United Nations Development Programme, IndiaLasting Solutions for Development Challenges

Chapter 2

Climate ChangeIs India a Solution to the Problemor a Problem to the Solution?

By :Diya, Nakhastra, Shyne(UD) Subhas (EP)

UN's global development network to help people build a better life .

UNDP advocates for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the concept of human development and the need to empower women.

Its series of global, regional and country-focused Human Development Reports are a powerful advocacy tool with a focus on people-centered, inclusive, equitable and sustainable growth.

What is UNDP ?

Is India a Solution to the Problem or a Problem to the Solution? Action on climate change between the developed and developing countries has been sharply polarized for a long-time. This is because India forcefully,and rightfully, made development and poverty eradication key issues within the climate change negotiation.

There are many myths being made of India’s stands in the context of climate change negotiation and discussions. Author has given facts & figures against each myth and tried to dispel them.

About the Author : Prodipto Ghosh Prodipto Ghosh PHD in Economics specialising in Climate Change Modelling from Pittsburgh University USA. Bachelors of Technology in Chemical Engineering from IIT Delhi.

He is Distinguished Fellow at The Energy & Resources Institute (TERI) Member of the Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change. Member of the National Expert Committee on Climate Change, Member of the National Security Advisory Board, and Scientific Consultant in the Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser to the Govt. of India.

In this article he draws a line between facts and fictions by demystifying six myths built around India’s stands on climate change. His analysis brings out that a country can have both growth and less carbon emissions.

India’s Development Challenges : India is one of the fastest economies of the world.

India stands at 128th position in the World Human Development Index. No country in history has improved its level of human development without corresponding increase in per capita use of energy.

Myth 1: India has done nothing to promote clean energy and energy conservation Fact: Over several decades India has pursued policies and publicly funded programs focused on energy conservation and deployment of renewable energy technologies. This has been backed by legislation, regulation and tariffs arrangements. Some of these are:

Reforming Energy Markets New and Renewable Energy Policy, 2005 Rural Electrification Policy, 2006 Biodiesel Purchase Policy Ethanol Blending of Gasoline Energy Conservation Act, 2001 Energy Conservation Building Code, 2006Bachat Lamp Yojana (Efficient Lamps Program)50,000 MW Hydroelectric Initiative, 2003 etc.

Myth 2: India remains a profligate user of energyFact: In integrated steel plants the energy consumption has declined by more than 22% during 1990-2005. In cement Industries, the annual declinein average specific energy consumption is 7.5 percent during 1996-2006. The fertilizer sector has witnessed on average 26% and 25% improvements in specific energy consumption in ammonia and urea plants, respectively, during 1988-2003. The trend is similar in other major energy using sectors like aluminum, paper, power plants and petroleum refining.

Since mid-1980s, India’s energy intensity (that is energy consumed per unit of GDP) has been declining steadily.

Myth 2: India remains a profligate user of energyFact:

The CO2 intensity data for India is better than that of Germany and same as that of Japan that is universally cited as the world’s most energy efficient economy.

Indian policymakers assert that the IEA, in fact, overestimates India’s energy intensity, by imputing to Indian coal the calorific value typical of European coals, while the Indian coal calorific values are significantly lower due to much higher ash content.

Myth 3India is not concerned over its vulnerability to climate change

ISSUE: India is highly vulnerable to climate related events ex. FLOODS, DROUGHTS, CYCLONES.

STEPS: Public funded programs to address the direct impact impacts and prevention the climatic risks.

OBJECTIVES: Reduction of vulnerability to climatic risks by major anti poverty and rural development programs.

Myth 3

ANNUAL FEDERAL GOVT EXPENDITURE TO ADDRESS CLIMATE VARIABILITY: At present Govt. of India spends not less than 12% of its annual budget or 2.63% of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) on these programs.

India is not concerned over its vulnerability to climate change

Myth 4

FACT:• Less CO₂ emission from food sectors • Good recycling of municipal wastes• with concern about fuel efficiency, there is a rapid increase in vehicles powered by natural gas.

