Preethi Report Final

8/3/2019 Preethi Report Final

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A STUDY ON AN ANALYSE OF

SHARE PRICE MOVEMENTS OF ALL PUBLIC ANDPRIVATE SECTOR BANKS IN NATIONAL STOCK

EXCHANGE,COIMBATORE CAPITAL,COIMBATORE.

PROJECT REPORT

Submitted by

DEEPA PREETHI.S

REGISTER NO: 098001107009

in partial fulfilment for the award of the degree

of

MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

HINDUSTHAN COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND

TECHNOLOGY

COIMBATORE-641 032

JUNE 2011


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Bonafide Certificate


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HINDUSTHAN COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND

TECHNOLOGY,

COIMBATORE-641 032

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

PROJECT WORK

JUNE2011

This is to certify that the project entitled

A STUDY ON AN ANALYSE OF SHARE PRICE MOVEMENTS

OF ALL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS IN

NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE

is the bonafide record of work done by

DEEPA PREETHI.S

Register No: 098001107009

of Master of Business Administration during the year 2010-2011.

--------------------- -------------------------------------

Dr.V.SURESH, Dr.V.SURESH, M.Com, MBA., M.Phil, M.Com, MBA., M.Phil,

PGDCA., PGDFM.,SLST, Ph.D. PGDCA., PGDFM.,SLST, Ph.D.

PROJECT GUIDE HEAD OF THE DEPARTMENT

Submitted for Project Viva-Voce examination held on ________ _______

------------------------------- ------------------------------

Internal Examiner External Examiner


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Declaration


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DECLARATION

I affirm that the PROJECT WORK titled A STUDY ON AN ANALYSE OF SHARE PRICE

MOVEMENTS OF ALL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS IN NATIONAL

STOCK EXCHANGE, COIMBATORE being submitted in partial fulfillment for the award of

MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION is the original work carried out by me. It has

not formed the part of any other project work submitted for award of any degree or diploma,

either in this or any other University.

DEEPA PREETHI.S

098001107009I certify that the declaration made above by the candidate is true.

Dr.V.SURESH, M.Com, MBA., M.Phil, PGDCA., PGDFM.,SLST, Ph.D.

HEAD OF THE DEPARTMENT

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES


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Acknowledgment


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ACKNOWLEDGMENT

I first and foremost thank to lord god almighty for giving me grace and knowledge to

complete this training work successfully

My sincere and hearty thanks to Dr.V.DURAISAMY, ME, Ph.D. , The Principal,

Hindustan College of Engineering and technology, Coimbatore, for giving me opportunity to do

the training.

I admit my thanks to Dr.V.SURESH, M.Com, M.Phil, PGDCA.,PGDFM.,SLST,

Ph.D., HOD of Department of Management Studies, Hindustan College of Engineering and

Technology, Coimbatore, for the continuous guidance to accomplish my training work. And I

thank all the other faculty members of the Department of Management Studies for their valuable

support in my internship training work.

I am deeply indebted to R.RAMESH KUMAR,HR MANAGER, COIMBATORE

CAPITAL for giving me the permission and arranged for the need full help and enabling me to

undertake training in their esteemed and reputed organization.

Last but not least I submit my thanks to my Parents, Family members and Friends for

providing me their support on my work.

DEEPA PREETHI.S


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Table of content


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TABLE OF CONTENT

S.NO TITLE PAGE NO

CONTENTS

ABSTRACT V

LIST OF TABLES Vi

LIST OF CHARTS Viii

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 INTRODUCTION OF THE STUDY 1

1.2 INDUSTRY PROFILE 2

1.3 NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE PROFILE 6

1.4 NEED FOR THE STUDY 8

1.5 INTRODUCTION TO THE PROJECT 9

1.6 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 9

1.7 SCOPE OF THE STUDY 10

1.8 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY 10

2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE 11

3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 13

4 ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATIONS 19

5 FINDINGS,SUGGESTIONS AND CONCLUSION 67

BIBLIOGRAPHY I


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ABSTRACT


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ABSTRACT

In the present scenario, investments in developing countries have increased

remarkably. Among the developing countries, India has received considerable capitalinflows in recent years. The liberalization policy of the Government of India has now

started yielding results and the country is poised for a big leap in the industrial and

economic growth. The Economy of the country is mainly based on the development of

the corporate sectors. Funds may be raised through securities market for financing this

corporate growth.

A better understanding of the stock market trend will facilitate allocation of financialresources to the most profitable investment opportunity. The fluctuations of stock returns

are due to several economic and non-economic factors.

The study on fluctuations in stock market helps in understanding the behavior of

market. It helps investors to be aware about deviations in the returns of the stocks and to

make appropriate investment decisions. It also helps the customers to ascertain the risk

and return of the stocks. This will help the investors viz, individuals, FIIs in identifying

the stocks which would yield them higher return and lesser risk.

In the present project, the share prices of all the public sector banks and 15 private

sector banks are analyzed. It helps the investors in making investment decisions.

The conclusions that are to be provided based on the analysis of the data, would be of

immense use to the investors on one hand and the officials of the stock market to

understand the responsiveness of market price of the Banking sector and could be applied

to different situation on the other sectors.


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List of tables


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LIST OF TABLES

TABLE NO PARTICULARS PAGE NO

I Trend Analysis of Allahabad Bank 17II Trend Analysis of Andhra Bank 18

III Trend Analysis of Bank of Baroda 20

IV Trend Analysis of Bank of Maharastra 21

V Trend Analysis of Canara Bank 23

VI Trend Analysis of Central Bank of India 24

VII Trend Analysis of Corporation Bank 26VIII Trend Analysis of Dena Bank 27

IX Trend Analysis of Indian Bank 29

X Trend Analysis of Indian Overseas Bank 30

XI Trend Analysis of Oriental Bank of Commerce 32

XII Trend Analysis of Punjab and Sind Bank 33

XIII Trend Analysis of Punjab National Bank 35

XIV Trend Analysis of Syndicate Bank 36

XV Trend Analysis of UCO Bank 38

XVI Trend Analysis of Union Bank 39

XVII Trend Analysis of United Bank of India 41

XVIII Trend Analysis of Vijaya Bank 42

XIX Trend Analysis of IDBI Bank ltd. 44

XX Trend Analysis of State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur 45

XXI Trend Analysis of State Bank of India 47

XXII Trend Analysis of State Bank of Mysore 48

XXIII Trend Analysis of State Bank of Travancore 50


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XXIV Trend Analysis of Bank of India 51

XXV Trend Analysis of City Union Bank ltd. 53

XXVI Trend Analysis of Dhanalakshmi Bank ltd. 54

XXVII Trend Analysis of Federal Bank ltd. 56

XXVIII Trend Analysis of INGY Vysya Bank ltd. 57

XXIX Trend Analysis of Jammu and Kashmir Bank ltd. 59

XXX Trend Analysis of Karnataka Bank ltd. 60

XXXI Trend Analysis of Karur Vysya Bank ltd 62

XXXII Trend Analysis of Lakshmi Vilas Bank ltd. 63

XXXIII Trend Analysis of South Indian Bank ltd. 65XXXIV Trend Analysis of Axis Bank ltd. 66

XXXV Trend Analysis of Development Credit Bank ltd 68

XXXVI Trend Analysis of HDFC Bank ltd. 69

XXXVII Trend Analysis of ICICI Bank ltd. 71

XXXVIII Trend Analysis of IndusInd Bank ltd. 72

XXXIX Trend Analysis of Kotak Mahindra Bank 74


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List of charts


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LIST OF CHARTS

CHART

NO

PARTICULARS PAGE

NOI Trend Analysis of Allahabad Bank 18

II Trend Analysis of Andhra Bank 19

III Trend Analysis of Bank of Baroda 21

IV Trend Analysis of Bank of Maharastra 22

V Trend Analysis of Canara Bank 24

VI Trend Analysis of Central Bank of India 25VII Trend Analysis of Corporation Bank 27

