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Rosalina G. de GuzmanPAGASA‐DOSTPhilippines
Department of Science and TechnologyPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Latest Scientific Knowledge on Climate Change and Comprehensive Countermeasures‐towards IPCC Yokohama SessionYokohama, JapanFebruary 14,2014
Outline of Presentation
Philippines is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
Ranks 3rd in the World Index Report 2013
The Philippines is one of the mostdisaster‐prone countries in the world,experiencing an average of 20 typhoonsper year. According to the AsianDevelopment Bank, the country losesUS$1.6 billion a year on average becauseof disasters
Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in theWestern North Pacific (WNP) during the period1948‐2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formedin the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Dataused: JMA Data set).
s.Tropical Cyclone Frequencyusing 1°x1° (1948‐2010)
s.Visited by an average
19 to 20 Tropical cyclonesEVERY YEAR
Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North PacificPeriod: (1948‐2010)
Trends of Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones
y = -0.026x + 20.22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Nu
mb
er o
f Tro
pic
al C
yclo
nes
Year
Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PAR Period: 1948-2013
Number of Tropical Cyclones
Five-year running mean
Linear (Five-year running mean)
The Frequency of annual Tropical cyclones does not show a clear trend, but it shows inter annual variability.
17 14 8 1237
54
135 133118
76
44 3612 6 10 18
30
50
8372
79
92
90
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Num
ber of Tropical Cyclon
es
Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and landfalling/crossing the Philippines
Period: 1948‐2013 (66 years)
Number of Landfalling TC's
Number of non‐Landfalling TC's
Monthly
Mean 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.3
The monthly mean frequency indicates that there is no month that the Philippines is free of tropical cyclones. It is most active during the months of July, August and September, while there are more number of land falling T.C.s during the last quarter.
Trends of Extreme Tropical Cyclones(>150Kph)
The Frequency of Extreme Tropical Cyclones (having winds of > 150 kph) does not show any significant trend, however, there is a decadal variability. Currently, the trend of occurrence of strong typhoon is on the rise or in its active phase.
(9),1987
(10), 2004
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Fre
qu
ency
of
TC
Year
Number of Extreme Typhoon (150 kph and above)Period: 1971-2013
Mean= 5.8 or 6 TCsNeutral yearEl Niño yearLa Niña year
DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD:1970‐2010
TC NAME Date of OccurrenceTotal damage
in Billion PhP
TY Yolanda(Haiyan) Nov 6 – 9, 2013 39,621.497 ++
TY PABLO(Bopha) Dec 3 – 9, 2012 43,164.245
TY PEPENG (Parma) Sep 30 ‐ Oct 10 2009 27.296722
TY PEDRING SEP 24‐ 28, 2011 15.552000
TY FRANK (Fengshen) Jun 18 – 23, 2008 13.500000
TY JUAN (Megi) Oct16 – 21, 2010 11.500000
TS_ONDOY (Ketsana) Sep 24 – 27, 2009 10.952198
TY_RUPING NOV 8‐14, 1990 10.846000
DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE Number of Casualties > 300
TC NAME Date of Occurrence Casualties
TY Yolanda (Haiyan) Nov 6 – 9, 2013 6201
TS Uring * Nov 1‐6, 1991 5101
TS Sendong (Washi) * Dec 15‐17, 2011 1268
TY Pablo Dec 3 – 9, 2012 1067
TY Nitang Aug 31 – Sep 4, 1984 1029
TY Trix Oct 17‐23, 1952 995
TY Amy Dec 6‐11, 1951 991
TY Rosing Oct 30‐Nov 4, 1995 936
MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC
TC NAMEMaximum Wind
(kph)Date of Occurrence
TY Reming 320 (Virac) Nov 30, 2006
TY Loleng 287 (Virac) Oct 21, 1998
TY Anding 280 (Virac) Nov 27, 1981
TY Sening 276 (Virac) Oct 13, 1970
TY Wening 269 (Aparri) Oct 27, 1974
TY Trining 269 (Masbate) Dec 15, 1987
MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC
TC NAMEMaximum 24‐hour
rainfall (mm)
Date of
Occurrence
TY Feria 1085.8 (Baguio) July 4, 2001
TY Iliang 994.6(Baguio) Oct 14, 1998
TY Trining 979.4 (Baguio) Oct 17, 1967
TY Susang 781.4 (Baguio) Oct 11, 1974
TY Trining 760.0 (Baguio) Oct 27, 1991
TY Ditang 730.3(Baguio) May 15, 1980
Tropical cyclone statistics in the Philippines
Increasing cost of Damage*The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong
were characterized by flashfloods.
Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)
IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL
RED colored years are EL NINO years, BLUE colored years are LA NINAyears and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years
Legend:
Severe drought impacts
Drought impacts with major losses
Moderate drought impacts
Near normal to above normal condition
Way above normal condition
Potential for flood damage
Severe flood damage
¥
Damage on Tropical Cyclone
Tropical Cyclone Stats: 1970‐2012:
Affected families: 3,016,596
Affected persons: =154,433.96 Million
Casualties: 26,835 persons
Cost of Damages: 1970‐2012
Agriculture: PhP 231.03 Billion
Infrastructure: PhP 93.01 Billion
Private properties: PhP 13.60 Billion
Total cost of damages: PhP 337.60 Billion
Source: Office of Civil Defense
Note: Damage report for 2013 is sill not available
TY Frank June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars)
TY Milenyo Sep 25‐29, 2006
TY Reming Nov. 2006
TY Feria Jul 2001
TS Ondoy 26 Sep 2009
Landslide : Ginsaugon, Feb 2006
Frequency, duration and intensity of rainfall events have changed.
More and more people are affected by hydromet‐related h d
The past 5 years showed the highest accumulated total cost of damage due to the occurrence of destructive tropical cyclones in the Philippines. As a matter of fact, the trend of the cost of damage is exponential which has taken a considerable toll in the economic outlook of the country.
Note: Damage cost not normalized
Damaging Storms/Typhoons and Extreme Rainfall
PANAON ISLAND FLASHFLOOD
Dec 2003
ORMOC FLASHFLOOD November 1991
INFANTA & AURORA FLASHFLOOD
Dec 2004
Aug 2004 floods in Pangasinan & Pampanga and flash floods in Infanta & Quezon provinces
Mosaic of Dingalantown and vicinity showing flood/ flashflood hazard analysis. (Data: 2005 aerial photographs, courtesy of ICDAI) Source: Cruz, et al, 2005
29 Nov 2006 flood/flashflood in Albay province
Dead Affected population
Total Damage
734 2.0M P5.5B
Jun 2008 flood/flash flood in the Iloilo province
26 Sep 2009 flooding in Metro Manila & surrounding provinces
Bankoff (2003) described that Metro Manila’s vulnerability to flooding has evolved as a result of the degree of interplay between climate, topography, resource use, and culture over time.
Causes of flooding in Metro Manila and surrounding areas on 26 September 2009 – due to passage of TS Ketsana
Insufficient carrying capacities
Intense rainfall
High/dense population
High rate of urbanization
Deforestation
Informal settlers
Unabated/rampant development
Trends & impacts of flooding in Metro Manila
TC events: 55 (51.4%) Non-TC events: 52 (48.6%)
Source: HMD, PAGASA
Max 1-hr for TC events: 75.1 mmMax 1-hr for Non-TC events: 97 mm
Metro Manila’s regional GDP in 2008 was 468 billion PHP (National Statistical Coordination Board). Damage costs range from 3% of GDP (SQ-EX-10) to 24% (A1FI-EX-100).
Climate change costs represent 1% (1-in-10 flood), 6% (1-in-30 flood) & 10% (1-in-100 flood) of GDP.
