Presentation to the Graduation Rates Committee Ramona Danielson, Research Analyst North Dakota State Data Center March 9, 2010

Paradigm shift United Way of Cass-Clay is undertaking a bold and exciting step - moving from a focus on outcomes and symptoms to an examination of root causes United Way of Cass-Clays three priorities: Education Health Income

Our approach to the United Way of Cass-Clay Needs Assessment How to set parameters? (Cant cover everything) The three pillars are intertwined and should be viewed holistically Education is the major underlying thread Education is an ongoing process Therefore, needs assessment is organized around formative education Primary and secondary grades Required by law, captures greatest diversity Sets the stage for future learning (regardless of age)

Three educational stages Recognize process involves stages of educational development 1. School readiness How well prepared a person is to enter the educational system 2. In-school success What influences students performance in school 3. Achievement Logic we use is transferrable to any age E.g., adult education utilizes these elements as well

Theoretical framework How can you be an effective change agent? How can you understand causal links? How does a community identify what needs should be satisfied in order to impact the desired behavior/outcomes? We consulted the developmental literature and utilized Asset Development as a framework to guide our analysis Frame for what activities are needed to best improve desired outcomes

What are assets? Combination of skill sets and a supportive environment Internal = positive experiences and qualities that help influence the choices people make External = supportive components of the community, family, or networks that create a nurturing environment Needs must be viewed from BOTH the individual and support systems perspective

Availability of data on assets A rich database for the F/M metropolitan area: Survey conducted in 2007 by Search Institute for Moorhead Healthy Community Initiative (now Metro Youth Partnership) Students in grades 4 through 12 in Fargo, West Fargo, and Moorhead school districts No corresponding data for adults at the time of our study However, the asset model is transferrable to ANY age group

Search Institutes Developmental Asset Framework 40 assets divided into two main groups with subsectors Positive experiences and qualities that help influence the choices young people make in their development to adulthood 20 external assets: Support Empowerment Boundaries and expectations Constructive use of time 20 internal assets: Commitment to learning Positive values Social competencies Positive identity

Examples of EXTERNAL assets Support Positive family communication Young person and her/his parent(s) communicate positively, and young person is willing to seek advice and counsel from parents. Empowerment Community values youth Young person perceives that adults in the community value youth. Boundaries and expectations Adult role models Parent(s) and other adults model positive, responsible behavior. Constructive use of time Creative activities Young person spends three or more hours per week in lessons or practice in music, theater, or other arts.

Examples of INTERNAL assets Commitment to learning Reading for pleasure Young person reads for pleasure three or more hours per week. Positive values Restraint Young person believes it is important not to be sexually active or to use alcohol or other drugs. Social competencies Cultural competence Young person has knowledge of and comfort with people of different cultural/racial/ethnic backgrounds. Positive identity Self-esteem Young person reports having a high self-esteem.

Three major themes Our needs assessment highlights three themes that should be considered in order to improve the well- being of children and families in the F/M area: 1. Asset development among youth 2. Self-sufficiency among families 3. Important differentials by location, diverse groups

Selection of data/indicators Utilized Child Trends national research Provides scientific context to why indicators are important Availability at focused levels of geography F/M metropolitan area (i.e., Cass and Clay counties) our primary focus Focused on primary and secondary educational process

1. Asset development among youth Direct correlation between assets and risk-taking behaviors Risky behaviors: alcohol, tobacco, drug use; sexual intercourse; anti-social behavior; violence Youth in grades 6 through 12 with 10 or fewer assets engaged in 8X as many risky behaviors than youth with 31 or more assets With every increase of 10 assets, on average, youth will cut in half the number of risky behaviors in which they engage

Figure 1. Average Number of Risk-Taking Behaviors (out of 24) by Asset Level for Students in Grades 6-12 in Fargo, Moorhead, and West Fargo Schools: May 2007

Asset development Direct correlation between assets and thriving behaviors Thriving behaviors: success in school, helping others, valuing diversity, healthy eating, resisting danger Youth in grades 6 through 12 with 10 or fewer assets engaged in half as many thriving behaviors as youth with 31 or more assets! Asset development increases the likelihood of positive outcomes across the board among youth and adults!