VIII Trend Analysis of Dena Bank 28

IX Trend Analysis of Indian Bank 30

X Trend Analysis of Indian Overseas Bank 31

XI Trend Analysis of Oriental Bank of Commerce 33

XII Trend Analysis of Punjab and Sind Bank 34

XIII Trend Analysis of Punjab National Bank 36

XIV Trend Analysis of Syndicate Bank 37

XV Trend Analysis of UCO Bank 39

XVI Trend Analysis of Union Bank 40

XVII Trend Analysis of United Bank of India 42

XVIII Trend Analysis of Vijaya Bank 43

XIX Trend Analysis of IDBI Bank ltd. 45

XX Trend Analysis of State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur 46

XXI Trend Analysis of State Bank of India 48

XXII Trend Analysis of State Bank of Mysore 49


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XXIII Trend Analysis of State Bank of Travancore 51

XXIV Trend Analysis of Bank of India 52

XXV Trend Analysis of City Union Bank ltd. 54

XXVI Trend Analysis of Dhanalakshmi Bank ltd. 55

XXVII Trend Analysis of Federal Bank ltd. 57

XXVIII Trend Analysis of INGY Vysya Bank ltd. 58

XXIX Trend Analysis of Jammu and Kashmir Bank ltd. 60

XXX Trend Analysis of Karnataka Bank ltd. 61

XXXI Trend Analysis of Karur Vysya Bank ltd 63

XXXII Trend Analysis of Lakshmi Vilas Bank ltd. 64XXXIII Trend Analysis of South Indian Bank ltd. 66

XXXIV Trend Analysis of Axis Bank ltd. 67

XXXV Trend Analysis of Development Credit Bank ltd 69

XXXVI Trend Analysis of HDFC Bank ltd. 70

XXXVII Trend Analysis of ICICI Bank ltd. 72

XXXVIII Trend Analysis of IndusInd Bank ltd. 73XXXIX Trend Analysis of Kotak Mahindra Bank 75


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Chapter 1Introduction


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CHAPTER 1 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 INTRODUCTION OF THE STUDY

The economy is very different from what it was a decade ago and all signs point

to the fact that the economy will never be exactly the same. In a perfect world the stock market

would be predictable; specific market conditions would correspond to specific results. The stock

market is nowhere near perfect though, and as a result a thorough understanding of how market

conditions effects profit margins is very beneficial. Global competition in the marketplace has

introduced a whole new level of complexity to the process of investing, and items that were sure

fire investments in the past no longer have that status.

Investing in the stock market at its core is a numbers game, but to be truly successful in the

market it requires an understanding of the motivations behind why companies make certain

financial moves. There is a fine lin19e between insider trading and being well-informed about a

trade prospect. The well-informed investor knows how to spread assets over a variety of

different investments; diversifying is essential to saying competitive in the stop market.

If you are truly new to stock market investing, a basic understanding of the major exchange

indices will help you to get a general picture of what is happening in the stock market from day

to day. The daily changes are based on differences between the current price and base prices of

different major stocks. Different indices give investors a broad view of different industries. The

Dow Jones for example refers to the index that gauges the changes in the stocks considered the 30

most influential in the United States. The S&P 500 covers companies that make up roughly 70%

of the total market value, and for this reason it is considered by many to be a better indicator of

actual market health than the Dow. The NASDAQ is another big indicator, but it is more heavily

weighted toward technology stocks, and this bias should be taken into consideration when using

the NASDAQ. If you feel like you are ready to dabble in investing a good place to start is with

one of the basic online investing sites. Most of the sites allow you to invest with a much smaller


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minimum investment than going through a traditional brick-and-mortar investment firm. Be sure

to read up on any online investment site you choose to use since unfortunately there are scam

sites out there that will still your money. Do not be afraid to get your feet wet though; you may

just find you have a real knack for investing.

1.2 INDUSTRY PROFILE

1.2.1 STOCK EXCHANGE

A stock exchange is an entity that provides services for stock brokers and traders

to trade stocks, bonds, and other securities. Stock exchanges also provide facilities for issue and

redemption of securities and other financial instruments, and capital events including the

payment of income and dividends. Securities traded on a stock exchange include shares issued

by companies, unit trusts, derivatives, pooled investment products and bonds.

To be able to trade a security on a certain stock exchange, it must be listed there. Usually, there

is a central location at least for record keeping, but trade is increasingly less linked to such a

physical place, as modern markets are electronic networks, which gives them advantages of

increased speed and reduced cost of transactions. Trade on an exchange is by members only.

The initial offering of stocks and bonds to investors is by definition done in the primary market

and subsequent trading is done in the secondary market. A stock exchange is often the most

important component of a stock market. Supply and demand in stock markets is driven by

various factors that, as in all free markets, affect the price of stocks.

There is usually no compulsion to issue stock via the stock exchange itself, nor must stock be

subsequently traded on the exchange. Such trading is said to be off exchange or over-the-counter.

This is the usual way that derivatives and bonds are traded. Increasingly, stock exchanges are

part of a global market for securities.


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1.3 NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) is a stock exchange located at Mumbai, India.

It is the 9th largest stock exchange in the world by market capitalization and largest in India by

daily turnover and number of trades, for both equities and derivative trading. NSE has a market

capitalization of around US$1.59 trillion and over 1,552 listings as of December 2010. Though a

number of other exchanges exist, NSE and the Bombay Stock Exchange are the two most

significant stock exchanges in India, and between them are responsible for the vast majority of

share transactions. The NSE's key index is the S&P CNX Nifty, known as the NSE NIFTY

(National Stock Exchange Fifty), an index of fifty major stocks weighted by market

capitalisation.

NSE is mutually-owned by a set of leading financial institutions, banks, insurance companies

and other financial intermediaries in India but its ownership and management operate as separate

entities. There are at least 2 foreign investors NYSE Euronext and Goldman Sachs who have

taken a stake in the NSE. As of 2006, the NSE VSAT terminals, 2799 in total, cover more than

1500 cities across India. NSE is the third largest Stock Exchange in the world in terms of the

number of trades in equities. It is the second fastest growing stock exchange in the world with a

recorded growth of 16.6%.

NSE was set up with the objectives of:

y Establishing nationwide trading facility for all types of securities

y Ensuring equal access to investors all over the country through an appropriate

telecommunication network

y Providing fair, efficient & transparent securities market using electronic trading system

y Enabling shorter settlement cycles and book entry settlements

y Meeting International benchmarks and standards


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1.3.1 Markets

Currently, NSE has the following major segments of the capital market:

y Equityy Futures and Options

y Retail Debt Market

y Wholesale Debt Market

y Currency futures

y Mutual Fund

y Stocks Lending and Borrowing

1.4 INTRODUCTION TO THE PROJECT

Analyzing the share prices of all private and public Banks under NSE INDIA using Trend

Analysis.

A bank is a financial intermediary and appears in several related basic forms:

y a central bank issues money on behalf of a government, and regulates the money supply

y a commercial bank accepts deposits and channels those deposits into lending activities,

either directly or through capital markets. A bank connects customers with capital deficits

to customers with capital surpluses on the world's open financial markets.

y a savings bank, also known as a building society in Britain is only allowed to borrow and

save from members of a financial cooperative

Banking is generally a highly regulated industry, and government restrictions on financial

activities by banks have varied over time and location. The current set of global bank capital

standards are called Basel II. In some countries such as Germany, banks have historically owned

major stakes in industrial corporations while in other countries such as the United States banks

are prohibited from owning non-financial companies. In Japan, banks are usually the nexus of a

cross-share holding entity known as the keiretsu. In Iceland banks followed international

standards of regulation prior to the 2008 collapse.


