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PREDICTIVE SYSTEM FOR
THE TECHNICAL STATE OF
HYDRAULIC TURBINES
Saint-Petersburg, 2020
2
PROBLEMS OF ENERGY EQUIPMENT
• Design lifetime is over • Off-design operation mode
• Increased repair and maintenance costs
E. Parkinson Advanced technologies of works on repair and restoration of objects in
hydropower / / conference " Hydropower. Hydraulic engineering. New developments
and technologies". Reports and speeches. St. Petersburg, Publishing house " VNIIG
them. B. E. Vedeneeva". 2017. Pp. 95-104
3
EQUIPMENT FAILURES
D. Frunzăverdel, S. Muntean, G. Mărginean,
V. Câmpiani, L. Marşavina, R. Terzi,
V. Şerban. Failure analysis of a Francis
turbine runner // IOP Conf. Series: Earth and
Environmental Science. 2010. Vol. 12. P.
012115.
Egusquiza E., Valero C., Xingxing H., Jou E.,
Guardo A., Rodriguez C. Failure investigation of
a large pump-turbine runner // Engineering
Failure Analysis 23 (2012), p. 27-34
Existing solutions DO NOT PREVENT accidents and damage!
Nennemann B., Monette C., Chamberland-Lauzon J.:
Hydrodynamic damping and stiffness prediction in
Francis turbine runners using CFD. IOP Conf. Series:
Earth and Environmental Science 49(7), 072006 (2016),
doi:10.1088/1755-1315/49/7/072006.
в) L70 б) L9
а) L2 г) L88
з) L125 е) L94
ж) L123 д) L91
Рис. 1.1 – Примеры трещин в РО РК
Liu X., Luo Y., Wang Z. A review on fatigue
damage mechanism in hydroturbines // Renewable
and Sustainable Energy Reviews 54 (2016). P. 1–14.
doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.09.025
https://bigpicture.ru/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/s32_2026.jpg
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WHY INDIVIDUAL LIFETIME?
Dynamic stress
Static stress
Stresses for two similar units of one HPP (МРа)
The lifetime of Francis hydraulic
turbine primarily depends on stresses at
runner’s blades.
These images demonstrate that even
the similar units installed near each other
at one HPP have sufficient differences in
the stress states.
Main reasons are:
• deviations from the drawings during
the manufacture
• deviations from the drawings during
installation
• deviations from the welding
technology
• numerous repairs
Only an INDIVIDUAL lifetime assessment can guarantee reliability and safety!
FORECAST TECHNOLOGY
5
Digital model Individual data
Exhausted lifetime
3D sсan
https://test.promgeo.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/10.jpg
Variant calculations
Residual lifetime
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OUR SOLUTION
COMPETITIVE BENEFITS:
• The forecast system for the technical condition
and equipment repairs
• The forecast of the "revenue/costs" ratio for
different scenarios
• Account of individual unit features
• Money-saving due to transition from scheduled
to condition-based maintenance
• Does not require much computer performance
• Does not require high qualification of Customer
staff
Demo Version Link - http://bi.vdi-service.ru:443
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RESULTS
Module of predicting parameters
for operating modes
Peak
mode
Base
mode
Forecast of operating time for
prolongation period until the
next overhaul (7 years)
PowerScenari
o 1
Scenari
o 2
zone 1
(low-efficiency zone)
speed-no-load 3 500 500
up to 40 MW 5 000 3 000
60-80 MW 1 300 600
zone 2 (forbidden
for long-term operation)120-130 MW 50 7
zone 3
(optimal zone)
130-140 MW 120 40
140-160 MW 160 60
160-180 MW 500 300
180-220 MW 1 600 723
220-240 MW 22 000 20 000
120-130 MW 3 000 12 000
Number of start/stop 1 500 200
Module for predicting lifetime
Total operating time for the prognostic period,
hours37 230 37 230
Average operating time per year for the
prognostic period, hours5 319 5 319
Average number of startup and shutdown per
year for the prognostic period, pc.214 29
Forecast of the exhausted lifetime until the next
overhaul97,9% 94,9%
Residual lifetime, years 10,3 32,9
Residual lifetime, years, thousand hours 54,8 175,0
The exhausted and residual lifetime, %
0,00
0,04
0,08
0,12
0,16
Power
The exhausted lifetime
blade
1
blade
2
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CONSUMER BENEFITS
1 Detection of
nonoptimal operating
modes
2 Development of long-
term forecast for
equipment technical
condition
3 Early prediction of
hidden defects in
equipment
4 Lifetime management
for the units due to
combinations of
operating modes
Failure intensity versus time
Failure intensity versus operating modes
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CONSUMER BENEFITS
Won time is more than 9 years!
10
Our contact: +7(812) 812 942-6036 ,
+7(931) 100-1384
www.cdti.ru
e-mail: [email protected], [email protected],
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER –
NIKOLAY V.GEORGIEVSKY
mob.: +7 (921) 923-73-77
