PRICES PROD.INDEX TRADE BALANCE 18 85 Imports …ec.europa.eu/.../agriculture/files/dashboards/apple-dashboard_en.pdf · Sources: Eurostat, MSs notifications, DG Agri, Comext, Comtrade,

Sources: Eurostat, MSs notifications, DG Agri, Comext, Comtrade, GTA, ITC, AMI, Expert groups, Freshfel, Wapa….

MS PRICES EU AVG PRICES

D G A G R I D A S H B O A R D : A P P L E S Last update: 22.05.2018 PRICES PROD. TRADE BALANCE INDEX EXPORT DIV.

30

38

4040

3837

41 41

44

48

48

33

31

34

32

31

34

36

38

47

47 47

3838

28

2526

27

25

27

29

32

40 39

38

30

34

26

23 23

25

24

25

26

29

35 34

33

2830

24

21

2324

26

3030

28

27

22

20

1415

20 20 2019

18 1817

19 18

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul YEAR

Apple prices in Poland (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)

Current 2017/18 (Previous) 2016/17Monthly 5 year MAX 66% upper line5 year avg 66% lower lineMonthly 5 year MIN

€/100 kg€/100 kg

71

74

8687 87 88

9190

93

98

8889 89

8685

8386

88 88

9294

98

89

76 7677 77 76

75 7675 75

7778

79

76

7170

71 71 71 71 7170 71

7273 74

71

67

6465 66 66 66 66

6566

6869 68

67

60

52 52 52 5354

56 55

60 5960

62

56

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


Apple prices in Italy (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)

Current 2017/18 (Previous) 2016/17

Monthly 5 year MAX 66% upper line

5 year avg 66% lower line

Monthly 5 year MIN

€/100 kg

Those "producer" prices are ex packaging station, sorted and packaged

107

111

9694

90

93

95

97

101

109

121

99

96

9999

101 101

103

106

112

107

114

105

101

8887

86 8586

8586

89

93

83

8687

94

84 84

82 8182

8081

83

87

7778

83

87

7980

7877

77

7677

78

81

70 69

7878

68

72 73

7172

7172 72

73

66 66

71

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120


Apple prices in France (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)




Monthly 5 year MIN

€/100 kg

Those "producer" prices are ex packaging station, sorted and

packaged

54

73

84

90 9189 89

95 94

99

56

6162

5758 57 57

56

60 6061

6059

46

51 50

47 47 4748 48

49 4950 50

48

42

4644

41 42 4244 43

44 4446 46

44

38

4138

36 37 3839 38

40 4042 42

39

3230

23 2225

2628

29 30

33

38

3129

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Apple prices in Germany (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)




Monthly 5 year MIN

€/100 kg


66

74

7678

77 77

79

81

83

88

75

6867

65 65 65

67 67

72

78 7779

70

64

60 6059 59 58 59 59

61

6463 63

60

60

5655

54 55 55 55 5557

60

58 5856

56

5251

5051 51 51 51

53

55

53 52 53

49

42

40 4142

4344

4748

50

4644 45

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90


Apple prices in the EU (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg) Simple avg of 4 MSs (the 4 major producers)




€/100 kg


300 000

500 000

700 000

900 000

1 100 000

1 300 000

1 500 000

1 700 000

1 900 000

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18[f]

ExtraEU trade for apples - Aug to Jul - Tonnes

Exports

Imports

Severe weather event: spring frosts in 2017 destroyed 23 % of the crop (calculated on 3

year average crop)

2 246

2 080

1 676

1 5281 651

1 5791 701

1 1691 576

1 444

1 674

1 5151 396

2 1922 131

2 196 2 1642 237

2 1792 293

1 939

2 122

2 456

2 280 2 272

1 757

2 075

2 305

1 100

3 200

2 600

1 850

2 500

2 900

3 170

3 750

3 9794 035

2 870

891948

1 070 1 047 1 071

835953 972

804

1 116

9731 033

555

4 294 4 328

3 809 3 456

3 450

3 296 3 300

3 113

3 2593 744

3 359

2 923

2 766

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18[f]

Apple production, cider apples included (000 tonnes)The 4 major EU producers + other producers (24 MSs)

France Italy Poland

Germany EU-other

back to DashboardPrevious

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2

INDEX

0. Summary overview, market update

1. Prices

* EU prices

* MS prices for major producers

2. Production (by variety + extreme weather events + stocks)

3. Trade

* Evolution of the trade balance

* Import monitoring

* Export development

4. Key balance indicators including CONSUMPTION

5. Export diversification


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0. SUMMARY OVERVIEW, MARKET UPDATE

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

1. The EU average price moved from 81 (*) EuroCents/kg in March to 83 (*) in April this year which implies evolving in line with the seasonal factors and

remaining at 46% above the reference's period average.

