, President of Ecuador – September 27, 2008
Oil prices won't drop below $100 Yusuf bin Ahmed Kanoo group managing director Khalid Mohammed Kanoo – May 27, 2008
Pickens says oil won't go below $100 August 14, 2008
Idle drilling rigs in a storage yard in Odessa, Texas, could signal a drop in U.S. oil
production that would be bullish for prices.
Photo: Dan Molinski
Updated Natural Gas Annual Produc.on Forecast 2014
1,315,226
1,634,138
1,701,404
1,699,583
1,728,429
1,787,764
1,863,016
1,915,572
1,868,790
1,882,320
1,926,373
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Updated Eagle Ford Shale Oil/Condensate Annual Produc.on
Forecast (bbls) Scenarios
328,238,456
419,142,267
438,482,784 439,648,521
451,320,866 471,601,655
495,956,733 521,734,465
547,483,184 559,080,870
579,227,374
-‐
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Medium-‐Long Term Strategies for Success
• Look for Opportuni.es to Diversify the Local Economy (Des.na.on Loca.ons)
• Rediscover Your Community’s History and Architecture as a Tool for Economic Development (Why was the City Founded in the First Place?)
• Seize the Opportunity to Implement Form-‐Based Zoning That Emphasizes Mixed-‐Use, Flexibility, Livability and Sustainability
• Forge Linkages, Alliances and Engage Other EFS Communi.es, Higher Educa.on Ins.tu.ons
• Iden.fy Best Prac.ces from Other Shale Plays
• Work with Elected Representa.ves at the Municipal, County, State and Na.onal Levels on Infrastructure Planning
Looking Beyond Eagle Ford: Basics of Sustainable Infrastructure (Key to Ajrac.ng New Residents, Visitors and Industry)
§ Bejer Roadways
§ Improved Medical Facili.es
§ Broadband Networks
§ More Housing Op.ons
§ Adequate Water and Power Supply, Improved Waste Management
§ Bejer Quality K-‐12 and Voca.onal Educa.on
§ Improved Aesthe.cs, Elimina.on of Blight, Land Recycling (Bulldozing Derelict Houses, Cleaning Up Junkyards; Renova.on and/or Repurposing of Historical Buildings)
§ Branding: Iden.ty, Gateways
§ Livability: Public Ameni.es that Improve the Desirability of the Community and Quality of Life (Lakes, Parks, Hike/Bike Trails, Walk-‐able Neighborhoods)
Why would someone want to live in or visit your community?
Thank you!
Economic Impact of the
Eagle Ford Shale
September 2014
Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Research Director
UTSA Ins.tute for Economic Development [email protected]
Principal Inves.gator: Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Lead Inves.gator: Javier Oyakawa, M.A., M.Sc. Researchers: Gina Con., Maricela Diaz-‐Wells, Jason Hernandez, Yongsun Lee, Vincent Loeffelholz, Neeraj Ravi, John Rodriguez, Feihua Teng, Carelli Torres, Binbin Wang, John Zhang
GIS Specialist: Hisham Eid
