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Slow Trade
Aaditya MattooPIIE March 2016
Based on research with Cristina Constantinescu and Michele Ruta, including World Bank Policy
Research Working Paper No. 7158
Four questions1. What is happening to global trade?
2. Why?
3. Does the trade slowdown matter?
4. Was 2015 different and what does it portend?
2
Main points1. The trade slowdown is explained in part by
the maturing of manufacturing value chains
2. The slowdown may hurt growth prospects for both demand‐ and supply‐side reasons
3. But changes in China may create new opportunities and services trade may be the silver lining
3
WHAT IS HAPPENING TO GLOBAL TRADE?
Question 1
4
Trade share in GDP levelled off before the great recession
5
Total imports (goods and services) as a share of GDP have been relatively flat, especially in China and the US), both pre‐ and post‐crisis
80
130
180
230
280
330United States
Euro Area
China
World
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
Shares of Import Volumes in Real GDP (Index, 1990=100)
Trade and income: the “long 90s” were different
6
012345678
1970-1985 1986-2000 2001-2014
Total trade volume (goods and services)
GDP in constant prices
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2015). Notes: GDP growth based on PPP rates.
Annual growth rates across selected periods
WHY?
Question 2
7
The trade slowdown is due to manufacturing
8
Goods slowed down rather than services…
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Goods Commercial services
percen
t
1986-2000 2001-2013
… due to a slow down in manufacturing rather than commodities
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Machinery and Transport Equipment
Other goods
percen
t
1986-2000 2001-2013
Within manufacturing, trade growth and slowdown is linked to vertical fragmentation
9
In the long 1990s, fragmented sectors grow the fastest
In the 2000s, fragmented sectors slow down
China’s imports of parts and components reflect changes in global value chains
10
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
3419
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
China’s Imports of Parts and Components as a Share of Exports ofManufactured Goods, 1992-2013 (percent)
Source: UN Comtrade databaseNote: BEC data on China in Comtrade only start in 1995.
China specializes in assembly, increasing imports of parts and components
China moves up the value chain, domestic inputs replace foreign inputs
WHY DOES THE TRADE SLOWDOWN MATTER?
Question 4
11
One view: it doesn’t
12
The world is as open as it ever has been and openness per se has dynamic benefits
The other view: the trade slowdown may hurt growth
13
On the demand side (Keynes): • Sluggish world imports reduce export opportunities for individual countries
On the supply side (Adam Smith): • Slower pace of GVC expansion diminishes scope for productivity growth through a more efficient international division of labor and knowledge diffusion
14
Productivity Growth versus Vertical Specialization, Average Country in the Sample
Supply side: the Smithian concern
Source: UNIDO (INDSTAT2), UN Comtrade, and authors’ calculations.Notes: ISIC2 industry codes are used; productivity is normalized using average industry productivity; weights are represented by value added.ISIC2 codes: 25 Manufacture of rubber and plastics products; 26 Manufacture of other non‐metallic mineral products; 28 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment; 29 Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.; 30 Manufacture of office, accounting and computing machinery; 31 Manufacture of electrical machinery and aparatus n.e.c.; 32 Manufacture of radio,television and communication equipment and apparatus ; 33 Manufacture of medical, precision and optical instruments, watches andclocks ; 34 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi‐trailers; 35 Manufacture of other transport equipment; 36 Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing n.e.c.
33
32
26
34
25
30
35
31
2936
28
33
3226
3425
303531
29
36
28
050
100
150
200
0 20 40 60
1986-2000 2001-2014
Pro
duct
ivity
Gro
wth
(ave
rage
by
perio
d, p
erce
nt)
Vertical specialization (world imports of parts and componentsas a share of world total exports, average 1986-2014, percent)
WAS 2015 DIFFERENT AND WHAT DOES IT PORTEND?
Question 3
15
Two mutually reinforcing factors
• China’s transition to a new growth path (structural?)
• Decline in commodity prices (cyclical?)
