Preparing for the Coming 5G Tsunamilogtel-courses.com/dl/Roger_Lanctot.pdf · •Augmented/virtual reality •Contextualized marketing ... to 21% over forecast •Ultrasonic share

January 16, 2019 Copyright© Strategy Analytics, Inc. 1

Preparing for the Coming 5G Tsunami

Roger C. Lanctot

Director, Connected Mobility

MAXIMIZING COVERAGE, CAPACITY, AND PERCEIVED USER EXPERIENCE

• Massive MIMO (Multiple Input/Multiple Output) and beamforming: Massive MIMO uses many signals in an array to increase the capacity of a network. Beamforming is a technique to have a specific signal follow a device as it moves with a dedicated connection– like a beacon rather than a wide signal.

• Carrier aggregation is used to combine spectrum across different bands (or in-band to combine carriers) to deliver more bandwidth to each connection and increase data traffic capacity; used already in 4G.

• Cell edge performance: how well a connection is maintained and speed of throughput at the edge of a cell (farthest from the cell tower/antenna) is important for user perception of the quality of the network; 4G Advanced Pro and 5G improve this.

• Number of connections handled per cell is important as more devices are connected to networks (density of connections) – 5G will be able to handle this increase in density

January 16, 2019 2

Source: SK Telecom

5G Improves Network Performance

Copyright© 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc.

5G COMMERCIAL LAUNCHES START TO RAMP UP IN 2019, 2020

• Commercial 5G networks will launch in 15 markets globally at some level in 2019.

• Market leaders in terms of 5G coverage and rollout will be China, Korea, Japan and USA.

• User-linked 5G connections will grow from 6 million in 2019 to 590 million in 2023.

• Initial 2018/19 deployments will be supported by modems and FWA.

• 5G smartphone shipments will outpace modems in the second half of 2019

January 16, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 3

WHY 5G MATTERS

• Lower latency communications

• Device to device connections

• Greater reliability

• Network slicing

• Layered, ubiquitous connectivity

• True IoT – network of everything

October 2015 Strategy Analytics, Inc 4

• New vehicle architecture(s)

• New business models

• New development strategy

• New organizational structure

• New priorities – privacy, security, autonomy

• Changing vehicle ownership and usage

Auto industry to wireless industry:

You’ve got our attention!

ADVANTAGES OF 5G

• Lower cost

• Greater range

• Lower latency

• Interoperability with LTE

• Infrastructure – introduction of microcells

5

THE BIG PICTURE

6

WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?

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• People aren’t buying enough electric cars – they’re expensive

• Autonomous driving is a feature – people won’t own autonomous cars

• Regulators, legislators and cities have spoken: They want electric and autonomous and SHARED transportation

• The true financial implications of privacy regulations and cybersecurity vulnerability are not yet known – may be determined by courts

NEW CONNECTIVITY SOLUTIONS ON THE WAY

• Reprovisionable SIM

• Multiple-carrier platform

• Dual SIM Dual Access (DSDA)

• Add car to existing wireless plan

• Global connectivity platform

• Zero-rating of particular data types

• Lifetime subscription

8

CELLULAR-BASED V2V ARRIVES WITH C-V2X

March 2015 Strategy Analytics, Inc. 9

CORE 5G-ENABLED APPLICATIONS

• Autonomous driving

• Remote control

• Platooning

• Collision avoidance

• Inter-vehicle communications (V2V)

• Vehicle to infrastructure communications (V2I)

• Vehicle to pedestrian communications (V2P)

• Over-the-air updates

Regulators are requiring autonomous vehicles be equipped with remote control – it is likely that only 5G can delivery the necessary low latency for this application.


NEW VALUE PROPOSITIONS

• Ubiquitous connectivity

• Inter-vehicle communication

• Data collection, aggregation, interpretation, sharing

• Monetization of data – data brokering

• Artificial intelligence

• Machine learning

• Neural networks

• Augmented/virtual reality

• Contextualized marketing

• OTA updates

• Cloud navigation – support for autonomous driving

• Enhanced cybersecurity


January 16, 2019 Strategy Analytics, Inc 12

CYBERSECURITY – DO WE UNDERSTAND THE CHALLENGE?

