Low Head Wind Farm

Ankit Grover

Byoungmo KangCecilia M. Ferreira

Liang Zhao

Feasibility study

Tasmania has a great wind resource known as the roaring forties.

Why investing in a Tasmanian wind farm is a good idea?

Two-thirds of Tasmanian electricity generation comes from Hydro-electricity. There is a need for balance!

Use the Basslink to sell electricity to the mainland when demand is high.

Office of the Economic Regulator, 2014

Site characterization

• Area: 15.7 km2

• 6 km to George Town Airport

• 7.2 km to BoM Weather Station

• 10 km to George Town Substation (220 kV)

• Wind speed: 8.68 m/s ( at hub - 94 m)

• Wind Direction: Southly and Westly

• Terrain slope: 2.3% and 1.2%

• Land usage: Crown land and freehold land (SFM Environmental Solutions Pty Ltd, 2005)(Transend Networks, 2014)

Wind Resource Analysis• Low Head Station

- Speed and Distribution -

• Gradient Height 250 m• Surface Roughness: 30 mm

(Robertson & Gaylord, 1980)

Wind Resource Analysis• Selected Site

- Speed and Distribution -

• Gradient Height 400 m• Surface Roughness: 700 mm

(Robertson & Gaylord, 1980)

Wind Resource Analysis - Speed and Distribution -

  Height [m]

Surface roughness [m]

Gradient

height [m]

Mean wind speed [m/s]

Standard

deviation

BoM Station

10 0.03 250 7.24 3.036

Wind farm site

94 0.70 400 8.68 3.642

• IEC 61400 – 1 : Wind class II

Wind Resource Analysis - Speed and Distribution -

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 340%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Weibull PDF

Actual data

Wind speed [m/s]

Prob

abilit

y [m

/s]

Wind Resource Analysis - Speed and Distribution -

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 90000

5

10

15

20

25

30

Velocity-duration chart

Duration [hours]

Win

d sp

eed

[m/s]

Wind Resource Analysis - Directionality -

Wind Resource Analysis - Correlation with demand -

0:00

2:24

4:48

7:12

9:36

12:00

14:24

16:48

19:12

21:36 0:0

00

200400600800

100012001400

0102030405060

Daily summer profile

TAS Demand Wind farm output

Time of day

Dem

and

[MW

h]

Elec

tricit

y ge

nera

ted

[MW

h]

0:00

2:24

4:48

7:12

9:36

12:00

14:24

16:48

19:12

21:36 0:0

00

200400600800

1000120014001600

0102030405060

Daily winter profile

TAS Demand Wind farm output

Time of day

Dem

and

[MW

h]

Elec

tricit

y ge

nera

ted

[MW

h]

• Demand data from AEMO(Australian Energy Market Operator, 2015)

𝑉𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒 h𝑤𝑒𝑖𝑔 𝑡𝑒𝑑𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒=$ 29.14 / h𝑀𝑊

Wind Turbine Selection

Using this Information we selected the:

VESTAS V112 3.3MW

Vestas Online

Turbine Placement

8D

8D

Spacing: roughly 850m in both directions to reduce array losses.

45 turbines in a 2x2 grid formation.

Energy Output

Energy output Farm output – 743GWh

Ideal output – 1300GWh

Capacity Factorbefore losses – 57%

Losses – 20.6%

Capacity Factorafter losses – 45%

Farm outputafter losses – 590GWh

Construction

Sea Transport

Transportation

Vestas V112 - Macarthur wind farm

Port of Bell Bay is 27km from wind farm site. Deep Waters in the Tamar River. Current crane tonnage – 19tonnes, will need to

be increased. Road Transport

3 temporary roadblocks will need to be set.

3 difficult left turns to maneuver.

Soldiers Settlement road.

Soil Analysis

Light green (Kl) – Soils developed from recent calcareous sands on stabilized dunes and beach ridges , load bearing tests needed.

Reconnaissance Soil Map Series of Tasmania For Beaconsfield – George Town

Closest sub station is the George Town Sub Station.

Proposed 10km of 110kV HVAC transmission lines.

Use same transmission corridor as the Basslink overhead lines.

