PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT ... by Cambridge Environmental Research Consultants (CERC,

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  • Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT

    © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

    Volume 3, Chapter 7: Air quality and odour

    Appendices

    Appendix 7.1 Technical appendix on dispersion modelling

  • Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 7: Appendix 7.1

    Appendix 7.1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

    Appendix 7.1 Technical appendix on dispersion modelling

  • Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 7: Appendix 7.1

    Appendix 7.1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

    Contents

    1. Introduction 1

    2. Meteorological parameters 2

    3. Aircraft emissions 3

    3.1 General procedure 3

    3.2 The dispersion model 4

    3.3 Emissions sources: Aircraft emissions 5 Modes of runway operation 5 Aircraft activity 7 TAAM modelling 12 Reduced engine taxi 12 Main engine emissions: Emission rates 13 Main engine emissions: Future emission factors 17 Main engine emissions: Times in mode 17 Main engine emissions: Thrust settings 21 Auxiliary power units (APU) emissions 22 Brake and tyre wear emissions 24 Aircraft emissions: Spatial disaggregation 24 Aircraft emissions: Runway assignments and temporal variation 29

    3.4 Emissions sources: On-airport, non-aircraft emissions 30 Ground support equipment (GSE) 30 Fire training 32

    4. Approach to modelling emissions from road traffic 33

    4.1 Model domain 33

    4.2 Traffic data 34

    4.3 Calculating road traffic emissions 35

    4.4 Sensitivity test 36

    4.5 Additional features 36

    5. Approach to modelling car park emissions 38

    6. Approach to modelling Lakeside Waste Management Facility emissions 39

    7. Approach to predicting background concentrations 40

    7.2 Background NO2 and NOX concentrations for sensitivity test 42

    7.3 Modelling the background concentration field for traffic emissions 42

  • Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 7: Appendix 7.1

    Appendix 7.1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

    8. Calculation of total NO2 concentrations 46

    8.2 EU limit value compliance 47

    9. Model verification methodology 48

    9.2 NOX and NO2 48

    9.3 PM10 and PM2.5 57

    10. Effect on EU limit value compliance methodology 63

    11. CURED sensitivity test results 65

    11.1 Community area results 65

    11.2 Summary results across the CAQOAA 73

    11.3 Effect on EU limit value compliance results 75

    12. Bibliography 80

    TABLE OF TABLES

    Table 3.1: Movements per year by aircraft type: baseline scenarios 8 Table 3.2: Movements per year by aircraft type: ‘Future Baseline’ scenarios 9 Table 3.3: Movements per year by aircraft type: ‘DCO Project’ scenarios 10 Table 3.4: Aircraft data 14 Table 3.5: Approach and landing roll times by aircraft type 18 Table 3.6: Take-off roll and climb times 20 Table 3.7: Take-off thrusts for future scenarios 22 Table 3.8: APU data 22 Table 6.1: Emission data for the existing facility 39 Table 7.1: Sectors included in the background maps 41 Table 9.1: Sites used in the model verification 48 Table 9.2: Calculated factors for each year 49 Table 9.3: Statistical performance of each of the models 50 Table 11.1: CURED sensitivity test NO2 results at selected representative receptors within each community area 66 Table 11.2: Count of properties by impact descriptor 73 Table 11.3: Count of properties by impact descriptor (CURED sensitivity test) 73 Table 11.4: Count of properties by magnitude of change in concentration 74 Table 11.5: Count of properties by magnitude of change in concentration (CURED sensitivity test)74 Table 11.6: Local air quality receptors informing DCO Project significance 74 Table 11.7: Local air quality receptors informing DCO Project significance (CURED sensitivity test)75 Table 11.8: NO2 annual mean EU limit value compliance in 2022 76 Table 11.9: NO2 annual mean EU limit value compliance in 2027 77 Table 11.10: NO2 annual mean EU limit value compliance in 2030 78

  • Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 7: Appendix 7.1

    Appendix 7.1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

    TABLE OF GRAPHICS

    Graphic 3.1: Approach NOX emissions density plot 25 Graphic 3.2: Landing roll NOX emissions density plot 26 Graphic 3.3: Taxi-in NOX emissions density plot 26 Graphic 3.4: Taxi-out NOX emissions density plot 27 Graphic 3.5: Take-off roll NOX emissions density plot 27 Graphic 3.6: Initial climb NOX emissions density plot 28 Graphic 3.7: APU NOX emissions density plot 28 Graphic 3.8: Brake PM10 emissions density plot 29 Graphic 3.9: Tyre PM10 emissions density plot 29 Graphic 3.10: GSE NOX emissions density plot 31 Graphic 4.1: 1km x 1km receptor cell and corresponding explicitly modelled roads 34 Graphic 7.1: Air quality core assessment area and HHASAM Fully Modelled Area 44 Graphic 7.2: Receptor grid example 45 Graphic 9.1: 2015 Model performance – simple verification approach 50 Graphic 9.2: 2015 Model performance – LOOCV verification approach 51 Graphic 9.3: 2016 Model performance – simple verification approach 51 Graphic 9.4: 2016 model performance – LOOCV verification approach 52 Graphic 9.5: 2017 Model performance – simple verification approach 52 Graphic 9.6: 2017 Model performance – LOOCV verification approach 53 Graphic 9.7: LOOCV primary verification factors 54 Graphic 9.8: Modelled vs measured NO2 at diffusion tube sites close to busy junctions 55 Graphic 9.9: 2015 Modelled vs measured NO2 at diffusion tube sites 56 Graphic 9.10: 2016 Modelled vs measured NO2 at diffusion tube sites 56 Graphic 9.11: 2017 Modelled vs measured NO2 at diffusion tube sites 57 Graphic 9.12: 2015 model performance – PM10 58 Graphic 9.13: 2015 model performance – PM2.5 58 Graphic 9.14: 2016 model performance – PM10 59 Graphic 9.15: 2016 model performance – PM2.5 59 Graphic 9.16: 2017 model performance – PM10 60 Graphic 9.17: 2017 model performance – PM2.5 60

  • Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 7: Appendix 7.1

    Appendix 7.1-1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

    1. INTRODUCTION

    1.1.1 This Appendix describes in detail the methodology applied in the dispersion

    modelling carried out, as discussed in Chapter 7: Air quality and odour. The

    assessment has focussed on the prediction of total pollutant concentrations under

    a variety of scenarios, both with and without the DCO Project, at receptors

    throughout the illustrative ‘Core Air Quality Objective Assessment Area’

    (CAQOAA), a defined 12 x 11km primarily rectangular area centred on the Airport.

    The CAQOAA has been extended slightly to the east to enable the prediction of

    concentrations at all residential properties within the Heston Community Area (to

    inform the Health Impact Assessment work) and is shown in Graphic 7.1.

    Dispersion modelling has been used to predict pollutant concentrations in Windsor

    and Old Windsor, as the tiered assessment using traffic data outside of the

    CAQOAA indicated that impacts in this area may be greater than negligible.

    1.1.2 In order to determine total pollutant concentrations, a number of individual

    contributions have been determined, and combined. The assessment has

    combined the contributions of several sources. The approach taken to determining

    these contributions is set out in detail for each source in this Appendix. The

    sources are:

    1. The emissions from aircraft and all airside sources (including airside vehicles,

    machinery and energy plant), modelled using the ADMS-Airport model

    2. Road traffic emissions modelled using models from the ADMS-Urban suite

    3. Emissions from vehicles using car parks at Heathrow Airport, including

    additional cold start emissions

    4. The contribution of the Lakeside Waste Management Facility in baseline and

    future baseline scenarios

    5. The contribution from all other sources (i.e. background concentrations).

  • Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT: Chapter 7: Appendix 7.1

    Appendix 7.1-2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019

    2. METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS

    2.1.1 Meteorological data from the monitoring station at Heathrow has been purchased

    from the Met Office for use in the assessment. The surface roughness for the area

    has been set in the model at 0.5m, with the minimum Monin-Obukhov length set at

    30m. Given that the meteorological monitoring station is located in the centre of

    the model domain, in a setting similar to much of the study area, these parameters

    have been applied for both the dispersion site and meteorological measurement

    site.

    2.1.2 Wherever possible, the urban canopy flow module has been utilised to better

    represent the effects of buildings on the flow of air throughout the model domain.

    This module cannot be used when modelling certain sources (e.g. jet sources), but

    has been used when modelling road sources, car park sources, the Lakeside

    Waste Management Facility (in the baseline and future baseline scenarios) and

    some airside sources. For baseline and future baseline scenarios, the input data

    used for the urban canopy flow module was the 1km resolution dataset publ