FCA class action suit = $2,000 in exposure/car

Hacking cars via enterprise and enterprise via cars

Automotive cybersecurity may soon be required by law

Cars will never be certifiably secure

EMBEDDED CONNECTIONS ARE FOR CUSTOMER RETENTION

13

“One percent of customer retention is worth $700M.”

- Alicia Boler Davis Executive Vice President Global Manufacturing,

Manufacturing Engineering and Labor Relations at General

MotorsIt is 5-7x more

expensive to acquire than it is to retain a

customer.

- Capgemini analyst

EMBEDDED TELEMATICS

OEM REGIONAL SHIPMENT VIEW

January 16, 2019 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service 14

Telematics Shipments: 31 Million units in 2017 to 84 Million units in 2025

• North America: eCall/Telematics highly dependent on car maker strategies

• Europe: eCall telematics highly dependent on regulatory activity and selected OEMs

• Japan: Navigation is still dominant, Telematics roll-out is lead by Toyota

• China: Will be the #1 region for embedded Telematics shipments by 2021 (North America #2)

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Japan China India

Russia Brazil Rest Of the World

OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS

CELLULAR MODEM SHIPMENTS - GLOBAL


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2.5G 3G 4G/LTE 5G

Telematics Forecast 2017 vs. 2025 (31 Mil. units 84 Mil. units)

• 2.5G Network: 3.5 Mil units in 2017 to 0K units from 2020

• 3G Network: 18.8 Mil in 2017 units to 3.8 Mil units in 2025

• 4G/LTE Network: 9.6 Million units in 2017 to 67 Mil units in 2025

• 5G Network: 12.5 Million units in 2025

OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS

ACTIVE VEHICLE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY REGION


Leading Regions:

• North America: Market Driver - Single Market

• Europe: Market Driver – eCall

• China: Market Driver –Biggest Global Car market

Global Active Subscriptions Will Exceed 250 Million by 2022

Telematics 1.0

Telematics 2.0

OEM INFOTAINMENT:

REGIONAL SHIPMENT REVENUES


Tier 1 Revenue Growth: 2017 vs. 2025: +17.7% ($33.5 Bil. to $41.8 Bil.)

• China +42.6%: From $7.5 Billion in 2017 $10.8 Billion in 2025 (CAGR 4.5%)

• North America +4.4%: From $7.7 Billion in 2017 $8.1 Billion in 2025 (CAGR 0.5%)

• Europe +7.6%: From $10.1 Billion in 2017 $10.9 Billion in 2025 (CAGR 0.9%)

• Japan -2.1%: From $3.28 Billion in 2017 $3.21 Billion in 2025 (CAGR -0.3%)

• India: +75%: From $795 Million in 2017 to $1.4 Billion in 2025 (CAGR 7.3%)

• Brazil: +35.8%: From $1.1Billion in 2017 to $1.4 Billion in 2025 (CAGR 3.9%)

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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Re

ve

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es

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il U

S$

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North America Europe South Korea

Japan China India

Russia Brazil Rest Of the World

CELLULAR BECOMES MISSION CRITICAL


Example is Safety - There is increasing reliance on:

• LIDAR, RADAR

• Cameras

• Contextual awareness with the objective of collision avoidance

…most of these systems have

COMPLEX software…

TOTAL ADAS OVER $56B BY 2025

• Best combination of growth/size is in Distance Warning

• AEB is the key feature in that category

• Other emerging systems (e.g. Camera Mirror Replacement) to remain comparatively small

Sep 2018 Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2018 19

SENSOR TRENDS

• Ultrasonic • Not going away…yet?

• Longer range, higher resolution

• LiDAR• Massive M&A / investment activity

• Still many different technology paths being pursued

• Danger of hype?