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The oldest bank still in existence is Monte dei Paschi di Siena, headquartered in Siena, Italy, and

has been operating continuously since 1472.

1.4.1 Types of banks

Banks' activities can be divided into retail banking, dealing directly with individuals

and small businesses; business banking, providing services to mid-market business; corporate

banking, directed at large business entities; private banking, providing wealth management

services to high net worth individuals and families; and investment banking, relating to activities

on the financial markets. Most banks are profit-making, private enterprises. However, some are

owned by government, or are non-profit organizations.

Retail banks

y Commercial bank: the term used for a normal bank to distinguish it from an investment

bank. After the Great Depression, the U.S. Congress required that banks only engage in

banking activities, whereas investment banks were limited to capital market activities.

Since the two no longer have to be under separate ownership, some use the term

"commercial bank" to refer to a bank or a division of a bank that mostly deals with

deposits and loans from corporations or large businesses.

y Community banks: locally operated financial institutions that empower employees to

make local decisions to serve their customers and the partners.

y Community development banks: regulated banks that provide financial services and

credit to under-served markets or populations.

y Credit unions: not-for-profit cooperatives owned by the depositors and often offering

rates more favorable than for-profit banks. Typically, membership is restricted to

employees of a particular company, residents of a defined neighborhood, members of a

certain labor union or religious organizations, and their immediate families.

y Postal savings banks: savings banks associated with national postal systems.

y Private banks: banks that manage the assets of high net worth individuals. Historically a

minimum of USD 1 million was required to open an account, however, over the last years


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many private banks have lowered their entry hurdles to USD 250,000 for private

investors.

y Offshore banks: banks located in jurisdictions with low taxation and regulation. Many

offshore banks are essentially private banks.

y Savings bank: in Europe, savings banks took their roots in the 19th or sometimes even in

the 18th century. Their original objective was to provide easily accessible savings

products to all strata of the population. In some countries, savings banks were created on

public initiative; in others, socially committed individuals created foundations to put in

place the necessary infrastructure. Nowadays, European savings banks have kept their

focus on retail banking: payments, savings products, credits and insurances for

individuals or small and medium-sized enterprises. Apart from this retail focus, they also

differ from commercial banks by their broadly decentralised distribution network, providing local and regional outreachand by their socially responsible approach to

business and society.

y Building societies and Landesbanks: institutions that conduct retail banking.

y Ethical banks: banks that prioritize the transparency of all operations and make only what

they consider to be socially-responsible investments.

y A Direct or Internet-Only bank is a banking operation without any physical bank

branches, conceived and implemented wholly with networked computers.

Investment banks

y Investment banks "underwrite" (guarantee the sale of) stock and bond issues, trade for

their own accounts, make markets, and advise corporations on capital market activities

such as mergers and acquisitions.

y Merchant banks were traditionally banks which engaged in trade finance. The modern

definition, however, refers to banks which provide capital to firms in the form of sharesrather than loans. Unlike venture capital firms, they tend not to invest in new companies.


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1.4.2 Economic functions of Banks

The economic functions of banks include:

1. Issue of money, in the form of banknotes and current accounts subject to cheque or

payment at the customer's order. These claims on banks can act as money because they

are negotiable or repayable on demand, and hence valued at par. They are effectively

transferable by mere delivery, in the case of banknotes, or by drawing a cheque that the

payee may bank or cash.

2. Netting and settlement of payments banks act as both collection and paying agents for

customers, participating in interbank clearing and settlement systems to collect, present,

be presented with, and pay payment instruments. This enables banks to economise on

reserves held for settlement of payments, since inward and outward payments offset each

other. It also enables the offsetting of payment flows between geographical areas,

reducing the cost of settlement between them.

3. Credit intermediation banks borrow and lend back-to-back on their own account as

middle men.

4. Credit quality improvement banks lend money to ordinary commercial and personal

borrowers (ordinary credit quality), but are high quality borrowers. The improvement

comes from diversification of the bank's assets and capital which provides a buffer toabsorb losses without defaulting on its obligations. However, banknotes and deposits are

generally unsecured; if the bank gets into difficulty and pledges assets as security, to raise

the funding it needs to continue to operate, this puts the note holders and depositors in an

economically subordinated position.

5. Maturity transformation banks borrow more on demand debt and short term debt, but

provide more long term loans. In other words, they borrow short and lend long. With a

stronger credit quality than most other borrowers, banks can do this by aggregating issues

(e.g. accepting deposits and issuing banknotes) and redemptions (e.g. withdrawals and

redemptions of banknotes), maintaining reserves of cash, investing in marketable

securities that can be readily converted to cash if needed, and raising replacement funding

as needed from various sources (e.g. wholesale cash markets and securities markets).


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1.5 NEED FOR THE STUDY

A better understanding of the stock market trend will facilitate allocation of

financial resources to the most profitable investment opportunity. The behavior of stock returns

will enable the investors to make appropriate investment decisions. The fluctuations of stock returns are due to several economic and non-economic factors. The study is aimed at ascertaining

the behavior of stock returns by trend analysis. The study on fluctuations in equity market helps

in understanding the behavior of equity market. It helps investors to be aware about deviations in

the returns of the stocks. The conclusions that are to be provided based on the analysis of the

data would be of immense use to the investors on one hand and the officials of the stock market

to understand the responsiveness of market price of the sample industries to different situation on

the other.

1.6 COMPANY PROFILE

Coimbatore Capital Limited (CCap) was promoted by industrialist and financial expert

Mr.D.Balasundaram, founder Director of Coimbatore Stock Exchange Limited and Inter

Connected Stock Exchange of India Limited. Mr.Balasundaram is a Member of Executive

Committee of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) and also served as an

Executive Committee Member of the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) earlier.

Mr.Balasundaram also served as an elected President of Indian Chamber of Commerce and

Industry, Coimbatore and Coimbatore Stock Exchange Limited. CCap was founded with a vision

built on the concept of ' Enrich Yourself ' for the future. As Chairman of CCap and its associate

companies, he has been instrumental in building the business model for CCap. CCap is steered

forward by the combined vision of its promoters and stake holders. Headed by a team of

management, ITeS and finance experts. CCap was able to grow, sustain and envision a future of

immense potential.

The vision of its founder is taken forward by its directors, comprising experts in the industry.y Mr.B.Venkateswaran has three decades exposure to various aspects of business

administration.

y Dr.K.Sabapathy has three decades ITES specialist experience.

y Dr.S.Karthikeyan more than two decades experience in the financial market.