2. At MS level prices are increasing slightly in nominal terms in all cases; when taking account for the seasonal factors, however, minor reductions were

implicitly recorded in DE and PL.

3. Significant changes were registered during the last month in the international environment. China, a country representing over a half of the world's

production and a major exporter, suffered a severe frost that could imply an important reduction of the world's supply and, therefore, favourable

conditions for EU exports in Asia.

4. A substancial rise of the EU supply is expected for the next marketing year in absence of adverse weather conditions.

5. In conclusion, the impact on prices of the forecasted expansion of the EU supply for the incoming marketing year could be counter-balanced in case of

confirmation of a large reduction of China's supply.

(*) Minor last minute adjustments on previously disseminated figures are possible due to additional notifications coming from Member States.

Background


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4

BACKGROUND

1. Extreme weather events during April and May 2017, late spring frosts, are at the origin of a relatively small supply level

implying high prices during this marketing year. This is the central weather event defining the ongoing marketing year.

2. The EU apple market has essentially two major "leading indicators":

2.1. The size of the crop for the ongoing marketing year; at EU level a 19% reduction of the current crop (when

compared to a 5 year reference period) results on about 40% price increase (with huge differences depending on the relative size

of the crop of each MS and the historical reference level of prices); => in the current year the price band is situated well above the

historical range for prices; => [PLACEMENT OF THE BAND WHEN COMPARED TO REFERENCE PERIOD AVERAGE PRICES]

2.2 The depletion or unstocking rate month after month during the marketing year; => that rate and price evolve

towards opposite directions; = [MONTHLY ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN THE BAND ABOVE]

3. The depletion or unstocking rate depends on 3 sub-factors:

3.1 Monthly consumption;

3.2 Monthly trade balance (the EU apple market is sensitive to extra-EU export developments) ;

3.2 Small adjustments in terms of product expecting to go to fresh consumption

but that due to quality issues has to go finally for processing.

4. In conclusion, the current marketing year is caracterized by a significantly smaller than average supply and very high prices.


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1. PRICES

1.1. EU Prices

1.2. MS prices for major producers

* Poland (1st EU28 volume producer)

* Italy (2nd)

* France (3rd)

* Germany (4th)


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6

66

74

7678

77 77

79

81

83

88

75

6867

65 65 65

67 67

72

78 7779

70

64

60 6059 59 58 59 59

61

6463 63

60

60

5655

54 55 55 55 5557

60

58 5856

56

5251

5051 51 51 51

53

55

53 52 53

49

42

40 4142

4344

4748

50

4644 45

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90


Apple prices in the EU (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg) Simple avg of 4 MSs (the 4 major producers)




€/100 kg


Market summary


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7

+3 %

+8%

+1 %

+2 %

83

44

93

101

146

152

132

121

EU

PL-Poland

IT-Italy

FR-France

April 2018,

Price, €/100 kg

2017/18, changes

from Mar to Apr % 5 year avg price,

changes from Mar to Apr %

April 2018, comparison to

5 year avg, base = 100 %

Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – April 2018

+3 %

+7 %

+3 %

+4 %

+3 % 94 212 DE-Germany 0 %

CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO 5 YEAR AVERAGE CURRENT PRICES COMPARED TO ONE MONTH AGO

Provisional

May prices

in graphs (up

to week 20)