• RADAR• Emergence of CMOS-based sensors

• Higher-resolutions / frequencies

• Camera• Move to higher resolutions – 8 MP in the

pipeline for forward-looking cameras

• More use of machine vision technology in areas where not commonly applied – e.g. parking / surround view systems

• Growing interest in centralized architectures and processing of “raw” data• But conventional distributed systems will

remain mainstream well into the 2020s


We still expect ALL of camera / LiDAR / RADAR to prosper and growThere will be no sensor “Winner”

OVERALL SENSOR DEMAND (B$)


• Room for all sensor types to grow

• RADAR and camera see shares of total market to decline slowly from 2019

• LiDAR to grow share from 3% to 21% over forecast

• Ultrasonic share also to fall in dollar terms

• Note: camera costs exclude processing

CAMERA GROWTH ANALYSIS


• Over 2 cameras per vehicle by 2024

• High-end luxury sedan will see ~10 cameras

• Percentage of cameras used in front windshield application is rising

• Fastest growth is in internal cameras

Note: Stereo camera counted as 2x cameras. Trifocal camera counted as 3x cameras

RADAR GROWTH ANALYSIS


• Average of 1.5 RADAR sensors per vehicle in 2025• Compares with 2.3 for cameras

• E- and F-Segment sedans to see highest fitment

• Fastest growth in medium-range RADARs

LIDAR GROWTH ANALYSIS

• Market currently dominated by “Simple” LiDARs for AEB

• Rapid growth expected in next-gen devices for automated driving

• Market still emerging – many technologies not mature


GEN 2.0 - TELEMATICS ARCHITECTURE OVERVIEW - UPDATE


Cloud

IoT

OTA

OEMs

Telematics ECU

Cloud

Smart Antenna

Headunit/

Cockpit Domain

Controller

Telematics ECUCockpit

Domain Controller

Smart Antenna

Body

Chassis

ADASEthernet

Powertrain

ADASECU

PowertrainECU

Body ECU

Chassis ECU

Gen 2.0

AUTOMOTIVE DOMAIN ARCHITECTURE UPDATE

26

Gateway ECU

TCU

Cockpit Domain

Controller

Center Display ECU

Instrument Cluster Display

HUD (Optional)

Safety Domain

Controller

Body Domain

Controller

Powertrain Domain

Controller

Powertrain ECU 1

Powertrain ECU 2

Body ECU 1

Body ECU 2

Safety ECU 1

Safety ECU 2

Chassis Domain

Controller

Chassis ECU 1

Chassis ECU 2

Gateway ECU + Domain Controllers

January 16, 2019 Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service

COCKPIT DOMAIN CONTROLLER ECU

HIGH-LEVEL VIEW


• Auto industry moving toward consolidation of ECUs• Some of the first ECUs to be consolidated are the instrument cluster and the headunit• Could be used drive multiple displays

Instrument Cluster Display

Center Information

Display

HUD (Optional)

Cockpit Domain

Controller

COCKPIT DOMAIN CONTROLLER ECU

FEATURES

Cockpit Domain Controllers typically have the following features (features ultimately depend on OEM requirements):

• Support for multiple displays, as noted

• Radio: AM/FM, digital radio, satellite radio (potentially)

• Device connectivity: USB, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi

• Smartphone projection support (e.g. Android Auto, Apple CarPlay)

• Either hypervisor or multi-core processor to support running multiple OSes

• Camera input (e.g. for backup cameras, surround view cameras, etc.)

• Navigation

• Voice input/digital assistants

• ADAS alerts (e.g. those displayed on an instrument cluster)


CONCLUSIONS

• Ubiquitous connectivity is transforming how vehicles are used and owned

• INDIRECT monetization of data will pay for connectivity

• Autonomous vehicles are already here – Cellular V2I is the essential application to open up autonomy in urban areas – will take longer than anyone expects

• Privacy, security concerns must be overcome to enable this new connectivity environment

• Data sharing and inter-vehicle communications are in the process of being resolved today

• 5G collaboration between automotive and wireless industries is a game changer for solving these challenges


January 16, 2019 Copyright© Strategy Analytics, Inc. 30

Automotive Connected Mobility

Documents

Preparing for the Coming 5G Tsunamilogtel-courses.com/dl/Roger_Lanctot.pdf · •Augmented/virtual reality •Contextualized marketing ... to 21% over forecast •Ultrasonic share