16
Exposure to China and ExportContraction
17
USA
DEUJPN
NLD
KOR
FRAITA
RUS
CAN
GBR
BEL SGP
MEX
SAU
INDESP
ARE
AUS
MYSTHA
BRA
POLIDNCZE
AUTSWE
TUR
VNM
NOR
QAT
IRL
DNKHUN
NGAKWT
ZAF
IRN
SVK
IRQ
CHL
VEN
FIN
KAZ
ISRROU
ARG
PRT
DZA
PHL
AGO
COL
UKR
OMN
NZLPER
BHR
BLR
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Grow
th in
total m
erchan
dise export value
s, Jan‐No
v 2015
relative to Ja
n‐No
v 2014
Exposure to China (share of exports to China in country's total exports, percent)
Sixty largest exporters, 2015: Jan‐Nov versus 2014: Jan‐Nov
Reversal of fortune
18
Sources: IMF Direction of Trade and UN Comtrade.
ARG
AUS
AUT
BEL
BLR
BRA
CANCHLCZE
DEU
DNK
ESP
FIN
FRA
GBR
HUNIDN
IND
IRL
ISR
ITAJPN
KOR
MEX
MYS
NLD
NZL
PER
PHL
POL
PRT
ROU
SGPSVK
SVN
SWETHA
TUR
UKR
USA
VNM
ZAF
-40
-20
020
40
Gro
wth
in m
erch
andi
se e
xpor
t val
ues
to C
hina
,Ja
n-S
ep 2
015
vs. J
an-S
ep 2
014(
perc
ent)
0 20 40 60 80 100Share of intermediates in merchandise exports to China, 2014 (percent)
weighted by total merchandise exports to Chinasixty largest world exporters excluding oil exporters, Hong Kong and Switzerland
intermediates
ARG
AUS
AUT
BEL
BLR
BRA
CANCHLCZE
DEU
DNK
ESP
FIN
FRA
GBR
HUNIDN
IND
IRL
ISR
ITAJPN
KOR
MEX
MYS
NLD
NZL
PER
PHL
POL
PRT
ROU
SGP SVK
SVN
SWETHA
TUR
UKR
USA
VNM
ZAF
-40
-20
020
40
Gro
wth
in m
erch
andi
se e
xpor
t val
ues
to C
hina
,Ja
n-S
ep 2
015
vs. J
an-S
ep 2
014(
perc
ent)
0 20 40 60 80Share of consumer goods in merchandise exports to China, 2014 (percent)weighted by total merchandise exports to Chinasixty largest world exporters excluding oil exporters, Hong Kong and Switzerland
consumer goods
Growth in merchandise exports to China, by share of intermediate goods and consumer goods
China’s services imports begin to pull away
19
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
China: Imports of Goods and Services, bill. USD (index 2011Q1=100)
Services Imports
Goods Imports
Source: IMF Balance of Payments Statistics
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
China: Share of Services in Total Imports (percent)
Indices of China’s import values of goods and services and share of services in total imports, 2011‐2015
The purse‐tightening of the commodity exporters…
20
Indices of Import Volume of the Russian Federation and Turkey, 2010‐2015
…and the puzzling frugality of the commodity importers
Services trade has been relatively resilient
21
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
‐15
‐10
‐5
0
5
10
15
20World Import Volumes of Goods and Services
Goods: Growth rates Services: Growth rates
Goods (1993=100, RHS) Services (1993=100, RHS)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
It declined less during the crisis and has grown faster after the crisis ‐ due to digitization and demographics
Declining pace of goods trade liberalization may have played a role in the trade slowdown
Faster trade liberalization in the 1990s relative to the 2000s22
Average applied tariffs in advanced economies and emerging and developing economies (percent)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Advanced Economies Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
Source: UNCTAD TRAINS. *Simple averages of MFN Applied and Preferential tariffsNote: The data for tariffs does not pertain to a consistent sample of countries over time.
23
New Database covers 103 countries (of which 79 are developing)
Source: Borchert, Gootiiz and Mattoo (2013)
But in services scope for further liberalization –potentially boosting both services and goods trade