Source: Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report, 2010, ADB, JICA, WB
Without CC
With CC
09 October 2009 floods in Pangasinan due to the spill of San Roque dam
Sep - Oct 2011 floods in Central Luzon (Typhoons Pedring & Quiel)
Flash flood in Cagayan de Oro & Iligan cities on 16 Dec 2011 due to passage of TS Washi
BOSTON, DAVAO ORIENTAL
CATEEL, DAVAO ORIENTAL
BAGANGA, DAVAO ORIENTAL
COMVAL PROVINCE
Normal RR for
August 504.2 mm
Percent
Normal
Total August 1‐8 1199.1 mm 237.8 %
6 August 323.4 mm 64.1 %
7 August 391.7 mm 77.6 %
8 August 292.6 mm 58.03%
Total 2day RR
(Aug 6‐7) 741.8 mm 141.8%
Total 3day RR
(Aug 6‐8) 1007.4 mm 199.8%Duration of continuous rainfall from July 16 to date = 24 days`
Southwest Monsoon August 2012
Damage Airport
www.buzzfeed.com
Why there is a need for Adaptation
Based on these major points Urgency ‐ climate change is occurring now
Climate variability and change is currently a threat to development
We know enough about the nature of climate change to take sensible decisions about adaptation now
A climate risk & development perspective approach
Can we assess the costs of adaptation?
What are the critical next steps?
National Framework Strategy on Climate Change• Government policy and country’s roadmap towards climate change mitigation and adaptation, with emphasis on disaster risk reduction (DRR)
• Basis for the program on climate change planning, research and development, extension, and monitoring of activities on climate change
SOCIETY ENVIRONMENT
ECONOMY
SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENTGoal: To build the adaptive capacity of communities and increase the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change, and optimize mitigation opportunities towards sustainable development.
VISION:A climate risk‐resilient Philippines with healthy, safe, prosperous and self‐reliant communities, and thriving and productive
ecosystems
CLIMATE CHANGE• Increasing temperatures• Changing rainfall patterns• Sea level rise• Extreme weather events
IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITY
• Ecosystems (River Basins, Coastal & Marine, Biodiversity)
• Food security• Water resources• Human health• Infrastructure• Energy• Human society
ADAPTATION• Enhanced Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessments• Integrated Ecosystem‐Based Management• Climate‐Responsive Agriculture
• Water Governance &Management• Climate‐Responsive Health Sector• Disaster Risk Reduction &Management• Climate‐proofing of Infrastructure
MITIGATION• Energy Efficiency & Conservation• Renewable Energy• Environmentally‐Sustainable
Transport• Sustainable Infrastructure• National REDD+ Strategy• Waste Management
CLIMATE PROCESS DRIVERS
• Energy• Transport• Land Use Change & Forestry• Agriculture • Waste
Capacity Development
Knowledge Management
Research and DevelopmentTechnology Transfer
Financing Policy, Planning andMainstreaming
CROSS‐CUTTING STRATEGIES
National Framework Strategy on Climate Change
Multi‐stakeholderPartnerships
MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION
IEC andAdvocacy
GenderMainstreaming
Valuation
NDRRM FRAMEWORK
RISK FACTORS
HazardsExposures
VulnerabilitiesCapacities
MainstreamingDRR and CCA in
Planning andImplementation
Prevention & Mitigation Preparedness Rehabilitation & Recovery Response
Safer, adaptive and resilient Filipino
communities toward sustainable
development
The National DRRM Framework is a conceptual paradigm on how the “whole of society” can work towards‘Safer, adaptive and disaster‐resilient Filipino communities towards sustainable development’It ensures DRRM process to be comprehensive and integrated; all‐hazards coverage; involve all sectors; andhave maximum impact on communities. It emphasizes that resources invested in disaster prevention,mitigation, preparedness and climate change adaptation will be more effective towards attaining the abovestated vision
How do we
localize climate action?