Market summary

Previous month


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8

0 %

+5%

-1 %

+1 %

81

41

90

97

146

155

129

120

EU

PL-Poland

IT-Italy

FR-France

March 2018,

Price, €/100 kg

2017/18, changes

from Feb to Mar % 5 year avg price,

changes from Feb to Mar %

March 2018, comparison to


Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – March 2018

+2 %

0 %

-1 %

+2 %

-1 % 95 220 DE-Germany +7 %


Previous month


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9

+1 %

+6%

0 %

-2 %

79

41

92

95

144

162

129

119

EU

PL-Poland

IT-Italy

FR-France

February 2018,

Price, €/100 kg

2017/18, changes

from Jan to Feb % 5 year avg price,

changes from Jan to Feb %

Jan. 2018, comparison to


Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – February 2018

+3 %

+10 %

+4 %

+2 %

+3 % 89 204 DE-Germany -1 %


Previous month


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10

0 %

-5%

-1 %

+1 %

77

37

88

93

140

156

124

114

EU

PL-Poland

IT-Italy

FR-France

January 2018,

Price, €/100 kg

2017/18, changes

from Dec to Jan % 5 year avg price,

changes from Dec to Jan %

Jan. 2018, comparison to


Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – January 2018

0 %

-3 %

1 %

+3 %

+1 % 89 210 DE-Germany -2 %


Previous month


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11

+1 %

+8%

0 %

-1 %

77

38

87

90

140

152

123

111

EU

PL-Poland

IT-Italy

FR-France

December 2017,

Price, €/100 kg

2017/18, changes

from Nov to Dec % 5 year avg price,

changes from Nov to Dec %

Dec 2017, comparison to


Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – December 2017

-2 %

-6 %

0 %

-4 %

+2 % 91 216 DE-Germany +1 %


Previous month


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12

-2 %

+1%

0 %

-2 %

78

41

87

94

143

173

122

115

EU

PL-Poland

IT-Italy

FR-France

November 2017,

Price, €/100 kg

2017/18, changes

from Oct to Nov % 5 year avg price,

changes from Oct to Nov %

Nov 2017, comparison to


Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – November 2017

+2 %

+2 %

+1 %

-1 %

-6 % 90 217 DE-Germany +7 %


Previous month


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13

-1 %

-11 %

+2 %

0 %

76

40

86

96

138

171

121

114

EU

PL-Poland

IT-Italy

FR-France

October 2017,

Price, €/100 kg

2017/18, changes

from Sep to Oct % 5 year avg price,

changes from Sep to Oct %

Oct. 2017, comparison to


Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – October 2017

+3 %

+4 %

+16 %

-14 %

-4 % 84 191 DE-Germany +5 %


Previous month


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14

-7 %

-24 %

-2 %

-11 %

74

38

74

111

132

147

106

133

EU

PL-Poland

IT-Italy

FR-France

September 2017,

Price, €/100 kg

2017/18, changes

from Aug to Sep, % 5 year avg price,

changes from Aug to Sep %

Sept. 2017, comparison to


Apple prices €/100kg (= Euro cents/kg) and % changes – September 2017

+13 %

+25 %

+5 %

+4 %

+8 % 73 160 DE-Germany +35 %



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15

30

38

4040

3837

41 41

44

48

48

33

31

34

32

31

34

36

38

47

47 47

3838

28

2526

27

25

27

29

32

40 39

38

30

34

26

23 23

25

24

25

26

29

35 34

33

2830

24

21

2324

26

3030

28

27

22

20

1415

20 20 2019

18 1817

19 18

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


Apple prices in Poland (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)

Current 2017/18 (Previous) 2016/17Monthly 5 year MAX 66% upper line5 year avg 66% lower lineMonthly 5 year MIN

€/100 kg€/100 kg


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16

71

74

8687 87 88

9190

93

98

8889 89

8685

8386

88 88

9294

98

89

76 7677 77 76

75 7675 75

7778

79

76

7170

71 71 71 71 7170 71

7273 74

71

67

6465 66 66 66 66

6566

6869 68

67

60

52 52 52 5354

56 55

60 5960

62

56

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


Apple prices in Italy (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)




Monthly 5 year MIN

€/100 kg


\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64


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107

111

9694

90

93

95

97

101

109

121

99

96

9999

101 101

103

106

112

107

114

105

101

8887

86 8586

8586

89

93

83

8687

94

84 84

82 8182

8081

83

87

7778

83

87

7980

7877

77

7677

78

81

70 69

7878

68

72 73

7172

7172 72

73

66 66

71

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120


Apple prices in France (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)




Monthly 5 year MIN

€/100 kg

Those "producer" prices are ex packaging station, sorted and

packaged

//net1.cec.eu.int/AGRI/C/4/C5 DATA/5. CEREALES/DASHBOARD/Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx

























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18

54

73

84

90 9189 89

95 94

99

56

6162

5758 57 57

56

60 6061

6059

46

51 50

47 47 4748 48

49 4950 50

48

42

4644

41 42 4244 43

44 4446 46

44

38

4138

36 37 3839 38

40 4042 42

39

3230

23 2225

2628

29 30

33

38

3129

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Apple prices in Germany (€/100kg=Euro cents/kg)