The National Geographic’s Greendex developed and developingcountries for environmental sustainability has ranked India as the world’s most environmentally sustainable society in May 2009.

India is an environmentally unsustainable economy

Myth 5 - India’s GHG emissions will grow uncontrollably in the future

Facts presented by the Author Present GDP growth rate of 8% /annum at 3.7% increase in energy use.

Till 2030-31, the GDP growth will remain in the range of 8.5-9%/annum assuming that last decade’s observed annual energy efficiency increase of 1.5% and overall efficiency of resource use at 3%/annum continues.

The Indian per capita CO2 emissions grow only modestly from 1 tonne per capita in 2004-05 to 2.77 tonnes per capita in 2030-31. The energy intensity of the GDP will continue

to decline: from 0.11 kgoe/US$ GDP in 2003-04 to 0.04 kgoe/US$ GDP in 2030-31

Myth 5 - India’s GHG emissions will grow uncontrollably in the future

Related Facts India's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

rose by 58% between 1994 and 2007 (as per Greenhouse gas Inventory of 2007 emissions- MOEF).

India is now the world's fifth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, ranking behind China, the United States, the European Union, and Russia.

From 1994 to 2007, India reduced the emissions intensity of its economy by 30%. India has announced plans to reduce intensity by further 20-25% between 2005 and 2020.

Myth 6 - What is the fuss all about? Reducing GHG emissionspays for itself or, at best, is low cost

Facts presented by the Author CO2 emissions mitigation through capital investments in all relevant energy sectors, the undiscounted incremental investment costs are $ 800 billion and the undiscounted incremental energy system costs are in excess of $ 1 trillion for CO2 reduction of 30 %

The shifting of resources towards CO2 mitigation from other physical and social infrastructure and production sectors would definitely lead to a reduction in GDP growth.

Myth 6 - What is the fuss all about? Reducing GHG emissionspays for itself or, at best, is low cost ...contd..

Facts presented by the Author On a max. carbon tax of $ 80/tonne CO2

6.1% CO2 reduction (revenue positive case)GDP losses exceeding $ 19 trillion

5.2 %CO2 reduction (revenue neutral case)GDP losses exceeding $ 17 trillion

The Way Forward

GHG Mitigation Significant Mitigation Actions - will lead

to diversion from development and poverty eradication efforts .

Development challenges for key developing countries are typical of other developing countries.

Sector Targets Externally imposed sector targets are an

inefficient and impractical mean of GHG mitigation.

UNFCCC speaks only of promotion and cooperation in development, application and diffusion of technologies, practices and process for mitigation of GHG in relevant sectors.

The Way ForwardNationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions: The BAP requires developing countries to formulate and implement Nationally

Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) supported and enabled by finance, technology and capacity building that are ‘monitorable, verifiable and reportable (MRV)’.

Financing In India’s view financial support for NAMAs of developing countries is not ‘aid’

but a discharge of responsibility by developed countries.

Technology In India’s view, technology is the key to both mitigating and adapting to climate

change. It comprises of three elements:-a global collaborative effort on research and development (R&D)-existing and new clean technologies must be made available to developing countries-a network of regional technology innovation centres should be set up in developing countries to catalyze collaborative R&D

The Way Forward

Adaptation India’s experience has been that the

resource and technology needs for adaptation are of the same order as for mitigation.

Sustainable Production and Consumption High per capita GHG emissions in

developed countries are the inevitable outcome of unsustainable lifestyles comprising unsustainable patterns of production and consumption.

Conclusion

India was not a part of the climate problem, is not till now and will not be soin future.

India’s (and for that matter all developing countries) concerns abouteconomic growth and poverty eradication are legitimate and must be fully respected in any global climate regime, as indeed stated unequivocally in the UNFCCC and the Bali Action Plan.

The cause of climate change is the unsustainable emission of developedcountries. They have to take leadership to drastically reduce their emissions andthis will involve modification of their lifestyles but no one is suggesting that theybecome poor.

The proposals made by India (and other developing countries) in respect ofthe future climate regime are constructive and must be given serious considerationin any discussions on global climate action.