Figure 2. Average Number of Thriving Indicators (out of 8) by Asset Level for Students in Grades 6-12 in Fargo, Moorhead, and West Fargo Schools: May 2007

Figure 3. Average Number of Assets (out of 40) that Students Reported having, by Grade, in Fargo, Moorhead, and West Fargo Schools: May 2007

Focus on categories of assets Greatest need in F/M area is in external assets, especially: Support Empowerment Boundaries and expectations Note: There is a systematic decline in assets by grade

External: Support Figure 4. Percent of Students in Grades 4-12 Who Report Having Each External Asset, by Grade, in Fargo, Moorhead, and West Fargo Schools: May 2007

External: Empowerment Figure 5. Percent of Students in Grades 4-12 Who Report Having Each External Asset, by Grade, in Fargo, Moorhead, and West Fargo Schools: May 2007

External: Boundaries and expectations Figure 6. Percent of Students in Grades 4-12 Who Report Having Each External Asset, by Grade, in Fargo, Moorhead, and West Fargo Schools: May 2007

Focus on categories of assets Some important needs in F/M area regarding internal assets, especially: Social competencies Positive values Gender differences: Commitment to learning (higher for girls) Social competencies (higher for girls) Positive values (higher for girls) Positive identity (lower for girls)

Internal: Commitment to learning Figure 7. Percent of Students in Grades 4-12 Who Report Having Each Internal Asset, by Grade, in Fargo, Moorhead, and West Fargo Schools: May 2007 Grades 6 to 12: Males = 53% Females = 69% Grades 6 to 12: Males = 55% Females = 73%

Internal: Positive values Figure 8. Percent of Students in Grades 4-12 Who Report Having Each Internal Asset, by Grade, in Fargo, Moorhead, and West Fargo Schools: May 2007 Grades 6 to 12: Males = 38% Females = 61% Grades 6 to 12: Males = 38% Females = 60%

Internal: Social competencies Figure 9. Percent of Students in Grades 4-12 Who Report Having Each Internal Asset, by Grade, in Fargo, Moorhead, and West Fargo Schools: May 2007 Grades 6 to 12: Males = 29% Females = 61% Grades 6 to 12: Males = 37% Females = 64%

Internal: Positive identity Figure 10. Percent of Students in Grades 4-12 Who Report Having Each Internal Asset, by Grade, in Fargo, Moorhead, and West Fargo Schools: May 2007 Grades 6 to 12: Males = 57% Females = 44%

2. Self-sufficiency among families Ability for individuals and families to be self-sufficient is a critical element in the long-term success of the F/M area Proportion of unmarried women with at most a high school degree giving birth Poverty among school-age children by school district Poverty among children with foreign-born parents Homeless children

Figure 11. Women Who Gave Birth within the Past 12 Months Percent Who are Unmarried with, At Most, a High School Diploma: 2008

Figure 12. Children ages 5 to 17 Percent Living in Poverty by Public School District: 2000 and 2008

Figure 13. Children ages 0 to 17 with All Parents Foreign Born Percent in Poverty: 2008

Figure 14. Homeless Children Enrolled in School as Reported by Public School Districts: 2007-08 and 2008-09

3. Differentials Data demonstrate marked differences within the F/M area by location, diverse groups Area is not homogeneous May find more success with strategic approaches rather than single solutions intended to fit all Need to pinpoint areas of greatest need Local context is an integral part of a successful solution

OUTCOME DATA Organized by the educational stages mentioned earlier 1. School readiness 2. In-school success 3. Achievement Data demonstrate there are needs in our community

Stage 1: School readiness Working parents Higher income, in turn, is associated with many positive child outcomes including better health, academic achievement, and financial well-being as adults. Social and emotional development Nevertheless, children whose skills are far behind those of their new classmates do enter school at a disadvantage. If they are unable to catch up, they face greater challenges throughout their school careers. Children who arrive at kindergarten with social competencies generally have an easier time forming relationships with their peers and better school outcomes.