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The vision of CCap and its group Companies is achieved by its 500 strong team comprising

NCFM qualified personnel. Assisting them is a group of specially trained staff who extend the

support services at CCap. The team is well trained periodically to extend the best services to

achieve its mission. Back office and DP services are fully computerized and web-enabled. The

clients can view their contracts, ledgers, payment obligations and DP holdings

(www.coimbatorecapital.in). CCap conducts investor awareness meetings periodically and

budget meetings every year. The achievements of the group thus far and for the future are a

reflection of the bonds of trust it has built with its patrons. CCap is registered with the

appropriate regulatory and financial service bodies including National Stock Exchange of India

Limited (NSE) in the Cash Market, Futures and Options, Currency Derivative Segments and

Mutual Fund Services Scheme. Depository Participant (DP) of National Securities Depository

Limited (NSDL) connecting over 65,000 beneficiary account holders. Suxxus-DBS SecuritiesLimited, a subsidiary of CCap is also a member of Inter-Connected Stock Exchange of India. It

offers trading facility of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The gamut of services from CCap is

based on indepth analysis of the markets, the team's strategic insights and constant market

updates. Coimbatore Commodities Limited (CCom): CCom is a wholly owned subsidiary of

CCap which extends trading in the Commodity derivatives. CCom is a Member of National

Commodities and Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) and Multi Commodities Exchange

Limited (MCX). Trading in commodities is extended in strict compliance with statutory rules

and norms. Advice on current markets, emerging trends and clarity on investments is regularly

updated by SMS alerts. Coimbatore Insurance and Investment Consultants Limited (CII) : This is

another group Company extending insurance distribution services. A team of professionals

service the clients in insurance investments. The clients are updated with the latest products in

the industry. One decade and Growing CCap is one of the most trusted and reputed investment

services company providing a wide array of wealth creation solutions for a growing client base

in South India. From modest beginning in 1995, the company emerged as one of the best stock

broking houses focusing on the retail segment in South India. Headquartered at Coimbatore,

CCap has over 150 terminals / branches across South India. CCap is focusing on expanding its

reach to semi urban and rural areas. Sound Business Practices CCap has established a

widespread network for offering its services due to its clear ideology adhering to fundamental

principles of transparent and efficient execution with high level of integrity and ethics. Strong


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client focus : CCap ideology revolves around its clients. Every minute detail of a transaction is

focused on their needs. Client service is important at CCap. Safe and Secure : CCap witnessed

the meteoric growth of the investment portfolio of its clients since its inception.

1.7 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

Primary Objective

The Primary objective of the study is to analyse the share price movements of all the

public and 15 private banks in NSE.

Secondary Objectives

To find out the future trends of banks.

y To rank the banks based on the calculated future trends for the next five months.y To estimate the trends in the rate of return for the banks.y To evaluate the volatilities of share prices.y To suggest solution based on the result of the analysis.

1.8 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

To predict the future trends of the banks.

y Suggest the investors to invest on better scripts on the basis of the analysis.y To better understand the stock market which will facilitate allocation of financial

resources to the most profitable investment opportunity.

1.9 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

The main limitations of the study are as follows.

y In calculating trends, only two decimal points are considered and frequency is calculated

by rounding it off to near 0.25%.

y Foreign banks and commercial banks are not taken into account.y The intraday prices of the shares are not considered.


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Chapter 2Review of literature


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CHAPTER 2

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

The purpose of the chapter is to review the various studies conducted and made toconsolidate the views and studies to determine the effectiveness of different factor which

influence the equity price.

Eugene F. Fama(jan.,1965) 1 studied, the Behavior of stock market prices. The main objective

of the theory is to find answer to the question: to what extent can be used to make meaningful

predictions concerning the future prices of stocks?

Prof. Leopold A. Bernstein (1975)2

in his article had defended the function and value of fundamental investment analysis as the basis of successful investment in equity shares. He had

argued that even though psychological and other factors accounted 50% of price changes the

other 50% of it was only due to fundamental factors.

Prakash L. Dheeriya 3 studied the early movement of stock market indices of major rational

stock exchanges of 16 countries over the period of 1987 crash. He used time series of daily stock

market indices at closing time. He found evidence of co-integration between stock indices of

some small European countries.

Jay R. Ritter (1998) 4 analyzed the buy/ sell details of NYSE stocks over a period of 15

years from Dec 17, 1970 to Dec 16, 1985. Ritter proposed the parking- the proceeds

hypothesis i.e., the individual investors who sell the stocks prior to the late December for tax

1 Eugene F. Fama, T he Behavior of Stock Market Prices ". T he Journal of Business , Vol. 38, No. 1. (Jan.,1965), pp.34-105.

2 Prof. Leopold A. Bernstein, Successful Investment. In defense of fundamental analysis , Vol. 31,(1975), pp. 34-57

3 Prakash L. Dheeriya Early movements of stock market index , Academy of Banking Studies Journal, Vol. 8, No.1(1987), pp. 213-267

4 Jay R. Ritter, Cordell Professor of Finance, "The Market's Problems with the Pricing of Initial Public Offerings", Contemporary Finance Digest Vol. 2, No. 1 (Spring 1998), pp. 5-30


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loss selling and they buy the shares in early January, mostly small stocks. He concluded that

the ratio of stock purchases to sales by individual investor displays a seasonal pattern, with

individuals having a below-normal and buy/sell ratio in late December and above normal ratio

in early January.

Kshama Fernandes,Goa Institute of Management (2003) 5 studied Evaluating index fund

implementation in India In this paper, they seek to measure and understand the tracking error of

index funds in India. The consistency and level of tracking errors obtained by some wellrun

index funds suggests that it is possible to attain low levels of tracking error under Indian

conditions. At the same time, there do seem to be periods where certain index funds appear to

depart from the discipline of indexation.

Hiren M. Maniar, Rajesh Bhatt and Dharmesh M. Maniyar (2009) 6 on title Expiration Hour

Effect of Futures and Options Markets on Stock Market- A Case Study on NSE (National Stock

Exchange of India) explains the effect of expiration day of the Index futures and Options on the

trading volume, variance and price of the underlying shares

5Kshama Fernandes, Evaluating index fund implementation in India, Goa Institute of Management, GoaJuly 26, 2003 .

6 Hiren M. Maniar, Rajesh Bhatt and Dharmesh M. Maniyar, " Expiration hour effect of futures and options marketson stock market", International Review of Economics & Finance , vol. 18, issue 3, 2009, pp 381-391


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Chapter 3

Research Methodology


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CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 RESEARCH DESIGN

This project analyses the equity market and its fluctuations in India. The project

aims to analyze the average return and risk involved in the stocks of all the public and private

sector banks for the study. Trend Analysis is used to predict the future share prices of the banks.

It helps the investors to invest in the right bank. Here analytical research design is used.

3.2 SAMPLE SIZEFor the purpose of this study the daily closing prices of all the Public and 15 Private sector

banks in National Stock Exchange were taken and their price movements are computed and

studied

3.3 DATA COLLECTION METHOD

The sample of the stocks for the purpose of collecting secondary data has been selected

on the basis of Random Sampling. The stocks are chosen in an unbiased manner and each stock

is chosen independent of the other stocks chosen.

3.3.1 SOURCES OF DATA

The data about the share prices and the turnover rates were collected from the NSE

website.

3.4 TIME PERIOD COVERED

The daily share prices of all public and private sector banks were taken for a period of Aug 2010 to April 2011. The closing prices of share prices were taken and the future price

movements were analyzed.


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3.5 TOOLS USED FOR ANALYSIS

Trend Analysis is used to calculate the share price Movements of all banks.

3.5.1 TREND ANALYSIS

The financial statements can be analyzed by computing trends of series of

information. This method of direction upwards or downwards and involves the computation of

the percentage relationship that each statement item bears to the same item in the base year. The

information for the number of months is taken up and one month generally the first month is

taken as the base year. The base year is been carefully selected. The base period should be a

normal period. The price level changes in subsequent months may reduce the utility of the trend

ratios.

3.5.1.1 FORMULA TO CALCULATE TREND ANALYSIS

Where

a = Y

N

b = UY

U

U = X Base Month

Here,

Closing Price of stocks is taken as X. (Assuming August = 1, September = 2, October = 3,

November = 4, December = 5 January = 6 etc)

Yc = a + bX


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Chapter 4

Analysis And Interpretations


36/102

CHAPTER 4

ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATIONS

4.1 BANKING SECTOR

The banking system remains, as always, the most dominant segment of the

financial sector. Indian banks continue to build on their strengths under the regulator's watchful

eye and hence, have emerged stronger.

