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The Global Commercial Space Economy Presented by Carissa Christensen, CEO, Bryce Space and Technology
SpaceCom 2017 Houston, December 5, 2017
Global satellite industry grew 2% in 2016, below worldwide economic growth (3.1%) and slightly above the U.S. growth (1.6%)
6% 18%* 10% 7% 3% Growth Rate 5%
Global Satellite Industry Revenues ($ Billions) $
Bill
ions
2X
Ten-Year Global Industry
Growth
15% 19% 11% 2%
$122 $144 $161 $168 $177 $210 $231 $247 $255 $261
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Risk-tolerant Investment in New Ventures
• Space attracting increased investment from Silicon Valley, world-wide
• Start-Up Space analyzes 21st century space investment trends
• Focus: investors, investment in new companies with private financing
Space Unicorns
• SpaceX has joined an elite group of companies, called “unicorns,” which are private companies with a valuation of $1 billion or more
– SpaceX now valued at $27B – Fourth most valuable privately
held company in America – Planet became the second with
a valuation of $1.1B this year
Relative Sizes of Earth Observation Satellites
Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) NASA
Dove Planet
WoldView-3 DigitalGlobe
Number of Launches and Very Small Satellites
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Num
ber o
f Lau
nche
s
Num
ber o
f Sat
ellit
es L
aunc
hed
Year
FemtoPicoNanoMicroMiniNumber of Launches
*Launched to date as of 8/17
Smallsat Remote Sensing Ventures Sell Analytics
• Focused on new markets for analytics • Enabled by computing power and
machine learning • Potential applications to many industries • Customer base still in early stages • Growing government interest
Characteristics of the Start-Up Space Supply Chain
• Vertical integration • Manufacturer-operators • Maker and small team innovation • Leveraging COTS • Warehousing • Reusability • Additive manufacturing
Market Dynamics, Commercial Human Spaceflight
• Proposed systems largely viewed as technically credible • Mix of business experience, from global entrepreneurial superstars to technologists • Meaningful investment with potential for more • Business case not proven; uncertain demand and revenue potential
• Analysis, ticket sales, suggest commercial demand for suborbital services. Supply side somewhat uncertain
• Potential commercial demand for orbital services and LEO destinations, limited analysis • Unknown demand for Moon/Mars destinations, very little data • Many projections assume a robust LEO economy – chicken/egg
• Major challenges: magnitude of investment is massive, technology is complex, timelines are long
Prepared by Bryce Space and Technology Carissa Christensen, CEO [email protected] @BryceSpaceTech +1 703-647-8070