New Mobility

Public conferenceWednesday 28th November, Brussels

THE NEW MOBILITY ERA

The increasing demand for mobility and the need for social change

3

During the next decades the mobility sector will go through somedramatic changes because of several factors such as: These trendsinvolve the shift towards an even more individual and personalizedmobility - due to the growing number of single-person householdsand people’s longer life expectancy - and the increase in tourismflows.

• the growing number of people moving to (and within) urban areas

• the shift towards an even more individual and personalizedmobility

• the increase in tourism flows

Urbanization and individualism

4Source: Eurostat

In the last 50 years, the percentage of the population moving to urban areas has significantlyincreased in every part of the world.

Data on EuropeanUnion countriesshows the decreasein the number ofindividuals per familyin almost everyMember State

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0Percentage of population living in urban areas 1967-2017 (% of total)

1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017

00,5

11,5

22,5

33,5

EU-2

8

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Average number of persons in European private households (2007 –2017)

2007 2017

Greenhouse emissions

5Source: European Environment Agency

The transport sector is responsible for 24% of the total greenhouse gas emissions, a significantincrease from 1990 (15%), raising issues related to the usage optimization of transport means

Fuel combustion and fugitive

emissions from fuels (without

trasport)62%

Transport (including

international aviation)

15%

Agriculture9%

Industrial processes and product use

9%

Waste Management

4%1990

Fuel combustion and fugitive

emissions from fuels (without

trasport)54%Transport

(including international

aviation)24%

Agriculture10%

Industrial processes and product use

8%

Waste Management

3%

2016

THE EUROPEAN UNION TOWARDS SAFE, CLEAN AND CONNECTED MOBILITY

Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems

7

European Strategy on Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C-ITS)(30 November 2016)

common security and certificate policy for C-ITS

Priorities for deployment of C-ITS

Services

data protection

interoperability

privacy

International standardization

security

coordination of research

Climate change: the Paris Agreement (December 2015)

8

The Paris Agreement is the first multilateral agreement on climate changecovering almost all of the world's emissions and a confirmation of the EU's pathto a low carbon economy. It:

• sets out an ambitious long term goal to limit the temperature increase to1.5C;

• provides for a dynamic mechanism based on a meeting every five years(from 2023) to consider progress in emission reductions, adaptation andsupport provided and received in view of the long-term goals of theAgreement;

• fixes the obligation to pursue domestic mitigation measures, with the aim ofachieving the objectives of their contributions;

• prescribes a biennial submission by all parties of greenhouse gasinventories;

• establishes for the first time a global goal with the aim to enhance capacity,climate resilience and reduce climate vulnerability encouraging greatercooperation among parties to share scientific knowledge on adaptation as wellas information on practices and policies.

European Strategy for Low-Emission Mobility (20 July 2016)

9

To support the transition to low emission mobility the Commission foresees the followingobjectives and actions:

linking the transport and energy systems

encouraging research, innovation and competitiveness to support the long-termtransition towards zero-emission mobility;

creating the regulatory frameworks to provide incentives for the development andmarket uptake of digital technologies and setting standards to ensure interoperability,including across borders, and to enable data exchange while, at the same time,addressing data protection and cyber-security issues;

promoting the acquisition of new skills;

investing to support a more technologically neutral efficient transport system

supporting local authorities’ initiatives to encourage a modal shift to active travel(cycling and walking), public transport and/or shared mobility schemes, i.e. bike- andcar-sharing and car-pooling, to reduce congestion and pollution in cities;

identifying global actions for international transport

The Mobility Package 1/2

10

1) 31 May 2017: Communication “Europe on the Move. An agenda for a socially fairtransition towards clean, competitive and connected mobility for all”. It is accompanied byseveral proposals to:• support the rollout of infrastructure for road charging, alternative fuels and connectivity• ensure better information for consumers• create a stronger internal market• improve working conditions for the road haulage sector• lay the ground for cooperative, connected and automated mobility.

2) 8 November 2017: Communication “Delivering on Low-emission Mobility - A European Union that protects

the planet, empowers its consumers and defends its industry and workers”, outliningthe steps to make clean mobility a reality;

Communication “Towards the Broadest Use of Alternative Fuels - an Action Plan onAlternative Fuel Infrastructures, under Article 10(6) of Directive 2014/94/EU, including theassessment of national policy frameworks under Article 10(2) of Directive 2014/94/EU”;

a set of 4 legislative initiatives, targeting road and combined transport, which aim atstrengthening CO2 emission standards for new cars and vans from 2020, promoting cleanmobility through public procurement, stimulating combined use of trucks and trains, bargesand ships for the transport of goods and, finally, promoting the development of busconnections over long distances.