Grid Connection

Proximity to load centers, Bell Bay Aluminum Smelter

Basslink opportunities

Grid Connection

Office of the Economic Regulator, 2014

Avian Fauna

Land clearance

Waste management

Environmental impact

Avian Fauna

https://thewindenergysolution.wordpress.com/4-concessionrefutation/

According to Dr. Cindy Hall number of collisions decreasing in Tasmania

Most common : Brown Thornbill and Silver Gull

Avian Fauna

Site is composed with free hold land and crown land owned by the government. (The Crown)

Can be bought or Leased

Small amount of Land clearance required

Land

(SFM Environmental Solutions Pty Ltd, 2005)

Possible waste produced from construction

No harmful or hazardous waste during operation

Cleanest energy source

Disposal of wind turbine after lifespan

Recycle in thermal and mechanical uses

Waste management

http://www.holcim.com/en/referenceprojects/disused-rotor-blades-can-now-be-utilized-in-cement-production.html

Visual Impact

Noise Impact

Local and government opinions

Social Impact

Social Impact

Located near coastline – Possible destructive coastal view

Distance from housings are far enough

No SHADOW FLICKER (Range of 550m)

Wind turbines are recognized as symbol of renewable energy

Visual Impact

Wind farm noise – the biggest problem for local residents

Noise level of wind farm 103 dB

Allowed noise level 35 dB at housing

Presence of trees and direction of wind blowing away from the housing

Noise Impact

Tasmanian government-the premier Will Hodgman "Tasmania as a renewable energy state has tremendous capacity, I believe, into the future”

Previous wind farms in TAS were supported by local communities

Employment and local business development

Possible opposition group (NIMBY)

Opinions

Financial ModelingElectricity

Revenue in

Discounted

O&M cost per year

Annual interest

Total Discounted Total

Initial cost

Tax

Capital cost

Annual required revenue

×Electricityproduced × Discount

factor

× Tax rate

DF

×Capacity Cash

𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑖+ (Initial NPV equal to the

negative initial cost)

  High revenue scenario

Medium revenue scenario

Low revenue scenario

Capital costs (million AU$/MV)

1.7 2.35 2.53

Life time (years)

20 20 20

Discount rate 10% 10% 10%Inflation rate 0.024 0.024 0.024Construction time (years)

1 1 2

Total O&M per year ($/MW)

10297682.74 

10297682.74 

10297682.74 

Electricity price (AU$/MWh)

110.00 90.00 39.056(in 2017)

Capacity factor 45.38% 45.38% 45.38%O&M Cost $10297682.74 $10297682.74

 $10297682.74 

Tax rate 0.03 0.03 0.03 

NPV of project $308002166.50 $61451272.20 -$97643477.50IRR 25.34% 12.95% 7.58%LCE(AU$/MWh) 60.81288773 77.0976962 81.60733547

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

-300000000

-200000000

-100000000

0

100000000

200000000

300000000

400000000

High Revenue Scenario

NPV in high revenue scenario Cashflow in high revenue scenario

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

-700000000

-600000000

-500000000

-400000000

-300000000

-200000000

-100000000

0

100000000

Low Revenue Scenario

Cashflow in low revenue scenario" NPV in low revenue scenario

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

-800000000-700000000-600000000-500000000-400000000-300000000-200000000-100000000

0100000000200000000

Medium Revenue Scenario

Cashflow in medium revenue scenarioNPV in medium revenue scenario

Conclusion

Main advantages: Strong wind resource Good correlation with demand and possibility to sell to Victorian

market Proximity to a port, a substation as well as to a load center Existence of a road connecting the site

What is necessary to move forward with the project: Do wind measurements at the site to substitute the use of

projected data Do soil and geography analysis to choose the foundation type Do further fauna assessments (as this is a site specific issue) Study the effect of blade glint on road users Check the availability of the Crown Land and if the other

landlords will be willing to lease their land

Conclusion

The construction of a 148.5 MW wind farm will be able to generate 590 [GWh] per year.However, It will be necessary to do a Power Purchase Agreement to make the project financially viable. Therefore it became an interesting investment with:

Medium revenue ($90/MWh) NPV: $ 61,451,272.20 IRR: 12.95% SPB: 12 years

High revenue ($110/MWh) NPV: $ 308,002,166.50 IRR: 25.34% SPB: 7 years

The Low Head Wind Farm is the right Choice!