In the annual international ranking conducted by UK-based Brand Finance Plc, 18 Indian banks

have been included in the Brand Finance Global Banking 500. In fact, State Bank of India

(SBI), which is the first Indian bank to be ranked among the Top 50 banks in the world, has

improved its position from 36th to 34th, as per the Brand Finance study released on February 1,

2011. The brand value of SBI has enhanced to US$ 1.12 billion. ICICI Bank, the only other

Indian bank in the top 100 club has improved its position with a brand value of US$ 2.5 billion.

Indian banks contributed 1.7 per cent to the total global brand value at US$ 14.74 billion and

grew by 19 per cent in 2011, according to the study.

Nationalised banks, as a group, accounted for 51.2 per cent of the aggregate deposits, while StateBank of India (SBI) and its associates accounted for 22.5 per cent, according to Reserve Bank of

India's (RBI) 'Quarterly Statistics on Deposits and Credit of Scheduled Commercial Banks:

September 2010'. The share of New private sector banks, Old private sector banks, Foreign

banks and Regional Rural banks in aggregate deposits was 13.5 per cent, 4.5 per cent, 5.2 per

cent and 3.1 per cent respectively.

With respect to gross bank credit also, nationalised banks hold the highest share of 50.9 per cent

in the total bank credit, with SBI and its associates at 23.1 per cent and New Private sector banks

at 13.7 per cent. Foreign banks, Old private sector banks and Regional Rural banks held

relatively lower shares in the total bank credit with 5.2 per cent, 4.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent

respectively.


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The report also found that scheduled commercial bank offices (with deposits of US$ 2.25 or

more) accounted for 66.2 per cent of the bank offices, 96.6 per cent in terms of aggregate

deposits and 93.8 per cent in total bank credit.

Bank loans registered a growth of 21.38 per cent in 2010-11, while deposit growth stood at 15.84

per cent, according to data released by RBI. Analysts and bankers said a growth rate of 18 per

cent in deposits and 20 per cent in credit should be sustainable for banks in 2011-12.

India's foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 308.2 billion as on April 8, 2011, according to the

data in the weekly statistical supplement released by RBI.

Indians who live and work abroad have remitted US$ 55 billion in 2010 as compared to US$

49.6 billion in 2009 and have topped the world list in sending money back home, according toWorld Bank's Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011. With online money transfer services

provided by many banks becoming popular, remitting money from any corner of the world is no

more a problem.


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4.1.1 TREND ANALYSIS

PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS

TABLE I

This table has the closing stock of Allahabad Bank for the month of August 2010 to April 2011

using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.

TREND ANALYSIS FOR ALLAHABAD BANK

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UY

Aug-10 1 209 -4 16 -836Sep-10 2 232.2 -3 9 -696.6Oct-10 3 247.75 -2 4 -495.5Nov-10 4 239.5 -1 1 -239.5Dec-10 5 225.9 0 0 0Jan-11 6 202.45 1 1 202.45Feb-11 7 198.3 2 4 396.6Mar-11 8 229.75 3 9 689.25Apr-11 9 205.1 4 16 820.4

1989.95 60 -158.9

Source: www.nseindia.com

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Allahabad Bank for the month of May is predicted to

be 207.86, for the month of June is predicted to be 205.21, for the month of July is predicted to

be 202.56, for the month of August is predicted to be 199.91 and for the month of September is

predicted to be 197.26.

Tre nd fo r futu re month P re dict e d futu re pr ice

207.86205.21202.56199.91197.26

May-11Jun-11Jul-11

Aug-11Sep-11


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CHART I

TREND ANALYSIS FOR ALLAHABAD BANK

TABLE II

This table has the closing stock of Andhra Bank for the month of August 2010 to April

2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.

TREND ANALYSIS OF ANDHRA BANK

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 151.85 -4 16 -607.4Sep-10 2 159.7 -3 9 -479.1Oct-10 3 178.2 -2 4 -356.4Nov-10 4 157.8 -1 1 -157.8Dec-10 5 150.45 0 0 0

Jan-11 6 139.65 1 1 139.65Feb-11 7 135.7 2 4 271.4Mar-11 8 150.65 3 9 451.95Apr-11 9 138.95 4 16 555.8

1362.95 60 -181.9


207.86

205.21

202.56

199.91

197.26

190

192

194

196

198

200

202

204

206

208

210

May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11

S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

C ha r t T itl e

Series3

Series2

Series1


40/102

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Andhra Bank for the month of May is predicted to be

136.29, for the month of June is predicted to be 133.26, for the month of July is predicted to be

130.23, for the month of August is predicted to be 127.2 and for the month of September is


CHART II

TREND ANALYSIS FOR ANDHRA BANK

136.29

133.26

130.23

127.2

124.17

118

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

138


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

Series3

Series2

Series1

127.2124.17

May-11Jun-11Jul-11

Aug-11Sep-11

Tre nd fo r futu re month P re dict e d futu re p r ice

136.29133.26130.23


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TABLE III

This table has the closing stock of Bank of Baroda for the month of August 2010 to April


TREND ANALYSIS OF BANK OF BARODA

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 825.15 -4 16 -3300.6Sep-10 2 872.5 -3 9 -2617.5Oct-10 3 1014.15 -2 4 -2028.3

Nov-10 4 913 -1 1 -913Dec-10 5 896.7 0 0 0Jan-11 6 869.5 1 1 869.5Feb-11 7 870.75 2 4 1741.5Mar-11 8 964.85 3 9 2894.55Apr-11 9 911.9 4 16 3647.6

8138.5 60 293.75 Source: www.nseindia.com

Tre nd fo r futu re month P re dict e d futu re p r ice928.78933.68938.58943.48948.38

May-11Jun-11Jul-11

Aug-11Sep-11

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Bank of Baroda for the month of May is predicted to be

928.78, for the month of June is predicted to be 933.68, for the month of July is predicted to be938.58, for the month of August is predicted to be 943.48 and for the month of September is



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CHART III

TREND ANALYSIS FOR BANK OF BARODA

928.78

933.68

938.58

943.48

948.38

915

920

925

930

935

940

945

950


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

Series3

Series2

Series1

TABLE IV

This table has the closing stock of Bank of Maharastra for the month of August 2010 to

April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.

TREND ANALYSIS OF BANK OF MAHARASTRA

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 67.75 -4 16 -271Sep-10 2 70.75 -3 9 -212.25

Oct-10 3 77.65 -2 4 -155.3Nov-10 4 68.8 -1 1 -68.8

Dec-10 5 66.35 0 0 0

Jan-11 6 59.15 1 1 59.15Feb-11 7 56.95 2 4 113.9

Mar-11 8 59.7 3 9 179.1Apr-11 9 60.2 4 16 240.8

587.3 60 -114.4



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Tre nd fo r futu re month P re dict e d futu re p r ice

Aug-11 50.01

Sep-11 48.1

May-11 55.73Jun-11 53.82Jul-11 51.91

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Bank of Maharastra for the month of May is predicted

to be 55.73, for the month of June is predicted to be 53.82, for the month of July is predicted to



CHART IV

TREND ANALYSIS FOR BANK OF MAHARASTRA

55.73

53.82

51.91

50.01

48.1

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

Series1


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TABLE V

This table has the closing stock of Canara Bank for the month of August 2010 to April


TREND ANALYSIS OF CANARA BANK

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 513.95 -4 16 -2055.8Sep-10 2 583.05 -3 9 -1749.15Oct-10 3 721.5 -2 4 -1443Nov-10 4 741.5 -1 1 -741.5Dec-10 5 660.25 0 0 0

Jan-11 6 602.9 1 1 602.9Feb-11 7 614.15 2 4 1228.3Mar-11 8 626.25 3 9 1878.75Apr-11 9 631.85 4 16 2527.4