The Mobility Package 2/2

11

3) 17 May 2018: Communication “Europe on the move. Sustainable Mobility for Europe: safe,

connected, and clean”, presenting a strategic Action Plan on road safety for 2020-2030(Annex 1 explains the Strategic Action Plan on Road Safety while Annex 2 explains theStrategic Action Plan for Batteries);

Communication, “A Europe that Protects: Clean Air for All”;

Communication “On the Road to Automated Mobility: An EU Strategy for Mobility ofthe Future”;

a proposal for a regulation setting CO2 emission performance standards for newheavy-duty vehicles;

a legislative initiative to streamline procedures for advancing the trans-Europeantransport network.

SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Energy mix scenarios in mobility sector (1/2)

13Source: European Commission "EU Reference Scenario, 2016"

54% 54% 51%

19% 16%15%

16%17%

18%

6% 6%6%

3% 4% 6%

2% 2%4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2020 2030 2050

Estimated energy mix in transport in the EU, by fuel type (%)

Diesel Petrol Kerosene Biofuels Gaseous Electricity

• Despite the development of newrenewable energy sources, liquidhydrocarbons will continue to playa fundamental role in the futuremobility system.

• According to the EuropeanCommission study, " EU ReferenceScenario 2016: Energy, transportand GHG emissions Trends to2050", by 2030, fossil fuels willhold 70% of the energy share inthe transport sector, and 66% by2050. The most common fuel isand will be diesel, however, petrolwill also hold an important share,even if the alternative energy sharewill increase.

Energy mix scenarios in mobility sector (1/2)

14Source: OPEC

43 45,4 46,8 47,7 48,2 48,4

66,6 7,2 7,8 8,4 8,95,66,1

6,6 7 7,3 7,6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 2020* 2025* 2030* 2035* 2040*

Oil demand in the transport sector (millions of barrels per day)

Road Aviation Other

• The transport sector accounts for almost half of the world's oil demand.• Road transport currently holds first place in oil demand in the mobility sector (78%) and,

according to forecasts, it should remain so also in 2040 (74%). Interesting to note is that, alsoin this sector, the demand for oil barrels (mb/d) should continue to grow in the future,reaching an increase of 16% by 2040.

E-mobility and Alternative fuels

15Source: ANFIA

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

New Alternative fuel vehicle registrations (1st half 2017/2018)

2018 2017 % chg.

• Transport represents almost a quarter of Europe's greenhouse gas emissions and is the maincause of urban noise and air pollution, often in breach of air pollution limits. Therefore, movingtowards a low-emission mobility is essential to the broader shift towards an EU low-carboneconomy.

• According to ANFIA data, 567,008 alternative fuel vehicles were registered in the EU in the firsthalf of 2018. The best performing countries are Italy and Germany, where 141,000 and 87,000vehicles, respectively, had been registered. Comparing the 2018 data with those of the previousyear, the number of registered vehicles in Europe has risen by 26.2%.

Low Carbon Liquid Fuels (1/2)

16Source: European Automobile Manufacturers Association

• Cars driven by traditional engines (e.g. petrol or diesel) are and will remain the mostwidespread in the next years. According to the latest report released by the EuropeanAutomobile Manufacturers Association, in the first semester of 2018, the new vehiclesregistered in the EU, powered by petrol and diesel, accounted for 93% of the total.

• Investing in the research and development of Low Carbon Liquid Fuels is essential to reducinggreenhouse gas emissions.

41%

36%

48%

32%

33% 37

%

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%

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38%

27%

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53%

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31% 37

% 42%

33%

54% 58

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62%

58% 61

%

54%

63%

61%

71%

38%

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59% 66

%

77%

70%

41%

52% 58

%

66%

56%

46%

63%

4% 6% 4% 3% 5% 5%

15%

6% 5% 4% 5% 7%

13%

3%

7% 9%

6% 6% 4% 3% 3%

7%

12%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

New car registrations in the EU (1st half 2018)

Diesel Petrol Alternative fuels

THE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION IN

THE TRANSPORT SECTOR

Car sharing market

18Source: University of California, Berkeley, 2018

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016Members 346.610 670.822 1.163.645 1.788.027 4.842.616 15.050.19Vehicles 11.501 19.403 31.967 43.554 104.125 157.416

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

180.000

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2.000.000

4.000.000

6.000.000

8.000.000

10.000.000

12.000.000

14.000.000

16.000.000

Vehi

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Mem

bers

Global car sharing market

010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.000

0

2.000.000

4.000.000

6.000.000

8.000.000

10.000.000

Asia Europe NorthAmerica

Oceania Africa SouthAmerica

Car sharing market, by region (2016)

Members Vehicles (right axis)

In 2016, car sharing was operatingin 46 countries and six continents,with an estimated 2,095 cities andapproximately 15 million memberssharing over 157,000 vehicles.Both members and vehiclesincreased exponentially between2014 and 2016, with a growth rateof 211% and 51%, respectively.