Monthly 5 year MIN

€/100 kg


























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19

2. PRODUCTION

2.1. EU production for MSs that are major producers

2.2. EU production by variety (%)

2.3. Extreme weather events

2.4. Apple stocks



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20 Further detail

2 246

2 080

1 676

1 5281 651

1 5791 701

1 1691 576

1 444

1 674

1 5151 396

2 1922 131

2 196 2 1642 237

2 1792 293

1 939

2 122

2 456

2 280 2 272

1 757

2 075

2 305

1 100

3 200

2 600

1 850

2 500

2 900

3 170

3 750

3 9794 035

2 870

891948

1 070 1 047 1 071

835953 972

804

1 116

9731 033

555

4 294 4 328

3 809 3 456

3 450

3 296 3 300

3 113

3 2593 744

3 359

2 923

2 766

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18[f]

Apple production, cider apples included (000 tonnes)The 4 major EU producers + other producers (24 MSs)

France Italy Poland

Germany EU-other

























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21

APPLE CROP 2017/18 - forecasts

000 Tonnes 2016/17 2017/18 f Change on 3 year avg

EU 11 779 9 343 -23%

Poland 4 035 2 870 -27%

Italy 2 272 1 757 -25%

France 1 515 1 396 -10%

Germany 1 033 555 -47%

EU-other 2 923 2 766 -17%



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22

























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23

AGRO-WEATHER INDEX

1. Background with main elements

2. Summary multi-event map

* main events

3. Precipitation analysis

* 90 day

* 30 day

* maps of current or recent droughts in the EU

4. Temperature analysis

* 30 day average, °C, regional deviations

* Relative number of cold days

5. Other agro-weather events

General index

WEATHER FACTORS IN FRUIT AND VEGETABLE

PRODUCTIONS

Agro-weather index


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24

Source: JRC

Further detail


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25 Preceding period

Source: JRC


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26 Further detail

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN EUROPE

TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES +/-°C ON AVG

24 Apr 2018 to 23 May 2018 (+/- 30 days)

Source: Climate Prediction Center


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27 Preceding period

Source: JRC

LTA = Long term average

YOI, year of interest = current year


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28 Further detail

Source: JRC


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29

Main area of severe wind

Source: Severe weather database

EXTREME

WEATHER EVENTS

IN EUROPE

1 April 2018 to 25

May 2018


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30 Further detail

SPRING 2017 (mid-April to

mid-May): huge damages to

the orchard crops mainly due

to frost and low temperatures

Agro-weather index



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31

Data sources: WAPA&AMI

Further detail


























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32

























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33

3. TRADE

3.1. Evolution of the trade balance

3.2. Import monitoring

2.3. Export development (export diversification is under section 5)


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34

300 000

500 000

700 000

900 000

1 100 000

1 300 000

1 500 000

1 700 000

1 900 000

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18[f]

ExtraEU trade for apples - Aug to Jul - Tonnes

Exports

Imports

Severe weather event: spring frosts in 2017 destroyed 23 % of the crop (calculated on 3

year average crop)



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35

























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36


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37

4. KEY BALANCE INDICATORS

including CONSUMPTION

- Production

- Imports

- Total supply (production +imports)

* Apparent fresh consumption

* Apples for processing

* Exports

- Market access (Imports/Fresh consumption)

- Fresh production exported (%)

- Apparent fresh consumption (kg/person)



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38 Further detail


























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39

























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40

5. EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION

- Map of top world importers of apples

- Bar chart on top world importers and annual growth rates

- Key trade indicators on top world importers of apples

- Main apple traders in the world and degree of diversification

- World consumption of apples, main players



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41 Further detail

TOP WORLD IMPORTERS FROM ALL ORIGINS – 080810 - 2017


























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42 Further detail

TOP WORLD APPLE IMPORTERS FROM ALL ORIGINS 2017 and % Annual growth in value 2013-17


























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43

TOP WORLD APPLE IMPORTERS FROM ALL ORIGINS - 080810

Further detail


























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44 Further detail

concentrated, few trade partners-> <- diversified, many trade partners

Remark: Interesting method of analysis, the scale is not accurate, just indicative

TOP 25 APPLE IMPORTERS OF THE WORLD FROM ALL ORIGINS - 2017 – Value Terms


























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45

China58%

European Union11%

United States4%

Turkey4%

India4%

Russia2%

Iran2%

Other15%

World consumption of apples 2015/16 (volume) Main players


























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End

Thank you
























Documents

PRICES PROD.INDEX TRADE BALANCE 18 85 Imports …ec.europa.eu/.../agriculture/files/dashboards/apple-dashboard_en.pdf · Sources: Eurostat, MSs notifications, DG Agri, Comext, Comtrade,