5695.4 60 247.9


Tre nd for future month Pre dicte d future price653.49657.62661.75665.88670.01

May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Canara Bank for the month of May is predicted to be





45/102

CHART V

TREND ANALYSIS FOR CANARA BANK

653.49

657.62

661.75

665.88

670.01

645

650

655

660

665

670

675


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

Series1

TABLE VI

This table has the closing stock of Central Bank of India for the month of August 2010 to


TREND ANALYSIS OF CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 179.4 -4 16 -717.6

Sep-10 2 194.6 -3 9 -583.8

Oct-10 3 226.25 -2 4 -452.5

Nov-10 4 188.75 -1 1 -188.75

Dec-10 5 181.7 0 0 0

Jan-11 6 172.15 1 1 172.15

Feb-11 7 153.9 2 4 307.8

Mar-11 8 140.5 3 9 421.5

Apr-11 9 134.65 4 16 538.6

1571.9 60 -502.6



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Tre nd for future month Pre dicte d future price

132.78124.4

116.02

107.6599.27

May-11Jun-11Jul-11

Aug-11Sep-11

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Central Bank of India for the month of May is

predicted to be 132.78, for the month of June is predicted to be 124.4, for the month of July is

predicted to be 116.02, for the month of August is predicted to be 107.65 and for the month of

September is predicted to be 99.27.

CHART VI

TREND ANALYSIS FOR CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA

132.78124.4

116.02107.65

99.27

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

Series1


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TABLE VII

This table has the closing stock of Corporation Bank for the month of August 2010 to


TREND ANALYSIS OF CORPORATION BANK

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 569.75 -4 16 -2279Sep-10 2 692.95 -3 9 -2078.85Oct-10 3 746.15 -2 4 -1492.3Nov-10 4 708.95 -1 1 -708.95Dec-10 5 636.2 0 0 0

Jan-11 6 575.35 1 1 575.35Feb-11 7 546.9 2 4 1093.8Mar-11 8 636.2 3 9 1908.6Apr-11 9 580.2 4 16 2320.8

5692.65 60 -660.55 Source: www.nseindia.com

Pre dicte d future priceTre nd for future month

Aug-11 544.43Sep-11 533.44

May-11 577.48

Jun-11 566.47Jul-11 555.46

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Corporation Bank for the month of May is predicted to

be 577.48, for the month of June is predicted to be 566.47, for the month of July is predicted to




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CHART VII

TREND ANALYSIS FOR CORPORATION BANK

577.48

566.47

555.46

544.45

533.44

510

520

530

540

550

560

570

580

590


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

Series1

TABLE VIII

This table has the closing stock of Dena Bank for the month of August 2010 to April


TREND ANALYSIS OF DENA BANK


Sep-10 2 106.05 -3 9 -318.15

Oct-10 3 136.7 -2 4 -273.4

Nov-10 4 125.9 -1 1 -125.9

Dec-10 5 116.5 0 0 0

Jan-11 6 104.75 1 1 104.75Feb-11 7 95.1 2 4 190.2

Mar-11 8 104 3 9 312

Apr-11 9 104.25 4 16 417

996.05 60 -104.7



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Tre nd for future month Pre dicte d future price

Aug-11 96.72Sep-11 94.97

May-11 101.95Jun-11 100.21Jul-11 98.46

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Dena Bank for the month of May is predicted to be




CHART VIII

TREND ANALYSIS FOR DENA BANK

101.95

100.21

98.46

96.72

94.97

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug -11 Sep-11

S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s


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TABLE IX

This table has the closing stock of Indian Bank for the month of August 2010 to April


TREND ANALYSIS OF INDIAN BANK


Sep-10 2 278.7 -3 9 -836.1

Oct-10 3 291.8 -2 4 -583.6

Nov-10 4 278.75 -1 1 -278.75

Dec-10 5 246.8 0 0 0

Jan-11 6 210.45 1 1 210.45

Feb-11 7 204.4 2 4 408.8

Mar-11 8 232.75 3 9 698.25

Apr-11 9 241.1 4 16 964.4

2233.2 60 -410.35


Pre dict e d futu re p r iceTre nd fo r futu re month

Aug-11 193.42Sep-11 186.59

May-11 213.94

Jun-11 207.1Jul-11 200.26

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Indian Bank for the month of May is predicted to be


200.26, for the month of August is predicted to be 193.42 and for the month of September is predicted to be 186.59.


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CHART IX

TREND ANALYSIS FOR INDIAN BANK

213.94

207.1

200.26

193.42

186.59

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

215

220


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

Series1

TABLE X

This table has the closing stock of Indian Overseas Bank for the month of August 2010

to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.

TREND ANALYSIS OF INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 124.7 -4 16 -498.8Sep-10 2 131.95 -3 9 -395.85Oct-10 3 159.8 -2 4 -319.6Nov-10 4 147.2 -1 1 -147.2Dec-10 5 146.6 0 0 0Jan-11 6 130.1 1 1 130.1Feb-11 7 133.25 2 4 266.5Mar-11 8 143.8 3 9 431.4Apr-11 9 152.55 4 16 610.2

1269.95 60 76.75 Source: www.nseindia.com


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Aug-11 151.34Sep-11 152.62

May-11 147.51Jun-11 148.79Jul-11 150.06

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Indian Overseas Bank for the month of May is




CHART X

TREND ANALYSIS FOR INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK

147.51148.79

150.06

151.34

152.62

144

145

146

147

148

149

150

151

152153

154


S h a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

Series1


53/102

TABLE XI

This table has the closing stock of Oriental Bank of Commerce for the month of August

2010 to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the

stock.

TREND ANALYSIS OF ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE


Nov-10 4 424.25 -1 1 -424.25Dec-10 5 405.3 0 0 0Jan-11 6 330.3 1 1 330.3Feb-11 7 324.55 2 4 649.1Mar-11 8 389.05 3 9 1167.15Apr-11 9 345.55 4 16 1382.2

3603.1 60 -973.3


Pre dict e d futu re pr iceTre nd fo r futu re month

Aug-11 270.58Sep-11 254.35

May-11 319.24Jun-11 303.02Jul-11 286.8

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Oriental Bank of Commerce for the month of May is





54/102

CHART XI

TREND ANALYSIS FOR ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE

319.24303.02 286.8

270.58254.35

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

May-11 Jun-11 Jul -11 Aug-11 Sep-11

S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

Series1

TABLE XII

This table has the closing stock of Punjab and Sind Bank for the month of August 2010


TREND ANALYSIS OF PUNJAB AND SIND BANK

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYDec-10 1 128.35 -2 4 -256.7Jan-11 2 105.45 -1 1 -105.45Feb-11 3 103.95 0 0 0Mar-11 4 109.4 1 1 109.4Apr-11 5 110.3 2 4 220.6



55/102

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Punjab and Sind Bank for the month of May is




CHART XII

TREND ANALYSIS FOR PUNJAB AND SIND BANK

101.8598.63

95.42

92.288.99

80

85

90

95

100

105


S h a r e

P r

i c e s

Month s

Series1


Aug-11 92.2Sep-11 88.99

May-11 101.85Jun-11 98.63Jul-11 95.42


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TABLE XIII

This table has the closing stock of Punjab National Bank for the month of August 2010


TREND ANALYSIS OF PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 1180.25 -4 16 -4721Sep-10 2 1293.2 -3 9 -3879.6Oct-10 3 1290.8 -2 4 -2581.6Nov-10 4 1218.6 -1 1 -1218.6

Dec-10 5 1222 0 0 0Jan-11 6 1104.45 1 1 1104.45Feb-11 7 1062 2 4 2124Mar-11 8 1212.7 3 9 3638.1Apr-11 9 1185.1 4 16 4740.4



Aug-11 1090.72Sep-11 1077.49

May-11 1130.42Jun-11 1117.19Jul-11 1103.96

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Punjab National Bank for the month of May is predicted to be 1130.42, for the month of June is predicted to be 1117.19, for the month of July

is predicted to be 1103.96, for the month of August is predicted to be 1090.72 and for the month

of September is predicted to be 1077.49.