Asia is the largest car sharingregion, in terms of members andvehicles, followed by Europe andNorth America. Asia accounts for58% of worldwide members and43% of global fleets deployed. Theworld’s second largest car sharingmarket, Europe, accounts for 29%of worldwide members and 37% ofvehicle fleets.

Opportunities and challenges of carsharing and user experiences

19Source: ING Bank, 2018

• According to the ING Bank survey, the majority of people (61%) said ‘yes’ when askedwhether they would share their car in return for money.

• Willingness to share your own car is especially high in Turkey, Italy and Spain, but low inBelgium and the Netherlands

79%

66% 65%60% 59% 59% 56% 53% 52% 49% 45% 44% 41%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Percentage of respondents willing to share a car for money, by country

3,8 4,7 5,9 7,0 8,3 9,9 11,6 13,5 15,818,5

21,510,1 10,3

10,610,8

11,111,3

11,611,9

12,112,4

12,7

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Total number of active device connections worldwide (installed base, in billions)

IoT Non IoT

The new digital framework: IoT & 5G

20

Source: IoT Analytics Research, 2018

• The growth of the Internet of Things increases:• the number of digital objects and devices connected to the Internet, which exceeded 17

billion by mid-2018 the total amount of data circulating on the Internet. Data managing applications involve cloud computing services as well as ultra-

broadband connections. • 5G is a revolutionary technology in order to constantly manage a proper information

flow and reduce latency.

5G spectrum auctions in Europe

21Source: I-Com elaborations on Mise, Ofcom, CMT, Ficora data.

• Compared to previous standards, 5G significantly increases the sustainable bandwidth ofboth uplink and downlink, and guarantees responsiveness that is under on millisecond,almost equal to real time.

• These characteristics are extremely important in order to support services such autonomousdriving, which requires a very important real-time data flow and needs to immediatefeedback to possible obstacles or variations on the route.

• Currently the 5G frequencies were assigned in the United Kingdom, Italy, Finland and Spain.• The elaboration shows that the price paid by operators in Italy is from 3 to 4 times higher

than the ones paid in Spain (€758 million) and the United Kingdom (€589 million) and morethan 7 times than in Finland (€256 million).

European comparison on 5G auctions’ frequency price Country Total price Availability

(years) Population (2017) MHz Frequency band

Price per MHz (in €, per 100.000 inhab.)

Italy 4.346.820.000 € 18 60.589.445 200 3,6-3,8 GHz 1.993 €

Spain 1.410.700.000 € 20 46.528.024 200 3,6-3,8 GHz 758 €

United Kingdom 1.143.714.909 € 20 65.808.573 150 3,4-3,6

GHz 579 €

Finland 77.000.000 € 14 5.503.297 390 3,4-3,8 GHz 256 €

Classification of autonomous vehicles

22I-COM elaboration on SAE International, 2016

• Level 1 vehicles are able to inform thedriver, for instance through acousticalarms in parking assistance, but who isstill required to take control at any time.

• Level 2 (Partial Driving Automation)indicates vehicles provided with systemswhich are able to drive under certainconditions and on certain roads.

• Level 3 (Conditional DrivingAutomation) includes cars which canmonitor the full environment, but stillneed the driver’s decision in particularsituations. In other words, the driverhas to be ready to intervene on vehiclerequest.

• Level 4 (High Driving Automation) andimplies that cars are able to drivecompletely independently, but may notbe capable of self-managing underspecific circumstances.

• Level 5 is identified as Full Automation,a system that should be able to handle,unconditionally, all driving tasks just as ahuman driver.

Leve

l

Name

DDT (Dynamic Driving Task)

DDTfallback

ODD (Operational

Design Domain)

Sustained lateral and longitudinal vehicle motion

control

OEDR (Object and Event

Detection and Response)

Driver performs part or all of the DDT

0 No Driving Automation Driver Driver Driver N/A

1 DriverAssistance Dnver and System Driver Driver Limited

2 Partial DrivingAutomation System Driver Driver Limited

ADS (Automated Driving System) performs the entire

DDT (while engaged)System System

Fallback-ready user (becomes

the driver during fallback)

Limited

3Conditional

Driving Automation

4 High Driving Automation System System System Limited

5 Full DrivingAutomation System System System Unlimited

Summary of levels of driving automation

Estimated diffusion of autonomous cars

23

• Level 2 cars should reach 5 million units soldby 2020, climbing up to 33 million in 2025.Level 3 cars should reach 4 million units by2020 and 13 million by 2025.