References

Australian Energy Market Operator. (2015). Aggregated Price and Demand Data Files. Retrieved April 25, 2015, from http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Data/Price-and-Demand/Aggregated-Price-and-Demand-Data-Files

Economic Regulator. (2014, February). Energy in Tasmania - Performance Report 2012-13. Retrieved April 30, 2015, from http://www.economicregulator.tas.gov.au/domino/otter.nsf/LookupFiles/Energy_in_Tasmania_Performance_Report_2012-13_FINAL_140212.pdf/$file/ Energy_in_Tasmania_Performance_Report_2012-13_FINAL_140212.pdf

Robertson, L. E., & Gaylord, E. H. (1980). Section 3.3.2 - Properties of the Mean Wind. In Tall building: criteria and loading (pp. 161 - 162). New York: American Society of Civil Engineers.

SFM Environmental Solutions Pty Ltd. (2005, October). George Town Coastal Management Plan. Retrieved April 7, 2015, from http://georgetown.tas.gov.au/coastal-reserve-management-lan?fd=pP%25F8%25F0%252F%25B5%25E7%25D D%25A3%25EDJ%2588%25B4r%25FC%25F6d%25DC%25CEO%252FI%253A%253FN5D%25CD%25F3%252FMA26%253F

Transend Networks. (2014, June 30). Annual Planning Report: 2014. Retrieved April 1, 2015, from http://www.tasnetworks.com.au/TasNetworks/media/pdf/Transend-Annual-Planning-Report-2014.pdf

Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator. (2014). Energy in Tasmania - Performance Report 2012/13. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment. RECONNAISSANCE SOIL MAP SERIES OF TASMANIA BEACONSFIELD-GEORGE TOWN.

Appendix 1 - OLS of George Town Airport -

Appendix 2

In order to translate the wind measurements from the BoM station to hub height at the proposed wind farm site, firstly, it is necessary to calculate the free stream speed,, at the BoM station from its measured wind velocity, . Using the logarithmic law, this can be done with the following equation:

As it is reasonable to assume that the free stream speed is the same in both sites, it is possible to scale down the wind speed from gradient to hub height at the wind farm site, , using again the logarithmic law:

- Scaling Wind Speeds -

Appendix 3

The Weibull distribution is used to approximate the distribution of wind speeds for a certain location. It uses two parameters: k, called shape factor, and c, called scale factor. Which can be calculated using the mean wind speed, , and the standard deviation, σ, of a dataset with the following equations:

With this parameters, it is possible to calculate the Weibull Probability Density Function (PDF) which is the relative likelihood in [m/s] of having wind at speeds of U [m/s]:

And the Weibull Cumulative Distribution Fuction (CDF) which is the probability of having wind speeds below U [m/s]:

Therefore, it is possible to calculate the probability of finding wind speed within a range of velocities by:

This can be used to calculate the number of hours per year that the wind blows within that range of speeds and the energy output. (Manwell, McGowan, & Rogers, 2004)

- Weilbul Distribution -

Appendix 4 - Transport Route -

Appendix 5 - Wind Turbine Selection -

Our site is characterized as a class IIa (IEC standards)

Low to medium turbulence due to trees and small hills

Average wind speed of 8.68m/s

Appendix 6 - Losses -

Losses – Array Losses – 13% (Katics Model) Electrical Efficiency Losses – 4% (Informed assumption) Soiling losses – 2% (informed assumption) Machine downtime losses – 2% (informed assumption) Other losses – 1%, e.g wind direction hysteresis

(informed assumption) Total loss percentage – 20.6%

Appendix 7

Volume weighted price

- Volume weighted price -

Where: – Electricity produced during the ith 30min

interval – Electricity price during the ith 30min interval – Total Electricity produced during the year

Appendix 8 - Demand -

• Tasmania • Victoria

(Economic Regulator, 2014)

Appendix 9 - Distance from turbine to road -

250 m

Appendix 10

Initial cost: The O&M cost could calculate by:= ×C × 8760(NOTE, C is the capacity factor.) O&M cost per year = Calculation of:PV=A, PV= the initial cost; A is annual required revenue A= PV/ →=

- Financial Modeling -

Discount Factor :(

= The discounted total (Initial NPV equal to the negative initial cost) Levelised cost of electricity is calculated by:LCOE= +

• BoM Weather Station: Low Head Lighthouse

• Datasets: Hourly wind data from 6 June 2000 to 16

February 2011

And half-hourly wind measurements from 1 January 2011 to 4 July 2012.

Appendix 11 - Wind data -