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CHART XIII

TREND ANALYSIS FOR PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK

1130.42

1117.19

1103.96

1090.72

1077.49

1050

1060

1070

1080

1090

1100

1110

1120

1130

1140


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

TABLE XIV

This table has the closing stock of Syndicate Bank for the month of August 2010 to April


TREND ANALYSIS OF SYNDICATE BANK


Sep-10 2 114.6 -3 9 -343.8

Oct-10 3 138.8 -2 4 -277.6

Nov-10 4 137.85 -1 1 -137.85

Dec-10 5 128.1 0 0 0

Jan-11 6 106.6 1 1 106.6

Feb-11 7 114.35 2 4 228.7

Mar-11 8 122.7 3 9 368.1

Apr-11 9 116.85 4 16 467.41088.55 60 -23.25



58/102

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Syndicate Bank for the month of May is predicted to be




CHART XIV

TREND ANALYSIS FOR SYNDICATE BANK

119.02

118.63

118.24

117.85

117.47

116.5

117

117.5

118

118.5

119

119.5


S h a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

P re dict e d futu re p r iceTre nd fo r futu re month

Aug-11 117.85

Sep-11 117.47

May-11 119.02Jun-11 118.63Jul-11 118.24


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TABLE XV

This table has the closing stock of UCO Bank for the month of August 2010 to April


TREND ANALYSIS OF UCO BANK


Sep-10 2 113 -3 9 -339

Oct-10 3 125.5 -2 4 -251

Nov-10 4 138.85 -1 1 -138.85

Dec-10 5 116.1 0 0 0Jan-11 6 107.65 1 1 107.65

Feb-11 7 97.7 2 4 195.4

Mar-11 8 107 3 9 321

Apr-11 9 104.45 4 16 417.81021.65 60 -132.6



Aug-11 95.84Sep-11 93.63

May-11 102.47Jun-11 100.26Jul-11 98.05

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of UCO Bank for the month of May is predicted to be





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CHART XV

TREND ANALYSIS FOR UCO BANK

102.47

100.26

98.05

95.84

93.63

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

TABLE XVI

This table has the closing stock of Union Bank for the month of August 2010 to April


TREND ANALYSIS OF UNION BANK

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 329 -4 16 -1316Sep-10 2 388.9 -3 9 -1166.7Oct-10 3 377.95 -2 4 -755.9Nov-10 4 352.3 -1 1 -352.3Dec-10 5 347.1 0 0 0Jan-11 6 330.1 1 1 330.1Feb-11 7 314 2 4 628Mar-11 8 347.25 3 9 1041.75Apr-11 9 319.3 4 16 1277.2



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Aug-11 303.26Sep-11 298.03

May-11 318.95Jun-11 313.72Jul-11 308.49

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Union Bank for the month of May is predicted to be




CHART XVI

TREND ANALYSIS FOR UNION BANK

318.95

313.72

308.49

303.26

298.03

285

290

295

300

305

310

315

320

325


S h a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s


62/102

TABLE XVII

This table has the closing stock of United Bank of India for the month of August 2010 to


TREND ANALYSIS OF UNITED BANK OF INDIA

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 94.45 -4 16 -377.8Sep-10 2 117.2 -3 9 -351.6Oct-10 3 126.55 -2 4 -253.1Nov-10 4 118.2 -1 1 -118.2

Dec-10 5 99.35 0 0 0Jan-11 6 94.75 1 1 94.75Feb-11 7 90.7 2 4 181.4Mar-11 8 106.3 3 9 318.9Apr-11 9 109.95 4 16 439.8



Aug-11 97.61Sep-11 96.51

May-11 100.9Jun-11 99.8Jul-11 98.71

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of United Bank of India for the month of May is predicted

to be 100.9, for the month of June is predicted to be 99.8, for the month of July is predicted to be




63/102

CHART XVII

TREND ANALYSIS FOR UNITED BANK OF INDIA

100.9

99.8

98.71

97.61

96.51

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

TABLE XVIII

This table has the closing stock of Vijaya Bank for the month of August 2010 to April


TREND ANALYSIS OF VIJAYA BANK


Jan-11 6 90.65 1 1 90.65Feb-11 7 75.8 2 4 151.6Mar-11 8 79.45 3 9 238.35Apr-11 9 83.05 4 16 332.2



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Aug-11 80.62Sep-11 79.66

May-11 83.48Jun-11 82.52Jul-11 81.57

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Vijaya Bank for the month of May is predicted to be




CHART XVIII

TREND ANALYSIS FOR VIJAYA BANK

83.48

82.52

81.57

80.62

79.66

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84


S h a r e

p r

i c e

s

Month s


65/102

TABLE XIX

This table has the closing stock of IDBI Bank Ltd. for the month of August 2010 to April


TREND ANALYSIS OF IDBI BANK LTD.




144.03143141.97140.94139.92

May-11Jun-11Jul-11

Aug-11Sep-11

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of IDBI Bank ltd. for the month of May is predicted to be

144.03, for the month of June is predicted to be 143, for the month of July is predicted to be141.97, for the month of August is predicted to be 140.94 and for the month of September is



66/102

CHART XIX

TREND ANALYSIS FOR IDBI BANK LTD

144.03

143

141.97

140.94

139.92

137

138

139

140

141

142

143

144

145


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

TABLE XX

This table has the closing stock of State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur for the month of

August 2010 to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of

the stock.

TREND ANALYSIS OF STATE BANK OF BIKANER AND JAIPUR


Jan-11 6 543.95 1 1 543.95Feb-11 7 577.8 2 4 1155.6Mar-11 8 521.2 3 9 1563.6Apr-11 9 550.5 4 16 2202

5582.95 60 -1522.55



67/102


Aug-11 417.33Sep-11 391.95

May-11 493.45Jun-11 468.08Jul-11 442.7

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur for the month of May

is predicted to be 493.45, for the month of June is predicted to be 468.08, for the month of July is



CHART XX

TREND ANALYSIS FOR STATE BANK OF BIKANER AND JAIPUR

493.45468.08 442.7

417.33391.95

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


S h a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s


68/102

TABLE XXI

This table has the closing stock of State Bank of India for the month of August 2010 to


TREND ANALYSIS OF STATE BANK OF INDIA


Nov-10 4 2992.2 -1 1 -2992.2Dec-10 5 2811.9 0 0 0Jan-11 6 2642.4 1 1 2642.4Feb-11 7 2630.45 2 4 5260.9Mar-11 8 2765.3 3 9 8295.9Apr-11 9 2804.6 4 16 11218.4


Pre dicte d futu re pr iceTre nd fo r futu re month

Aug-11 2512.12Sep-11 2467.74

May-11 2645.25Jun-11 2600.87Jul-11 2556.5

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of State Bank of India for the month of May is predicted

to be 2645.25, for the month of June is predicted to be 2600.87, for the month of July is predicted to be 2556.5, for the month of August is predicted to be 2512.12 and for the month of



69/102

CHART XXI

TREND ANALYSIS FOR STATE BANK OF INDIA

2645.25

2600.87

2556.5

2512.12

2467.74

2350

2400

2450

2500

2550

2600

2650

2700


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

TABLE XXII

This table has the closing stock of State Bank of Mysore for the month of August 2010


TREND ANALYSIS OF STATE BANK OF MYSORE


Jan-11 6 617.4 1 1 617.4Feb-11 7 654.55 2 4 1309.1Mar-11 8 652.4 3 9 1957.2Apr-11 9 682.5 4 16 2730



70/102


Aug-11 383.35Sep-11 336.11

May-11 525.07Jun-11 477.83Jul-11 430.59

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of State Bank of Mysore for the month of May is




CHART XXII

TREND ANALYSIS FOR STATE BANK OF MYSORE

525.07477.83

430.59383.35

336.11

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


S h a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s


71/102

TABLE XXIII

This table has the closing stock of State Bank of Travancore for the month of August


stock.

