PRESENTATION SUMMARY

PRESENTATION SUMMARYPRESENTATION SUMMARY• Introduction Introduction

– Overview (Overview (M. RyanM. Ryan))• GeographyGeography

– Living with the Red (Living with the Red (M. ClamenM. Clamen))• Conclusions and RecommendationsConclusions and Recommendations

• Accomplishment'sAccomplishment's– Improvements in Flood Forecasting (Improvements in Flood Forecasting (Dan LunaDan Luna))

• MitigationMitigation (Structural/non-structural/Policy/Legislation changes) (Structural/non-structural/Policy/Legislation changes)– North of the BorderNorth of the Border

• Manitoba (Manitoba (D. McNeilD. McNeil))– South of the BorderSouth of the Border

• US Federal (US Federal (J. DeHarnaisJ. DeHarnais))• US StateUS State (D. Frink) (D. Frink)

• Summary Summary – What’s next? (What’s next? (M. RyanM. Ryan))

• QuestionsQuestions

Accomplishments – ImprovementsAccomplishments – Improvements

NOAA/NWSRiver Forecast Center Chanhassen,

MNManitoba Water Stewardship

Red River Flood of the Century

10 years later

4th International Symposium on Flood DefenceMay 6, 2008

Dan Luna, NOAA/NWSAccomplishments – Improvements



Recommendations from the IJC Report after the ’97 Flood

• Implement Advance Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS).

• Improve hydrometeorologic data networks.• Improve communications among forecasters

with the public.• Data supporting the operation of the hydraulic

models and model outputs should be made widely available.

Accomplishments – Improvements



SpecificallyImplemented AHPS and new modeling.

• 1999 – FLDWAV implemented.• 2002 – MIKE-11 implemented as a planning and

potential forecasting tool along with a gis-based user tool.




Manitoba

North

Dakota

Morris

Grand Forks

WinnipegMIKE-11MIKE-11

modelmodel

SelkirkPTH #4 bridge

Water levelsWater levels

calculated calculated

at 935 points.at 935 points.

Flow Flow

calculated calculated

at 525 pointsat 525 points






potential forecasting tool along with a gis-based user tool.

• 2005 - Existing FLDWAV model was updated by adding 161 cross-sections. Total – 554.




• Background LIDAR• Dark blue - Red

River• Light blue -

secondary channel• Green – cross-

sections• Yellow with Red

outline – City of Fargo






potential forecasting tool along gis-based tools.• 2005 - Existing FLDWAV model was updated by

adding 161 cross-sections. Total – 554.• 2006 Lumped model was re-calibrated.




What Did We Do? Implemented AHPS and new modeling.

Improved hydrometeorologic data networks.




Stations that report daily




LEGEND




What Did We Do? Implemented AHPS and new modeling. Improved hydrometeorologic data networks.• Drastically improved communications among

forecasters with the public and emergency management and improved Municipal, Provincial and Local Response.




Communication, Coordination, and Collaboration are a must

• Flows are sent to Manitoba as well as our other Federal water partners.

• Coordination takes place continually during significant floods.

• Collaboration takes place during high impact events (New for 2006).




Successes in Spring 2006• Started communicating our concerns as early as

1/9/06 and followed that up in early February with updated information. Really stressed our concerns.

• Continued this approach as time went on and expanded the e-mail list to those appropriate.

• Asked the “local flood experts” their opinions in terms of what they thought the possibilities were before forecast issuance.




Successes Spring 2006 ‘cont

• Conveyed information daily via conference calls and state EOCs.

• With IWI involvement we held 2 Press Conferences, before and during flood.

• Resulting communication was one clear voice.• Resulting coordination and collaboration was

one forecast with credibility.Accomplishments – Improvements



What’s Next? Recommendations• FLDWAV model needs to be expanded.• Cross-sections extended and/or added.• Area included within the model, Sheyenne River

upstream to Kindred.• Assumes additional LIDAR data will be available




What’s Next? Recommendations• Need to further improve hydrometeorological

networks – additional snow water equivalent, frost, and rainfall data essential to better forecasting.

• Need to have a better grass roots effort in terms of providing this critical data to the river forecast centres in Minnesota and Winnipeg when we have the potential for significant flooding.


Documents

PRESENTATION SUMMARY