Establish the Ecotowns in Key
Biodiversity Areas (sensitive forest, coastal and marine ecosystems, small islands, food baskets)
Key DirectionsLGUs located within Ecotowns to
be areas of priorities for green growth investment and payment for ecological services (PES)
Comprehensive National Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment & Climate Risk Analysis
The whole National Budget as Climate Change Adaptation Budget
National Natural Resource Accounting (Total Economic Valuation)
CCT+CCA with protection of natural resources as the condition
Climate Financing for Adaptation
Source:Climate Change Commission
Enhancement of Carbon Stocks
Water SecurityFood Security
Enhancement of Genetic Resources
Renewable Energy from:
Hydro
Solar
& Wind
Green Industries and Eco‐tourism
Hydro Meteorological station as Early Warning System
Source: Climate Change Commission
Enabling Climate Change Resilient Communities and Local Economy:Ecotown Framework (Ecosystem Based Management)
NCCAP anchors on the implementation of the plan at the local level on building ecologically sound stable and economically resilient towns or eco‐towns. An eco‐town is a planning unit composed of municipalities or a group of municipalities located within and around boundaries of critical key biodiversity areas, which are at high risk to climate change. Eco towns will be built around protected areas and key biodiversity areas, using ecosystem based approach that will scale up best practice
Local Climate Change Action Plan
LGUs as frontlineagencies Barangays to be directly
involved with LGUs in prioritizing CCA and DRR issues
CCA and DRR to become a
regular function of municipal and city LGUs
Source:Climate Change Commission
Major CC/DRR/M Strategies in the 2011‐2016 PDP
Strengthening institutional capacities of national and local governments for CCA and DRR
Improving adaptive capacities of communities to the impact of climate change
Building resilience of the natural ecosystems
Promotion of environment friendly technologies for industry and transportation sectors
Promotion of clean and renewable energy
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in the 2011‐2016 Public Investment Program
SectorCost
(US$ billion)
# of
Projects
%
ShareTypology of activities
Agriculture & Agrarian Reform
0.06 25 <1
• formulation/enhancement of AFM plans• promotion of technologies for CC inagriculture
• capacity building including IEC on CC
ENR 1.32 21 17.75
• formulation/enhancement of ENR framework plan;
• integration of CC technologies in watershed management/forestry, biodiversity conservation, solid waste management, andsewerage system activities; and
• capacity building including IEC on CC
CCA and DRR/M (including flood control)
3.30 91 45
• formulation/enhancement of local land use plans;
• installation of early warning system, forecasting/modeling device, hydro‐meteorological equipment; and
• capacity building including IEC• construction of dams
Energy and Power 2.74 32 37 • promotion of Renewable Energy
Total 7.42 169 100
Lessons Learned after Super Typhoon Haiyan
Evacuation worked well where it took place – Evacuation away from low‐lying coastalareas saved lives but Typhoon Hiayan/Yolanda also showed the need for strong, fortifiedcommunity shelters to which people could evacuate.
(As documented http://www.unisdr.org/archive/35524).
Need to improve risk communication to promote better understanding of this threat.
Communications are a weak link – need to invest in alternative failsafe systems (e.g. radio, with links to local authorities in primary cities and towns) and backup power systems.
Public not planning for worst case scenarios – more attention need on scenario planning for extreme scenarios
Worst case scenarios will overwhelm local capacities – need mutual aid plans to guide external assistance through twinning relationships and other partnerships
Weak housing stock contributed to debris and damage – need safer designs that feature a fortified core (i.e. safe room) for housing and shelters. Designs need to be fit‐for‐purpose in terms of providing and protecting shelter.
There are still other worse case scenarios out there – Typhoon Haiyan / Yolanda will likely serve as a new benchmark for planning, but we need to do a better job of risk identification and scenario planning.
Not all risks can be eliminated – need to strengthen planning for how to handle residual risk (e.g. through evacuation, insurance, etc.)
Cannot rely on external help in the first days after a catastrophic disaster – families and communities need to do own preparedness planning for this initial period, including maintaining supplies for 5‐7 days in waterproof bags.
Source:Prepare Center.org