TREND ANALYSIS OF STATE BANK OF TRAVANCORE


Sep-10 2 906.85 -3 9 -2720.55

Oct-10 3 889.65 -2 4 -1779.3

Nov-10 4 816.1 -1 1 -816.1

Dec-10 5 830.8 0 0 0

Jan-11 6 701.2 1 1 701.2

Feb-11 7 704.6 2 4 1409.2

Mar-11 8 744.4 3 9 2233.2

Apr-11 9 777.6 4 16 3110.4

7176 60 -1081.15 Source : www.nseindia.com


Aug-11 653.18Sep-11 635.17

May-11 707.24Jun-11 689.22Jul-11 671.2

InterpretationThe Future price for the shares of State Bank of Travancore for the month of May is





72/102

CHART XXIII

TREND ANALYSIS FOR STATE BANK OF TRAVANCORE

707.24

689.22

671.2

653.18

635.17

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

TABLE XXIV

This table has the closing stock of Bank of India for the month of August 2010 to April


TREND ANALYSIS OF BANK OF INDIA

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 442.35 -4 16 -1769.4Sep-10 2 517.45 -3 9 -1552.35Oct-10 3 486.55 -2 4 -973.1Nov-10 4 467.8 -1 1 -467.8


4176.85 60 -190



73/102

Tre nd fo r futu re month P re dict e d futu re pr ice

Sep-11 495.56

445.07448.24

438.73

441.9Jul-11

Aug-11

May-11Jun-11

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Bank of India for the month of May is predicted to be




CHART XXIV

TREND ANALYSIS FOR BANK OF INDIA

448.24445.07

441.9438.73

495.56

410

420

430

440

450

460

470

480

490

500


S h a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s


74/102

PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS

TABLE XXV

This table has the closing stock of City Union Bank Ltd. for the month of August 2010


TREND ANALYSIS OF CITY UNION BANK LTD.


Sep-10 2 45.05 -3 9 -135.15

Oct-10 3 50.6 -2 4 -101.2

Nov-10 4 49.8 -1 1 -49.8

Dec-10 5 49.6 0 0 0

Jan-11 6 42 1 1 42Feb-11 7 43.8 2 4 87.6

Mar-11 8 44.8 3 9 134.4

Apr-11 9 43.55 4 16 174.2

412.9 60 -22.75



Aug-11 42.85Sep-11 42.47

May-11 43.99Jun-11 43.61Jul-11 43.23

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of City Union Bank Ltd for the month of May is predicted

to be 43.99, for the month of June is predicted to be 43.61, for the month of July is predicted to




75/102

CHART XXV

TREND ANALYSIS FOR CITY UNION BANK LTD.

43.99

43.61

43.23

42.85

42.47

41.5

42

42.5

43

43.5

44

44.5


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

TABLE XXVI

This table has the closing stock of Dhanalakshmi Bank Ltd. for the month of August


stock.

TREND ANALYSIS OF DHANALAKSHMI BANK LTD.


1275.3 60 -664.9



76/102


Aug-11 53.05Sep-11 41.97

May-11 86.3Jun-11 75.21Jul-11 64.13

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Dhanalakshmi Bank Ltd for the month of May is




CHART XXVI

TREND ANALYSIS FOR DHANALAKSHMI BANK LTD.

86.375.21

64.13

53.05

41.97

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


S h a r e

P r

i c e s

Month s


77/102

TABLE XXVII

This table has the closing stock of Federal Bank Ltd. for the month of August 2010 to


TREND ANALYSIS OF FEDERAL BANK LTD.

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 340.05 -4 16 -1360.2Sep-10 2 392.1 -3 9 -1176.3Oct-10 3 472 -2 4 -944Nov-10 4 443.45 -1 1 -443.45


3596.25 60 73.1



Aug-11 409.33Sep-11 410.55

May-11 405.68Jun-11 406.9Jul-11 408.12

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Federal Bank Ltd for the month of May is predicted to be 405.68, for the month of June is predicted to be 406.9, for the month of July is predicted to be




78/102

CHART XXVII

TREND ANALYSIS FOR FEDERAL BANK LTD.

405.68

406.9

408.12

409.33

410.55

403

404

405

406

407

408

409

410

411


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

TABLE XXVIII

This table has the closing stock of INGY Vysya Bank Ltd. for the month of August 2010


TREND ANALYSIS OF INGY VYSYA BANK LTD.


Sep-10 2 380.4 -3 9 -1141.2

Oct-10 3 403.95 -2 4 -807.9

Nov-10 4 408.2 -1 1 -408.2

Dec-10 5 368.4 0 0 0

Jan-11 6 302.6 1 1 302.6

Feb-11 7 299.5 2 4 599

Mar-11 8 321.05 3 9 963.15

Apr-11 9 345.8 4 16 1383.2



79/102

Pre dict e d futu re p r iceTre nd fo r futu re month312.06303.92295.79287.65279.52

May-11Jun-11Jul-11

Aug-11Sep-11

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of INGY Vysya Bank Ltd for the month of May is




CHART XXVIII

TREND ANALYSIS FOR INGY VYSYA BANK LTD.

312.06

303.92

295.79

287.65

279.52

260

270

280

290

300

310

320


S h a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s


80/102

TABLE XXIX

This table has the closing stock of Jammu and Kashmir Bank Ltd. for the month of

August 2010 to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of

the stock.

TREND ANALYSIS OF JAMMU AND KASHMIR BANK LTD.

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 769.45 -4 16 -3077.8Sep-10 2 805.2 -3 9 -2415.6Oct-10 3 910.45 -2 4 -1820.9Nov-10 4 839.95 -1 1 -839.95Dec-10 5 782.5 0 0 0Jan-11 6 735.8 1 1 735.8Feb-11 7 755.25 2 4 1510.5Mar-11 8 874 3 9 2622Apr-11 9 807.3 4 16 3229.2


Pre dicte d futu re p r iceTre nd fo r futu re month

Aug-11 801.32Sep-11 800.37

May-11 804.15Jun-11 803.21Jul-11 802.26

InterpretationThe Future price for the shares of Jammu and Kashmir Bank Ltd for the month of May is





81/102

CHART XXIX

TREND ANALYSIS FOR JAMMU AND KASHMIR BANK LTD.

804.15

803.21

802.26

801.32

800.37

798

799

800

801

802

803

804

805


S h

a r e

p r

i c e s

Month s

TABLE XXX

This table has the closing stock of Karnataka Bank Ltd. for the month of August 2010 to


TREND ANALYSIS OF KARNATAKA BANK LTD.

Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 168.95 -4 16 -675.8Sep-10 2 182.6 -3 9 -547.8Oct-10 3 184.35 -2 4 -368.7Nov-10 4 164 -1 1 -164


1325.7 60 -634



82/102


Aug-11 62.77Sep-11 52.2

May-11 94.47Jun-11 83.9Jul-11 73.34

Interpretation

The Future price for the shares of Karnataka Bank Ltd for the month of May is predicted

to be 94.47, for the month of June is predicted to be 83.9, for the month of July is predicted to be

73.34, for the month o

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