Figure 15. Children Ages 0 to 5 Percent with All Parents in the Labor Force by School District: 2000 and 2008

Figure 16. Children Ages 4 Months to 5 Years Percent at Moderate to High Risk for Developmental, Behavioral, or Social Delays: 2003 and 2007

Stage 2: In-school success Foster care Children in foster care are more likely to be suspended or expelled from school and to exhibit low levels of school engagement and involvement with extracurricular activities. As adults, children who spent long periods of time in multiple foster care homes were more likely than other children to encounter problems such as unemployment, homelessness, and incarceration, as well as to experience early pregnancy. Alcohol use Alcohol use among youth is associated with a wide variety of risky behaviors and poor outcomes and is also related to an increased risk of alcohol dependence in adulthood. Sexual activity Sexually active teenagers are at an immediate risk of becoming pregnant and/or of acquiring a sexually transmitted infection (STI). Adolescents who delay their first sexual experience are less likely to regret the timing of their first experience, have fewer sexual partners, and are less likely to be involved in unhealthy sexual relationships.

Figure 17. Children Served by the Foster Care System Rate Per 1,000 Children: 1991 to 2008

Figure 18. Percent of Youth in Grades 6-12 Who Used Alcohol At Least Once in Past Month, by Grade and Gender, in Fargo, Moorhead, and West Fargo Schools: May 2007

Figure 19. High School Students in Grades 9-12 Who Ever Had Sexual Intercourse: 1995 to 2007 *Planning Region V includes the North Dakota counties of Cass, Steele, Traill, Ransom, Richland, and Sargent.

Figure 20. Percent of Youth in Grades 6-12 Who Have Had Sexual Intercourse at Least Once, by Grade and Gender, in Fargo, Moorhead, and West Fargo Schools: May 2007

Stage 3: Achievement Math proficiency Young people who transition to adulthood with limited mathematics skills are likely to find it difficult to function in society. Basic arithmetic skills are required for everyday computations and sometimes for job applications. Competence in mathematics skills is related to higher levels of employability. Graduation rates Young people who drop out of high school are unlikely to have the minimum skills and credentials necessary to function in todays increasingly complex society and technological workplace. Young adults with low education and skill levels are more likely to live in poverty and to receive government assistance. High school drop outs are more likely to become involved in crime. Idle youth Steady employment is one of the steps to becoming an independent adult. Higher levels of education are increasingly necessary to obtain steady well-paying employment. Males who are neither enrolled in school nor working are more likely to engage in delinquent behavior or illegal activities to earn money. Females are more likely to become dependent on welfare.

Figure 21. Math Proficiency Rates that did not Meet Math Proficiency Goals, by Subgroup, in the Moorhead Public School District: 2008-09

Figure 22. Math Proficiency Rates that did not Meet Math Proficiency Goals, by Subgroup, in the Fargo Public School District: 2008-09

Figure 23. Math Proficiency Rates that did not Meet Math Proficiency Goals, by Subgroup, in the West Fargo Public School District: 2008-09

Figure 24. Graduation Rates by School District: 2008-09

Figure 25. Youth ages 16 to 19 Percent Not Enrolled in School and Not Working by School District: 2000

Effectiveness of needs assessment Please review the draft report we provided Will this be an effective tool to assist in your strategic planning?

North Dakota State Data Center Ramona Danielson, Research Analyst [email protected] Phone: (701) 231-9496 Dr. Richard Rathge, Director [email protected] Phone: (701) 231-8621 North Dakota State Data Center at NDSU, P.O. Box 6050, Dept. 8000, Fargo, ND 58108-6050 Phone: (701) 231-7980 Fax: (701) 231-9730 URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc

Documents

Presentation to the Graduation Rates Committee Ramona Danielson, Research Analyst North Dakota State Data Center March 9, 2010