• By 2030, level 2 and level 3 car sales shouldbegin to decline, due to the increase in level 4and level 5 vehicles.

• Fully autonomous cars (level 5) will beavailable only after 2025, reaching 12 millionunits sold per year by 2030

• According to IHS Automotive, level 3+Autonomous Vehicles, should account formore than 50% of the total cars sold by2030, while electric vehicles should accountfor 15%

• one car in every three connected (orautonomous) cars sold could be electric,while the other 2 could be powered byanother type of energy.

• Fully autonomous vehicles sold on globalsales will reaching 15% of sales in 2035 and50% by 2040Source: ICCT on ICCT, HIS, McKinsey (2017)

0,0%10,0%20,0%30,0%40,0%50,0%60,0%70,0%80,0%90,0%

100,0%

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Projection on electric, semi-autonomous and fully autonomous vehicles (in million units installed)

Electric vehicles (ICCT) Fully autonomous vehicles (IHS)Level 3+ autonomy (McKinsey) Fully autonomous vehicles (McKinsey)

0

20

40

60

80

100

2017 2020 2025 2030

Estimated autonomous cars sold, by type (U.S, EU and China)

Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5

Source: PwC (September 2017)

Main obstacles to the growth ofconnected cars

24

According to a survey conducted in 2017 on83 automotive and technology executivesbetween America and Asia , IT security andprivacy - selected by 31% of respondents -are an important concern for connectedcars and the main obstacle to theirdevelopment.

In addition, cybersecurityattacks emerged as the toplegal issue for 63% ofrespondents.

Source: Foley, 2017

6%

10%

13%

18%

19%

31%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Cost

Consumer readiness to adopt

Lack of regulatory framework

Safety concerns

Capabilities of the technology

Cyber security & privacy

Main obstacles to the growth of connected cars

33%38%

43%55%

58%63%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

WarrantiesConsumer data privacy

Compliance with state and federal…Personal injury/ property liability

Intellectual property protectionCybersecurity attacks

Titolo

Main legal issues to be addressed before the development of connected and autonomous cars, according to a survey

of US and Asia automotive and technology executives

POLICY CONCLUSIONS

Sustainable mobility

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Investing in the research and development of Low Carbon Liquid Fuel is thereforeessential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In specific, the development of low-emission hydrocarbon liquid fuels offers a significant opportunity to effectively meetmarket demand while also contributing to address the risks posed by climate change.Collaboration across industries and sectors will be key to bringing innovativetechnologies for low-carbon liquid fuels and other products to market. Therefore,establishing an EU industrial symbiosis across the chemical and fuels productionsectors, as well as the transport sector, will be essential to accelerate the marketreadiness of low-carbon technologies.

To enable EV penetration it is need to invest in generation and the charginginfrastructure and in the research and development of batteries, with the goal ofreducing costs, improving performance in terms of autonomy and capacity, decreasethe long-term environmental impacts of raw materials employed and processingprocesses.

The global adoption of fuel cell electric vehicles should be driven by incentives andgovernment policies that boost consumer acceptance and higher private investmentsby companies seeking to establish a global network of fuel cell refueling stations.

Digital mobility

27

Autonomous Vehicles diffusion will change dramatically the transport sector as weknow it, probably having significant impact traffic, employment and accidents. Aboutthe latter, improvements could also come from the Blockchain technology’sintroduction.

According to estimates, all the cars sold by 2025 will be connected vehicles. Semi-autonomous cars should reach a good diffusion by 2025, while fully autonomous carswill start spreading by 2030, reaching 12 million units sold per year.

Only part of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles will be electric. According to theInternational Council on Clean Transportation, the ratio should be one on three carsold, while the other 2 could be powered with other type of energy.

Autonomous Vehicles’ impact on energy consumption is currently hard to estimatetoday, because too many variables could radically change the scenario. Severalreports and researches show how these effects may vary and, according to some,could even lead to an increase in energy consumption. Final outcomes will stronglydepend on how Autonomous Vehicle’s will be used and regulated. For these reasons,it seems important that further research could support the Eu Legislator to correctlyassess the future of mobility, and draw up proper measures for a satisfactorydevelopment which could balance benefits and challenges related to the thistransformation.

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